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Demography 1 Introduction.pptx

MBA-Finance at IIUI,Islamabad
Apr. 1, 2023
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Demography 1 Introduction.pptx

  1. Demography and Population Dynamics - Introduction Dr. Farrah Pervaiz MBBS ,MSPH ,PhD Fellow Assistant Professor Dept of Public Health AFPGMI/NUMS
  2. Population Matters…..
  3. Population is a dynamic field. There have been significant changes in birth rates and the population trajectories of countries and continents in recent years.
  4. Everyone is a member of a population, and population factors have an impact on many facets of life—from where we live to the prices we pay for goods and services.
  5. The need for health care preoccupies the political leaders of the industrialized countries whose populations are “aging,” while the need for classrooms, employment opportunities, and housing preoccupies the leaders of countries that are still growing rapidly
  6. Global population is still rising by more than 80 million a year, however, and is most likely to continue rising for the rest of this century unless we take action. World population 8,010,852,265 As of 13th January, 2023 18:00 pm Pakistan current Population 231.4 million (2021)
  7. HOW WE GOT HERE
  8. • Until the time of Napoleon ( Died 1821), there were less than 1 billion people on Earth at any one time. • Since the Second World War, we have been adding a billion people to the global population every 12-15 years. • Our population is more than double today what it was in 1970.
  9. WHERE WE COULD BE GOING NEXT https://populationmatters.org/news/2019/06/un-report-small-change-in- family-size-big-change-in-future-population/
  10. WHERE POPULATION GROWTH WILL OCCUR
  11. WHERE POPULATION GROWTH WILL OCCUR….
  12. WHERE POPULATION GROWTH WILL OCCUR…. • More than half of the people added to the world's population over the rest of the century will be in sub-Saharan Africa. • This is a reflection of four main factors. – First, although it is falling, fertility rate (family size) remains high in most African countries. – Second, sub-Saharan Africa has a very young population - its average age in 2018 is just 18 years old. That means that many people are entering their childbearing years.
  13. WHERE POPULATION GROWTH WILL OCCUR…. – Thirdly, people are living longer in Africa. – Fourthly, people tend to have children young, meaning there are more generations alive at any one time.
  14. WHERE POPULATION GROWTH WILL OCCUR…. • These figures regarding populations of different continents do not reflect any assumptions about future migration, however. • Climate change, poverty and population pressures themselves will lead to a highly mobile global population, with Africa likely to be the largest source of emigrants.
  15. DEMOGRAPHIC THEORIES
  16. DEMOGRAPHIC THEORIES • Malthusian Theory • Marx’ s Theory • Theory of Demographic Transition
  17. T.R. Malthus, 1766-1834 English clergyman, Thomas Robert Malthus, was the first person to draw widespread attention to the two components of natural increase, births and deaths (fertility and mortality).
  18. Malthusian Theory In his Essay on the, ‘ Principle of Population’ initially published in 1798, Malthus postulated that population tended to grow geometrically while the means of subsistence (food) grew only arithmetically
  19. The Malthusian Trap • arithmetic growth (food): 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10… geometric growth (population): 1, 2, 4, 8, 16, 32, 64, 128, 256, 512…
  20. Malthus argued that the difference between geometric and arithmetic growth caused a tension between the growth of population and that of the means of subsistence. -- this gap could not persist indefinitely.
  21. Positive and Preventive Checks • Owing to war, disease, hunger, and vice, mortality would serve as a positive check on population growth. • Preventive checks i.e. birth control through (1) later age at marriage (2) abstinence from sex outside marriage (Malthus opposed artificial methods of birth control on moral grounds. Viewed contraception as a vice)
  22. Criticism of Malthusian Theory of Population The Malthusian theory was criticized based on the following observations: 1. In Western Europe, the population was rising at a rapid rate. At the same time, the food supply had also increased due to technological developments. 2. Many times, food production had increased more than the population. For eg., 2% of the total population is working in the agricultural sector in the US. Still, the total GDP is more than 14 trillion dollars. 3. Malthus’s theory stated that one of the reasons for limited food supply is the non-availability of land. However, the amount of food supply in various countries has increased due to increased globalization. 4. The estimations for the geometric growth of population and arithmetic growth of population were not provided by Malthus. It was stated that the rate of growth is not consistent with Malthus’ theory.
  23. Marx Theory • Karl Marx went one step further and argued that starvation was caused by the unequal distribution of the wealth and its accumulation by capitalists. It has nothing to do with the population • Population is dependent on economic and social organization • The problems of overpopulation and limits to resources, as described by Malthus, are inherent and inevitable features associated with the capitalist system of production
  24. Population Explosion • Contrary to Malthus’s prediction, mortality has not yet risen to curb world population growth. • < 1 billion people in 1800 • 6 billion by the end of the 20th century
  25. Population Explosion…. • Why was Malthus unable to foresee the population explosion (also known as the population bomb)? • He did not recognize the force of the Industrial Revolution, which produced exponential growth in the means of subsistence.
