SlideShare a Scribd company logo
Global-to-Local Analysis of Systems Sustainability
Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University
403 West State Street, West Lafayette, IN 47907 USA
glassnet@purdue.edu
Integrated Policies for the Triple
Planetary Crisis
Presentation by Thomas Hertel, Purdue University
To the OECD workshop on Modelling the Triple Planetary Crisis
Paris, February 16, 2024
For more details, visit: https://glassnet.net
Multi-scale Analysis of Triple Crisis is needed to capture Global-Local-
Global Linkages: The GLASSNET Challenge
 Biodiversity and water
pollution are inherently
localized crises
 However, global forces are
driving these local
sustainability stresses
 The character of these stresses
& solutions vary by locality
 Furthermore, local responses
feed back with regional and
global consequences
See: Hertel et al., Special issue of Environmental Research
Letters, 2023:“Focus on GLG Analysis of Sustainability”
Outline of talk (based on workshop questions)
 How can models from different disciplines be combined to provide more robust and
comprehensive insights? Illustrated in each of these examples
 Quantifying key drivers behind the triple planetary crisis:
 Population change as a driver of biodiversity losses as well as recovery
 Global drivers of groundwater depletion in the Western US
 Quantifying interactions between climate change, biodiversity loss, and pollution: PNAS
paper on climate policy and water quality
 What are the key biophysical risks of the triple planetary crisis, and how do they
translate to economic outcomes?
 Which policies are needed to address climate change, biodiversity loss, and pollution,
and how can modelling efforts quantify the corresponding synergies and trade-offs?
 US water pollution and alternative local policies
 Investments in knowledge capital: productivity growth as a sustainability policy
3
Population remains a key driver of the triple
crisis, but demographic trends are changing
4
Cisneros-Pineda et al. In Review, 2024
Zoom to small
population
regions
Population growth rates are declining in all regions, levels are also beginning to decline:
What are the implications for biodiversity losses (or recovery)?
Biodiversity impact (potential species loss) in different agro-
ecological zones due to population changes ONLY between
2001-2021 (A) and 2021-2041 (B)
5
Cisneros-Pineda et al. In Review, 2024
A
B
Net additions to global population are smaller in
2021-2041, but biodiversity losses are larger and
more concentrated
Regional biodiversity impact (rows - potential species loss red or
gain green) due to regional population changes (columns)
between 2001-2021 (A) and 2021-2041 (B)
6
Cisneros-Pineda et al. In Review, 2024
B
A
Outline of talk (based on workshop questions)
 How can models from different disciplines be combined to provide more robust and
comprehensive insights?
 Quantifying key drivers behind the triple planetary crisis:
 Population change as a driver of biodiversity losses as well as recovery
 Global drivers of groundwater depletion in the Western US
 Quantifying interactions between climate change, biodiversity loss, and pollution: PNAS
paper on climate policy and water quality
 What are the key biophysical risks of the triple planetary crisis, and how do they
translate to economic outcomes?
 Which policies are needed to address climate change, biodiversity loss, and pollution,
and how can modelling efforts quantify the corresponding synergies and trade-offs?
 US water pollution and alternative local policies
 Investments in knowledge capital: productivity growth as a sustainability policy
7
Agriculture is central to addressing the planetary boundaries for biodiversity,
nutrient flows, freshwater, climate – what is driving this sector’s resource use?
Eutrophication linked to excessive nitrogen
fertilizer and phosporous use in river basins
Source: Potter et al. (2010)
Source: Richardson et al. (2023)
Agriculture is the primary driver of deforestation –
leading to biodiversity loss (Busch and Ferretti-Gallon)
SIMPLE-G model facilitates Global-Local-Global
Analysis of Sustainability
9
Baldos et al. (2020), Environmental Modelling and Software
-10
40
90
140
190
United States
607
-10
40
90
140
190
China
-10
40
90
140
190
Europe
-10
40
90
140
190
Latin America
641
-10
40
90
140
190
South Asia
-10
40
90
140
190
M. East & N.
Africa
260
-10
40
90
140
190
Sub Saharan
Africa
-10
40
90
140
190
Rest of Asia
35
100
43
-10
40
90
140
190
World
population
per capita
income
productivity
Global drivers of agricultural output around the world:
Population, income, and productivity growth, 2010-2050
Haqiqi et al. (Environmental Research Letters,2023)
Global drivers of regional changes in annual groundwater
withdrawals (from 2010 to 2050 % change): Results from SIMPLE-G
(40)
(20)
-
20
40
60
(percent)
Global population growth Global income growth
Global productivity growth US biofuel growth
Haqiqi et al. (Environmental Research Letters,2023)
Global drivers of change in US annual groundwater
withdrawal (from 2010 to 2050 % change)
Drivers of US
Groundwater
by 2050
(30)
(25)
(20)
(15)
(10)
(5)
-
5
10
15
20
25
United
States
(percent)
US TFP
US biofuel growth
Global productivity growth
Global income growth
Global population growth
Haqiqi et al. (ERL, 2023)
Global demand drivers of gridded change in US annual groundwater
withdrawal (from 2010 to 2050%): RoW developments are dominant
US (income + population) Rest of World (income + population)
Haqiqi et al. (2022), International Journal ofWater Resources Development
Outline of talk (based on workshop questions)
 How can models from different disciplines be combined to provide more robust and
comprehensive insights?
 Quantifying key drivers behind the triple planetary crisis:
 Population change as a driver of biodiversity losses as well as recovery
 Global drivers of groundwater depletion in the Western US
 Quantifying interactions between climate change and pollution
 What are the key biophysical risks of the triple planetary crisis, and how do they
translate to economic outcomes?
 Which policies are needed to address climate change, biodiversity loss, and pollution,
and how can modelling efforts quantify the corresponding synergies and trade-offs?
 US water pollution and alternative local policies
 Investments in knowledge capital: productivity growth as a sustainability policy
14
U.S. climate mitigation could benefit water quality – focus on fertilizer use
15
Capital, 38%
Natural gas,
51%
Electricity, 2%
O&M cost,
9%
Cost structure of Ammonia production, %
Capital
Natural gas
Electricity
O&M cost
17 16.2
58.8
19.3 24.1
87.8
18.6
47.8
176.2
0
40
80
120
160
200
Electricity Petroleum products Natural gas
Change in energy prices, %
SCC (51 USD) SCC (76 USD) SCC (152 USD)
30.4
45.3
90.6
0
20
40
60
80
100
Change in ammonia prices, %
SCC (51 USD) SCC (76 USD) SCC (152 USD)
Zuidema, Liu, Chepeliev, Johnson, et al. PNAS, 2023.
Carbon pricing
reduces nitrate
export to Gulf
of Mexico as
well as
groundwater
contamination
16
Climate policy leads to improved water quality
Zuidema, Liu, Chepeliev, Johnson, et al. PNAS, 2023.
Added benefit of carbon pricing is that it curtails negative spillovers
arising from a spatially limited policy
17
Effect on nitrogen fertilizer applications of coupling wetland restoration with carbon pricing
Wetlands only Wetlands & $51/ton CO2 Wetlands & $152/ton CO2
Zuidema, Liu, Chepeliev, Johnson, et al. PNAS, 2023.
Outline of talk (based on workshop questions)
 How can models from different disciplines be combined to provide more robust and
comprehensive insights?
 Quantifying key drivers behind the triple planetary crisis:
 Population change as a driver of biodiversity losses as well as recovery
 Global drivers of groundwater depletion in the Western US
 Quantifying interactions between climate change and pollution
 What are the key biophysical risks of the triple planetary crisis, and how do they
translate to economic outcomes?
 Which policies are needed to address climate change, biodiversity loss, and pollution,
and how can modelling efforts quantify the corresponding synergies and trade-offs?
 US water pollution and alternative local policies
 Investments in knowledge capital: productivity growth as a sustainability policy
18
Economic shocks from Ecosystem
Services Dependency models
Land-use change modeling with SEALS (Spatial
Economic Allocation Landscape Simulator)
Currently includes 6 global
ecosystem services
Includes new version of
GTAP-AEZ with 300+
AEZ/Region combinations
Land Supply curves
parameterized for each AEZ
Overview of GTAP-InVEST
Baseline land use change to 2030 leads to a degradation of natural capital
which lowers global welfare and disproportionately hurts low-income countries
Johnson et al. PNAS, 2023: https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2220401120
Ongoing degradation of nature damages low income
economies most severely (% welfare lost under baseline)
Baseline land use change to 2030 leads to a degradation of natural capital which
lowers global welfare and disproportionately hurts low-income countries
Johnson et al. PNAS, 2023: https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2220401120
Policies to protect natural capital, including public R&D
for agriculture and payments for ecosystem services
boost global welfare as well as natural capital. Ensuing
gains accrue disproportionately to the lowest income
countries!
Protecting nature benefits the economy:
Greatest gains to low income economies
Outline of talk (based on workshop questions)
 How can models from different disciplines be combined to provide more robust and
comprehensive insights?
 Quantifying key drivers behind the triple planetary crisis:
 Population change as a driver of biodiversity losses as well as recovery
 Global drivers of groundwater depletion in the Western US
 Quantifying interactions between climate change and pollution
 What are the key biophysical risks of the triple planetary crisis, and how do they
translate to economic outcomes?
 Which policies are needed to address climate change, biodiversity loss, and pollution,
and how can modelling efforts quantify the corresponding synergies and trade-offs?
 US water pollution and alternative local policies
 Investments in knowledge capital: productivity growth as a sustainability policy
22
Yield response
Nitrogen Loss
Coupling SIMPLE-G with an
agro-ecosystem model
Nationwide and site-specific nitrate leaching
mitigation strategies
A
Tax
B
Nutrient
management
C
Controlled
drainage
D
Wetland
 Tax N leaching
 Increased frequency of N
applications
 Controlled drainage of fields
with subsurface tiles
 Wetland restoration
Most effective policy
to limit non-point N
pollution varies by location
Liu et al. ERL, 2023
Outline of talk (based on workshop questions)
 How can models from different disciplines be combined to provide more robust and
comprehensive insights?
 Quantifying key drivers behind the triple planetary crisis:
 Population change as a driver of biodiversity losses as well as recovery
 Global drivers of groundwater depletion in the Western US
 Quantifying interactions between climate change and pollution
 What are the key biophysical risks of the triple planetary crisis, and how do they
translate to economic outcomes?
 Which policies are needed to address climate change, biodiversity loss, and pollution,
and how can modelling efforts quantify the corresponding synergies and trade-offs?
 US water pollution and alternative local policies
 Investments in knowledge capital: productivity growth as a sustainability policy
26
Doing more with less: Globally, strong empirical evidence that TFP
growth has reduced agricultural land conversion and GHG emissions
TFP =
growth in outputs –
growth in inputs
Source: Fuglie et al. (2022)
Where does TFP come from?
Linking TFP growth to R&D
• TFP depends on (own- & spillin-) knowledge capital:
• Knowledge capital accumulates (with a lag) based on
historical investments (it also depreciates over time)
• The productivity of knowledge capital depends on local
conditions (elasticities vary by region)
1/
( )
O S
O O O S L L N N
Q A K K Q Q
δ δ ρ ρ ρ
φ φ
− − −
= +
Much of ag TFP growth can be explained by historical R&D investments
• Nearly all of
TFP growth in
wealthy
economies was
R&D driven:
1990-2011
Source: Fuglie (2018)
WHILE PUBLIC R&D IS A SLOW-MOVING TRAIN…..
Time
Farm
Output
Gains
(in
%)
Years 11-23
(45% of Gains)
Years 1-5
(<1% of Gains)
Years 6-10
(5% of Gains) Year 24-42
(44% of Gains)
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Output Gains from
U.S. Public Agricultural R&D Investments in Year 1950 *
*Baldos, U. L. C., Viens, F. G., Hertel, T. W., & Fuglie, K. O. (2019). R&D Spending, Knowledge Capital, and Agricultural
Productivity Growth: A Bayesian Approach. Amer. Journal Agri. Econ.
Public investments in R&D can generate low cost mitigation as well
as lowering the cost of conservation policies
31
Source: Fuglie et al., AEPP (2022)
GLASSNET: An International Network of Networks
taking Land-Grant Ideals to the World
https://glassnet.net

