Technical analysis of Nepal Stock Exchange (Nepse) index for the week from Mar 09, 2015 to Mar 12, 2015. The technical analysis includes summary, RSI, MACD and Bollinger band analysis. The analysis is done by Kriti Capital & Investments Ltd.

1. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
1. Market Summary (as of Mar 13 , 2015)
NEPSE at close last week (Mar 12, 2015) 978.44
NEPSE high last week (Mar 12, 2015) 988.77
Weekly Change -5.05 (or -0.51%)
Daily Volume (Avg.) NPR 26.41 crores
Total Traded Amount (weekly) NPR 1.06 billion
Immediate Resistance 1036.98
Immediate Support 972.17
RSI 52.66
MACD Line 5.40
Signal Line 7.03
2. Market Trend
Nepse (Jan 01, 2014 – Mar 13, 2015)

2. 3. RSI
RSI is a form of leading indicator that is believed to be most effective during periods of sideways
movement. Such indicators may create numerous buy and sell signals that are useful when the market
is not clearly trending upwards or downwards. The RSI made a gradual descend this week, but still
maintaining within the neutral zone. RSI, at the beginning of the week, was 62.39 levels. However, by
the close of the trading week, the RSI went down to 52.66 levels.
RSI (Jan 01, 2014 – Mar 13, 2015)
4. MACD
The MACD is a momentum oscillator formed by using two different types of moving averages, which
provides specific buying or selling signals. When a MACD line crosses above the signal line, it is
considered to be a positive sign and indicates a time to buy, and vice-versa. The MACD line was
below the Signal line throughout the week, and it continued the downward momentum by the end of
this week as well. However, by the end of the trading week, MACD seems to be touching the signal
line. If the MACD makes a crossover above the signal line, it indicates a buy signal in the market.
MACD (Jan 01, 2014 – Mar 13, 2015)
5. Bollinger Bands
The Bollinger Band is a technical indicator that consists of a moving average (21-day) along with two
trading bands above (upper band) and below it (lower band). The bands are an indication of volatility,
which are represented by calculating standard deviation. The NEPSE index had crossed above the mid-
band this week, and moved closer towards the upper-band. However, by the end of this week, it made
a slight fall back at the mid-band. The upper and the lower bands continue to converge indicating a
decreasing volatility in the market.

3. Bollinger Bands (Jan 01, 2014 – Mar 13, 2015)
Overview:
NEPSE ended on a negative note this week as it closed lower by -5.62 points (or -0.57%) to end at
978.44 points. Nepse decreased throughout the week, closing lower than the week’s average of 983.93.
The average daily market volume increased this week to NRP 26.41 crores from NRP 23.06 crores the
week prior. The 50-day moving average is still increasing at a higher rate above the 200-day moving
average suggesting that the overall view of the market remains positive. The RSI decreased throughout
the week to end at 52.66 levels, and still maintained within the neutral zone. The MACD line is
moving close with the signal line. However, if this line crosses above the signal line, this would
indicate a buy trigger. The Bollinger Bands indicate a decline in the market volatility as Nepse moved
back towards the mid-band by the end of this week. Nepse still has not been able to move below its
support level of 972.17 points for the past five weeks. If Nepse falls below this support level with
increasing volume, the next closest support level stands at 938.41 points.

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aGb cªs -kmfNu'0f @*_ (&*=$$
pRr cªs -uPsf] ;ftf_ (**=&&
;fKtflxs kl/jt{g –%=)% -–)=%! k|ltzt_
b}lgs cf};t Jofkf/ ¿=@^=$! s/f]8
s'n ;fKtflxs Jofkf/ ¿= !=)^ ca{
tTsflng 6]jf !)#^=(*
tTsflng k|lt/f]w (&@=!&
cf/P;cfO{ %@=^^
PdP;L8L %=$)
l;Ugn nfO{g &=)#
Nepse (Jan 01, 2014 – Mar 13, 2015)

