Project risk management focus on risk identification techniques

PROJECT RISK MANAGEMENT
FOCUS ON RISK IDENTIFICATION
TECHNIQUES
Author: Marco De Santis, PMP, 2014

3
The project risk management
is the systematic process of
identifying, analyzing and
responding to project risks in
order to increase the
probability and/or the impact
of positive events and to
decrease the probability
and/or the impact of negative
events in accordance with the
constraints.
Based on "Project Management Plan and process map" and "Project Risk Management -
Methodology and Application", published on Slideshare and LinkedIn, 2014

Manifesto

Focus on Risk Identification techniques
Please, Click ON hyperlink for the details
5
Assumptions
analysis
Brainstorming
Nominal group
Delphi technique
Interviews
Route Cause Analysis
Information
gathering
techniques
Checklist
analysis
Pareto
Diagram
SWOT analysis
Expert
judgement
Diagramming
techniques
Cause and effect diagram
(Ishikawa)
System or process flow
charts
Influence diagrams
Documentation
reviews

6
Control lists
1
Project
Checklist
Project objectives, constraints, assumptions, WBS,
contracts
Analysis and homogenize step
3
2
Project Team
Risk Owner
Based on "Corso di preparazione all'esame PMP", TI HR Services - Eureka Service, 2013
Checklist analysis

7
List of
Project
Risks
2
1
Project Team
Facilitator
Brainstorming
Author: Marco De Santis, PMP, 2014Based on "Corso di preparazione all'esame PMP", TI HR Services - Eureka Service, 2013

8
Project Team
Identify the participants
Evaluation step
Project Team
List of grouped risks
List of risks
Unique list of
results
List of risks List of risks
Project Team
Results approval step
6
5
1
3
2
4
7
8
List of
Project
Risks
Risk Owner
Risk Owner
Risk Owner
Risk Owner
Nominal group

9
Risk Owner
List of
Project
Risks
Unique list of risks and opinions
Experts identification
(anonymous list)
Risk Owner
2
2
2
Risks and
opinion
Risks and
opinion
Risks and
opinion
31
Review and
update
Updated unique list of risks
and opinions
4
5
Review and
update
Review and
update
5
5
Risk Owner 7
Consensus
Yes
No
8
6
? ? ? ?
? ? ? ?
Delphi technique

10
2
1
Project Team, experts and
other Project Manager
Risk Owner
Project objectives, constraints, assumptions, WBS, contracts
List of
Project
Risks
Basis of risk
interviews
Objectives, WBS,
historical data
Experts
identifications
Analysis of answers
Risk Owner
4
4
3
5
Interviews

11
Problem
idetification
Action
Problem
analysis
Analysis
Project standard
compliance
Check
Control
Qualità
Sicurezza
Efficienza
Effectiveness
Quality
Security
Why
Why
Why
Why
Why
Based on Lean Leadership, 7 step to 5-why, Paulsen & Paulsen LLC, 2010
Route cause analysis

12
Team di
progetto
Bad effect for the project
Effetto 1
Effetto 2
Effetto 3List of Project
Risks
and
generation
causes
123
4
Cause and effect Diagram
oR Ishikawa diagram "fishbone"

13
Product
requirements
Prototype
development
Prototype
Internal
approval
Technical
specifications
Start of
internal test
phase
Customer
approval
User
Acceptance
Test
Prototype
Approval
Production
no
yes
no
no
yesyes
system or process Flow charts

14
Examples:
• If R1 doesn't occur, R4 cannot occur.
• If R9 is influenced by R7: if R7 occurs, the probability of occurrence of R9 increases from 10% to 30%.
• If R9 is positively influenced by R5 and R2, too: if R5 or R2 occurs the impact of the risk of R9 decreases in measure of 50%.
• R3 is influenced only by the jointly occurrence of R6 and R8: in this case, R3 double both its probability of occurrence and
its impact on the project.
R1
R4
R7
R5
R2
R9
R3
R8
R6
Occurrence
Impact
Probability of
occurrence
Probability of occurrence
and impact
OR
AND
Influence Diagrams

15
List of
Project
Risks
Meeting
3
1
Project TeamRisk Owner
Strengths Weakness
Opportunities Threats
2
2
2
SWOT Analysis
Strengths, Weakness, Opportunities, Threats

16
Pareto Diagram
0,0%
10,0%
20,0%
30,0%
40,0%
Rischio1
Rischio2
Rischio3
Rischio4
Rischio5
Impact on cost
0,0%
10,0%
20,0%
30,0%
Rischio1
Rischio2
Rischio3
Rischio4
Rischio5
Impact on schedule
0,0%
10,0%
20,0%
30,0%
40,0%
Rischio1
Rischio2
Rischio3
Rischio4
Rischio5
Impact on quality

17
Expert judgment
Author: Marco De Santis, PMP, 2014Based on Project Management Body Of Knowledge (PMBOK Guide®), Project Management Institute, Fifth Edition, 2012 , p. 327
Experts
23
Basis of risk
interviews
Objectives, WBS,
historical data
Experts
identification
List of
Project
Risks
Evaluations Evaluations Evaluations
Project Manager and Risk Owner
1

18
Based on Project Management Body Of Knowledge (PMBOK Guide®), Project Management Institute, Fifth Edition, 2012, p. 324-325 Author: Marco De Santis, PMP, 2014
Assumptions analysis and
documentation reviews
Project Manager, Risk Owner and Project Team
1
1
1
2
List of
Project Risks

FOCUS on 6 RISK MANAGEMENT processes
PMBOK Guide®, Fifth Edition
20
The process of defining the rules for the development of the risk management plan, which includes:
methodology, responsibility, definition and management of reserves and changes
The process of identifying project risks, accurately describing and giving a first response hypothesis
Risks are classified by importance, in order to define a priority based on a Risk Factor (RF)
The overall effect of the project risks (Expected Monetary Value, EMV) is measured numerically. The
contingency reserve, which is the pre-reserve economic response to the risks , will be defined
Here are being planned necessary responses
for facing the threats in order to reduce the
probability and / or the impact of threats and
/ or to amplify those opportunities
The process of implementing the responses, of updating the status of the risks (identified, secondary, residual
and new) and evaluating the effectiveness of the risk management.
PLANNING
MONTIORINGAND
CONTROLING
1. Plan Risk
Management
2. Identify Risks
3. Perform Qualitative
Risk Analysis
4. Perform
Quantitative Risk
Analysis
5. Plan Risk Responses
6. Control Risks
Based on "Corso di preparazione all'esame PMP", TI HR Services - Eureka Service, 2013
Threats Risk Strategy Opportunity
Avoid Uncertaincy removal Exploit
Transfer
Reallocation of
responsibilities Enhance
Mitigate
Exposition level
modification Share
Accept Current management Accept

Project risk management focus on risk identification techniques

Project risk management focus on risk identification techniques

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