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Risk Analysis : PMP- Project Risk Management

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Saket Bansal
Saket Bansal

The document discusses qualitative and quantitative risk analysis methods in project risk management. It defines risk and describes qualitative analysis which involves assessing probability and impact through a risk matrix. Quantitative analysis numerically analyzes risk impact through tools like probability distributions, sensitivity analysis, and modeling. It provides examples of qualitative versus quantitative analysis and how qualitative analysis leads to quantitative analysis by identifying risks with the greatest effects. The overall process of risk management is also summarized.

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Qualitative and Quantitative Risk Analysis – PMP® Prep Topic Saket Bansal PMP is a registered trademark of the Project Management Institute, Inc. © 2013 iZenBridge | CONFIDENTIAL
Agenda About Risk Project Risk Management Qualitative Risk Analysis Quantitative Risk Analysis © 2013 iZenBridge | CONFIDENTIAL
Risk " Project risk is an uncertain event or condition that, if it occurs, as a positive or negative effect on one or more project objectives such as scope, schedule, cost, and quality. " - PMBOK® Guide Fifth Edition Uncertain Risk Impact © 2013 iZenBridge | CONFIDENTIAL
Risk appetitte , tolerance and threshold Risk Appetite We take high risks. Risk Tolerance We can take risk of up to 100,000 USD Risk Threshold We can not take risk of 200,000 USD with 50% Probability © 2013 iZenBridge | CONFIDENTIAL
Project Risk Management Control Risks Plan Risk Management Plan Risk Response Identify Risks Perform Quantitative Risk Analysis Perform Qualitative Risk Analysis © 2013 iZenBridge | CONFIDENTIAL
Identify Risks If CAUSE exists, EVENT may occur leading to EFFECT Risk Description Potential Cause Risk Priority Risk Category © 2013 iZenBridge | CONFIDENTIAL Risk Impact
Risk Analysis I need to prioritize risks so that I can take care of high impact items first © 2013 iZenBridge | CONFIDENTIAL
Qualitative Risk Analysis Risk Ranking Qualitative Risk Analysis Probability and Impact Mark for further Analysis © 2013 iZenBridge | CONFIDENTIAL Watch list
How to do Qualitative Risk Assesment Perform probability and impact assessment Risk Data Quality Assessment Check the definition of probability and impact Risk Categorizations Use Probability and Impact Matrix to calculate the risk exposure Risk Urgency Assessment Expert Judgment © 2013 iZenBridge | CONFIDENTIAL Update Risk Register
Quantitative Risk Analysis Perform Quantitative Risk Analysis is the process of numerically analyzing the effect of identified risks on overall project objectives. - PMBOK ® Guide Fifth Edition © 2013 iZenBridge | CONFIDENTIAL
Numercial Analysis Provides Probabilistic Analysis © 2013 iZenBridge | CONFIDENTIAL
Quantitative Risk Analysis Tools • • • • • • Inteviewing Probability distributions Sensitivity analysis Expected Monetory Value Analysis Modeling and Simulation Expert Judgement © 2013 iZenBridge | CONFIDENTIAL
Qualitative vs Quantitaitve Risk Analysis Qualitative Addresses individual risks descriptively Example : Extension of winter season may cause delay in deliverable validation Quantitative Predicts likely project outcomes based on combined effects of risks Example: There is 50% probability of completing the project in 500,000 USD © 2013 iZenBridge | CONFIDENTIAL
Qualitative vs Quantitaitve Risk Analysis Qualitative Quantitative •Uses probability distributions to characterize the risk’s probability and impact Assesses the discreet probability of occurrence and impact on objective if it does occur •Uses project model (e.g. Schedule, cost estimate) •Estimates the likelihood of meeting targets and contingency needed to achieve desired level of comfort © 2013 iZenBridge | CONFIDENTIAL
Qualitative vs Quantitaitve Risk Analysis Qualitative Leads to quantitative risk analysis Quantitative Identifies risks with greatest effects on overall project risk © 2013 iZenBridge | CONFIDENTIAL
What Next ? Control Risks Plan Risk Management Plan Risk Response Identify Risks Perform Quantitative Risk Analysis Perform Qualitative Risk Analysis © 2013 iZenBridge | CONFIDENTIAL
Stay Connected Contact Us Saket.Bansal@iZenBridge.com www.iZenBridge.com PMP® / PMI-ACP® Discussion Forum Youtube Channel www.youtube.com/izenbridge forum.izenbridge.com © 2013 iZenBridge | CONFIDENTIAL

