Nepse Weekly Technical Analysis May 22 - May 26, 2016

1. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
1. Market Summary (as of May 26, 2016)
NEPSE at close last week (May 26, 2016) 1525.09
NEPSE high last week (May 24, 2016) 1544.53
Weekly Change 25.77 points (or 1.73%)
Daily Volume (Avg.) NPR 143.47 crores
Total Traded Amount (weekly) NPR 717.33 crores
RSI 71.59
MACD Line 28.75
Signal Line 27.95
2. Nepse Figure
Nepse (June 1, 2014 – May 26, 2016)

2. 3. Trend Analysis
The Nepse index gained 25.77 points (or up 1.73%) to close at 1525.09 last week. Positive quarterly results of
the BFIs continue to support the bullish trend in the market. Nepse corrected itself on Wednesday of last week
by dropping 20.41 points. The index continue to run above the 50 days moving average, as well as the 200
days moving average, indicating that the long term trend looks positive. The upcoming budget announcement
for the next fiscal year could further have positive effect in the market.
4. Resistance and Support
Immediate Support 1463
Support 2 1390
Immediate Resistance 1600
Resistance 2
The Nepse index surpassed it resistance level of 1500 at the beginning of last week. Currently the new
immediate support and resistance level stands at 1463 and 1600 respectively. The current bullish
sentiment could lead Nepse to break the psychological resistance level of 1600 in the coming weeks.
5. Trend Indicator
a.) MACD
The MACD is a momentum oscillator formed by using two different types of moving averages, which
provides specific buying or selling signals. When a MACD line crosses above the signal line, it is
considered to be a positive sign and indicates a time to buy, and vice-versa.
The Macd and the signal line stood at 25.53 and 26.98 respectively, at the beginning of last week. The
macd line moving below the signal line indicates a bearish signal. However, in the course of the week, the
macd line moved above the signal line, triggering a bullish trend. Towards the end of the week, the macd
and the signal line ended at 28.75 and 27.95 respectively.

3. b.) RSI
RSI is a form of leading indicator that is believed to be most effective during periods of sideways
movement. Such indicators may create numerous buy and sell signals that are useful when the market is
not clearly trending upwards or downwards.
The RSI at the beginning of the week stood at 78.14 points. In the course of the week the RSI fell by 6.55
points to end at 71.59 level. The RSI indicator still shows a presence of over-bought condition, as well as
strong bullish sentiment in the market.
c.) Bollinger Bands
The Bollinger Band is a technical indicator that consists of a moving average (21-day) along with two
trading bands above (upper band) and below it (lower band). The bands are an indication of volatility,
which are represented by calculating standard deviation.
The benchmark index is hovering close to the upper Bollinger band, which signifies high buying pressure
in the market. The upper and lower bands show signs of divergence, which could increase the market
volatility.

4. 6. Volume Indicator (On-Balance Volume)
On-Balance Volume (OBV) is a momentum indicator that relates volume to the current price of the index
or security. It measures buying and selling pressure at the market. It acts as a cumulative indicator that
adds volume on up days and subtracts volume on down days. If a price increase is supported by OBV, it
confirms an uptrend, whereas if a price decrease is supported by OBV, it confirms a downtrend.
The On-Balance Volume (OBV) continued its steep rise along with the rise witnessed by Nepse. This rise
in OBV supports the bullish momentum in the market. The average weekly volume transactions stood at a
staggering NPR 143.47 from NPR 86.11 crores the week prior. The turnover on Tuesday of last week
stood at 1.6 arba, which is the highest in history.
7. Overview
The Nepse index gained 25.77 points (or up 1.73%) to close at 1525.09 last week. The 50-day and 200-day
moving averages continue to climb up along with the benchmark index, indicating that the overall market
condition looks good. The macd line is moving above the signal line, indicating a bullish trigger.
The RSI ended at 71.59 level, which still show high buying pressure in the market. The Bollinger bands
signal overbought condition as the index is moving close to the upper band. The bands also indicate a possible
increase in market volatility as the upper and lower bands has diverged. The new support and resistance level
stands at 1463 and 1600 respectively.