More Related Content

Similar to Thomas Hertel- Integrated Policies for the Triple Planetary Crisis.pdf

GFPR 2022 Nigeria June 23 _Report Overview and Policy Messages.pptx
GFPR 2022 Nigeria June 23 _Report Overview and Policy Messages.pptxGFPR 2022 Nigeria June 23 _Report Overview and Policy Messages.pptx
GFPR 2022 Nigeria June 23 _Report Overview and Policy Messages.pptx
Omobolanle3
 
Climate Change and Agriculture: Impacts, Adaptation, and Mitigation
Climate Change and Agriculture: Impacts, Adaptation, and MitigationClimate Change and Agriculture: Impacts, Adaptation, and Mitigation
Climate Change and Agriculture: Impacts, Adaptation, and Mitigation
International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI)
 
First meeting of the OECD Task Force on Climate Change Adaptation presentatio...
First meeting of the OECD Task Force on Climate Change Adaptation presentatio...First meeting of the OECD Task Force on Climate Change Adaptation presentatio...
First meeting of the OECD Task Force on Climate Change Adaptation presentatio...
OECD Environment
 
Research needs for the advancement of integrated crop-livestock-tree uses
Research needs for the advancement of integrated crop-livestock-tree usesResearch needs for the advancement of integrated crop-livestock-tree uses
Research needs for the advancement of integrated crop-livestock-tree uses
World Agroforestry (ICRAF)
 
Climate Change, Agriculture, and Food Security
Climate Change, Agriculture, and Food SecurityClimate Change, Agriculture, and Food Security
Climate Change, Agriculture, and Food Security
Joachim von Braun
 
Envisioning-sustainable-carbon-sequestration-in-_2022_Environmental-Science-.pdf
Envisioning-sustainable-carbon-sequestration-in-_2022_Environmental-Science-.pdfEnvisioning-sustainable-carbon-sequestration-in-_2022_Environmental-Science-.pdf
Envisioning-sustainable-carbon-sequestration-in-_2022_Environmental-Science-.pdf
alphago2
 
Low Emissions Development Strategies (Colombia Feb 20, 2014)
Low Emissions Development Strategies (Colombia Feb 20, 2014)Low Emissions Development Strategies (Colombia Feb 20, 2014)
Low Emissions Development Strategies (Colombia Feb 20, 2014)
IFPRI-EPTD
 
Canadian experiences in sustainability in agriculture and climate change
Canadian experiences in sustainability in agriculture and climate change Canadian experiences in sustainability in agriculture and climate change
Canadian experiences in sustainability in agriculture and climate change
Premier Publishers
 