  26. 3 Technological Eras
  27. Estimates of the Current Population • Over 25 %of the world's population is less than 15 years old – The figure is 41 % in least developed countries and 16 percent in more developed countries. • Japan has the oldest population profile, – with over a quarter of its citizens older than 65 – Qatar and the United Arab Emirates are at the other end of the spectrum, with each having only 1 % over 65. • The top 10 fertility rates in the world are in sub-Saharan African countries, – with nearly all above six children per woman, and one topping seven. In Europe, the average is 1.6. • The fertility rate in the United States is 1.8 children per woman, down from 1.9 in 2014. • Thirty-three countries in Europe and Asia already have more people over age 65 than under 15.
  28. Demography Demography—The study of a population in its static and dynamic aspects
  29. Demography… Static aspects include characteristics at a point in time such as composition by: • Age • Sex • Race • Marital status • Economic characteristics
  30. Demography… • Dynamic aspects are: • Fertility • Mortality • Nuptiality ( Marriage) • Migration • Growth
  31. Demography Demography is the scientific study of human populations, primarily with respect to their • Size • Distribution • Structure & • Changes therein
  32. Demography SIZE : Is the number of units (inhabitants) in the population DISTRIBUTION : Is the arrangement of the population at a given time, geographically or among various types of residential areas. STUCTURE : Is the distribution of characteristics such as age, gender groups etc among the population. Additional characteristics of the units such as marital status, occupation educational level, ethnic characteristics, socio economic status etc.
  33. DEFINITION Demography is the "study of human populations in relation to the changes brought about by the interplay of births, deaths, and migration"
  34. DEFINITION… Demography is the "statistical and mathematical study of the size, composition and spatial distribution of human populations, and of the changes over time, in these aspects through the operation of the five processes of fertility, mortality, marriage, migration and social mobility"
  35. Basics of Demography • Adding people – Fertility • Subtracting people – Mortality • Adding and subtracting people – Migration • Composition – Age , gender, race, ethnicity
  36. Demographic Processes • Population size effected by – Fertility – Mortality – Migration • Others – Marriage – Social mobility
  37. Demographic Tools • Count • Rate – Crude – Specific – Standardized • Ratio • Proportion • Constant • Period/ Point measure • Cohort measure
  38. The Tools of Demography 1.Count The absolute number of a population or any demographic event occurring in a specified area in a specified time period. For example,185,446,993 was the total population of Pakistan in 2013
  39. The Tools of Demography… 2. Rate The frequency of demographic events in population during a specified time period (usually a year) divided by the population “at risk” of the event occurring during that time period. Rates tell how common it is for a given event to occur. For example, in 2015 in Pakistan there were-------- births/1000population 26.1births/1,000population
  40. The Tools of Demography… Rate Types • Crude rates • Specific Rates • Standardized rates
  41. The Tools of Demography…
  42. The Tools of Demography… 3. Ratio: • The relation of one population subgroup to the total population or to another subgroup; that is, one subgroup divided by another. • For example, the sex ratio in Pakistan in 2014 was 106 males per 100 females.
  43. The Tools of Demography… Ratio: Examples • Sex ratio at birth (male births per 100 female births) • Child-woman ratio (number of children aged 0 to 4 years divided by the number of women aged 15 to 44 years or 15 to 49 years) • Dependency ratio (population aged under 15 or over 64 divided by the population aged 15 to 64 and multiplied by 100)
  44. The Tools of Demography… 4. Proportion • The relation of a population subgroup to the entire population; that is, a population subgroup divided by the entire population.