5. k|fljlwsljZn]if0f
!_ahf/ ;f/f+z -h]7!#, @)&#;Ddsf]_
aGb cªs -h]7 !#, @)&#_ !%@%=)(
pRr cªs -uPsf] ;ftf_ !%$$=%#
;fKtflxs kl/jt{g @%=&& -!=&#k|ltzt_
b}lgscf};t Jofkf/ ¿=!$#=$&s/f]8
s'n ;fKtflxsJofkf/ ¿ &!&=## s/f]8
cf/P;cfO{ &!=%(
PdP;L8L @$=&%
l;UgnnfO{g @&=(%
@_ ahf/ k|j[lt
Nepse (June 1, 2014 – May 26, 2016)

6. #_ 6]«G8 ljZn]if0f
uPsf] ;ftfklg g]K;] kl/;"rsdf a9g] s|dhf/L /xof] . h;sf] kmn:j?k@%=&&cªssf] a[l4 ;Fu} ahf/n]
km]l/ cfkmgf] Oltxf;sf] pRrcªs 5f]Psf] cj:yf /xof] . a[l4 ;Fu} ahf/df s]xL s/]S;gklg b]lvof] t/
To;sf] ef]ln kN6 km]l/ ahf/ dflyhfg'n] nufgLstf{x? dfemcem} klgahf/ k|lt ;sf/fTdsljrf/ /x]sf]
blvG5 . clxn] klg a}+s tyfljQLo ;+:yfx?sf] t];|f] q}dfl;sljj/0ftyfOG:of]/]G; If]qn]ahf/nfO{ p5fn]sf]
b]lvG5 / ;fy} cfufdL ah]6df ;d]t kF"hLahf/nfO{ lnP/ s]xL /fd|} Joj:yfx? cfpg ;Sg] lx;fan] ahf/
a9]s} l:yltdf 5 . ;du|dfclxn] klg kl/;"rs %) lbg] d'leËPe/]h tyf @)) lbg] d'leËeGbfdfly g}
rln/x]sf] cj:yf ;du|dfahf/sf] l:ylt /fd|f] b]lvG5 .
$_ 6]jftyfk|lt/f]w cªs
glhssf] 6]jfcªs !$^#
6]jfcªs @ !#()
glhssf] k|lt/f]w cªs !^))
clxn] klgglhssf] 6]jfcªs!$^# tyfglhssf] k|lt/f]w cªs !^)) /x]sf] cj:yf 5 . g]K;] kl/;"rsn]
cfkmgf] glhssf] k|lt/f]w cªs !%)) nfO{kf/ u/L dflycfPsf] cj:yf /x]sf] 5 . xfnsf] l:yltdf g]K;]
kl/;"rsTof] eGbfdflyghfnfeGg ;lsGg .
%_ g]K;] 6]«G8 ;"rs
s_ d'leª Pe/]hsGeh]{G; 8fOeh]{G; -PdP;L8L_
PdP;L8Ldf b'O{ cf]6f /]vf x'G5g, h;df Pp6fn] ahf/sf] lbzf kl/jt{gsf] ;+s]t u5{ eg] csf]{n] ahf/sf]
k|j[lQ -6«]08_ b]vfpg] u5{ . olb PdP;L8L /]vfn] l;Ung /]vfnfO{ tnaf6 dfly sf6]dfo;nfO{ ;sf/fTds
;+s]tsf ?kdflnO{G5 / o;n] z]o/x? lsGg] ;+s]t ub{5 .
uPsf] ;ftfsf] z'?df PdP;L8L nfO{gtyfl;UgnnfO{g s|dzM@%=%#tyf@^=(*sf] l:yltdf /x]sf] lyof] .
dflyrln/x]sf] PdP;L8L nfO{g km]l/ tncfPsf] cj:yfn] ahf/sf] a'lnz 6]«G8sf] ultdfs]xLsdLcfPsf]
;+s]t ub{5 t/ ;ftfsf] afFsLlbgx?dfPdP;L8L nfO{gdflycfpgfn] clxn] klgahf/sf] ult a9L g} /x]sf]
;+s]t ub{5 . ;ftfsf] cGTodfPdP;L8L nfO{g tyfl;UgnnfO{g s|dzM@*=&%tyf@&=(% /x]sf]] 5 .

