Mark Rosegrant, Director, Environment and Production Technology Division, IFPRI, USA

1. A Thriving Agriculture Sector
in a Changing Climate:
A Global Perspective for Africa
Mark W. Rosegrant
Division Director
Environment and Production Technology Division
International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI)

2.  Impacts of Climate Change on Agriculture
and Agriculture on Climate Change
 Can Policies, Investments, and
Technologies Provide Food Security with
Climate Adaptation?
 Can Agriculture Provide Significant
Mitigation?
 Policy Implications
Outline

3. Biophysical impacts of
climate change on crop
yields are large Without adoption and economic feedbacks
global maize yields projected 30% lower in
2050 compared to no climate change
Source: IFPRI DSSAT simulations.
(HadGEM2, RCP 8.5)

4. Climate change impacts
are lower with economic
feedback effects
Average of 5 global economic models for coarse grains, rice, wheat, oilseeds & sugar
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
Yields Area Production Prices Trade
Percentchangein2050
SSP1-RCP4.5 SSP2-RCP6.0 SSP3-RCP8.5
Source: Wiebe et al., Environmental Research Letters (2015)

5. 2030 with Climate Change and Alternative Investments
 Uses CC scenario as reference point; overlays scenario that
combines several investments (starting in 2015) targeted at
ameliorating major constraints in global food system
 R&D: CGIAR and national agriculture research system investments
in agricultural R&D to increase agricultural productivity in the
developing world (specified at the crop- and region-specific level
in consultation with other CGIAR centers)
 Water: Expansion of irrigation systems along with enhancing
water use efficiency and soil management (no-till, ISFM,
rainwater harvesting)
 Infrastructure: Investment in transportation and energy sectors to
benefit agricultural production and value chains
Alternative Investment
Scenarios

6. Hunger in 2030 by climate
and investment scenario
(bars showing numbers on the left axis, dots showing shares on the right axis)
Note: 2030-NoCC assumes a constant 2005 climate; 2030-CC reflects climate change using RCP 8.5 and the Hadley Climate Model, and 2030-
COMP assumes climate change plus increased investment in developing country agriculture.
Source: IFPRI, IMPACT model version 3.3, October 2016

7. Reducing Agricultural
GHG Emissions

8. Global Greenhouse Gas
Emissions by Economic
Sector
Electricity and Heat
Production, 25%
Agriculture, Forestry
and Other Land Use,
24%
Industry, 21%
Transportation, 14%
Other Energy, 10%
Buildings,
6%
Total Annual Global GHG
Emissions ~ 46 GtCO2e
Source: IPCC 2014 cited in EPA, https://www.epa.gov/ghgemissions/global-greenhouse-gas-emissions-data

9. Source: CAIT Climate Data Explorer. 2015. Washington, DC: World Resources Institute.
Available online at: http://cait.wri.org.
Agriculture , 20%
Waste , 5%
Land-Use Change
and Forestry, 40%
Energy, 31%
Industrial
Processes, 3%
Share of Greenhouse Gas
by Sector, Sub-Saharan
Africa, 2014

10. Global CO2 Emissions
Source: IWR (2009) and UNFCC (2007.
Map created by Benjamin Hennig, Sasi Research Group, University of Sheffield – www.viewsofttheworld.net

11. Per Capita CO2 Emissions

12. Existing CSA Practices
help, but not enough
Description Maize Wheat Rice
Production (% change) +2.3 ˗ +2.4 +2.3 ˗ +2.2 +2.2 ˗ +2.2
Price (% change) -4.9 ˗ -5.4 -6.2 ˗ -7.3 -7.6 ˗ -7.9
Area (% change) -0.1 ˗ -0.5 -1.0 ˗ -1.2 -1.2 ˗ -1.3
Pop risk of hunger (% change) -3.4 ˗ -3.1
Malnourished children (% change) -0.8 ˗ -0.9
Yearly mean emission reduction
(million tons CO2 eq.)
20.4 ˗ 13.9
 Baseline adoption rates by 2050:
- No-till = 70%
- ISFM = 40%
- AWD = 40%
- UDP = 40%
 Simulations using
IFPRI’s IMPACT
system of models
and DSSAT crop
model
 Maize, Wheat, and
Rice (~41% of global
harvested area)
 Practices: No-till;
Integrated soil
fertility management
(ISFM); Alternate
Wet and Dry (AWD);
Urea deep placement
(UDP)
 Two GCMs: GFDL and
HadGEM, RCP 8.5

