This document discusses population control and its impact on health based on current and future scenarios. It defines key terms related to population and provides statistics on world population growth trends. The document notes that while population growth rates are declining in some areas, rapid population growth in developing nations is putting pressure on limited resources and contributing to issues like environmental degradation, unemployment, and indoor/outdoor air pollution. It emphasizes the need for family planning strategies like increasing access to contraceptives, educating women, and delaying marriages and first pregnancies to help control population growth in a sustainable manner.

1. Dr. Ankit Chaudhary
Resident
Community Medicine
IGMC Shimla
Population Control: Impact on Health
(Current & Future Scenario)
8/20/2018
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2. Layout…..
 Few defintions
 Understanding the situation
 Factors & Causes of rapid growth
 Statistics & Trends
 Aftermaths of rapid growth
 Startegies for future
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3. Definitions…..
 Population: No. of all organisms of same group/species, living in
a particular geographical area & have capability of interbreeding
(Oxford)
 Collection of humans (Sociology)
 Demography: Scientific study of human population
i. Change in size ii. Composition iii. Distribution
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4.  Population growth: Increase in population over a period
Rapid growth: 1-1.5% AGR 47-70 yrs
Very rapid growth: 1.5-2.0 AGR 35-47 yrs
Explosive growth: > 2.0 AGR <35 yrs
 Population control: Practice of artificially altering size of a
population; act of limiting size so that it remains manageable
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5. Understanding the situation…..
 Population till 1825 ≈ 1 billion, reached 2 billion in next 100 years
 Reached 3 billion mark in next 35 years only
 Next billions in just 15 & 12 years respectively
 6 billion just before 2000 and 7 billion in 2011
 And now it is around 7.4 billion
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6. Factors affecting population growth…..
Natality
• Refers to the birth rate
Mortality
• Refers to the death rate
Migration
• Refers to both Immigration & Emigration
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7. Causes of Rapid Population Growth…..
Improved Health services
Conquest of diseases
Advances in Medical Science
Lesser natural calamities like famines
Spread of Education
Impact of National Health Programmes
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8. Demographic Cycle…..
Examples Few remote grps Egypt, kenya India Brazil UK France Belgiu Germany Hungary
Birth rate High High Falling Low Very Low
Death Rate High Begins Falling Declines further low low
Natural ↑ Stable/slow ↑ Very rapid ↑ Slows down Stable/slow ↑ Slow ↓
BR reasons No FP, ↑ children for farming, Religeon Education, Health FP, Good health, Women status Del.Mrg
DR reasons Disease, Famine Improved medical Care, Sanitation Good health care, Reliable food supply
Stage High stationary Early expanding Late expanding Late stationary Declining
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9. Population Momentum…..
 Imbalance b/w birth & death rates is pronounced in developing
countries experiencing population momentum
 When large proportion of population is of childbearing age
 Even if fertility rate in developing countries reaches replacement
level; for several decades the absolute numbers of people being
born still will exceed the numbers of people dying
 Additional fertility is not due to women having more babies but
more younger women having babies
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10. World Population…..
Population Reference Bureau, 2016 World Population Data Sheet 8/20/2018
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11. Region Specific Statistics…..
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
Africa Northern
America
Latin America &
Caribbean
Asia Europe Oceania
1203
360
637
4437
740
40
1681
401
716
4946
744
51
2527
445
775
5327
728
66
2016
2030
2050
Population in millions
Population Reference Bureau, 2016 World Population Data Sheet 8/20/2018
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12. Fertility Rate Trend World…..
5.0
4.5
4.0
3.5
3.0
2.5
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
World Bank, January 2017 8/20/2018
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13. Fertility Rates…..
4.7
1.8
2.1
2.1
1.6
2.3
0 1 2 3 4 5
Africa
Northern
America
Latin America &
Caribbean
Asia
Europe
Oceania
Population Reference Bureau, 2016 World Population Data Sheet 8/20/2018
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14. Current Birth Rate…..
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Population Reference Bureau, 2016 World Population Data Sheet