7. v_ l/n]l6j :6«]Gy OG8]S; -cf/P;cfO{_
cf/P;cfO{ k|fljlwsljZn]if0fsf] o:tf] cf}hf/ xf], h;nfO{ Pstlkm{ ?kdfrln/x]sf] ahf/dfJofkf/ /0fgLlt
agfpg a9L pkof]uL dflgG5 . To;}u/L, o;n] ahf/dfvl/b / ljlqmsf] :ki6 ;+s]t b]vfpg] u5{ .
cf/P;cfO{uPsf] ;ftfsf] z'?df&*=!$cªsdf/x]sf] lyof] . t/ km]l/ ;ftfsf]
afFsLlbgx?dfcf/P;cfO{df^=%%cªsn] 36L&!=%(cªsdfaGbeof] . t/ w]/} nfdf] ;do b]lv &)
cªseGbfdfly /x]sf] cf/P;cfO{n] clxn] klgahf/dfa'lnz 6]«G8sf] ;+s]t g}ub{5 .
u_ af]lnªu/ Aof08
af]lnªu/ Aof08 Ps k|fljlwsljZn]if0f ;"rsxf] h;df @!–lbg] d'leËPe/]hsf ;fyb'O{ Aof08 -Pp6f
dfly_ / Pp6f tn_ x'G5g . lo Aof08x?n] cl:y/tfsf] ;+s]t ub{5g, h'g :6fG88{ 8]leP;g u0fgf
u/]/ kQfnufO{G5 .
g]K;] kl/;"rsxfnpkNnf] tyfdWo Aof08 sf] aLrdfrln/x]sf] cj:yf /x]sf] 5 . clxn] klgdWo Aof08
6]jfcªssf] ?kdf /x]sf] 5 / pkNnf] Aof08sf] glhsrln/x]sf] g]K;] kl/;"rsn] clxn] klgahf/ cf]e/
a6 l:yltdf /x]sf] ;+s]t ub{5 . ;fy} pkNnf] tyftNnf] Jof08 aLrsf] b'/L a9gfn]ahf/sf] cl:y/tfdf
s]xLa9]sf] ;+s]t ub{5 .

8. ;du{dfM
uPsf] ;ftf g]K;] kl/;"rsdf km]l/ @%=&&cªssf] a[l4 b]lvof] h;sf] kmn:j?kahf/ !%@%=)(cªsdfaGbeof]
. clxn] klg kl/;"rs %) lbg] d'leËPe/]h tyf @)) lbg] d'leËeGbfdflyuO{/x]sf] cj:yfn] ahf/ ;sf/fTds
l:yltdf g} /x]sf] ;+s]t ub{5 . PdP;L8L nfO{g l;UgnnfO{g eGbfdflycfPsf] cj:yfn] a'lnz 6]«G8df ahf/
uO{/x]sf] ;+s]t ub{5 . &) cªseGbfdfly /x]sf] cf/P;cfO{ clxn] klgahf/ ;du|dfcf]e/ a6 l:yltdf /x]sf]
;+s]t ub{5 . af]lnªu/ Aof08n] ahf/ clxn] klgcf]e/ a6sf] l:yltdf /x]sf] ;+s]t ub{5 . ;fy} pkNnf]
tyftNnf] Jof08 aLrsf] b'/L a9gfn]ahf/sf] cl:y/tfeg]s]xL a9]sf] ;+s]t ub{5 .xfnsf] cj:yfdfgofF
6]jfcªstyfk|lt/f]w cªs s||dzM !$^# tyf !^)) g} /x]sf] 5 .