Prepared by Johan Swinnen, International Food Policy Research Institute & CGIAR, Kigali, Rwanda, May 2022.

1. Johan Swinnen
International Food Policy Research Institute
& CGIAR
Kigali, Rwanda
May 2022
Global Food Security
During Food and Energy (CCC) Crises

2. From June 2013 …

3. 12.6
8.6
825.6
628.9
400
500
600
700
800
900
8
10
12
14
16
18
Millions
Percentage
Tow a rds the en d
of hu n ger … ?
From June 2013 …

4. Tow a rds the en d
of hu n ger … ?
After June 2013 …
12.4
8.3 8.4
9.9
810.7
606.9
650.3
768.0
400
450
500
550
600
650
700
750
800
850
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
Prevalence of undernourishment (%)
Number of people undernourished (millions)

5. Source: FAO 2020; IFPRI 2021
The world is not on track to eliminate hunger …
and more challenges for food systems
12.4
8.3 8.4
9.9
810.7
606.9
650.3
768.0
400
450
500
550
600
650
700
750
800
850
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
Prevalence of undernourishment (%)
Number of people undernourished (millions)
Prevalence and number of undernourished worldwide

6. 8.3 8.3 9.6 10.1 11.9
17.7 19.8 20.6 21.9
25.9
7.7 6.9 8.6 9 10.2 7.7 9 9.6 10.1
14.2
1.4 1.3 1 1 1.4
14.3 15.3
16.3 16.5
18.5
29.6
31.1 32
32.3
33.7
11.5 12
13.6 13.7
15.7
17.2
22.3 22 21.9
26.7
7.9 7.5 6.6 6.6 7.4
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70 2014
2016
2018
2019
2020
2014
2016
2018
2019
2020
2014
2016
2018
2019
2020
2014
2016
2018
2019
2020
2014
2016
2018
2019
2020
World Africa Asia Latin American and the
Caribbean
Northern America and
Europe
Severe food insecurity Moderate food insecurity
Regional differences in food security
Source: FAO
Millions of people facing severe and moderate food insecurity by region

7. Source: Popkin et al. 2020
Countries with both undernutrition and overweight, 2010
Coexistence of undernutrition, micronutrient deficiencies, and
overweight and obesity
Triple burden of malnutrition
Source: Ruel 2019, Leroy 2019, Van Wesenbeeck et al. 2018
• 3 billion people cannot afford
a healthy diet
• 2 billion people have
micronutrient deficiencies
• 2 billion people are
overweight or obese
• A third of LMI countries face
undernutrition and obesity

8. Food system pressures planetary boundaries
Climate change reinforces this
4
6
2
8
1
1
14
5
11
3
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Energy
consumption (%)
GHG emissions
(%)
Share
of
global
total
(%)
Retail and food preparation
Processing and distribution
Fisheries production
Livestock production
Cropping production
Source: EAT-Lancet Report 2019
The global food system
consumes >30% of energy and
produces >20% of GHG emissions

9. Economic growth and food security
Source: World Bank 2020
GDP growth per capita (annual %)
-4.0
-2.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
Low & middle income Sub-Saharan Africa
Prevalence and number of undernourished worldwide
Source: FAO 2020
12.4
8.3 8.4
9.9
810.7
606.9
650.3
768.0
400
450
500
550
600
650
700
750
800
850
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
Prevalence of undernourishment (%)
Number of people undernourished (millions)

10. Source: Our World in Data-Hadley Centre 2020
Prevalence and number of undernourished worldwide
Source: FAO 2020
Climate change and food security
Average global temperature anomaly
12.4
8.3 8.4
9.9
810.7
606.9
650.3
768.0
400
450
500
550
600
650
700
750
800
850
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
Prevalence of undernourishment (%)
Number of people undernourished (millions)

11. Conflict and food security
Forcibly displaced people worldwide
Prevalence and number of undernourished worldwide
Source: FAO 2020 Source: UNHCR 2019, 2020
12.4
8.3 8.4
9.9
810.7
606.9
650.3
768.0
400
450
500
550
600
650
700
750
800
850
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
Prevalence of undernourishment (%)
Number of people undernourished (millions)

12. CCC (Conflict, Climate, Covid) and Food Crises
Source: Global Report on Food Crisis 2021, FSIN, GRFC May 2021
Over 155 million people across 50 countries
experiences a food crisis or worse (IPC/CH Phase
3 or above) in 2020
Conflict was the primary driver of food crisis in
2020 even accounting for economic effects of
COVID-19
However, the causes of food crisis are often
closely interlinked

13. COVID-19 impacts on global poverty and nutrition
Source: Laborde, Martin and Vos, 2020
Impact on Global POVERTY Impact on Global NUTRITION
149.7
50.5
72.5
20%
15%
27%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
World Sub-Saharan
Africa
South Asia
Percentage
change
poor
(%)
Change
number
of
poor
(millions)
Change in No. of Poor (millions) Change in %