  45. The Tools of Demography… 5. Constant An unchanging, arbitrary number (for example, 100 or 1000 or 100000) by which rates, ratios, or proportions can be multiplied to express these measures in a more understandable fashion . (K or Constant)
  46. SOURCES OF DEMOGRAPHIC DATA
  47. Sources of Demographic Data Main Sources • Civil Registration • Censuses • Surveys
  48. Sources of Demographic Data… Other Sources • Notification • Disease Registers • Record Linkage • Epidemiological Surveillence • Other Health Service Records • Environmental Health Data • Population Surveys • Other routine statistics related to health • Non quantifiable information
  49. Civil Registration • Vital registration = civil registration • Relatively modern concept in its present format • Churches have long maintained baptism and burial registries • Provided insight on the demographic situation since the late Middle Ages
  50. Civil Registration… Purpose • Primarily administrative • To collect data on the vital events happening in a population (generally concerned with live births, deaths, marriages and divorces) • Help understand demographic characteristics of different populations at different points in time
  51. Civil Registration… • Essential characteristics – Universality – Continuity • Content – Live birth – Death – Marriage – Divorce
  52. Civil Registration… • Advantages– Continuous monitoring of vital rates • – May provide both numerator and denominator for some rates (e.g., Infant Mortality Rate—IMR) • – Small area data available • – Base for testing the accuracy of censuses and surveys
  53. Civil Registration… • Disadvantages– Uncertain coverage: Difficult to ensure registration of all the events • – Limited background information • – Time reference often inconsistent with denominator definition • – Information may come from third party
  54. Civil Registration… • Disadvantages– Uncertain coverage: Difficult to ensure registration of all the events • – Limited background information • – Time reference often inconsistent with denominator definition • – Information may come from third party
  55. Civil Registration… Personal Identification Number (PIN) • Method used in Israel, South Africa, Sweden, and Thailand • Each individual is assigned a unique number used for the rest of his/her life on all pertinent documents in the national data system • System acts as a census because it is continuously updated by births, deaths, immigrants, and emigrants
  56. Census Definition Process of collecting, compiling and publishing demographic, economic and social data pertaining to a specific time from all persons in a country
  57. Census… • Essential Characteristics • Universality • Simultaneity • Individual enumeration
  58. Census… • History • Modern census– Format emerged gradually around 1600s in Europe • – Quebec 1666 • – England 1841 (first real census) • – 1850 (first time to list individuals in U.S.)
  59. Census… A census contains:– • – Demographic data (e.g. Age ,Sex, Household relationship, Race, • – Economic data (e.g. Income, Occupation, Industry, Class of worker) • – Social data (e.g. Marital status, education(enrollment and attainment), housing, Place of birth, citizenship, Ancestry, Language spoken at home, Migration, Disability, Fertility, Veteran status
  60. Census.. Types of Census DE-FACTO • A person is counted at the place he or she is found at the time of counting DE-JURE • A person is counted at the place of his or her actual residence
  61. Census… Methods • Enumerations – Pre-enumeration – Enumeration – Post-enumeration • Questionnaire
  62. Census… • Data Collection Procedures • Establish administrative tree (census officers, supervisors, enumerators) • Develop questionnaire(s) • Cartography (Mapping) • Define enumeration areas • Pretest enumeration processes • Design data processing system • Enumeration • Post Enumeration (Post-enumeration survey, Demographic evaluation, etc.)
  63. Census… • Advantages – Universal, hence small area data available – National effort – Provides frame for later sample surveys – Provides population denominators • Disadvantages – Size limits content and quality control efforts – Cost limits frequency – Delay between field work and results – Sometimes politicized
  64. Census… Limitations
  65. Census… Uses
  66. Census… Uses (Contd)
  67. Surveys Purpose– Obtain information from a sample representative of some population Content– Varies widely, e.g., fertility, child mortality, migration
  68. Surveys… • Surveys are done to obtain information from a sample representative of some population • Surveys are of a smaller size than a census, which allows for collection of more in-depth information that can then be generalized • There are many types of surveys
  69. Survey… • The sampling method used in surveys is often multistage (e.g., household within cluster, themselves taken within strata) • Surveys are less expensive than censuses and civil registration (smaller size allows for quick collection of more in-depth information than any of the other two systems) • They have advantages and disadvantages
  70. Summary - Data Sources of Population Data • Population censuses: The Most Basic Source – Defacto – Dejure • Registration system – Vital registration (birth, deaths, marriage, divorces) – Population registers – Service statistics (from health and family planning programs) – International migration statistics • Demographic sample surveys
  71. Assignment Presentation ( Internal Assessment) • Group 1: PDHS Survey 2017-18 ( Methodology) • Group 2: PDHS Survey 2017-18 ( Section 2-3) • Group 3: PDHS Survey 2017-18 ( Section 4-7) • Group 4: PDHS Survey 2017-18 ( Section 5-11) • Group 5: PDHS Survey 2017-18 ( Section 12-17)
  72. THANK YOU!

Editor's Notes

  1. The demographic dividend is the economic growth potential that can result from shifts in a population's age structure, mainly when the share of the working-age population (15 to 64) is larger than the non-working-age share of the population (14 and younger, and 65 and older).
