The document discusses allocating a global target for reducing agricultural emissions to meet the 2°C warming limit. It evaluates 9 approaches to allocating mitigation targets among countries based on principles like responsibility, capability, and equality. Results show most countries would need to reduce emissions by 0-30% under a historical responsibility allocation, while many developing countries could increase emissions under an equal per capita emissions approach. The mitigation targets of 11 countries aligned with 1.5-2°C limits, indicating high ambition is needed from other countries to meet global goals.

1. Meryl Richards (presented by Lini Wollenberg)
CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security
(CCAFS)
National contributions to climate
change mitigation from
agriculture: allocating a global
target
AgriGHG 2018
Berlin
Richards, M., Wollenberg, E., & van Vuuren, D. (2018). National Contributions to
climate change mitigation from agriculture: allocating a global target. Climate
Policy, 0(0), 1–15. http://doi.org/10.1080/14693062.2018.1430018

2. Meeting the 2°C or 1.5°C goals requires mitigation of
agricultural emissions
Baseline emissions
van Vuuren et al. 2011
Emissions under the
2°C scenario

3. 0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
1970 1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090 2110
Emissionsfromagriculture(GtCO2e/yr)
Agriculture will need
to limit its emissions
to about
6-8 Gigatonnes
CO2 equivalents per
year by 2030
This requires
mitigation of
1 Gigatonne
per year
based on our
current trajectory.
The agriculture sector must reduce methane and nitrous oxide
emissions by 1 Gigatonne per year by 2030 to stay within the 2°C limit
Baseline
2°C scenario
Wollenberg et al. 2016

4. What does this mean at the country level?
Mitigation of
1
Gigatonne
per year
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?

5. Principles for allocating targets
UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (1992):
Parties to take action to mitigate climate change ‘on the
basis of equity and in accordance with their common but
differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities’
Paris Agreement (2015):
Implementation to ‘reflect equity and the principle of
common but differentiated responsibilities and respective
capabilities, in light of differing national circumstances’
Eliminated the distinction between Annex 1 and non-
Annex 1 countries

6. Approaches for allocating targets
Principles of effort
sharing
Approach
Responsibility
1. Cumulative emissions from all sectors 1890-2010
2. Cumulative agricultural emissions 1960-2010
Capability
3. Cumulative agricultural emissions and gross domestic
product, weighted equally
4. Cumulative agricultural emissions and human development
index, weighted equally
Equality
5. Equal agricultural emissions per capita, with convergence by
2030
6. Equal agricultural emissions per capita, with convergence by
2050
Responsibility,
capability and need
7. Responsibility and capability index per the Climate Equity
Reference Calculator (Kemp-Benedict et al., 2017)
Equal cumulative
per capita emissions
8. Equal cumulative agricultural emissions per capita 1960–
2030, per Pan et al. (2014)
9. Equal cumulative agricultural emissions per capita 1960–
2050, per Pan et al. (2014)

7. Approaches for allocating targets
Principles of effort
sharing
Approach
Responsibility
1. Cumulative emissions from all sectors 1890-2010
2. Cumulative agricultural emissions 1960-2010
Capability
3. Cumulative agricultural emissions and gross domestic
product, weighted equally
4. Cumulative agricultural emissions and human development
index, weighted equally
Equality
5. Equal agricultural emissions per capita, with convergence by
2030
6. Equal agricultural emissions per capita, with convergence by
2050
Responsibility,
capability and need
7. Responsibility and capability index per the Climate Equity
Reference Calculator (Kemp-Benedict et al., 2017)
Equal cumulative
per capita emissions
8. Equal cumulative agricultural emissions per capita 1960–2030
(Pan et al., 2014)
9. Equal cumulative agricultural emissions per capita 1960–
2050 (Pan et al., 2014)

8. Results: Cumulative agricultural emissions
1960-2010
-10% -9%
-19%
-100%
0%
Developed
countries
Least
developed
countries
Other
developing
countries
Baseline emissions
Medianmitigationtargetin2030
(changeagainstbaselineemissions)
100% reduction in
emissions
If the target was allocated according to each country's historical
contribution to emissions from agriculture, most countries would
have mitigation targets between 0-30%.

9. Results: Equal cumulative agricultural emissions
per capita 1960–2050
Medianmitigationtargetin2030
(changeagainstbaselineemissions)
-106%
17%
33%
Developed
countries
Least
developed
countries
Other
developing
countries
100% increase in
emissions
Baseline emissions
100% reduction in
emissions
If the target was allocated such that all countries have equal
cumulative emissions from agriculture by 2050, many developing
countries could increase their emissions from agriculture and still
meet their targets.

10. Comparison with NDC targets
The 11 countries that
estimated mitigation
targets from agriculture
and land use in their NDCs
were aligned with the
ambition needed to limit
warming to 1.5 or 2°C.

11. It will take similarly high levels of ambition from other
countries and financial support to meet the 1.5 or 2°C
targets.
Average annual public finance investment in mitigation
2015/2016 Billion USD (Buchner et al. 2017)

12. Richards, M., Wollenberg, E., & van Vuuren, D. (2018). National Contributions to
climate change mitigation from agriculture: allocating a global target. Climate
Policy. http://doi.org/10.1080/14693062.2018.1430018
Meryl Richards and Lini Wollenberg
CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security
(CCAFS)
Thank you!
21 September 2018
SBSTA 44, Bonn

13. References
• Buchner, B. K., Oliver, P., Wang, X., Carswell, C., Meattle, C., Mazza, F., …Wabbels, S.
(2017). Global landscape of climate finance 2017. London: Climate Policy Initiative.
• Kemp-Benedict, E., Holz, C., Baer, P., Athanaisou, T., & Kartha, S. (2017). The climate
equity reference calculator.Berkeley,CA:Climate Equity Reference Project (EcoEquity
and Stockholm Environment Institute). Retrieved from
https://calculator.climateequityreference.org
• Pan, X., Teng, F., & Wang, G. (2014). Sharing emission space at an equitable basis:
Allocation scheme based on the equal cumulative emission per capita principle. Applied
Energy, 113, 1810–1818. doi:10.1016/j.apenergy.2013.07.021
• Richards, M., Wollenberg, E., & van Vuuren, D. (2018). National Contributions to climate
change mitigation from agriculture: allocating a global target. Climate Policy.
http://doi.org/10.1080/14693062.2018.1430018
• van Vuuren, D. P., Stehfest, E., den Elzen, M. G. J., Kram, T., van Vliet, J., Deetman,
S.,…van Ruijven, B. (2011). RCP2.6: exploring the possibility to keep global mean
temperature increase below 2°C. Climatic Change, 109,95–116. doi:10.1007/s10584-
011-0152-3
• Wollenberg, E., Richards, M., Smith, P., Havlík, P., Obersteiner, M., Tubiello, F.
N.,…Campbell, B. M. (2016). Reducing emissions from agriculture to meet the 2°C
target. Global Change Biology, 22, 3859–3864. doi:10.1111/gcb.13340

14. Approaches used for calculating country-
level mitigation targets (Table 1)

15. Schematic representation of equal
cumulative emissions per capita approach

16. Results: Cumulative agricultural emissions
1960-2010
If the target was allocated according to each country's historical
contribution to emissions from agriculture, most countries would
have mitigation targets between 0-30%.

17. Results: Equal cumulative agricultural emissions
per capita 1960–2050
If the target was allocated such that all countries have equal
cumulative emissions from agriculture by 2050, many developing
countries could increase their emissions from agriculture and still
meet their targets.

18. NDC mitigation contributions (Table 4)