As of August 15, 2014, the Nepal Stock Exchange (NEPSE) closed at 1034.39 points, marking a decrease of 6.20 points (or -0.60%) from the previous week, with an average daily trading volume of NPR 38.39 crores. Key technical indicators show that while the RSI is at 52.83 indicating a neutral market, the MACD suggests ongoing downward momentum, and Bollinger Bands indicate potential overselling conditions. Overall, low trading volumes and halted broker activities have resulted in a subdued market environment despite a recent drop in stock prices.

1. Technical Analysis
1. Market Summary (as of Aug 15, 2014)
Nepse at close last week (Aug 14, 2014) 1034.39
Nepse high last week (Aug 14, 2014) 1034.39
Weekly Change - 6.20 (or -0.60 %)
Daily Volume (Avg.) NPR 38.39 crores
Total Traded Amount (weekly) NPR 1.15 billion
Immediate Resistance 1083.55
Immediate Support 1025.69
RSI 52.83
MACD Line 11.48
Signal Line 21.04
2. Market Trend
Nepse (Jan 01, 2014 – Aug 15, 2014)
Nepse witnessed a very short trading week which consisted on only three days of trading. Tuesday, the
first trading day saw lower buying among stock market participants as their confidence level remained
low this week as well. As a result, Nepse fell by 6.20 points (or -0.60%) to end the week at 1034.39 points.
It must be noted that the volume remained significantly lower this week as 8 to 16 brokers were barred
from trading on each of the three days of trading. Hence, the daily volume witnessed a sharp decline as it
averaged NPR 38.39 crores this week compared to NPR 48.65 crores during the previous week. On
Tuesday, Nepse dropped below its support level of 1025.69 points; however, it was not supported by
volume. At present, the resistance and support levels remain the same at 1083.55 and 1025.69 points
respectively. The stock market index is also positioned above the 50-day moving average indicating that
the long-term trend is still in the positive direction.

2. 1. RSI
RSI is a form of leading indicator that is believed to be most effective during periods of sideways
movement. Such indicators may create numerous buy and sell signals that are useful when the
market is not clearly trending upwards or downwards. Lack of enthusiasm among investors along
with low volume has caused the RSI to fall to 52.83 levels. As a result, Nepse is still maintaining within
the neutral zone.
RSI (Jan 01, 2013 –Aug 15, 2014)
2. MACD
The MACD is a momentum oscillator formed by using two different types of moving averages, which
provides specific buying or selling signals. When a MACD line crosses above the signal line, it is
considered to be a positive sign and indicates a time to buy, and vice-versa. Continuing the trend
from the previous week, the MACD and Signal lines have dropped significantly with the MACD line
falling with a greater momentum. This implies a downward pressure on the market in the near term.
MACD (Jan 01, 2013 – Aug 15, 2014)
3. Bollinger Bands
The Bollinger Band is a technical indicator that consists of a moving average (21-day) along with two
trading bands above (upper band) and below it (lower band). The bands are an indication of volatility,
which are represented by calculating standard deviation. With another week of decline in the market,
the Nepse line has almost touched the lower band. This indicates that the market may be getting
oversold in the near term. The converging bands also indicate low volatility in the market in recent
times.

3. Bollinger Bands (Nov 04, 2013 – Aug 15, 2014)
Overview:
Nepse witnessed another drop this week which only consisted of 3 days of trading. The first day saw
a huge decline followed by two positive days – resulting in Nepse losing 6.20 points (or 0.60%) for the
week. Numerous brokers were halted from trading this week as well resulting in a severe decline in
trading volume which averaged just NPR 38.39 crores each day. The RSI declined this week to 52.83
levels suggesting that the market is neither overbought nor oversold at present. However, the MACD
indicator shows that the near term momentum has been falling at a greater pace than the longer
term momentum. The Bollinger Bands indicate that the market has gradually fallen into oversold
region. Overall, the indicators indicate that there has been greater downward momentum in the
market in recent times, however, with lower volume. This may indicate that selling is gradually
getting exhausted in the market, which may invite investors who are looking for bargains.