Ncar global econ g nelson
Ncar global econ g nelsonNcar global econ g nelson
Ncar global econ g nelson
Gerald Nelson
 
Mark Rosegrant, IFPRI
Mark Rosegrant, IFPRIMark Rosegrant, IFPRI
Mark Rosegrant, IFPRI
University of California, Davis
 
Impact of water quality/quantity on agricultural policy
 Impact of water quality/quantity on agricultural policy Impact of water quality/quantity on agricultural policy
Impact of water quality/quantity on agricultural policy
International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI)
 
Environment & Development.pdf
Environment & Development.pdfEnvironment & Development.pdf
Environment & Development.pdf
rashi39442
 
Cement and Concrete: From Linear to Circular
Cement and Concrete: From Linear to CircularCement and Concrete: From Linear to Circular
Cement and Concrete: From Linear to Circular
Circular Economy Asia
 
Climate change impacts on water quantity and quality: Implications for agricu...
Climate change impacts on water quantity and quality: Implications for agricu...Climate change impacts on water quantity and quality: Implications for agricu...
Climate change impacts on water quantity and quality: Implications for agricu...
International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI)
 
The Food-Energy-Water Nexus: Useful Concept at the Science-Policy Interface?
The Food-Energy-Water Nexus: Useful Concept at the Science-Policy Interface?The Food-Energy-Water Nexus: Useful Concept at the Science-Policy Interface?
The Food-Energy-Water Nexus: Useful Concept at the Science-Policy Interface?
Water, Land and Ecosystems (WLE)
 
Transforming agri-food systems in lower- and middle-income countries to meet ...
Transforming agri-food systems in lower- and middle-income countries to meet ...Transforming agri-food systems in lower- and middle-income countries to meet ...
Transforming agri-food systems in lower- and middle-income countries to meet ...
CCAFS | CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security
 
Long-term scenarios for sustainable and inclusive agriculture, food security ...
Long-term scenarios for sustainable and inclusive agriculture, food security ...Long-term scenarios for sustainable and inclusive agriculture, food security ...
Long-term scenarios for sustainable and inclusive agriculture, food security ...
FAO
 
A Thriving Agriculture Sector in a Changing Climate: A Global Perspective for...
A Thriving Agriculture Sector in a Changing Climate: A Global Perspective for...A Thriving Agriculture Sector in a Changing Climate: A Global Perspective for...
A Thriving Agriculture Sector in a Changing Climate: A Global Perspective for...
African Regional Strategic Analysis and Knowledge Support System (ReSAKSS)
 
2019 Report: The truth behind the climate pledges
2019 Report: The truth behind the climate pledges2019 Report: The truth behind the climate pledges
2019 Report: The truth behind the climate pledges
Energy for One World
 
Establishing a climate smart agricultural world
Establishing a climate smart agricultural worldEstablishing a climate smart agricultural world
Establishing a climate smart agricultural world
Decision and Policy Analysis Program
 

Similar to Thomas Hertel- Integrated Policies for the Triple Planetary Crisis.pdf (20)

GFPR 2022 Nigeria June 23 _Report Overview and Policy Messages.pptx
GFPR 2022 Nigeria June 23 _Report Overview and Policy Messages.pptxGFPR 2022 Nigeria June 23 _Report Overview and Policy Messages.pptx
GFPR 2022 Nigeria June 23 _Report Overview and Policy Messages.pptx
 
Climate Change and Agriculture: Impacts, Adaptation, and Mitigation
Climate Change and Agriculture: Impacts, Adaptation, and MitigationClimate Change and Agriculture: Impacts, Adaptation, and Mitigation
Climate Change and Agriculture: Impacts, Adaptation, and Mitigation
 
First meeting of the OECD Task Force on Climate Change Adaptation presentatio...
First meeting of the OECD Task Force on Climate Change Adaptation presentatio...First meeting of the OECD Task Force on Climate Change Adaptation presentatio...
First meeting of the OECD Task Force on Climate Change Adaptation presentatio...
 
Research needs for the advancement of integrated crop-livestock-tree uses
Research needs for the advancement of integrated crop-livestock-tree usesResearch needs for the advancement of integrated crop-livestock-tree uses
Research needs for the advancement of integrated crop-livestock-tree uses
 
Climate Change, Agriculture, and Food Security
Climate Change, Agriculture, and Food SecurityClimate Change, Agriculture, and Food Security
Climate Change, Agriculture, and Food Security
 
Envisioning-sustainable-carbon-sequestration-in-_2022_Environmental-Science-.pdf
Envisioning-sustainable-carbon-sequestration-in-_2022_Environmental-Science-.pdfEnvisioning-sustainable-carbon-sequestration-in-_2022_Environmental-Science-.pdf
Envisioning-sustainable-carbon-sequestration-in-_2022_Environmental-Science-.pdf
 
Low Emissions Development Strategies (Colombia Feb 20, 2014)
Low Emissions Development Strategies (Colombia Feb 20, 2014)Low Emissions Development Strategies (Colombia Feb 20, 2014)
Low Emissions Development Strategies (Colombia Feb 20, 2014)
 
Canadian experiences in sustainability in agriculture and climate change
Canadian experiences in sustainability in agriculture and climate change Canadian experiences in sustainability in agriculture and climate change
Canadian experiences in sustainability in agriculture and climate change
 
Ncar global econ g nelson
Ncar global econ g nelsonNcar global econ g nelson
Ncar global econ g nelson
 
Mark Rosegrant, IFPRI
Mark Rosegrant, IFPRIMark Rosegrant, IFPRI
Mark Rosegrant, IFPRI
 
Impact of water quality/quantity on agricultural policy
 Impact of water quality/quantity on agricultural policy Impact of water quality/quantity on agricultural policy
Impact of water quality/quantity on agricultural policy
 
Environment & Development.pdf
Environment & Development.pdfEnvironment & Development.pdf
Environment & Development.pdf
 
Cement and Concrete: From Linear to Circular
Cement and Concrete: From Linear to CircularCement and Concrete: From Linear to Circular
Cement and Concrete: From Linear to Circular
 
Climate change impacts on water quantity and quality: Implications for agricu...
Climate change impacts on water quantity and quality: Implications for agricu...Climate change impacts on water quantity and quality: Implications for agricu...
Climate change impacts on water quantity and quality: Implications for agricu...
 
The Food-Energy-Water Nexus: Useful Concept at the Science-Policy Interface?
The Food-Energy-Water Nexus: Useful Concept at the Science-Policy Interface?The Food-Energy-Water Nexus: Useful Concept at the Science-Policy Interface?
The Food-Energy-Water Nexus: Useful Concept at the Science-Policy Interface?
 
Transforming agri-food systems in lower- and middle-income countries to meet ...
Transforming agri-food systems in lower- and middle-income countries to meet ...Transforming agri-food systems in lower- and middle-income countries to meet ...
Transforming agri-food systems in lower- and middle-income countries to meet ...
 
Long-term scenarios for sustainable and inclusive agriculture, food security ...
Long-term scenarios for sustainable and inclusive agriculture, food security ...Long-term scenarios for sustainable and inclusive agriculture, food security ...
Long-term scenarios for sustainable and inclusive agriculture, food security ...
 
A Thriving Agriculture Sector in a Changing Climate: A Global Perspective for...
A Thriving Agriculture Sector in a Changing Climate: A Global Perspective for...A Thriving Agriculture Sector in a Changing Climate: A Global Perspective for...
A Thriving Agriculture Sector in a Changing Climate: A Global Perspective for...
 
