Mitigation from agriculture: What are fair, ambitious targets?

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CCAFS | CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security

Presentation by Dr. Meryl Richards at the UN Climate Conference in Bonn, 18 May 2016. Read more about this work https://ccafs.cgiar.org/MitigationTargetAgriculture

With L. Wollenberg, P. Smith, P. Havlík, M. Obersteiner, F.N. Tubiello, M. Herold,
P. Gerber, S. Carter, A. Reisinger, D. van Vuuren, A. Dickie, H. Neufeldt, B.O.
Sander, R. Wassmann, R. Sommer, J.E. Amonette, A. Falcucci, M. Herrero, C.
Opio, R. Roman-Cuesta, E. Stehfest, H. Westhoek, I. Ortiz-Monasterio, T.
Sapkota, M.C. Rufino, P.K. Thornton, L. Verchot, P.C. West, J.-F. Soussana, T.
Baedeker, M. Sadler, S. Vermeulen, B.M. Campbell
Meryl Richards
CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security
(CCAFS)
Mitigation from agriculture:
What are fair, ambitious targets?
18 May 2016
SBSTA 44, Bonn

Meeting the 2°C goal requires mitigation from agriculture
Baseline emissions
van Vuuren et al. 2011
Emissions under the
2°C scenario

Countries are planning action in agriculture

0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
1970 1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090 2110
Emissionsfromagriculture(GtCO2e/yr)
Agriculture will need
to limit its emissions
to about
6-8 Gigatonnes
CO2 equivalents per
year by 2030
This requires
mitigation of
1 Gigatonne
per year
based on our
current trajectory.
The agriculture sector must reduce methane and nitrous oxide
emissions by 1 Gigatonne per year by 2030 to stay within the 2°C limit
Baseline
2°C scenario
van Vuuren et al. 2011

What does this mean at the country level?
Mitigation of
1
Gigatonne
per year
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?

Allocating the target based on cumulative
agricultural emissions
•  Cumulative historical agricultural emissions 1990-2010
•  Capability to mitigate
➕ Gross domestic product (GDP)
➕ Human development index (HDI)
•  Equal per-capita emissions in 2030

Cumulative agricultural emissions 1990-2010
14
12
9
8 7
3 3 3 2 2 1 1 1
12
21
0
5
10
15
20
GigatonnesCO2e
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
GigatonnesCO2e

136 Mt
17%
118 Mt
30%
90 Mt
22%
76 Mt
15%
74 Mt
13%
11 Mt
10%
13 Mt
7%
11 Mt
15%
0
200
400
600
800
China India EU Brazil USA Vietnam Ethiopia Colombia
MtCO2e
Mitigation targets using cumulative agricultural
emissions 1990-2010

Mitigation targets using equal per-capita emissions
in 2030
0
200
400
600
800
1000
China India EU Brazil USA Vietnam Ethiopia Colombia
2030emissions(MtCO2e)
Baseline
2 degree scenario
27% ↑ 178% ↑
8% ↓
67% ↓
30% ↓
46% ↓
49% ↓
55% ↓

Conclusions
•  ~1 Gt CO2e mitigation needed in 2030
•  Most feasible if all countries participate
•  Can we meet the target?
§  What is possible at the country level?
§  At what cost?
§  Compatibility with food security?

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Scientists have proposed that 1 Gigatonne of annual emissions reductions from agriculture by 2030 will be necessary to stay within the 2°C limit. Emissions reductions would would need to increase in the longer-term. The figure below shows estimated business-as-usual emissions from agriculture in the top line, and the maximum amount of emissions from agriculture in a 2°C world in the bottom line. The gap - 1 Gigagonne - is the aspirational mitigation target. Learn more: http://ccafs.cgiar.org/MitigationTargetAgriculture

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CCAFS | CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security

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1. With L. Wollenberg, P. Smith, P. Havlík, M. Obersteiner, F.N. Tubiello, M. Herold, P. Gerber, S. Carter, A. Reisinger, D. van Vuuren, A. Dickie, H. Neufeldt, B.O. Sander, R. Wassmann, R. Sommer, J.E. Amonette, A. Falcucci, M. Herrero, C. Opio, R. Roman-Cuesta, E. Stehfest, H. Westhoek, I. Ortiz-Monasterio, T. Sapkota, M.C. Rufino, P.K. Thornton, L. Verchot, P.C. West, J.-F. Soussana, T. Baedeker, M. Sadler, S. Vermeulen, B.M. Campbell Meryl Richards CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS) Mitigation from agriculture: What are fair, ambitious targets? 18 May 2016 SBSTA 44, Bonn

2. Meeting the 2°C goal requires mitigation from agriculture Baseline emissions van Vuuren et al. 2011 Emissions under the 2°C scenario

3. Countries are planning action in agriculture

4. 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090 2110 Emissionsfromagriculture(GtCO2e/yr) Agriculture will need to limit its emissions to about 6-8 Gigatonnes CO2 equivalents per year by 2030 This requires mitigation of 1 Gigatonne per year based on our current trajectory. The agriculture sector must reduce methane and nitrous oxide emissions by 1 Gigatonne per year by 2030 to stay within the 2°C limit Baseline 2°C scenario van Vuuren et al. 2011

5. What does this mean at the country level? Mitigation of 1 Gigatonne per year ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?

6. Allocating the target based on cumulative agricultural emissions •  Cumulative historical agricultural emissions 1990-2010 •  Capability to mitigate ➕ Gross domestic product (GDP) ➕ Human development index (HDI) •  Equal per-capita emissions in 2030

7. Cumulative agricultural emissions 1990-2010 14 12 9 8 7 3 3 3 2 2 1 1 1 12 21 0 5 10 15 20 GigatonnesCO2e 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 GigatonnesCO2e

8. 136 Mt 17% 118 Mt 30% 90 Mt 22% 76 Mt 15% 74 Mt 13% 11 Mt 10% 13 Mt 7% 11 Mt 15% 0 200 400 600 800 China India EU Brazil USA Vietnam Ethiopia Colombia MtCO2e Mitigation targets using cumulative agricultural emissions 1990-2010

9. Mitigation targets using equal per-capita emissions in 2030 0 200 400 600 800 1000 China India EU Brazil USA Vietnam Ethiopia Colombia 2030emissions(MtCO2e) Baseline 2 degree scenario 27% ↑ 178% ↑ 8% ↓ 67% ↓ 30% ↓ 46% ↓ 49% ↓ 55% ↓

10. Conclusions •  ~1 Gt CO2e mitigation needed in 2030 •  Most feasible if all countries participate •  Can we meet the target? §  What is possible at the country level? §  At what cost? §  Compatibility with food security?

11. With L. Wollenberg, P. Smith, P. Havlík, M. Obersteiner, F.N. Tubiello, M. Herold, P. Gerber, S. Carter, A. Reisinger, D. van Vuuren, A. Dickie, H. Neufeldt, B.O. Sander, R. Wassmann, R. Sommer, J.E. Amonette, A. Falcucci, M. Herrero, C. Opio, R. Roman-Cuesta, E. Stehfest, H. Westhoek, I. Ortiz-Monasterio, T. Sapkota, M.C. Rufino, P.K. Thornton, L. Verchot, P.C. West, J.-F. Soussana, T. Baedeker, M. Sadler, S. Vermeulen, B.M. Campbell Meryl Richards: meryl.richards@uvm.edu CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS) Thank you! 18 May 2016 SBSTA 44, Bonn

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