This document summarizes a case study on the dairy value chain in China. It finds that milk production and consumption have significantly increased in China from 1978 to 2018. Large-scale dairy farms now dominate production. The study evaluates greenhouse gas emissions from different stages and finds feed production is a major contributor. It models options to reduce the carbon footprint, finding improving feed practices and yield have high potential. Land use is also assessed, with soybean meal requiring significant land. Recommendations include changing feeds to lower land and carbon impacts.

1. Case study on dairy value chain in China
Hongmin Dong1 Sha Wei1 Lini Wollenberg2
Institute of Environment and Sustainable Development in Agricultural, Chinese Academy of
Agricultural Sciences
CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS)
Gund Institute for Environment, University of Vermont

2. 0
20
40
60
0
20
40
60
80
1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 2003 2008 2013 2018
Consumption
ratio
of
milk
(%)
Year
Consumption ratio
Conmsumption amount
Production amount
Production
and
consumption
amount
of
milk
(Million
ton)
Trend of production and consumption of milk in China
• The production amount of milk in 2018 increased 34.9 times compared with 1978
• The consumption amount of milk in 2018 increased 15.8 times compared with 1978
• The consumption ratio of milk to total animal product consumption increased from 18.1% in
1978 to 22.0% in 2018

3. Development of dairy sector in China
• Dairy cattle population has increased 16.2 times from 0.64 million in 1980 to 10.38 million in 2018
• Productivity has also increased 1.7 times, from 3200 kg/head/yr in 1980 to 5400 kg/head/yr in 2018
• The proportion of large-scale farms with more than 100 head increased from 12% in 2002 to 58% in 2017

4. Development stages of Chinese dairy industry
 In 2018, Dairy industry revitalization plan
• over 65% dairy cattle are from large-scale (>100 head )
• self-sufficiency of milk maintained above 70%
• The qualified rate of product is over 99%
• The comprehensive utilization rate of livestock manure
is over 75%
Transforming and
upgrading
Stable development
period
Rapid expansion
2008-2016
1997-2007
1979-1996
After 2017
Sustainable
development
Revitalization of dairy industry–safty and green production

5. GHG emission from dairy sector
Enteric CH4
emission
Dairy 11.0 %
Manure CH4
emission
Dairy 6.1%
Manure N2O emission
Dairy 8.9%
Contribution of
different animals
Dairy ranks top 5

6. On September 22, 2020, general secretary Xi Jinping solemnly declared in the
general debate of the seventy-fifth UN General Assembly:
• China will enhance its independent contribution and adopt more effective
policies and measures
• Carbon dioxide emissions to peak by 2030
• Strive for carbon neutrality by 2060
New requirements and targets for carbon reduction
• CO2 emissions per unit of GDP shall reduce by 18% in the 14th Five-Year period
• Make plan to achieve the peaking of carbon dioxide emissions around 2030 and
making best efforts to peak early
• Implement a system with carbon intensity mainly and total carbon emission control
auxiliary
• Make efforts to control CH4, hydrofluorocarbons, perfluorocarbons and other GHGs
Outline of 14st-five plan and long term goals for 2035 in China
Goal of carbon peaking and neutralization

7. Assessment of improvement options
System boundary Assessment unit
Milk powder
Fresh milk

8. Carbon footprint of Chinese dairy sector
Basic information of case study farm
• The total stock number of case study farm is 1677 head
• The proportion of adult cow (milking cows and dry cows) is 47.2%.
• The average milk yield was 8.68 t (head yr)-1
• The milk protein and fat were 3.37% and 4.00%
Items Unit Value Source
Electricity consumption MW·
h/yr 1800 Farm survey
Diesel consumption L/yr 53664 Farm survey
Raw milk use for milk powder ton/ton 8 Processing survey
Raw milk use for fresh milk ton/ton 0.95 Processing survey
Electricity consumption-milk powder kwh/ton milk powder 700 Processing survey
Natural gas-milk powder m3/ton 420 Processing survey
Electricity consumption-fresh milk kwh/ton fresh milk 95 Processing survey
Natural gas-fresh milk m3/ton 30 Processing survey
Raw material and energy consumption use during milk production in China: on-farm and processing stages

9. Carbon footprint of Chinese dairy sector
CF and key contribution stage
• Allocated carbon footprint was 1.92 kg CO2-eq kg-1 FPCM
• Lower than the average CO2-eq in global, but higher than US (1.2),
Irish (1.2), Australian (1.1 kg), Canada (0.92 kg), New Zealand
(0.78 kg) and EU (0.6-1.5 kg). There is a big gap on carbon
footprint between this cased study farm and other countries.
• The key contributions of GHG emission are feed production and
processing > enteric fermentation > energy consumption > manure
application > transport > manure management
• GHG emissions per tonne of milk powder was 8.6 times higher
than per tonne of fresh milk, at 16.66 kg CO2-eq kg-1 milk powder.

10. Carbon footprint of Chinese dairy sector without processing stage
Mitigation options and potential
• Practice for increasing milk yield had the highest mitigation potential (-22.5%)
• The CF of feed mitigation would decline by 19.4% compared with baseline S0
• Combination scenario (S6) had the highest mitigation potential (-33.3%) to close the gap compared with
other scenarios in China, and the carbon footprint of milk is 1.28kg CO2-eq/kg FPCM.

11. Land use for dairy production
Feed type Feed input
(t/yr) Yield (t/ha) Land use
(ha)
Roughage
Corn silage 10000 67.50 148.15
Imported Alfalfa 600 8.15 73.66
Leymus 400 4.50 88.89
Oat grass 400 15.00 26.67
Cotton seed a 400 1.76 348.94
Concentrated feed
Corn 1200 7.52 159.51
Soybean meal b 1200 2.10 714.13
Cottonseed meal c 200 348.94
Brewer's grains d 1800
Barley 864 7.50 115.20
Rice 360 7.06 51.00
Total land use (ha) 2075.08
Total FPCM (ton) 9117.28
Land use per ton FPCM (ha) 0.23
Land use per ton fresh milk (ha) 0.22
Land use per ton milk power (ha) 1.82
 Land use per ton FPCM was estimated at 0.23 ha
 Soybean meal accounted for 34.4% of the land
footprint, followed by cotton seed and cottonseed
meal. Corn and corn silage accounted for 7.7%
and 7.1% of the total land use
 Land use per ton of milk powder was 7.6 times
higher than that for fresh milk, at 1.82 ha kg-1 milk
powder.

12. Conclusions and recommendations
 There is obvious GHG emission reduction potential both on-farm and in the value chain.
 Feed was a key hotspot of GHG emissions in this farm, changing feed composition and feeding
regime would not only reduce GHG emissions per unit of milk produced, but also reduce the land
use requirements to produce each kg of milk.
 Due to the high land use and import dependence, identifying other protein feeds, such as beet
meal, rapeseed meal or distiller’s grains, to replace soybean feed is suggested to reduce the
carbon and land footprint of China’s dairy value chain.
 Energy efficiency interventions may be key in the milk powder production stage