4. k|fljlws ljZn]if0f
ahf/ ;f/f+z ->fj0f @% b]vL >fj0f @( ;Ddsf]_
aGb cªs ->fj0f @(_ M !)#$=#(
pRr cªs ->fj0f @(_ M !)#$=#(
;fKtflxs kl/jt{g M –^=@) cªs -–)=^) k|ltzt_
b}lgs cf};t Jofkf/ M ¿= #*=#( s/f]8
s'n ;fKtflxs Jofkf/ M ¿= ! ca{ !% s/f]8
tTsflng 6]jf M !)*#=%%
tTsflng k|lt/f]w M !)@%=^(
cf/P;cfO{ M %@=*#
PdP;L8L M !!=$*
l;Ugn nfO{g M @!=)$
%) tyf @)) lbg] d'leª Pe/]h
g]K;]df o; ;ftf tLg lbgdfq sf/f]af/ ePsf] 5 . o; ;ftf klg nufgLstf{x?sf] ahf/ k|ltsf] efj sd
/x]sfn] ;ftfsf] klxnf] sf/f]af/ lbg, d+unaf/, ahf/df vl/b bafa sd b]lvof] . kmn:j?k, g]K;] ^=@) cªs –
jf )=^) k|ltzt_ n] 36]/ !)#$=#( cªs k'u]sf] 5 . o; ;ftf klg nuftf/ tLg k|To]s lbg * b]lv !^
a|f]s/x?n] sf/f]af/ ug{ gkfPsf sf/0f klg Jofkf/ -ef]No"d_ t'ngfTds ?kdf sd /x]sf] lyof] . t;y{, ut xKtf
$*=^% s/f]8 ?k}Fof /x]sf] b}lgs cf}ift Jofkf/ -ef]No"d_ o; ;ftf 36]/ #*=#( s/f]8 ?k}Fof k'u]sf] 5 .
d+unaf/sf lbg g]K;] !)@%=^( cªssf] ;dy{g tx eGbf d'gL v;]sf] lyof] / Jofkf/ -ef]No"d_ eg] sd /x]sf]
lyof] . jt{dfgdf, ahf/sf] k|lt/f]w / 6]jf÷;dy{g cªs s|dzM !)*#=%% / !)@%=^( cªs /x]sf] 5 . g]K;]
%)–lbg] d'leË Pe/]h eGbf dfly g} /x]sfn] ahf/sf] bL3{sfnLg k|j[lt a'ln; g} /x]sf] 5 .