2019 Report: The truth behind the climate pledges
2019 Report: The truth behind the climate pledges2019 Report: The truth behind the climate pledges
2019 Report: The truth behind the climate pledges
 
Establishing a climate smart agricultural world
Establishing a climate smart agricultural worldEstablishing a climate smart agricultural world
Establishing a climate smart agricultural world
 

More from OECD Environment

European integration of Ukraine in the “water quality” sector
European integration of Ukraine in the “water quality” sectorEuropean integration of Ukraine in the “water quality” sector
European integration of Ukraine in the “water quality” sector
OECD Environment
 
Financing the water sector in Austria.pdf
Financing the water sector in Austria.pdfFinancing the water sector in Austria.pdf
Financing the water sector in Austria.pdf
OECD Environment
 
The Enabling Environment for Investment in Water Security.pdf
The Enabling Environment for Investment in Water Security.pdfThe Enabling Environment for Investment in Water Security.pdf
The Enabling Environment for Investment in Water Security.pdf
OECD Environment
 
AFD’s activity in EU’s Eastern Partnership Countries in a nutshell.pdf
AFD’s activity in EU’s Eastern Partnership Countries in a nutshell.pdfAFD’s activity in EU’s Eastern Partnership Countries in a nutshell.pdf
AFD’s activity in EU’s Eastern Partnership Countries in a nutshell.pdf
OECD Environment
 
Incofin’s Water Access Acceleration Fund.pdf
Incofin’s Water Access Acceleration Fund.pdfIncofin’s Water Access Acceleration Fund.pdf
Incofin’s Water Access Acceleration Fund.pdf
OECD Environment
 
Financing of River Basin Management Plans in Ukraine.pdf
Financing of River Basin Management Plans in Ukraine.pdfFinancing of River Basin Management Plans in Ukraine.pdf
Financing of River Basin Management Plans in Ukraine.pdf
OECD Environment
 
Introduction to Nature-Based Solutions.pdf
Introduction to Nature-Based Solutions.pdfIntroduction to Nature-Based Solutions.pdf
Introduction to Nature-Based Solutions.pdf
OECD Environment
 
Insights on Nature-Based Solutions from the European Commission.pdf
Insights on Nature-Based Solutions from the European Commission.pdfInsights on Nature-Based Solutions from the European Commission.pdf
Insights on Nature-Based Solutions from the European Commission.pdf
OECD Environment
 
PPTs - TAIEX TSI MNB-OECD-EC Launch Event: Technical implementation of the Su...
PPTs - TAIEX TSI MNB-OECD-EC Launch Event: Technical implementation of the Su...PPTs - TAIEX TSI MNB-OECD-EC Launch Event: Technical implementation of the Su...
PPTs - TAIEX TSI MNB-OECD-EC Launch Event: Technical implementation of the Su...
OECD Environment
 
OECD Green Talks LIVE | Diving deeper: the evolving landscape for assessing w...
OECD Green Talks LIVE | Diving deeper: the evolving landscape for assessing w...OECD Green Talks LIVE | Diving deeper: the evolving landscape for assessing w...
OECD Green Talks LIVE | Diving deeper: the evolving landscape for assessing w...
OECD Environment
 
Detlef Van Vuuren- Integrated modelling for interrelated crises.pdf
Detlef Van Vuuren- Integrated modelling for interrelated crises.pdfDetlef Van Vuuren- Integrated modelling for interrelated crises.pdf
Detlef Van Vuuren- Integrated modelling for interrelated crises.pdf
OECD Environment
 
Jon Sampedro - Assessing synergies and trade offs for health and sustainable ...
Jon Sampedro - Assessing synergies and trade offs for health and sustainable ...Jon Sampedro - Assessing synergies and trade offs for health and sustainable ...
Jon Sampedro - Assessing synergies and trade offs for health and sustainable ...
OECD Environment
 
Astrid Bos - Identifying trade offs & searching for synergies.pdf
Astrid Bos - Identifying trade offs & searching for synergies.pdfAstrid Bos - Identifying trade offs & searching for synergies.pdf
Astrid Bos - Identifying trade offs & searching for synergies.pdf
OECD Environment
 
Ruth Delzeit - Modelling environmental and socio-economic impacts of cropland...
Ruth Delzeit - Modelling environmental and socio-economic impacts of cropland...Ruth Delzeit - Modelling environmental and socio-economic impacts of cropland...
Ruth Delzeit - Modelling environmental and socio-economic impacts of cropland...
OECD Environment
 
Wilfried Winiwarter - Implementing nitrogen pollution control pathways in the...
Wilfried Winiwarter - Implementing nitrogen pollution control pathways in the...Wilfried Winiwarter - Implementing nitrogen pollution control pathways in the...
Wilfried Winiwarter - Implementing nitrogen pollution control pathways in the...
OECD Environment
 
Laurent Drouet - Physical and Economic Risks of Climate Change.pdf
Laurent Drouet - Physical and Economic Risks of Climate Change.pdfLaurent Drouet - Physical and Economic Risks of Climate Change.pdf
Laurent Drouet - Physical and Economic Risks of Climate Change.pdf
OECD Environment
 
Shinichiro Fujimori - Biodiversity modeling in AIM (Asia pacific Integrated M...
Shinichiro Fujimori - Biodiversity modeling in AIM (Asia pacific Integrated M...Shinichiro Fujimori - Biodiversity modeling in AIM (Asia pacific Integrated M...
Shinichiro Fujimori - Biodiversity modeling in AIM (Asia pacific Integrated M...
OECD Environment
 
HyeJin Kim and Simon Smart - The biodiversity nexus across multiple drivers: ...
HyeJin Kim and Simon Smart - The biodiversity nexus across multiple drivers: ...HyeJin Kim and Simon Smart - The biodiversity nexus across multiple drivers: ...
HyeJin Kim and Simon Smart - The biodiversity nexus across multiple drivers: ...
OECD Environment
 
GREEN Action Task Force - Full Presentations.pdf
GREEN Action Task Force - Full Presentations.pdfGREEN Action Task Force - Full Presentations.pdf
GREEN Action Task Force - Full Presentations.pdf
OECD Environment
 
Case Study: Peptides-based Plant Protection Product (harpin proteins*) by Ros...
Case Study: Peptides-based Plant Protection Product (harpin proteins*) by Ros...Case Study: Peptides-based Plant Protection Product (harpin proteins*) by Ros...
Case Study: Peptides-based Plant Protection Product (harpin proteins*) by Ros...
OECD Environment
 

More from OECD Environment (20)

European integration of Ukraine in the “water quality” sector
European integration of Ukraine in the “water quality” sectorEuropean integration of Ukraine in the “water quality” sector
European integration of Ukraine in the “water quality” sector
 
Financing the water sector in Austria.pdf
Financing the water sector in Austria.pdfFinancing the water sector in Austria.pdf
Financing the water sector in Austria.pdf
 
The Enabling Environment for Investment in Water Security.pdf
The Enabling Environment for Investment in Water Security.pdfThe Enabling Environment for Investment in Water Security.pdf
The Enabling Environment for Investment in Water Security.pdf
 
AFD’s activity in EU’s Eastern Partnership Countries in a nutshell.pdf
AFD’s activity in EU’s Eastern Partnership Countries in a nutshell.pdfAFD’s activity in EU’s Eastern Partnership Countries in a nutshell.pdf
AFD’s activity in EU’s Eastern Partnership Countries in a nutshell.pdf
 