15. World Population….current & projected
Population Reference Bureau, 2016 World Population Data Sheet 8/20/2018
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16. World Population Growth…..
World Bank, January 2017
2.2
2.1
2.0
1.9
1.8
1.7
1.6
1.5
1.4
1.3
1.2
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
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17. Statistics at different levels…..
S.No. Indicator World India Himachal Pradesh
1. Population 2016 7,418 Mi 1,329 Mi 6.9 Mi
2. Population 2030 8,539 Mi 1,530 Mi
3. Population 2050 9,869 Mi 1708 Mi
4. Birth rate/1000 20 22 16.4
5. Death rate/1000 08 07 6.7
6. IMR 36 40 34
7. TFR 2.5 2.3 1.9
8. Age<15 (%) 26 29 24.6
9. Age>65 (%) 08 06
10. Urban (%) 54 33 10.03
11. 15-49 F using cont. 62% 54% 57%
Population Reference Bureau, 2016 NFHS-4 Statistical Abstract 2015-16, Govt. of H.P8/20/2018
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18. Decadal Population India…..
238.4 252.09 251.32
278.98
318.16
361.09
439.23
548.16
683.33
846.42
1028.74
1210.19
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1901 1911 1921 1931 1941 1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011
Populationinmillions
Year
Census of India 8/20/2018
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19. Fertility Rate Trend India…..
6.0
5.5
5.0
4.5
4.0
3.5
3.0
2.5
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
World Bank, January 2017 8/20/2018
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20. India Population Growth…..
World Bank, January 2017
2.4
2.2
2.0
1.8
1.6
1.4
1.2
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
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21. Decadal Population Himachal Pradesh…..
1920294 1896944 1928206 2029113
2263245
2385981
2812463
3460434
4280818
5170877
6077900
6864602
0
1000000
2000000
3000000
4000000
5000000
6000000
7000000
8000000
1901 1911 1921 1931 1941 1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011
Population
Year
Statistical Abstract 2015-16, Govt. of H.P. 8/20/2018
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22. Decadal Growth Rate Himachal Pradesh…..
1911 1921 1931 1941 1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011
Statistical Abstract, Govt. of H.P
-1.22
1.65
5.23
11.54
5.42
17.87
23.04
23.71
20.79
17.54
12.94
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
1911 1921 1931 1941 1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011
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23. Population estimates World…..
UN World Population Prospects, 2015 8/20/2018
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24. Life Expectancy at Birth India…..
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32.45
41.89
46.4
54.1
59.7
63.9 64
31.66
40.55
44.7
54.7
60.9
66.9 67
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Male
Female
1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011
Census of India

25. Literacy rates India…..
8/20/2018
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18.33
28.3
34.45
43.57
52.21
65.38
74.04
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011
%ageofliterates
Census of India

26. Sex Ratio India…..
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900
910
920
930
940
950
960
970
980
972
964
955
950
945 946
941
930
934
927
933
943
1901 1911 1921 1931 1941 1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011

27. Other Indicator Trends…..
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 Per capita income ↑↑
From Rs. 94,178 (2015-16) to Rs. 103,818 (2016-17)
 Average marriage age ↑↑; 22.3 years
 Reduction of IMR/MMR
 Improved Immunization coverage, Nutritional status

