1. The document discusses the main challenges facing the global meat production system over the next 20 years. It notes that while food production has generally kept pace with population growth, issues around food distribution, hunger, and environmental sustainability remain. 2. Key trends that will shape the meat industry include population and economic growth, urbanization, constraints on land and water resources, and increasing demands for health, food safety, and animal welfare. Global meat production, especially of poultry and pork, will need to increase substantially to meet these demands. 3. Major meat importing and exporting countries are identified. Brazil is projected to be the largest meat exporter by 2019 due to strong growth in beef, poultry, and pork

1. Luciano Roppa DVM Meat production: main challenges in the next 20 years

2. Actually, the food system continues to provide plentiful and affordable food for the majority of the world’s population …

4. … but, we are failing in three major ways which demand decisive action:

5. 0,9 Billion Underfed 1 - Food is unevenly distributed around the world 1,3 Billion Overweight Source: WHO (World Health Organization), 2009.

6. … money is unevenly distributed around the world 43 percent of the World’s Population lives on less than US$2/day GDP distribution Population GDP

7. GERMANY: The MELANDER family: 2 adults and 2 teenagers Food expenditure for one week: 500 Dollars Source: Hungry Planet: What the World Eats

8. CHAD: The ABOUBAKAR family of Breidjing Camp: 3 adults and 3 kids Food expenditure for one week: 1,20 Dollars Source: Hungry Planet: What the World Eats

9. 2 - Hunger remains widespread: 925 million people don’t have access to sufficient macronutrients (proteins & carbohydrates) Source: FAO

10. 3 - Many systems of food production are unsustainab le Environment degradation, destruction of biodiversity and climate change

11. The global food system will experience an unprecedented confluence of pressures over the next 20 years ...

12. Let’s have a look at the Mega Trends that will affect meat production in the next 20 years …

13. 1,2 billion more people in 20 years 85% living in developing countries Source: OECD/FAO 1

14. Source: United Nations, DESA, 2005 It will be a population with more aged people From 0,8 billion people with more than 60 years old today, to 1,5 billion in 2030 2

15. More people will be living in the cities From actual 3,3 billion people today to 4,9 billion in 2030 Source: UN World Urbanization Prospects report, 2005 3

16. Do we have enough crop land? 2010 to 2050: Growth in crop yields will continue to be the mainstay of crop production growth. 4 Yields Crop intensity Area expansion World 77 % 14 % 9 % Developing countries 71 % 8 % 21 %

17. Do we have enough Water? 5

18. Water scarcity is a global phenomenon, mostly affecting those areas most dependent on agriculture Areas of water scarcity 1) International Water Management Institute (IWMI) Source: FAO Agriculture employs 58-62% of population and represents 12-18% of GDP Agriculture employs 2-4% of population and represents 2% of GDP Agriculture employs 20% of population and represents 6% of GDP

19. Source: FAO data Purchasing power will grow 35% in the next 20 years From actual USD 6,100 per capita to USD 8,290 6

20. China and India middle class will grow from 200 milli on people in each country today, to more than 800 million in each country by 2030 40 % of the world’s population now lives in countries with economies that are growing at 8 % annually . 7

21. Source: FAO data Food quality will improve From actual 2,800 Kcal available/person/day to 3,040 in 2030 8

22. Kilocalories consumption per capita (Kcal/day) 3800 2850 3400 2450 2650 3200 … but, unevenly distributed around the world …

23. Mix of animal protein consumption is changing towards cheaper, low-fat meats 9

24. Consumption patterns are more and more driven by the notion of health and wellness 10

25. Food safety requirements are increasing driven by consumer sensitivity and regulations … 11

26. … but, still a lot of work to do …

27. Source: Projections of Global Meat Production Through 2050 , Thomas E. Elam Meat consumption per capita will grow from actual 43 kg to 55 kg in 2030 Due to purchasing power growth 12

28. Consumption will grow more in Developing countries due to purchasing power increase 13 Meat Consumption growth 2009-19 (kg/person) OECD countries NON OECD countries 2009 2019 2009 2019 PORK 23,3 23,5 9,2 10,8 POULTRY 25,8 27,9 8,7 10,4 BEEF 15,0 15,0 4,7 5,1 SHEEP 1,7 1,4 1,6 1,8 TOTAL 66,1 68,4 24,2 28,1 Growth 3,5 % 16,1 %