Incofin’s Water Access Acceleration Fund.pdf
Incofin’s Water Access Acceleration Fund.pdfIncofin’s Water Access Acceleration Fund.pdf
Incofin’s Water Access Acceleration Fund.pdf
 
Financing of River Basin Management Plans in Ukraine.pdf
Financing of River Basin Management Plans in Ukraine.pdfFinancing of River Basin Management Plans in Ukraine.pdf
Financing of River Basin Management Plans in Ukraine.pdf
 
Introduction to Nature-Based Solutions.pdf
Introduction to Nature-Based Solutions.pdfIntroduction to Nature-Based Solutions.pdf
Introduction to Nature-Based Solutions.pdf
 
Insights on Nature-Based Solutions from the European Commission.pdf
Insights on Nature-Based Solutions from the European Commission.pdfInsights on Nature-Based Solutions from the European Commission.pdf
Insights on Nature-Based Solutions from the European Commission.pdf
 
PPTs - TAIEX TSI MNB-OECD-EC Launch Event: Technical implementation of the Su...
PPTs - TAIEX TSI MNB-OECD-EC Launch Event: Technical implementation of the Su...PPTs - TAIEX TSI MNB-OECD-EC Launch Event: Technical implementation of the Su...
PPTs - TAIEX TSI MNB-OECD-EC Launch Event: Technical implementation of the Su...
 
OECD Green Talks LIVE | Diving deeper: the evolving landscape for assessing w...
OECD Green Talks LIVE | Diving deeper: the evolving landscape for assessing w...OECD Green Talks LIVE | Diving deeper: the evolving landscape for assessing w...
OECD Green Talks LIVE | Diving deeper: the evolving landscape for assessing w...
 
Detlef Van Vuuren- Integrated modelling for interrelated crises.pdf
Detlef Van Vuuren- Integrated modelling for interrelated crises.pdfDetlef Van Vuuren- Integrated modelling for interrelated crises.pdf
Detlef Van Vuuren- Integrated modelling for interrelated crises.pdf
 
Jon Sampedro - Assessing synergies and trade offs for health and sustainable ...
Jon Sampedro - Assessing synergies and trade offs for health and sustainable ...Jon Sampedro - Assessing synergies and trade offs for health and sustainable ...
Jon Sampedro - Assessing synergies and trade offs for health and sustainable ...
 
Astrid Bos - Identifying trade offs & searching for synergies.pdf
Astrid Bos - Identifying trade offs & searching for synergies.pdfAstrid Bos - Identifying trade offs & searching for synergies.pdf
Astrid Bos - Identifying trade offs & searching for synergies.pdf
 
Ruth Delzeit - Modelling environmental and socio-economic impacts of cropland...
Ruth Delzeit - Modelling environmental and socio-economic impacts of cropland...Ruth Delzeit - Modelling environmental and socio-economic impacts of cropland...
Ruth Delzeit - Modelling environmental and socio-economic impacts of cropland...
 
Wilfried Winiwarter - Implementing nitrogen pollution control pathways in the...
Wilfried Winiwarter - Implementing nitrogen pollution control pathways in the...Wilfried Winiwarter - Implementing nitrogen pollution control pathways in the...
Wilfried Winiwarter - Implementing nitrogen pollution control pathways in the...
 
Laurent Drouet - Physical and Economic Risks of Climate Change.pdf
Laurent Drouet - Physical and Economic Risks of Climate Change.pdfLaurent Drouet - Physical and Economic Risks of Climate Change.pdf
Laurent Drouet - Physical and Economic Risks of Climate Change.pdf
 
Shinichiro Fujimori - Biodiversity modeling in AIM (Asia pacific Integrated M...
Shinichiro Fujimori - Biodiversity modeling in AIM (Asia pacific Integrated M...Shinichiro Fujimori - Biodiversity modeling in AIM (Asia pacific Integrated M...
Shinichiro Fujimori - Biodiversity modeling in AIM (Asia pacific Integrated M...
 
HyeJin Kim and Simon Smart - The biodiversity nexus across multiple drivers: ...
HyeJin Kim and Simon Smart - The biodiversity nexus across multiple drivers: ...HyeJin Kim and Simon Smart - The biodiversity nexus across multiple drivers: ...
HyeJin Kim and Simon Smart - The biodiversity nexus across multiple drivers: ...
 
GREEN Action Task Force - Full Presentations.pdf
GREEN Action Task Force - Full Presentations.pdfGREEN Action Task Force - Full Presentations.pdf
GREEN Action Task Force - Full Presentations.pdf
 
Case Study: Peptides-based Plant Protection Product (harpin proteins*) by Ros...
Case Study: Peptides-based Plant Protection Product (harpin proteins*) by Ros...Case Study: Peptides-based Plant Protection Product (harpin proteins*) by Ros...
Case Study: Peptides-based Plant Protection Product (harpin proteins*) by Ros...
 

Recently uploaded

Lessons from operationalizing integrated landscape approaches
Lessons from operationalizing integrated landscape approachesLessons from operationalizing integrated landscape approaches
Lessons from operationalizing integrated landscape approaches
CIFOR-ICRAF
 
Optimizing Post Remediation Groundwater Performance with Enhanced Microbiolog...
Optimizing Post Remediation Groundwater Performance with Enhanced Microbiolog...Optimizing Post Remediation Groundwater Performance with Enhanced Microbiolog...
Optimizing Post Remediation Groundwater Performance with Enhanced Microbiolog...
Joshua Orris
 
一比一原版西澳大学毕业证学历证书如何办理
一比一原版西澳大学毕业证学历证书如何办理一比一原版西澳大学毕业证学历证书如何办理
一比一原版西澳大学毕业证学历证书如何办理
yxfus
 
REPORT-PRESENTATION BY CHIEF SECRETARY, ANDAMAN NICOBAR ADMINISTRATION IN OA ...
REPORT-PRESENTATION BY CHIEF SECRETARY, ANDAMAN NICOBAR ADMINISTRATION IN OA ...REPORT-PRESENTATION BY CHIEF SECRETARY, ANDAMAN NICOBAR ADMINISTRATION IN OA ...
REPORT-PRESENTATION BY CHIEF SECRETARY, ANDAMAN NICOBAR ADMINISTRATION IN OA ...
pareeksulkash
 
Kinetic studies on malachite green dye adsorption from aqueous solutions by A...
Kinetic studies on malachite green dye adsorption from aqueous solutions by A...Kinetic studies on malachite green dye adsorption from aqueous solutions by A...
Kinetic studies on malachite green dye adsorption from aqueous solutions by A...
Open Access Research Paper
 
原版制作(Manitoba毕业证书)曼尼托巴大学毕业证学位证一模一样
原版制作(Manitoba毕业证书)曼尼托巴大学毕业证学位证一模一样原版制作(Manitoba毕业证书)曼尼托巴大学毕业证学位证一模一样
原版制作(Manitoba毕业证书)曼尼托巴大学毕业证学位证一模一样
mvrpcz6
 
Biomimicry in agriculture: Nature-Inspired Solutions for a Greener Future
Biomimicry in agriculture: Nature-Inspired Solutions for a Greener FutureBiomimicry in agriculture: Nature-Inspired Solutions for a Greener Future
Biomimicry in agriculture: Nature-Inspired Solutions for a Greener Future
Dr. P.B.Dharmasena
 
world-environment-day-2024-240601103559-14f4c0b4.pptx
world-environment-day-2024-240601103559-14f4c0b4.pptxworld-environment-day-2024-240601103559-14f4c0b4.pptx
world-environment-day-2024-240601103559-14f4c0b4.pptx
mfasna35
 