28. Why population control…..
 India though 1st nation with a control policy; not achieved much
 Population is only non-depleting resource/parameter of
country's development. In India factors for population growth
outweigh development; no longer a resource rather a burden
 Intense resources crisis; furious competition for limited natural
resources; quarrels among states /communities/ families
 Exploitation of resources threatens forests/ nature reserves;
Overuse of resources contributing to frequent natural disasters
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29. Aftermaths of Over-population…..
 Absorbs National Income & lowers the standard of living
 Unemployment → poverty
 Lower literacy levels
 Insuficient arable land; food scarcity
 Directly threatens maternal & child health
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30.  Environmental degradation/Deforestation
 People stealing resources to survive → ↑↑ crime rates
 Habitat used for farming/settlements → Flora/faunna extinction
 Mining/Construction/Industrial Pollution
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31.  More fuel/electricity consumption: High CO2 emission
 Malnutrition/High prevalence of communicable diseases
 Lack of environmental sanitation/ Non availabilty of fresh water
 Lack of medical care facilities
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32. Indoor Air Pollution…..
 ≈ 3 billion people cook & heat their homes using open fires &
stoves burning biomass & coal
 >> 4 million people die prematurely; illness due to household air
pollution from cooking with solid fuels
 >> 50% of premature deaths due to pneumonia among U-5
children are caused by soot inhaled from indoor air pollution
 3.8 million premature deaths/yr from non communicable
diseases including CVA, IHD, COPD & lung Ca are attributed to
household air pollution
WHO Household pollution & Health, 2016 8/20/2018
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33. Outdoor Air Pollution…..
 In 2014, 92% of the world population was living in places where
the WHO air quality guidelines levels were not met
 Ambient (outdoor air pollution) in both cities & rural areas was
estimated to cause 3 million premature deaths worldwide (2012)
 88% of those premature deaths occurred in LMIC; greatest
number in the WHO Western Pacific and South-East Asia regions
WHO Ambient Air Quality & Health, 2016 8/20/2018
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34. CO2 Emission Trends…..
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
World China US India
25.8
3.7
5.9
1.1
33.9
9.1
5.5
1.9
36.2
10.7
5.2
2.5
2000
2010
2015
1Unit = 1 billion ton
Trends in global CO2 emissions: 2016 Report 8/20/2018
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35. Inaction will lead to…..
 Threaten water, food & energy security
 Jeopardize economic growth, social progress & social security
 Negatively affect health & life expectancy
 Undermine a capacity to mitigate and adapt to climate change
 Encourage displacement and migration
 Heighten the risk of political instability and conflict
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36. Strategies for future…..
 Modifiation in FP policy; has to be done very quickly as time is
running out
 Special benefits to poor families having one child
 Families having a girl child: vocational/financial benefits
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 Discourage/prevent early marriages; though average age at
marriage is increasing , marriages at young ages are still common
 Encourage delaying 1st pregnancy by 2-3 years after marriage &
delaying further pregnancies; demands easy availability of
contraceptives
 Increase availability of contraceptives for spacing births

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 Strengthen FP services so that people get complete knowledge
of possible contraceptive methods; Anganwadis in rural areas are
ideal places for such efforts
 Need to think contraceptive needs beyond marriage; Sphere of
contraceptives for FP/infection prevention is too small to
accommodate changing contraceptives requirement for people
not in marriage
 If at all incentives have to be given, should go to people availing
services & never to bureaucrats in any form

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 Monitor quality of FP through a set of quality parameters, as
opposed to counting sterilization numbers
 Female education/empowerment is best contraceptive; These
issues must be emphasised in programs designed for rural areas
 Motivate men to get involved in FP; Men can play a vital role in
propagation of awareness. A good suggestion is to engage male
volunteers to operate alongside ASHAs to work with men

40.  Identify subpopulations contributing most to environmental
degradation & those that are most vulnerable to consequences
 Facilitate inevitable trend of urbanization in ways to ensure so
that environmental hazards & vulnerabilities are under control
 Invest in human capita i.e. Education & health (RCH) to slow
population growth & accelerate transition to green technologies
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41.  Public /private sectors must switch to new, resource efficient
consumption/production patterns focussing on water-energy-
food climate intersections and their link to population trends
 Appropriate policies, public/private partnerships & new business
models can achieve necessary technological innovation,
investment & policy change
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42. References…..
 Population Reference Bureau 2016, world population data sheet with a
special focus on human needs and sustainable resources
 Statistical abstract of Himachal Pradesh 2015-16, Department of
Economics and Statistics Government of HP Shimla
 National Family Health Survey – 4, 2015 -16
 World Population Prospects: The 2015 Revision, United Nations
 World Bank Demographic data, 2017
 Census of India, 2011
 Census 2011, Himachal Pradesh
 World population trends, United Nations Population Fund
 World population data 2016, PRB
 WHO demography statistics
 K.Park, 24th edition
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43. Thank you…..!!!!!
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