Malthusian theory of population growth and world human population growth pattern through human history

1. Malthus theory of population growth and world
human population growth pattern through
human History
1
Prepared by-
Jintu Kumar Bania
Roll no- 10
M.Sc. 4th semester
Submitted to-
Prof. D. C. Ray
Department of ecology and environmental
science

2. Introduction
 In biology or human geography, human
population growth is the increase in the
number of individual in the population.
 Human population is increasing drastically
from past few decades.
 The human population of the world was 1
billion in 1800 AD and which touched 7.6
billion in 2018 AD.
 The high population is putting strain on the
natural resources available, food supply, job
housing etc.
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3. Malthusian theory
 This theory was given by an English economist “Thomas
Robert Malthus”.
 Thomas Robert Malthus propounded this theory in his
book, ”An Essay on the principle of population”.
 Thomas Malthus predicted in 1798 that the population
would grow at Geometric rate (1:2:4:8:16…) while the
food production will increases in the Arithmetic rate
(1:2:3:4:5:6…).
 His concern was prompted by the rapid increase in
population that began with the onset of the industrial
revolution.
 According to Malthus, population growth would always
outrun the food supply.
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4. Cont.
 Malthus believes that through preventative checks
and positive checks, the population growth would
be controlled to balance the food supply with the
population level.
4

5. 5
Fig. 1

6. Criticism of Malthus theory of
population growth
Population Growth:
The gloom and doom forecast put forwarded by Malthus have not played
out.
Food Production:
Due to technological advancements, food production has dramatically
increased over the past century. Often, the food production rate has grown
higher than the population growth rate.
Neglected the manpower aspects in population:
Malthus neglected the manpower aspects in population. If population
increases than the manpower will also increase which may tend to increase not
only agricultural but also Industrial production. 6

7. Cont.
 Importance given to only Food grains for
livelihood:
He gave importance only to the food grains for
livelihood. But for livelihood food grains are not
enough. Fruits, meat, fish, milk, egg, etc. can also be
used as food.
 Increase in population the result of declining
Death rate:
Malthus theory is one sided. It takes the increase in
population as the result of rising birth rate, whereas
population has grown considerably the world over due
to decline in death rate.
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8. Cont.
 Sexual Desire not same: Malthus assumed
that the sexual desire is the same in human
beings. In fact, it differs from person to
person and depends on age, health, and
psychological and environmental factors.
8

9. Global human
population growth
 From last few decades human population is increasing
drastically.
 Three different results was predicted, assuming different
periods by which the world’s population would attain
equilibrium-
 Number of birth being equal to the number of deaths (in
the year 2110, population 10.5 billion).
 If the Birth rate decrease at faster pace (by the year 2040,
population 8 billion).
 If the birth rate decrease at slower pace (by the year 2130,
population 14.2 billion).
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10. 10
Fig. 2

11. Doubling time
 It indicates the number of years in which the
population would double in size if the present growth
rate were continue. For example: a population of 1
million with the constant rate of growth and a 10
year doubling time would be 2 million in 10 year
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YEAR POPULATION GROWTH
20th year 4 million
30th year 8 million
40th year 16 million
50th year 32 million
Table 1: Showing doubling time

12. Cont.
 The method of determining doubling time is derived
directly from the exponential formula for continuous
compounding as is used.
 Doubling time for the population growth is calculated by
dividing 69.3 (or 70 in round numbers) by the population’s
growth rate expressed as a percent. For example-
If the growth rate is 2 percent per year, the doubling
time would be approximately 35 years.
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13. 0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1 2 3 4 5
Doubling time
Year Population (In Million)
13
Fig. 3

14. Cont.
 Projection of doubling time in the future is just that
projections.
 This projections on population growth are dependent on a
host of factors like changing in birth rate, changing in death
rate, age structure and migration.
 The use of doubling time gives a quick approximation to the
future or a retrospective on past. For example- the doubling
time of the human population growth is dramatically reduced
in the past and the projected doubling time based on trends
since 1965:
from 0.75 to 1.6 billion – 1750-1900, or 150 year (actual)
from 1.6 to 3.3 billion - 1900-1965, or 65 year (actual)
from 3.3 to 7.0 billion - 1965-2005, or 40 year (projected)14

15. Cont.
Year Population Growth Rate Doubling time
1982 4.5 billion 1.7% 41
1994 5.6
billion(estimate
d)
1.6% 43
15
With that rate and with no other demographic changes the world’s
population would be11.2 billion in 2037 and 22.4 billion in 2080 and
about 31 billion in 2100.
Table 2: Projection of doubling time and Growth rate in year 1982 and 1994