PACKAGING OF FROZEN FOODS ( food technology)
PACKAGING OF FROZEN FOODS  ( food technology)PACKAGING OF FROZEN FOODS  ( food technology)
PACKAGING OF FROZEN FOODS ( food technology)
Addu25809
 
快速办理(Calabria毕业证书)卡拉布里亚大学毕业证在读证明一模一样
快速办理(Calabria毕业证书)卡拉布里亚大学毕业证在读证明一模一样快速办理(Calabria毕业证书)卡拉布里亚大学毕业证在读证明一模一样
快速办理(Calabria毕业证书)卡拉布里亚大学毕业证在读证明一模一样
astuz
 
按照学校原版(UAL文凭证书)伦敦艺术大学毕业证快速办理
按照学校原版(UAL文凭证书)伦敦艺术大学毕业证快速办理按照学校原版(UAL文凭证书)伦敦艺术大学毕业证快速办理
按照学校原版(UAL文凭证书)伦敦艺术大学毕业证快速办理
xeexm
 
在线办理(lboro毕业证书)拉夫堡大学毕业证学历证书一模一样
在线办理(lboro毕业证书)拉夫堡大学毕业证学历证书一模一样在线办理(lboro毕业证书)拉夫堡大学毕业证学历证书一模一样
在线办理(lboro毕业证书)拉夫堡大学毕业证学历证书一模一样
pjq9n1lk
 
Environment Conservation Rules 2023 (ECR)-2023.pptx
Environment Conservation Rules 2023 (ECR)-2023.pptxEnvironment Conservation Rules 2023 (ECR)-2023.pptx
Environment Conservation Rules 2023 (ECR)-2023.pptx
neilsencassidy
 
学校原版(unuk学位证书)英国牛津布鲁克斯大学毕业证硕士文凭原版一模一样
学校原版(unuk学位证书)英国牛津布鲁克斯大学毕业证硕士文凭原版一模一样学校原版(unuk学位证书)英国牛津布鲁克斯大学毕业证硕士文凭原版一模一样
学校原版(unuk学位证书)英国牛津布鲁克斯大学毕业证硕士文凭原版一模一样
ehfyqtu
 
Evolving Lifecycles with High Resolution Site Characterization (HRSC) and 3-D...
Evolving Lifecycles with High Resolution Site Characterization (HRSC) and 3-D...Evolving Lifecycles with High Resolution Site Characterization (HRSC) and 3-D...
Evolving Lifecycles with High Resolution Site Characterization (HRSC) and 3-D...
Joshua Orris
 
原版制作(Newcastle毕业证书)纽卡斯尔大学毕业证在读证明一模一样
原版制作(Newcastle毕业证书)纽卡斯尔大学毕业证在读证明一模一样原版制作(Newcastle毕业证书)纽卡斯尔大学毕业证在读证明一模一样
原版制作(Newcastle毕业证书)纽卡斯尔大学毕业证在读证明一模一样
p2npnqp
 
Improving the viability of probiotics by encapsulation methods for developmen...
Improving the viability of probiotics by encapsulation methods for developmen...Improving the viability of probiotics by encapsulation methods for developmen...
Improving the viability of probiotics by encapsulation methods for developmen...
Open Access Research Paper
 
BASIC CONCEPT OF ENVIRONMENT AND DIFFERENT CONSTITUTENET OF ENVIRONMENT
BASIC CONCEPT OF ENVIRONMENT AND DIFFERENT CONSTITUTENET OF ENVIRONMENTBASIC CONCEPT OF ENVIRONMENT AND DIFFERENT CONSTITUTENET OF ENVIRONMENT
BASIC CONCEPT OF ENVIRONMENT AND DIFFERENT CONSTITUTENET OF ENVIRONMENT
AmitKumar619042
 

Recently uploaded (18)

Lessons from operationalizing integrated landscape approaches
Lessons from operationalizing integrated landscape approachesLessons from operationalizing integrated landscape approaches
Lessons from operationalizing integrated landscape approaches
 
Optimizing Post Remediation Groundwater Performance with Enhanced Microbiolog...
Optimizing Post Remediation Groundwater Performance with Enhanced Microbiolog...Optimizing Post Remediation Groundwater Performance with Enhanced Microbiolog...
Optimizing Post Remediation Groundwater Performance with Enhanced Microbiolog...
 
一比一原版西澳大学毕业证学历证书如何办理
一比一原版西澳大学毕业证学历证书如何办理一比一原版西澳大学毕业证学历证书如何办理
一比一原版西澳大学毕业证学历证书如何办理
 
REPORT-PRESENTATION BY CHIEF SECRETARY, ANDAMAN NICOBAR ADMINISTRATION IN OA ...
REPORT-PRESENTATION BY CHIEF SECRETARY, ANDAMAN NICOBAR ADMINISTRATION IN OA ...REPORT-PRESENTATION BY CHIEF SECRETARY, ANDAMAN NICOBAR ADMINISTRATION IN OA ...
REPORT-PRESENTATION BY CHIEF SECRETARY, ANDAMAN NICOBAR ADMINISTRATION IN OA ...
 
Kinetic studies on malachite green dye adsorption from aqueous solutions by A...
Kinetic studies on malachite green dye adsorption from aqueous solutions by A...Kinetic studies on malachite green dye adsorption from aqueous solutions by A...
Kinetic studies on malachite green dye adsorption from aqueous solutions by A...
 
原版制作(Manitoba毕业证书)曼尼托巴大学毕业证学位证一模一样
原版制作(Manitoba毕业证书)曼尼托巴大学毕业证学位证一模一样原版制作(Manitoba毕业证书)曼尼托巴大学毕业证学位证一模一样
原版制作(Manitoba毕业证书)曼尼托巴大学毕业证学位证一模一样
 
Biomimicry in agriculture: Nature-Inspired Solutions for a Greener Future
Biomimicry in agriculture: Nature-Inspired Solutions for a Greener FutureBiomimicry in agriculture: Nature-Inspired Solutions for a Greener Future
Biomimicry in agriculture: Nature-Inspired Solutions for a Greener Future
 
world-environment-day-2024-240601103559-14f4c0b4.pptx
world-environment-day-2024-240601103559-14f4c0b4.pptxworld-environment-day-2024-240601103559-14f4c0b4.pptx
world-environment-day-2024-240601103559-14f4c0b4.pptx
 
PACKAGING OF FROZEN FOODS ( food technology)
PACKAGING OF FROZEN FOODS  ( food technology)PACKAGING OF FROZEN FOODS  ( food technology)
PACKAGING OF FROZEN FOODS ( food technology)
 
快速办理(Calabria毕业证书)卡拉布里亚大学毕业证在读证明一模一样
快速办理(Calabria毕业证书)卡拉布里亚大学毕业证在读证明一模一样快速办理(Calabria毕业证书)卡拉布里亚大学毕业证在读证明一模一样
快速办理(Calabria毕业证书)卡拉布里亚大学毕业证在读证明一模一样
 
按照学校原版(UAL文凭证书)伦敦艺术大学毕业证快速办理
按照学校原版(UAL文凭证书)伦敦艺术大学毕业证快速办理按照学校原版(UAL文凭证书)伦敦艺术大学毕业证快速办理
按照学校原版(UAL文凭证书)伦敦艺术大学毕业证快速办理
 
