This session will provide an overview of what climate change means for agriculture in Eastern Ontario. What does current scientific understanding predict for this region when it comes to growing conditions in the coming years? Concepts of adaptation and mitigation will be discussed, providing producers with practical suggestions to meet challenges and access opportunities that might arise from climate change. Current research and policy initiatives, designed to contribute to the resilience of the agriculture sector, will be introduced.

1. CLIMATE CHANGE AND
AGRICULTURE: CURRENT
SCIENTIFIC UNDERSTANDING
EASTERN ONTARIO LOCAL FOOD CONFERENCE 2016
NOVEMBER 23, 2016 BELLEVILLE, ON
AL DOUGLAS, OCCIAR

2. Observed AnnualTemperature Change 1901-2012
IPCC 2013
↑ 0.85°C

3. Consistency Among Global Observations

4. Climate Trends & Observations: Ontario
Trends in annual mean
temperature for 1948–2012
Temperature is rising…
Trends in annual total
precipitation for 1948–2012
Precipitation is increasing…
Vincent et al., 2015

5. Climate Projections for Ontario
Ontario’s average annual
temperature is projected to
increase by 5 to 6°C from 2083 to
2093, under a 4°C global warming
scenario
Change (%) in average annual
precipitation in Ontario under a
4°C increase in global average
annual temperature, from 2083 to
2093
Colombo et al. 2015

6. Confidence in Climate Change Model Results is not
Uniform
N. Comer, 2016

7. A LOCAL PERSPECTIVE…

8. Climate Change Hazards Information Portal (CCHIP)
 Web-based tool that helps
empower organizations of all
sizes and capacities to
integrate climate change
impacts into their planning
and design decisions.
 E.g. CCHIP can help farmers
better prepare for the prime
grape growing conditions
heading for their region.

9. Belleville:
Mean Daily Temperature (Annual)
CCHIP, 2016

10. Belleville:
Mean Daily Temperature (Summer)
CCHIP, 2016

11. Belleville:
Precipitation (Annual)
CCHIP, 2016

12. Belleville:
Precipitation (Summer)
CCHIP, 2016

13. Belleville:
Temperature and Precipitation
Belleville Annual Summer
Trend - Historical mean daily temperature (1950-2013) 2.2°C 1.3°C
Station average (1981-2010) 8.1°C 20.6°C
RCP8.5 2020s mean temperature 9.5°C 21.9°C
RCP8.5 2050s mean temperature 11.5° 23.8°C
RCP8.5 2080s mean temperature 13.7°C 26.1°C
Trend - Historical total precipitation (1950-2013) 42.3 mm 36.5 mm
Station average (1981-2010) 914.0 mm 218.4 mm
RCP8.5 2020s total precipitation 943.1 mm 218.9 mm
RCP8.5 2050s total precipitation 981.3 mm 216.4 mm
RCP8.5 2080s total precipitation 1006.6 mm 211.5 mm
CCHIP, 2016

14. Belleville:
Monthly Freeze-thaw Cycles and Daily Frost
 Free-thaw cycles projected to:
 Decrease in the spring and fall
 Decrease in December, remain unchanged in January, and
increase in February.
 Frost free days
 projected to increase
CCHIP, 2016

15. Trenton:
Growing Degree Days
Trenton A Start Day End Day
Average Growing Season 101 290 (189 days)
Projected RCP 8.5 2020s average growing season 93 298 (205 days)
Projected RCP 8.5 2050s average growing season 82 311 (229 days)
Projected RCP 8.5 2100s average growing season 75 322 (247 days)
CCHIP, 2016

16. Climate Change Extremes and Ontario Agriculture /
Carleton University
Zaytseva, Carleton University 2016

17. Growing Degree Days and Growing Seasons
18
Baseline: Effective
Growing Degree Days
(1971-2000)
Climate Change Scenario:
Effective Growing Degree
Days (2010-2039)
Baseline: Growing
Season (1971-2000)
Climate Change
Scenario: Growing
Season (2010-2039)
Source:AAFC, 2014

18. TOOLS AND RESOURCES

19. Risk andVulnerability Assessments
Black, Bruce, Egener (2014)
Gleeson, Gray, Douglas, Lemieux, Nielsen (2011)

20. Ontario Climate and Agriculture Assessment
Framework (OCAAF)
 OCAAF is a regional framework to
assess baseline and future agroclimatic
risks and opportunities.
Goals
 To inform policy, program and
management choices so as to maintain
or enhance agricultural productivity
under a changing climate.
 To help prepare for the impacts of
climate change and develop adaptation
options.
Funding from New Directions Program at OMAFRA

21. Project Administration
Al Douglas, OCCIAR
Annette Morand, OCCIAR
Collaborating Specialists
Dr. Neil Comer, Risk Sciences International
Erik Sparling, Risk Sciences International
Heather Auld, Risk Sciences International
Don Robinson, ESSA Technologies
Jimena Eyzaguirre, ESSA Technologies
Patricia De La Cueva Bueno, ESSA Technologies
Tim Webb, ESSA Technologies
University Researchers
Dr. Vincent Cheng, University of Toronto
Dr. Carole Lafrenière, Université du Québec en Abitibi-Témiscamingue
Supporters: MINISTRY OF
AGRICULTURE,
FOOD AND RURAL
AFFAIRS
Ontario Climate and Agriculture Assessment
Framework (OCAAF)

22. Ontario Climate and Agriculture Assessment
Framework (OCAAF)
Objectives
 Build an adaptable, transportable,
translatable, and functionally expandable
risk-opportunity assessment framework.
 Apply the framework to 2 regions and
production systems:
 Forage-based beef production in
Ontario’s Clay Belt
 Corn production in southwestern
Ontario
 Analyze decadal regional climate change
risks and opportunities out to 2050.
 Make recommendations about
adaptation in policy and programs for
Ontario.
 Disseminate findings on risks,
opportunities and adaptive options.

23. THANKYOU
AL DOUGLAS
adouglas@mirarco.org