5. Nepse (Jan 01, 2014 – August 14, 2014)
l/n]l6j :6«]Gy OG8]S; -cf/P;cfO{_
cf/P;cfO{ k|fljlws ljZn]if0fsf] o:tf] cf}hf/ xf], h;nfO{ Pstlkm{ ?kdf rln/x]sf] ahf/df Jofkf/ /0fgLlt
agfpg a9L pkof]uL dflgG5 . To;}u/L, o;n] ahf/df vl/b / ljlqmsf] :ki6 ;+s]t b]vfpg] u5{ .
nufgLstf{x? lar ahf/k|ltsf] pT;fxdf sld / Jofkf/ -ef]No"d_ df lu/fj6sf sf/0f cf/P;cfO{ 36]/ %@=*#
cªs k'u]sf] 5 . kmn:j?k, g]K;] ce}m klg t6:y If]q leq sfod /x]sf] 5 .
RSI (Jan 01, 2013 – August 14, 2014)
d'leª Pe/]h sGeh]{G; 8fOeh]{G; -PdP;L8L_
PdP;L8Ldf b'O{ cf]6f /]vf x'G5g, h;df Pp6fn] ahf/sf] lbzf kl/jt{gsf] ;+s]t u5{ eg] csf]{n] ahf/sf] k|j[lQ
-6«]08_ b]vfpg] u5{ . olb PdP;L8L /]vfn] l;Ung /]vfnfO{ tnaf6 dfly sf6]df o;nfO{ ;sf/fTds ;+s]tsf
?kdf lnO{G5 / o;n] z]o/x? lsGg] ;+s]t ub{5 . cl3Nnf] xKtfsf] k|j[lt ;+u}, PdP;L8L /]vf / l;Ugn /]vf b'j}
36]sf] 5 h;df PdP;L8L /]vf a9L ultn] 36]sf] 5 . o;n] lgs6 eljiodf ahf/ 36g] bafadf /x]sf] ;+s]t
u/]sf] 5 .
MACD (Jan 01, 2013 – August 14, 2014)
af]lnªu/ Aof08
af]lnªu/ Aof08 Ps k|fljlws ljZn]if0f ;"rs xf] h;df @!–lbg] d'leË Pe/]hsf ;fy b'O{ Aof08 -Pp6f dfly_
/ Pp6f tn_ x'G5g . lo Aof08x?n] cl:y/tfsf] ;+s]t ub{5g, h'g :6fG88{ 8]leP;g u0fgf u/]/ kQf nufO{G5
. csf]{ lu/fj6sf] xKtf ;+u}, g]K;]n] nueu tNnf] Aof08 5f]Psf] 5 . o;n] lgs6 eljiodf ahf/ cf]e/;f]N8
/xg ;Sg] ;+s]t u/]sf] 5 . b'O{ Aof08x? lar 3l6/x]sf] b'/Ln] ahf/df cl:y/tf 3l6/x]sf] ;+s]t u/]sf] 5 .

6. Bollinger Bands (Jan 01, 2013 – August 14, 2014)
;du{dfM
o; ;ftf klg g]K;]df csf]{ lu/fj6 b]lvPsf] 5 h;df tLg lbg dfq sf/f]af/ ePsf] lyof] . klxnf] sf/f]af/ lbg,
g]K;]df 7"nf] lu/fj6 b]lvPsf] lyof] To; kl5 g]K;] b'O{ lbg ;sf/fTds /xof] . ;ftfsf] cGTodf g]K;] ^=@) cªs
-jf )=^) k|ltzt_ n] 36]sf] 5 . o; ;ftf klg y'k|} a|f]s/x?n] ljleGg sf/0fj; sf/f]af/ ug{ kfPgg h;n]
ubf{ Jofkf/ -ef]No"d_ df lu/fj6 b]lvPsf] 5 h'g o; ;ftf #*=#( s/f]8 ?k}Fof dfq /xof] . o; ;ftf,
cf/P;cfO{ 36]/ %@=*# cªsdf k'u]sf] 5 h;n] tTsfn ahf/ g cf]e/a6 g cf]e/;f]N8 /x]sf] ;+s]t u/]sf] 5 .
t/, PdP;L8L ;"rsn] eg] lgs6 eljiosf] d'leË Pe/]h, bL3{sfnLg d'leË Pe/]h eGbf a9L ultn] 3l6 /x]sf]
b]vfPsf] 5 . af]lnË/ Aof08n] ahf/ lj:tf/} cf]e/;f]N8 tk{m al9 /x]sf] ;+s]t u/]sf] 5 . ;du{df, ;"rsx?n]
xfnsf] ;dodf sd Jofkf/ -ef]No"d_ ;+u} ahf/ emg]{ k|j[ltdf /x]sf] ;+s]t u/]sf] 5 . o;n] ahf/df a]Rg] bafa
lj:tf/} 36b} uO{/x]sf] ;+s]t u/]sf] 5 h;n] ahf/df ;:tf] z]o/x? k|lt nufgLstf{x?sf] cfsif{0f a9g ;Sg] 5
.