13. Potential for Agricultural GHG
Emission Reduction is substantial
(at carbon tax of $20/mt CO2 equivalent)
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
Pasture
management
Livestock
management
Cropland
management
Dietary change Soil carbon
sequestration
GtCO2eperyear
Source: Synthesized from Wollenberg et al. 2016; Smith et al., 2008 and 2013; Del Grosso and Cavigelli
2014; Springmann et al. 2016; Havlík et al. 2014; Stehfest et al. 2013

14.  Pasture management: Improved grasses and pasture management,
use of legumes
 Livestock management: Optimizing animal feed mixtures and feed
additives, improving manure management systems, reproductive
efficiency, breeding for reduced methane emissions
 Cropland management: Improved nitrogen use efficiency through
precision agriculture, slow release fertilizer, N-use efficient new
varieties, stabilized N sources (polymer-coated urea and nitrification
inhibitors), improved rice management, water management to reduce
runoff
 Dietary change: Taxes, education, long-term life-style change
 Soil carbon sequestration: Conservation tillage, integrated soil fertility
management, restoring cultivated organic soils and degraded lands,
retaining crop residues, growing high residue crops
Technologies Considered
for GHG Emissions
Reduction Computations

15. Policy Implications

16. Policy Implications
 Menu of management, technology, and
investment options for adaptation and
mitigation is essentially the same that has
been developed for agricultural productivity
growth
 The same constraints apply: risk, uncertainty,
imperfect markets, lack of credit and insurance
 What difference does Climate Change make?

17. Good Agricultural Policy
 Increased investment in
agricultural R&D
 Increased investments in
irrigation
 Removal of fertilizer, water,
and energy subsidies
Climate Change Policy
 Increased proportion on nitrogen
use efficiency, drought tolerance,
livestock efficiency and GHG
reduction
 Some investments in large dams
due to increased variability; but
greater emphasis in small-scale
irrigation for flexibility
 Same policy: double dividend from
increased production efficiency and
reduced GHG
Climate Change Policy is
Good Agricultural Policy
Plus . . .

18. Good Agricultural Policy
 Agricultural insurance
 Removal of agricultural trade
and macroeconomic
distortions
 Promotion of healthy diets
Climate Change Policy
 Benefits likely higher due to
increased risk; but is insurance
subsidy greater value than other
investments?
 Same policy: higher benefits due to
increased risk of imports under
climate change
 Increased importance due to GHG
emission reductions benefit
Climate Change Policy is
Good Agricultural Policy
Plus . . .

19. Africa Climate Smart Growth:
Rapid Agricultural Growth with
Carbon Offsets from Forests
Agricultural Emission
Reduced Deforestation
Net Change
-1500
-1000
-500
0
500
1000
MtCO2equivalent
Years
Plausible Pathway for Change in Annual GHG emissions from
Agriculture and Forestry
 Potential to save 265 MtCO2eq
annually from African agriculture
by 2030 (Smith et al. 2008)
 But is this compatible with rapid
growth given current emission of
300-400 MtCO2eq?
 Potential GHG emission through
afforestation and reduced
deforestation = 1.9 BtCO2eq
annually (Nabuurs et al. 2007)
 To meet Paris Accord goals: need
regional GHG accounting;
improved land rights and
governance in forests; heavy
funding from Global Climate
Funds