14. 50
26.7 27.5
Poorest Middle Richest
Poor people suffer more
from INCOME declines
Poor people suffer more from
NUTRITION effects
30.8
60.8
71.7
20.8
44.2
69.2
Poorest Middle Richest
Jan-Feb May
COVID-19 impacts on inequality in food systems
Survey results from Ethiopia
Source: Hirvonen et al. 2020; Tesfaye et al. 2020.
% of households consuming dairy products, 2020
% of households that have much lower incomes, 2020

15. Source: Reardon and Swinnen, 2020.
 Heterogeneity:
 Global -- local
 Labor -- capital intensity
 Large -- small-scale
 Short -- long run
 Staples -- perishables
 Many innovations to
overcome restrictions
 E.g. Digital growth :
e-commerce & ICT
solutions like FoodPanda
 Cloud Kitchens, Meituan
Restructuring supply chains and food systems
Source: Reuters, 2020.

16. Source: IFPRI and MSU, 2020
 Despite disruptions,
food supply chains
adjusted relatively
well to meet demand
 Household income
and job loss were
most severe impact
Supply disruptions versus income and employment
Survey evidence from Myanmar

17. COVID-19 impacts : Rural vs Urban
Atul Loke / Panos Pictures
13.3
16.7
12.2
12.6
16.8
10.7
14.0
16.5
15.0
Indonesia Ghana Nigeria
National Rural Urban
Source: Amewu et al. 2020; Baulch et al. 2020; Diao et al. 2020; Pradesha et al. 2020; Thurlow, 2020.
-38%
-18%
-14%
-29%
-92%
Changes in GDP along the
Value Chain (%) in Indonesia
Total AgriFood Farming Processing Services
Increase in Poverty
(% points – average per month of lockdown)

18. https://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/foodpricesindex/en/
Fo o d p rice s w e re h ig h (a n d st o ck s lo w (e r))
b e fo re w a r in Uk ra in e

19. https://www.ifpri.org/blog/how-will-russias-invasion-ukraine-affect-global-food-security
Russia
5.8%
Global
Market
Share in
Calories
Ukraine
6%
Global
Market
Share in
Calories
Ru ssia a n d Uk ra in e a re k e y p la ye rs in g lo b a l
m a rk e t s fo r ce re a ls & su n flo w e r/o il

20. Ukraine-Russia war immediate food impact

21. Longer term effects:
Input prices and the next harvests

22. High prices may be more challenging now
Price shocks “the new normal’ ?
• The poor are still
recovering from
COVID crisis
• Hunger and
malnutrition were
on the rise
• Cash strapped
governments have
little room to
maneuver
• It is unclear how
long current
challenges will
persist
Source: Headey and Hirvonen IFPRI Blog March, 2022

23. • Measures to limit the frequency and
magnitude of shocks.
• Measures to be informed and anticipate the
shock
• Measures to absorb the shock
Resilience and inclusion are intrinsically linked
Shocks and Volatility :
How to enhance resilience and inclusion ?

24. 0
5
10
15
20
25
30
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
Week of the year
Ukraine Crisis [2022] Covid-19 [2020] Food Price Crisis [2008]
Exp o rt re st rict io n s t h re a t e n fo o d se cu rit y
Source: Laborde et al. 2022
Number of countries implementing food export
restrictions

25. What is more important for food price effects ?
Commodity, Fertilizer or Oil Prices ?
Source: Barrett, Reardon, Swinnen, Zilberman, JEL, 2022
Share of agriculture in food prices in USA
Yi et al. (2020) : coverage of 90 percent of the global economy,
incl all large LMICs : farm share of food expenditures = 27 % on
average in 2015

26. IFPRI’s analysis and outreach
Media
Policy
makers
NGO’s
Acade
mia

27. IFPRI’s trackers and dashboards
www.ifpri.org
• Food and Fertilizer Export
Restrictions Tracker
• Excessive Food Price Volatility
Early Warning System
• Staple Food Stock-Use Monitoring
System
• Vulnerability Dashboard
• Fertilizer Market Dashboard

28. IFP RI’s Glo b a l Fo o d P o licy Re p o rt 20 22:
Clim a t e Ch a n g e a n d Fo o d Syst e m s
• Food systems must transform to mitigate GHG
emissions and adapt to climate challenges
• Innovation and change require an enabling
environment of supportive policies and institutions
• The GFPR provides actionable analysis on climate
challenges and solutions grounded in research:
o Investments in R&D for innovation
o Improved governance of resources
o Healthier diets and more sustainable production
o Stronger value chains
o Inclusion and social protection
o Climate smart finance
Report Webpage:
https://gfpr.ifpri.info/

29. Thank you.