5. l/n]l6j :6«]Gy OG8]S; -cf/P;cfO{_
cf/P;cfO{ k|fljlws ljZn]if0fsf] o:tf] cf}hf/ xf], h;nfO{ Pstlkm{ ?kdf rln/x]sf] ahf/df Jofkf/ /0fgLlt
agfpg a9L pkof]uL dflgG5 . To;}u/L, o;n] ahf/df vl/b / ljlqmsf] :ki6 ;+s]t b]vfpg] u5{ .
of] uPsf] ;ftf cf/P;cfO{ s]xL tn em/] klg ahf/ Go"6«n cj:yf df g} /xg uof] . ;ftfsf] z'?sf] lbgdf
^@=#( /x]sf] cf/P;cfO{ ;ftfsf] cGTo lt/ tn em/L %@=^^ sf] l:ylt df aGb x'g uof] .
RSI (Jan 01, 2014 – Mar 13, 2015)
d'leª Pe/]h sGeh]{G; 8fOeh]{G; -PdP;L8L_
PdP;L8Ldf b'O{ cf]6f /]vf x'G5g, h;df Pp6fn] ahf/sf] lbzf kl/jt{gsf] ;+s]t u5{ eg] csf]{n] ahf/sf]
k|j[lQ -6«]08_ b]vfpg] u5{ . olb PdP;L8L /]vfn] l;Ung /]vfnfO{ tnaf6 dfly sf6]df o;nfO{ ;sf/fTds
;+s]tsf ?kdf lnO{G5 / o;n] z]o/x? lsGg] ;+s]t ub{5 .
o; uPsf] ;ftf PdP;L8L nfO{g w]/} h;f] l;Ugn nfOg eGbf tn g} /xof] h;n] ahf/sf] ultlzntfdf
lu/fj6 g} /x]sf] ;+s]t u/of] . t/ ;ftfsf] cGto lt/ PdP;L8L nfO{g n] l;Ugn nfO{g 5'g k'u]sf] 5 .
PdP;L8L nfO{g n] l;Ugn nfO{g nfO{ sf6]/ dflysf] tkm{ a9]df o;n] ahf/df lsGg] xf]8afhLsf] ;+s]t
ub{5 .
MACD (Jan 01, 2014 – Mar 13, 2015)

6. af]lnªu/ Aof08
af]lnªu/ Aof08 Ps k|fljlws ljZn]if0f ;"rs xf] h;df @!–lbg] d'leË Pe/]hsf ;fy b'O{ Aof08 -Pp6f
dfly_ / Pp6f tn_ x'G5g . lo Aof08x?n] cl:y/tfsf] ;+s]t ub{5g, h'g :6fG88{ 8]leP;g u0fgf u/]/
kQf nufO{G5 .
of] uPsf] ;ftf g]K;] kl/;"rsn] dWo Aof08 sf6L pKknf] Aof08 glhs k'u]sf] 5 . t/ ;ftfsf] cGto
lt/ g]K;] kl/;"rs km]l/ dWo Aof08 glhs k'u]sf] 5 . dflyNnf] tyf tNnf] Aof08 of] ;ftf klg glhs
cfPsf] cj:yfn] ahf/sf] cl:y/tfdf xfn s]xL sdL cfPtf klg o;n] eljiodf cl:yt/tf lgDtofpg
;Sg] ;+Defjgf pRr /x]sf] ;+s]t cem} ub{5 .
Bollinger Bands (Jan 01, 2014 – Mar 13, 2015)
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of] uPsf] ;ftf g]K;] kl/;"rs –%=^@ cªn] tn em/L (&*=$$cªs df aGb eof] . of] uPsf] ;ftf
g]K;] kl/;"rsdf k|fo lu/fj6 g} cfof] . ahf/sf] cf};t sf/f]af/ /sddf uPsf] ;ftf j[l4 x'g uO{ ?=
@^=$! s/f]8 x'g uof] hf] Tof] eGbf cufl8sf] ;ftf ?= @#=)^ s/f]8 lyof] . %)–lbg] d'leË Pe/]hn]
@))–lbg] d'leË Pe/]hnfO{ sf6L dfly /x]sf] cj:yf / ;f]df cfPsf] ultn] ahf/df cem} ;sf/fTds
;+s]tx? g} oyfjt /x]sf 5g . of] uPsf] ;ftf klg cf/P;cfO{ 36g] s|d hf/L /xL %@=^^ cªsdf
sfod /xg uof] h;n] ahf/ cem} klg Go"6«n l:ylt g} sfod /x]sf] ;+s]t ub{5 . PdP;L8L nfOg
l;Ung nfO{g ;Fu ;Fu} rln/x]sf] cj:yf /xof] / of] nfO{g l;Ugn nfO{gnfO{ sf6L dfly uPdf o;n]
ahf/df lsGg] xf]8afhLsf] ;+s]t ub{5 . af]lnªu/ Aof08n] ahf/sf] cl:y/tfdf xfn s]xL sdL cfPtf
klg o;n] eljiodf cl:yt/tf lgDtofpg ;Sg] ;+Defjgf pRr /x]sf] ;+s]t ub{5 . g]K;] kl/;"rs of]
;ftf cfkmgf] tTsfnLg 6]jf cªs (&@=!& eGbf dfly g} /xg uof] / of] kl/;"rs tTsfnLg 6]jf cªs
eGbf tn emg{ uPdf csf]{ 6]jf cªs (#*=$! /xg] 5 .