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Risk Analysis : PMP- Project Risk Management

  • 1. Qualitative and Quantitative Risk Analysis – PMP® Prep Topic Saket Bansal PMP is a registered trademark of the Project Management Institute, Inc. © 2013 iZenBridge | CONFIDENTIAL
  • 2. Agenda About Risk Project Risk Management Qualitative Risk Analysis Quantitative Risk Analysis © 2013 iZenBridge | CONFIDENTIAL
  • 3. Risk " Project risk is an uncertain event or condition that, if it occurs, as a positive or negative effect on one or more project objectives such as scope, schedule, cost, and quality. " - PMBOK® Guide Fifth Edition Uncertain Risk Impact © 2013 iZenBridge | CONFIDENTIAL
  • 4. Risk appetitte , tolerance and threshold Risk Appetite We take high risks. Risk Tolerance We can take risk of up to 100,000 USD Risk Threshold We can not take risk of 200,000 USD with 50% Probability © 2013 iZenBridge | CONFIDENTIAL
  • 5. Project Risk Management Control Risks Plan Risk Management Plan Risk Response Identify Risks Perform Quantitative Risk Analysis Perform Qualitative Risk Analysis © 2013 iZenBridge | CONFIDENTIAL
  • 6. Identify Risks If CAUSE exists, EVENT may occur leading to EFFECT Risk Description Potential Cause Risk Priority Risk Category © 2013 iZenBridge | CONFIDENTIAL Risk Impact
  • 7. Risk Analysis I need to prioritize risks so that I can take care of high impact items first © 2013 iZenBridge | CONFIDENTIAL
  • 8. Qualitative Risk Analysis Risk Ranking Qualitative Risk Analysis Probability and Impact Mark for further Analysis © 2013 iZenBridge | CONFIDENTIAL Watch list
  • 9. How to do Qualitative Risk Assesment Perform probability and impact assessment Risk Data Quality Assessment Check the definition of probability and impact Risk Categorizations Use Probability and Impact Matrix to calculate the risk exposure Risk Urgency Assessment Expert Judgment © 2013 iZenBridge | CONFIDENTIAL Update Risk Register
  • 10. Quantitative Risk Analysis Perform Quantitative Risk Analysis is the process of numerically analyzing the effect of identified risks on overall project objectives. - PMBOK ® Guide Fifth Edition © 2013 iZenBridge | CONFIDENTIAL
  • 12. Quantitative Risk Analysis Tools • • • • • • Inteviewing Probability distributions Sensitivity analysis Expected Monetory Value Analysis Modeling and Simulation Expert Judgement © 2013 iZenBridge | CONFIDENTIAL
  • 13. Qualitative vs Quantitaitve Risk Analysis Qualitative Addresses individual risks descriptively Example : Extension of winter season may cause delay in deliverable validation Quantitative Predicts likely project outcomes based on combined effects of risks Example: There is 50% probability of completing the project in 500,000 USD © 2013 iZenBridge | CONFIDENTIAL
  • 14. Qualitative vs Quantitaitve Risk Analysis Qualitative Quantitative •Uses probability distributions to characterize the risk’s probability and impact Assesses the discreet probability of occurrence and impact on objective if it does occur •Uses project model (e.g. Schedule, cost estimate) •Estimates the likelihood of meeting targets and contingency needed to achieve desired level of comfort © 2013 iZenBridge | CONFIDENTIAL
  • 15. Qualitative vs Quantitaitve Risk Analysis Qualitative Leads to quantitative risk analysis Quantitative Identifies risks with greatest effects on overall project risk © 2013 iZenBridge | CONFIDENTIAL
  • 16. What Next ? Control Risks Plan Risk Management Plan Risk Response Identify Risks Perform Quantitative Risk Analysis Perform Qualitative Risk Analysis © 2013 iZenBridge | CONFIDENTIAL
  • 17. Stay Connected Contact Us Saket.Bansal@iZenBridge.com www.iZenBridge.com PMP® / PMI-ACP® Discussion Forum Youtube Channel www.youtube.com/izenbridge forum.izenbridge.com © 2013 iZenBridge | CONFIDENTIAL