Presentation from the OECD Workshop “Assessing the socio-economic losses and damages from climate change” (13 January 2021) - Session 1, Ian Bateman, Professor of Environmental Economics, Director of the Land, Environment, Economics and Policy Institute, University of Exeter; Director of the South West Partnership for Environment & Economic Prosperity

1. Assessing the socio-
economic impacts of
climate change on land use
Professor Ian Bateman OBE, FBA, FRSA, FRSB
Land, Environment, Economics and Policy Institute (LEEP)
University of Exeter Business School, UK
UK Natural Capital Committee
Presented at the “Assessing the socio-economic losses and damages from climate change” workshop
OECD, Paris.
13th January 2021
©Pexels

2. Understanding land use: Integrated modelling
Output prices
Input costs
Technology
Soils
Temperature
Rainfall
Agricultural Policy
Environmental Policy
Intervention
Spatially referenced data for all of GB
2km square resolution; 55,000 cells; about 50 records per cell; data from 1972 to 2015
(Fezzi & Bateman, 2011, 2015, 2019)

3. Validation
Out-of-sample, actual versus predicted tests
Actual Predicted
Actual Predicted
Cereals
Grasslands

4. Actual Predicted
Actual Predicted
Figure!13.3:!Climate!change!impacts!over!the!2014>63!assessment!period:!Mean!
growing!season!(April>Sept.)!air!temperature!and!total!monthly!precipitation.!
Figure!13.3:!Climate!change!impacts!over!the!2014>63!assessment!period:!Mean!
growing!season!(April>Sept.)!air!temperature!and!total!monthly!precipitation.!
2020 2060
20602020
Temperature
Rainfall
Drivers of land use: Climate change

5. Cereals Beef2020
Low High
Changing drivers – Changing land use
e.g. arising from climate change 2020-60
Cereals Beef20202040Cereals Beef202020402060

6. Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) collapse
Incorporating Tipping Points
Farmer et al.,
(2019)
Nature
Geoscience
The AMOC has weakened by approximately 15% in recent years (Caesar et al., 2018, Nature)
AMOC collapse
would leave the UK
colder and drier

7. Net change in
output value p.a. +£40m -£346m
2080
Climate change and climate tipping point impacts on GB agriculture
2020
Climate change does not
exceed tipping point
Climate change exceeds
tipping pointGrassland Arable

8. Timber
N2
O
COCH
Greenhouse gases Recreation
Biodiversity
Food
Incomes
Water
Drivers of change:
Policy, Market &
Environment
Benefits & costs
Market values
Non-market
values
Social Value
Land use

9. The LEEP Natural Environmental Valuation Online (NEVO) tool
Open access, web-based, natural capital decision support tool

10. Day et al (2019)
The LEEP Natural Environmental Valuation Online (NEVO) tool
Open access, web-based, natural capital decision support tool

11. Bateman, I.J. and Mace, G.M. (2020) The natural capital framework for sustainably efficient and equitable decision
making, Nature Sustainability, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41893-020-0552-3 SharedIt link: https://rdcu.be/b5vJI
Bateman, I.J. et al. (2013) Bringing ecosystem services into economic decision making: Land use in the UK, Science,
Vol 341, No. 6141: 45-50, DOI: 10.1126/science.1234379