在线办理(lboro毕业证书)拉夫堡大学毕业证学历证书一模一样
在线办理(lboro毕业证书)拉夫堡大学毕业证学历证书一模一样在线办理(lboro毕业证书)拉夫堡大学毕业证学历证书一模一样
在线办理(lboro毕业证书)拉夫堡大学毕业证学历证书一模一样
 
Environment Conservation Rules 2023 (ECR)-2023.pptx
Environment Conservation Rules 2023 (ECR)-2023.pptxEnvironment Conservation Rules 2023 (ECR)-2023.pptx
Environment Conservation Rules 2023 (ECR)-2023.pptx
 
学校原版(unuk学位证书)英国牛津布鲁克斯大学毕业证硕士文凭原版一模一样
学校原版(unuk学位证书)英国牛津布鲁克斯大学毕业证硕士文凭原版一模一样学校原版(unuk学位证书)英国牛津布鲁克斯大学毕业证硕士文凭原版一模一样
学校原版(unuk学位证书)英国牛津布鲁克斯大学毕业证硕士文凭原版一模一样
 
Evolving Lifecycles with High Resolution Site Characterization (HRSC) and 3-D...
Evolving Lifecycles with High Resolution Site Characterization (HRSC) and 3-D...Evolving Lifecycles with High Resolution Site Characterization (HRSC) and 3-D...
Evolving Lifecycles with High Resolution Site Characterization (HRSC) and 3-D...
 
原版制作(Newcastle毕业证书)纽卡斯尔大学毕业证在读证明一模一样
原版制作(Newcastle毕业证书)纽卡斯尔大学毕业证在读证明一模一样原版制作(Newcastle毕业证书)纽卡斯尔大学毕业证在读证明一模一样
原版制作(Newcastle毕业证书)纽卡斯尔大学毕业证在读证明一模一样
 
Improving the viability of probiotics by encapsulation methods for developmen...
Improving the viability of probiotics by encapsulation methods for developmen...Improving the viability of probiotics by encapsulation methods for developmen...
Improving the viability of probiotics by encapsulation methods for developmen...
 
BASIC CONCEPT OF ENVIRONMENT AND DIFFERENT CONSTITUTENET OF ENVIRONMENT
BASIC CONCEPT OF ENVIRONMENT AND DIFFERENT CONSTITUTENET OF ENVIRONMENTBASIC CONCEPT OF ENVIRONMENT AND DIFFERENT CONSTITUTENET OF ENVIRONMENT
BASIC CONCEPT OF ENVIRONMENT AND DIFFERENT CONSTITUTENET OF ENVIRONMENT
 

