Technical analysis of Nepal Stock Exchange (Nepse) index for the week from Feb 22, 2015 to Feb 26, 2015. The technical analysis includes summary, RSI, MACD and Bollinger band analysis. The analysis is done by Kriti Capital & Investments Ltd.

1. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
1. Market Summary (as of Feb 27, 2015)
Nepse at close last week (Feb 26, 2015) 979.27
Nepse high last week (Feb 26, 2015) 979.27
Weekly Change -3.38 (or -0.34%)
Daily Volume (Avg.) NPR 21.65 crores
Total Traded Amount (weekly) NPR 1.08 billion
Immediate Resistance 1036.98
Immediate Support 972.17
RSI 58.08
MACD Line 7.25
Signal Line 11.33
2. Market Trend
Nepse (Jan 01, 2014 – Feb 26, 2015)
3. RSI
RSI is a form of leading indicator that is believed to be most effective during periods of sideways
movement. Such indicators may create numerous buy and sell signals that are useful when the market
is not clearly trending upwards or downwards. The RSI declined slightly this week and maintained
within the neutral zone. On Wednesday, the RSI had fallen to 51.73 levels. However, by the close of
the trading week, the RSI spiked up to 58.08 levels.

2. RSI (Jan 02, 2014 – Feb 26, 2015)
4. MACD
The MACD is a momentum oscillator formed by using two different types of moving averages, which
provides specific buying or selling signals. When a MACD line crosses above the signal line, it is
considered to be a positive sign and indicates a time to buy, and vice-versa. The MACD line was
below the Signal line the week prior, and it continued the downward momentum by the end of this
week. Currently the MACD seems to be moving towards zero line. Crossing the zero line would
indicate a sell signal in the market.
MACD (Jan 02, 2014 – Feb 26, 2015)
5. Bollinger Bands
The Bollinger Band is a technical indicator that consists of a moving average (21-day) along with two
trading bands above (upper band) and below it (lower band). The bands are an indication of volatility,
which are represented by calculating standard deviation. The NEPSE line slightly dropped at the
beginning of the week, touching the lower-band. It however moved upward by the last trading day,
touching the mid-band. The upper and the lower bands have also significantly converged indicating
decreasing volatility in the market.

3. Bollinger Bands (Jan 02, 2014 – Feb 26, 2015)
Overview:
Nepse ended on a negative note this week as it closed lower by -3.38 points (or -0.34%) to end at
979.27 points. Although Nepse increased on the last day, it still ended in the red zone. The average
daily market volume declined this week to NRP 21.65 crores from NRP 29.74 crores the week prior.
The 50-day moving average is still increasing at a higher rate above the 200-day moving average
suggesting that the overall view of the market remains positive. The RSI declined to 58.08 levels and
maintained within the neutral zone. The MACD line is moving below the signal line towards the zero
line indicating that the overall market momentum remains in the downward direction; however, if this
line crosses below the zero line, this would indicate a sell trigger. The Bollinger Bands indicate a
decline in the market volatility as Nepse moved closer to the mid-band. Nepse has been able to
maintain above its support level of 972.17 points during the past three weeks. If Nepse falls below this
support level with increasing volume, the next closest support level stands at 938.41 points.

4. k|fljlws ljZn]if0f
ahf/ ;f/f+z -kmfNu'0f !%, @)&! ;Ddsf]_
aGb cªs -kmfNu'0f !$_ (&(=@&
pRr cªs - kmfNu'0f !$_ (&(=@&
;fKtflxs kl/jt{g –#=#* ( –)=#$ k|ltzt)
b}lgs cf};t Jofkf/ ¿=@!=^% s/f]8
s'n ;fKtflxs Jofkf/ ¿= !=)* ca{
tTsflng 6]jf !)#^=(*
tTsflng k|lt/f]w (&@=!&
cf/P;cfO{ %*=)*
PdP;L8L &=@%
l;Ugn nfO{g !!=##
Nepse (Jan 01, 2014 – Feb 26, 2015)