16. Regional human
population growth
 All regions of the world population growth rate is not
probably the same.
16
City/Year 1950 1980 2000
(expected)
Shanghai 5.8 million 14.3 million 23.7 million
London 10.4 million 10 million Less than 10
million
Table 3: Population growth rate in Shanghai and London in different
time period

17. 17
0
5
10
15
20
25
POPUATION GROWTH IN TWO CITIES
Shanghai London
1950 1980 2000(expected)
Year
Population(inmillion)
Fig. 4

18. Cont.
 According to the united nations data, from 1990-2025 the
world population will increase by 3.2 billion.
 Of the projected increase less than 200 million or 6% in
developed countries and 3 billion or 94% in developing
countries.
 70% of this increase is projected to occur in 20 less
developed countries.
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19. Country
Population
(increases in
million in
parenthesis)
INDIA 592
CHINA 357
NIGERIA 198
PAKISTAN 144
BANGLADESH 119
BRAZIL 95
INDONESIA 83
ETHIOPIA 66
IRAN 64
ZAIRA 62
MAXICO 58
TANZANIA 58
KENYA 53
VIETNAM 51
PHILLIPIANS 49
EGYPT 40
UGANDA 37
SAUDAN 34
TURKEY 34
SOUTH AFRICA 28
19Table4: Population increase in developing countries

20. 20
Populations (million)
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2010 2020 2025
World 4,453 4,842 5,248 5,677 6,123 6,987 7,793 8,162
Africa 476 553 645 753 877 1,170 1,488 1,642
Latin America 362 406 453 501 550 647 742 787
North America 252 263 275 287 298 319 339 348
East Asia 1,182 1,252 1,317 1,390 1,470 1,589 1,662 1,696
South Asia 1,408 1,572 1,740 1,909 2,074 2,379 2,654 2,771
Europe 484 492 499 505 510 515 518 518
Oceania 23 25 27 29 30 34 38 40
USSR 265 279 291 303 314 334 352 361
Population Estimates from 1980-2025 for major regions
of the world
Table 5: estimation of population from 1980- 2025 for
major regions of the world

21. Population growth in developed and
developing countries (1750-2100)
21
Fig.6

22. Problems with human
overpopulation
 Human overpopulation (or population
overshoot) occurs when the ecological
footprint of a human population in a specific
geographical location exceeds the carrying
capacity of the place occupied by that group.
 Overpopulation can result from an increase
in births, a decline in mortality rates, an
increase in immigration etc.
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23. Cont.
1. Reduces rate of capital formation
2. Higher rate of population required higher investment.
3. Reduces per capita availability of capital.
4. Unemployment.
5. Food problems.
6. Population and farming.
7. Decline social infrastructure.
8. Lowers standard of living.
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24. Steps to control population
growth in India by Govt. of
India
 Govt. of India has taken some steps to control the population
growth in India.
 More emphasis on spacing methods like IUCD.
 Quality care in Family Planning services by establishing
Quality Assurance Committees at state and district levels.
 Improving contraceptives supply management up to
peripheral facilities.
 Compensation scheme for sterilization acceptors - under the
scheme MoHFW provides compensation for loss of wages to
the beneficiary and also to the service provider (& team) for
conducting sterilisations.
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25. New inventories under
family planning program
 Scheme for Home delivery of contraceptives by
ASHAs at doorstep of beneficiaries.
 Scheme for ASHAs to ensure spacing in births.
ASHAs are to be paid the following incentives under
the scheme-
 Rs. 500/- to ASHA for ensuring spacing of 2 years
after marriage.
 Rs. 500/- to ASHA for ensuring spacing of 3 years
after the birth of 1st child.
 Rs. 1000/- in case the couple opts for a
permanent limiting method up to 2 children
only. 25

26. Cont.
 Boost to spacing methods by introduction of
new method PPIUCD (Post-Partum Intra
Uterine Contraceptives Device).
 Introduction of the new device Cu IUCD
375, which is effective for 5 years.
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27. Conclusion
 Overpopulation or population explosion is a
major problem now a days in many countries
like India. But Govt. of India has taken some
steps to control the population growth.
According to an UN report the Total Fertility
Rate in India was 3.6 in the year 1993 but in
year 2015 it is dropped to 2.1. But some states
like UP and Bihar it is still 3.6. To control the
population growth govt. should take some
more steps and should implement it in more
promising way, and providing of basic
education is must to control the population
growth.
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28. Reference
 Jhingan, M.L. and Sharma, C.K. (2008). Environmental
Economics, 2nd edition, Vrinda publication, PP: 213-217.
 Ray, D. (2017). Development Economics, 27th edition,
Oxford university press, PP:320-327.
 Kormondy, E.J. (1996). Concept of ecology, 4th edition,
Prentice hall India pvt. LTD. PP: 388-394.
 http://pib.nic.in/newssite/printrelease
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