Thomas Hertel- Integrated Policies for the Triple Planetary Crisis.pdf

  • 1. Global-to-Local Analysis of Systems Sustainability Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University 403 West State Street, West Lafayette, IN 47907 USA glassnet@purdue.edu Integrated Policies for the Triple Planetary Crisis Presentation by Thomas Hertel, Purdue University To the OECD workshop on Modelling the Triple Planetary Crisis Paris, February 16, 2024 For more details, visit: https://glassnet.net
  • 2. Multi-scale Analysis of Triple Crisis is needed to capture Global-Local- Global Linkages: The GLASSNET Challenge  Biodiversity and water pollution are inherently localized crises  However, global forces are driving these local sustainability stresses  The character of these stresses & solutions vary by locality  Furthermore, local responses feed back with regional and global consequences See: Hertel et al., Special issue of Environmental Research Letters, 2023:“Focus on GLG Analysis of Sustainability”
  • 3. Outline of talk (based on workshop questions)  How can models from different disciplines be combined to provide more robust and comprehensive insights? Illustrated in each of these examples  Quantifying key drivers behind the triple planetary crisis:  Population change as a driver of biodiversity losses as well as recovery  Global drivers of groundwater depletion in the Western US  Quantifying interactions between climate change, biodiversity loss, and pollution: PNAS paper on climate policy and water quality  What are the key biophysical risks of the triple planetary crisis, and how do they translate to economic outcomes?  Which policies are needed to address climate change, biodiversity loss, and pollution, and how can modelling efforts quantify the corresponding synergies and trade-offs?  US water pollution and alternative local policies  Investments in knowledge capital: productivity growth as a sustainability policy 3
  • 4. Population remains a key driver of the triple crisis, but demographic trends are changing 4 Cisneros-Pineda et al. In Review, 2024 Zoom to small population regions Population growth rates are declining in all regions, levels are also beginning to decline: What are the implications for biodiversity losses (or recovery)?
  • 5. Biodiversity impact (potential species loss) in different agro- ecological zones due to population changes ONLY between 2001-2021 (A) and 2021-2041 (B) 5 Cisneros-Pineda et al. In Review, 2024 A B Net additions to global population are smaller in 2021-2041, but biodiversity losses are larger and more concentrated
  • 6. Regional biodiversity impact (rows - potential species loss red or gain green) due to regional population changes (columns) between 2001-2021 (A) and 2021-2041 (B) 6 Cisneros-Pineda et al. In Review, 2024 B A
  • 7. Outline of talk (based on workshop questions)  How can models from different disciplines be combined to provide more robust and comprehensive insights?  Quantifying key drivers behind the triple planetary crisis:  Population change as a driver of biodiversity losses as well as recovery  Global drivers of groundwater depletion in the Western US  Quantifying interactions between climate change, biodiversity loss, and pollution: PNAS paper on climate policy and water quality  What are the key biophysical risks of the triple planetary crisis, and how do they translate to economic outcomes?  Which policies are needed to address climate change, biodiversity loss, and pollution, and how can modelling efforts quantify the corresponding synergies and trade-offs?  US water pollution and alternative local policies  Investments in knowledge capital: productivity growth as a sustainability policy 7
  • 8. Agriculture is central to addressing the planetary boundaries for biodiversity, nutrient flows, freshwater, climate – what is driving this sector’s resource use? Eutrophication linked to excessive nitrogen fertilizer and phosporous use in river basins Source: Potter et al. (2010) Source: Richardson et al. (2023) Agriculture is the primary driver of deforestation – leading to biodiversity loss (Busch and Ferretti-Gallon)
  • 9. SIMPLE-G model facilitates Global-Local-Global Analysis of Sustainability 9 Baldos et al. (2020), Environmental Modelling and Software
  • 10. -10 40 90 140 190 United States 607 -10 40 90 140 190 China -10 40 90 140 190 Europe -10 40 90 140 190 Latin America 641 -10 40 90 140 190 South Asia -10 40 90 140 190 M. East & N. Africa 260 -10 40 90 140 190 Sub Saharan Africa -10 40 90 140 190 Rest of Asia 35 100 43 -10 40 90 140 190 World population per capita income productivity Global drivers of agricultural output around the world: Population, income, and productivity growth, 2010-2050 Haqiqi et al. (Environmental Research Letters,2023)
  • 11. Global drivers of regional changes in annual groundwater withdrawals (from 2010 to 2050 % change): Results from SIMPLE-G (40) (20) - 20 40 60 (percent) Global population growth Global income growth Global productivity growth US biofuel growth Haqiqi et al. (Environmental Research Letters,2023)
  • 12. Global drivers of change in US annual groundwater withdrawal (from 2010 to 2050 % change) Drivers of US Groundwater by 2050 (30) (25) (20) (15) (10) (5) - 5 10 15 20 25 United States (percent) US TFP US biofuel growth Global productivity growth Global income growth Global population growth Haqiqi et al. (ERL, 2023)
  • 13. Global demand drivers of gridded change in US annual groundwater withdrawal (from 2010 to 2050%): RoW developments are dominant US (income + population) Rest of World (income + population) Haqiqi et al. (2022), International Journal ofWater Resources Development
  • 14. Outline of talk (based on workshop questions)  How can models from different disciplines be combined to provide more robust and comprehensive insights?  Quantifying key drivers behind the triple planetary crisis:  Population change as a driver of biodiversity losses as well as recovery  Global drivers of groundwater depletion in the Western US  Quantifying interactions between climate change and pollution  What are the key biophysical risks of the triple planetary crisis, and how do they translate to economic outcomes?  Which policies are needed to address climate change, biodiversity loss, and pollution, and how can modelling efforts quantify the corresponding synergies and trade-offs?  US water pollution and alternative local policies  Investments in knowledge capital: productivity growth as a sustainability policy 14
  • 15. U.S. climate mitigation could benefit water quality – focus on fertilizer use 15 Capital, 38% Natural gas, 51% Electricity, 2% O&M cost, 9% Cost structure of Ammonia production, % Capital Natural gas Electricity O&M cost 17 16.2 58.8 19.3 24.1 87.8 18.6 47.8 176.2 0 40 80 120 160 200 Electricity Petroleum products Natural gas Change in energy prices, % SCC (51 USD) SCC (76 USD) SCC (152 USD) 30.4 45.3 90.6 0 20 40 60 80 100 Change in ammonia prices, % SCC (51 USD) SCC (76 USD) SCC (152 USD) Zuidema, Liu, Chepeliev, Johnson, et al. PNAS, 2023.
  • 16. Carbon pricing reduces nitrate export to Gulf of Mexico as well as groundwater contamination 16 Climate policy leads to improved water quality Zuidema, Liu, Chepeliev, Johnson, et al. PNAS, 2023.
  • 17. Added benefit of carbon pricing is that it curtails negative spillovers arising from a spatially limited policy 17 Effect on nitrogen fertilizer applications of coupling wetland restoration with carbon pricing Wetlands only Wetlands & $51/ton CO2 Wetlands & $152/ton CO2 Zuidema, Liu, Chepeliev, Johnson, et al. PNAS, 2023.
  • 18. Outline of talk (based on workshop questions)  How can models from different disciplines be combined to provide more robust and comprehensive insights?  Quantifying key drivers behind the triple planetary crisis:  Population change as a driver of biodiversity losses as well as recovery  Global drivers of groundwater depletion in the Western US  Quantifying interactions between climate change and pollution  What are the key biophysical risks of the triple planetary crisis, and how do they translate to economic outcomes?  Which policies are needed to address climate change, biodiversity loss, and pollution, and how can modelling efforts quantify the corresponding synergies and trade-offs?  US water pollution and alternative local policies  Investments in knowledge capital: productivity growth as a sustainability policy 18
  • 19. Economic shocks from Ecosystem Services Dependency models Land-use change modeling with SEALS (Spatial Economic Allocation Landscape Simulator) Currently includes 6 global ecosystem services Includes new version of GTAP-AEZ with 300+ AEZ/Region combinations Land Supply curves parameterized for each AEZ Overview of GTAP-InVEST
  • 20. Baseline land use change to 2030 leads to a degradation of natural capital which lowers global welfare and disproportionately hurts low-income countries Johnson et al. PNAS, 2023: https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2220401120 Ongoing degradation of nature damages low income economies most severely (% welfare lost under baseline)
  • 21. Baseline land use change to 2030 leads to a degradation of natural capital which lowers global welfare and disproportionately hurts low-income countries Johnson et al. PNAS, 2023: https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2220401120 Policies to protect natural capital, including public R&D for agriculture and payments for ecosystem services boost global welfare as well as natural capital. Ensuing gains accrue disproportionately to the lowest income countries! Protecting nature benefits the economy: Greatest gains to low income economies
  • 22. Outline of talk (based on workshop questions)  How can models from different disciplines be combined to provide more robust and comprehensive insights?  Quantifying key drivers behind the triple planetary crisis:  Population change as a driver of biodiversity losses as well as recovery  Global drivers of groundwater depletion in the Western US  Quantifying interactions between climate change and pollution  What are the key biophysical risks of the triple planetary crisis, and how do they translate to economic outcomes?  Which policies are needed to address climate change, biodiversity loss, and pollution, and how can modelling efforts quantify the corresponding synergies and trade-offs?  US water pollution and alternative local policies  Investments in knowledge capital: productivity growth as a sustainability policy 22
  • 23. Yield response Nitrogen Loss Coupling SIMPLE-G with an agro-ecosystem model
  • 24. Nationwide and site-specific nitrate leaching mitigation strategies A Tax B Nutrient management C Controlled drainage D Wetland
  • 25.  Tax N leaching  Increased frequency of N applications  Controlled drainage of fields with subsurface tiles  Wetland restoration Most effective policy to limit non-point N pollution varies by location Liu et al. ERL, 2023
  • 26. Outline of talk (based on workshop questions)  How can models from different disciplines be combined to provide more robust and comprehensive insights?  Quantifying key drivers behind the triple planetary crisis:  Population change as a driver of biodiversity losses as well as recovery  Global drivers of groundwater depletion in the Western US  Quantifying interactions between climate change and pollution  What are the key biophysical risks of the triple planetary crisis, and how do they translate to economic outcomes?  Which policies are needed to address climate change, biodiversity loss, and pollution, and how can modelling efforts quantify the corresponding synergies and trade-offs?  US water pollution and alternative local policies  Investments in knowledge capital: productivity growth as a sustainability policy 26
  • 27. Doing more with less: Globally, strong empirical evidence that TFP growth has reduced agricultural land conversion and GHG emissions TFP = growth in outputs – growth in inputs Source: Fuglie et al. (2022)
  • 28. Where does TFP come from? Linking TFP growth to R&D • TFP depends on (own- & spillin-) knowledge capital: • Knowledge capital accumulates (with a lag) based on historical investments (it also depreciates over time) • The productivity of knowledge capital depends on local conditions (elasticities vary by region) 1/ ( ) O S O O O S L L N N Q A K K Q Q δ δ ρ ρ ρ φ φ − − − = +
  • 29. Much of ag TFP growth can be explained by historical R&D investments • Nearly all of TFP growth in wealthy economies was R&D driven: 1990-2011 Source: Fuglie (2018)
  • 30. WHILE PUBLIC R&D IS A SLOW-MOVING TRAIN….. Time Farm Output Gains (in %) Years 11-23 (45% of Gains) Years 1-5 (<1% of Gains) Years 6-10 (5% of Gains) Year 24-42 (44% of Gains) 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 Output Gains from U.S. Public Agricultural R&D Investments in Year 1950 * *Baldos, U. L. C., Viens, F. G., Hertel, T. W., & Fuglie, K. O. (2019). R&D Spending, Knowledge Capital, and Agricultural Productivity Growth: A Bayesian Approach. Amer. Journal Agri. Econ.
  • 31. Public investments in R&D can generate low cost mitigation as well as lowering the cost of conservation policies 31 Source: Fuglie et al., AEPP (2022)
  • 32. GLASSNET: An International Network of Networks taking Land-Grant Ideals to the World https://glassnet.net