5. l/n]l6j :6«]Gy OG8]S; -cf/P;cfO{_
cf/P;cfO{ k|fljlws ljZn]if0fsf] o:tf] cf}hf/ xf], h;nfO{ Pstlkm{ ?kdf rln/x]sf] ahf/df Jofkf/ /0fgLlt
agfpg a9L pkof]uL dflgG5 . To;}u/L, o;n] ahf/df vl/b / ljlqmsf] :ki6 ;+s]t b]vfpg] u5{ . of]
;ftfsf] z'?jftL lbgdf cf/P;cfO{ s]xL tn emg{ uO{ Go"6«n hf]gdf /xg uof] . ;ftfsf] dWo lt/ %!=&#
df em/]sf] cf/P;cfO{ ;ftfsf] cGTo lt/ dfly cfO{ %*=)* sf] l:ylt df aGb x'g uof] .
RSI (Jan 02, 2014 – Feb 26, 2015)
d'leª Pe/]h sGeh]{G; 8fOeh]{G; -PdP;L8L_
PdP;L8Ldf b'O{ cf]6f /]vf x'G5g, h;df Pp6fn] ahf/sf] lbzf kl/jt{gsf] ;+s]t u5{ eg] csf]{n] ahf/sf]
k|j[lQ -6«]08_ b]vfpg] u5{ . olb PdP;L8L /]vfn] l;Ung /]vfnfO{ tnaf6 dfly sf6]df o;nfO{ ;sf/fTds
;+s]tsf ?kdf lnO{G5 / o;n] z]o/x? lsGg] ;+s]t ub{5 . PdP;L8L nfOg of] ;ftf l;Ugn nfOg eGbf
tn g} /xg uof] h;sf] kmn:j?k ahf/sf] ultlzntfdf lu/fj6 g} /xof] . xfnsf] l:yltdf PdP;L8L zGo"
nfO{gsf] glhs al9 /x]sf] l:ylt 5 . zGo" nfO{g eGbf tn e/]df o;n] ahf/df a]Rg] xf]8afhLsf] ;+s]t
ub{5 .
MACD (Jan 02, 2014 – Feb 26, 2015)

6. af]lnªu/ Aof08
af]lnªu/ Aof08 Ps k|fljlws ljZn]if0f ;"rs xf] h;df @!–lbg] d'leË Pe/]hsf ;fy b'O{ Aof08 -Pp6f
dfly_ / Pp6f tn_ x'G5g . lo Aof08x?n] cl:y/tfsf] ;+s]t ub{5g, h'g :6fG88{ 8]leP;g u0fgf u/]/
kQf nufO{G5 . of] ;ftfsf] z'?df g]K;] kl/;"rs s]xL tn emg{ uO{ tNnf] Aof08 5'g k'u]sf] 5 t/ ;f]xL
kl/;"rsn] ;ftfsf] cGto lt/ dWo Aof08 5'g k'Uof] . dflyNnf] tyf tNnf] Aof08 of] ;ftf emg glhs
cfPsf] cj:yfn] ahf/sf] cl:y/tfdf xfn s]xL sdL cfPtf klg o;n] eljiodf cl:yt/tf lgDtofpg
;Sg] ;+Defjgf pRr /x]sf] ;+s]t ub{5 .
Bollinger Bands (Jan 02, 2014 – Feb 26, 2015)
;du{dfM
of] ;ftf g]K;] kl/;"rsdf ;fdfGo lu/fj6 cfO{ ahf/ (&(=@& -–#=#* cÍsf] jf –)=#$Ü_ sf] l:yltdf
aGb x'g uof] . ;ftfsf] cGtodf s]xL ;'wf/ b]lvPtf klg ;du|df ahf/df lu/fj6 g} /xof] . ahf/sf]
k|lt lbg cf};t /sddf lu/fj6 cfO{ cf};tdf k|lt lbg ?=@!=^% s/f]8sf] sf/f]af/ x'g uof] . %)–lbg]
d'leË Pe/]hn] @))–lbg] d'leË Pe/]hnfO{ sf6L dfly /x]sf] cj:yf / ;f]df cfPsf] ultn] ahf/df
cem} ;sf/fTds ;+s]tx? g} oyfjt /x]sf 5g . of] ;ftf cf/P;cfO{ %*=)* cªsdf sfod /xg uof]
h;n] ahf/ cem} klg Go"6«n l:ylt g} sfod /x]sf] ;+s]t ub{5 . PdP;L8L nfOg l;Ugn nfOg eGbf
tn /xof] h;n] ahf/sf] ultlzntfdf lu/fj6 sf] cj:yf g} sfod u/fof] . o; PdP;L8L nfOgn]
zGo" nfOgnfO{ 5'g uPdf o;n] ahf/df a]Rg] xf]8afhLsf] ;+s]t ub{5 . af]lnªu/ Aof08n] ahf/sf]
cl:y/tfdf xfn s]xL sdL cfPtf klg o;n] eljiodf cl:yt/tf lgDtofpg ;Sg] ;+Defjgf pRr
/x]sf] ;+s]t ub{5 . g]K;] kl/;"rs of] ;ftf cfkmgf] tTsfnLg 6]jf cªs (&@=!& eGbf dfly g} /xg
uof] / of] kl/;"rs tTsfnLg 6]jf cªs eGbf tn emg{ uPdf csf]{ 6]jf cªs (#*=$! /xg] 5 .