  2. https://populationmatters.org/news/2019/06/un-report-small-change-in-family-size-big-change-in-future-population/
  3. Every two years, the United Nations makes projections for future population growth. In 2017, its main, "median" projection was a population of 9.8bn in 2050 and 11.2bn in 2100. Because many factors affect population growth, it makes a range of projections depending on different assumptions. Within its 95% certainty range, the difference in population in 2100 from the highest to lowest projection is almost 4bn people - more than half the population we have today. The second graph above shows the UN's projected population if, on average, there was half-a-child less or half-a-child more per family than in the median projection. The new median projection estimates a global population of 9.7 billion people in 2050 and 10.9 billion by 2100, whereas 2017 estimates were 9.8 bn and 11.2 billion, respectively. The median or “medium variant” projection assumes global fertility will fall from just under 2.5 births per woman in 2019 to around 2.2 in 2050 and further to 1.9 in 2100. If every other family had one fewer child than the median projection, there would be 8.9 bn by 2050 and our population would decline to 7.3 bn people by 2100 – a smaller population than today. Conversely, if every other family had one child more than the median projection, there would be 10.6 bn by 2050 and as many as 15.6 bn by 2100. The fastest growth is occurring in sub-Saharan Africa, where the population is expected to double by 2050. Europe and Northern America will see the smallest proportional increase (2%). Nine countries will make up over half the projected total increase by 2050: India, Nigeria, Pakistan, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Ethiopia, Tanzania, Indonesia, Egypt and USA. Around 2027, India is expected to overtake China as the world’s most populous country. The global fertility rate (the average number of children per woman) is continuing to decrease, with almost half of all people living in a country or area where the number of children born per woman is below 2.1, the ‘replacement rate’. Replacement rate: the average number of children needed per woman to achieve a stable population (no increase or decrease). The figure is slightly higher than 2 to account for infant and child mortality.
  4. In several developing regions, declining fertility rate has led to a proportionally greater working age cohort, helping to boost economic growth. Despite progress, many countries are still struggling with high fertility rates and Sub-Saharan Africa is disproportionately affected, with an average of 4.6 children per woman. Rapid population growth and its causes continue to pose a major impediment to achieving the Sustainable Development Goals, in particular eradicating hunger and poverty, achieving gender equality, and improving health and education. 55 countries are projected to experience a population reduction by 2050. China’s population, for example, is projected to decrease by 2.2% or 31.4 million. In 2018, for the first time in history, there were more people aged 65 or above than children under five. The global population will continue to age as an inevitable side effect of decreasing fertility. Governments need to prepare for the economic and social challenges this may bring. This shows the enormous difference in total numbers that arise from just very small variations in family size. If we can achieve that modest reduction in number of children born, we will have more than 3bn people fewer by 2100 - a lower population than we have today. According to new UN data, the world’s population is projected to grow by more than 3 billion people by the end of the century, increasing from the current 7.7 bn to 10.9 bn. As in previous years, the data show that small changes in family size translate into a difference of several billion people by the end of the century – just half a child less per couple would see our population peak well before 2100 before declining to 7.3 bn.
  5. Malthusian Theory of Population The Malthusian Theory of Population is the theory of exponential population and arithmetic food supply growth. The theory was proposed by Thomas Robert Malthus. He believed that a balance between population growth and food supply can be established through preventive and positive checks. Major Elements of the Malthusian Theory Population and Food Supply The Malthusian theory explained that the population grows in a geometrical fashion. The population would double in 25 years at this rate. However, the food supply grows in an arithmetic progression. Food supply increases at a slower rate than the population. That is, the food supply will be limited in a few years. The shortage of food supply indicates an increasing population. Checks on Population When the increasing population rate is greater than the food supply, disequilibrium exists. As a result, people will not get enough food even for survival. People will die due to a lack of food supply. Adversities such as epidemics, wars, starvation, famines and other natural calamities will crop up which are named as positive checks by Malthus. On the contrary, there are man-made checks known as preventive checks. Positive Checks Nature has its own ways of keeping a check on the increasing population. It brings the population level to the level of the available food supply. The positive checks include famines, earthquakes, floods, epidemics, wars, etc. Nature plays up when the population growth goes out of hand. Preventive Checks Preventive measures such as late marriage, self-control, and simple living, help to balance the population growth and food supply. These measures not only check the population growth, but can also prevent the catastrophic effects of the positive checks. Also read: Organisms and Population Attributes Criticism of Malthusian Theory of Population The Malthusian theory was criticised based on the following observations: In Western Europe, the population was rising at a rapid rate. At the same time, the food supply had also increased due to technological developments. Many times, food production had increased more than the population. For eg., 2% of the total population is working in the agricultural sector in the US. Still, the total GDP is more than 14 trillion dollars. Malthus’s theory stated that one of the reasons for limited food supply is the non-availability of land. However, the amount of food supply in various countries has increased due to increased globalization. The estimations for the geometric growth of population and arithmetic growth of population were not provided by Malthus. It was stated that the rate of growth is not consistent with Malthus’ theory.
  6. The graph below illustrates the difference between geometric and arithmetic progression. Arithmetic progression means that a quantity increases linearly as time proceeds; geometric progression means that it increases as the square of time. Malthus' theory claims that populations always tend to increase in geometric progression, while the means of subsistence increase in arithmetic progression. Population growth is then limited through shortage of subsistence.
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