30. How much Meat will we have to produce in the next 10 years?

31. Meat production growth by species, 2010 to 2019 Source: L. Roppa, 2010 - Based: OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2010-2019. Beef Pork Poultry Sheep Total meat Human population 2007- 09 65,2 102,5 91,2 12,5 271,5 6,600 2019 74,6 126,6 117,8 15,4 334,5 7,670 Growth,% 14,4 23,3 29,2 23,3 23,2 16,2

32. Meat production growth by country, 2010 to 2019 (MMT) 4,7 33,2 Source : “OCDE-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2010-2019”, June 2010 Elaboration : Luciano Roppa, June 2010 2007-09 2019 growth% Quantity World 271,5 334,5 23,2 63,0 EU 27 42,06 42,24 0,4 0,18 USA 40,38 44,90 11,2 4,52 China 66,58 89,63 34,6 23,05 Brazil 23,67 31,52 33,2 7,85 Russia 5,64 7,92 40,4 2,28

33. Poultry meat production growth, 2010 to 2019 (MMT) Source : “OCDE-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2010-2019”, June 2010 Elaboration : Luciano Roppa, June 2010 2007-09 2019 Increase, % World 91,22 117,85 29,2 1 - USA 18,90 21,28 12,6 2 - China 14,95 20,61 37,8 3 -Brazil 11, 48 16,71 45,5 4 - EU 27 11,53 11,84 2,7 5 - India 2,50 3,91 56,4

34. Beef Cattle production growth, 2010 to 2019 (MMT) Source : “OCDE-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2010-2019”, June 2010 Elaboration : Luciano Roppa, June 2010 2007-09 2019 Increase, % World 65,22 74,64 14,4 1 - USA 11,46 12,05 5,1 2 - Brazil 9,16 11,15 21,7 3 - EU 27 8,08 7,30 - 9,6 4 - China 6,01 6,72 11,8 5 - India 2,92 3,65 25,0

35. Pig meat production growth, 2010 to 2019 (MMT) Source : “OCDE-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2010-2019”, June 2010 Elaboration : Luciano Roppa, June 2010 2007-09 2019 Increase, % World 102,54 126,65 23,5 1 - China 45,62 62,30 36,5 2 - EU 27 22,45 23,09 2,8 3 - USA 10,02 11,56 15,3 4 - Brazil 3,03 3,66 20,8 5 - Russia 1,93 2.62 35,7

36. Milk production growth, 2010 to 2019 (MMT) Source : “OCDE-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2010-2019”, June 2010 Elaboration : Luciano Roppa, June 2010 2007-09 2019 Increase, % World 677,45 848,50 25,2 1 - UE 27 147,37 151,06 2,5 2 - India 105,83 147,95 39,8 3 - USA 85,39 95,38 11,7 4 - Pakistan 35,26 58,59 66,1 5 - China 36,85 56,97 54,6

37. Who would import more meat in the next 10 years? Main meat importers, 2019 (million MT) Source : “OCDE-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2010-2019”, June 2010 Elaboration : Luciano Roppa, June 2010 Beef Poultry Pork Total USA 1,515 0,040 0,574 2,129 Japan 0,720 0,234 1,150 2,104 Mexico 0,383 0,998 0,520 1,901 EU-27 0,643 1,210 0,040 1,893 Russia 0,558 0,548 0,248 1,354

38. Who would be able to export more meat in the near future (2019)? Main meat exporters, 2019 (million MT) Source : “OCDE-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2010-2019”, June 2010 Elaboration : Luciano Roppa, June 2010 Beef & Veal Pork Poultry Total Brazil 2,556 0,706 5,972 9,234 USA 1,145 2,788 3,096 7,029 EU-27 0,032 1,009 0,895 1,936 Canada 0,519 1,182 0,190 1,891 World 8,845 6,647 13,175 28,667

39. Are you, as a Leader, ready for these changes?

40. Email: [email_address] Address: Rua Araca, 567 Alphaville 13.098-379 Campinas Brazil L. Roppa Consulting