- Afghanistan is highly vulnerable to climate change even though it contributes only 0.06% of global GHG emissions. It has experienced increased temperatures and decreased precipitation in recent decades. - By 2100, temperatures in Afghanistan are projected to increase by 2.7-6.4°C and annual precipitation is projected to decrease by 5-10% on average. This will have significant impacts on sectors like agriculture, water resources, and energy production. - The Kabul River Basin is particularly at risk, as it is projected to see a temperature increase of 2.9°C by 2046-2064 along with a 24% reduction in water availability. Kabul city may face water scarcity in the near future.

1. Obaidullah salehie
Assistant Professor
Department of Environmental Sciences
Faculty of Environment-Kabul University
Climate Change Impacts in
Afghanistan (Kabul River Basin)
RegionalWorkshop on Future Climate projections andTheir Applications in South Asia

2. Outlines
 Introduction
 GHG emissions for Afghanistan and its neighbors
 Afghanistan different climatic regions
 Climate Projections
 Changes inTemperature and in Precipitation
 Sectoral Impacts of Climate Change
 Climatic hazards
 Law and policies
 Projection for Kabul river basin
 Spatial distribution of changes in temperature in the future
 Spatial distribution of changes in precipitation in the future, as compared to the baseline of
1971-2000, in the Kabul basin
 Conclusion
 Recommendation
 References

3. Introduction
• Afghanistan is one of the most vulnerable countries in the world to climate
change although it contributes only 0.06% of the World GHG total emissions.
It has very limited capacity to address the impacts of climate change.
• Afghanistan has experienced a temperature increase substantially higher than
in the global mean, amounting to 1.8°C between 1951 and 2010 (Aich et al
2017).
• By 2100 Afghanistan will face with a strong increase in mean annual
temperature coupled with an overall decrease in water availability (UNEP and
NEPA, 2015).
• The amount of rainfall over the country has decreased by 0.5mm per month or
2% per decade between 1965 and 2015 (IRA, 2015).
• It is urgent need for Afghanistan to strengthen the country’s adaptive capacity
because a changing climate is likely to significantly exacerbate the impacts of
natural hazards.

4. GHG emissions for Afghanistan and its
neighbors
Source:World Resource Institute (2012).

5. Afghanistan different climatic regions based on Koppen classification (USAID, 2016)

6. Climate Projections
Authors By 2050 by the 2100
Savage et al.
(2009); UNEP and
NEPA. (2016
3°C 7°C
RCP8.5
Aich et al. (2017) 1.7–2.3°C 2.7–6.4°C
until 2099
4.5/8.5
Changes inTemperature

7. Change in temperature to 2100 under 3 emissions scenarios (vs. 1970-99 average)

8. Difference in mean annual temperature between a near future period (2021-2050) and the base period (1985-2006) using RCP 4.5.

9. Changes in Precipitation
 Mean annual rainfall changes in the 2090s show conditions are
generally drier (by between 10-40 mm) over much of Afghanistan.
 Much of the drying is due to decreases in spring rainfall (MAM).
 Winters are expected to be significantly drier in the South.

11. Difference of annual precipitation between a near future period (2021-2050) and the base period (1985-2006) as mean of eight
different regional climate models for the representative concentration pathway 4.5 (NEP and NEPA, 2016).

12. Sectoral Impacts of Climate Change
Agriculture: Projected hotter and drier conditions will affect agricultural production by challenging
water access and storage capacity. The recent prolonged drought has contributed to a marked decrease in
livestock numbers. By 2060, large parts of the agricultural economy are likely to have become marginal
without significant investment in water management and irrigation.
Social Development: The poor are most vulnerable to the effects of climate change in Afghanistan.
Climate change is likely to compound existing food security issues and impact heavily upon those
dependent on the agricultural economy.
Water Resources: With projected economic and population growth, Afghanistan’s water storage
limitations and reliance on snowmelt and transboundary watersheds create significant climate change
vulnerability.
Energy: Climatic impacts are most likely to be felt in hydro-electricity production, although large
thermal power plant and transmission infrastructure are also susceptible to flash flooding and heat stress.
Smaller hydropower plants are particularly vulnerable. Hydropower generates 79 percent of total energy
supply.
ECOSYSTEMS: Pressures on Afghanistan’s ecosystems weaken their resilience to climatic change.
Overgrazing and conversion of rangelands for wheat production expose areas to wind and soil erosion.
Changes in vegetation and shifts to higher ranges for grazing increase pressure on alpine ecosystems.

13. Climatic Hazards
Glacier outfalls: Since 1990-2015, Afghanistan lost 13.4% of glacier area (ICIMOD,
2018).
Drought: On average drought cause 280 millions in economic damages to agriculture
each year, extreme event could cost USD 3 billion. Since 1990-2003 experienced
extreme drought.
Flood: Total number of people affected each year approximately 100,000. Extreme event
cost over 500 million USD. Affected number of people would be double by 2050.
Desertification: Affects more than 75% of the total land area in northern, western and
southern regions (MAIL, 2006).
Glacial lake outburst flood

14. Law and policies
 Afghanistan’s Environmental Law
 The National Environment Strategy (NES)
 Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC)
 The National Environmental Action Plan (NEAP)
 National Adaptation Program of Action for Climate Change
(NAPA)
 Afghanistan’s Climate Change Strategy and Action Plan
(ACCSAP)
 Afghanistan’s National Biodiversity Strategy and Action Plan
(NBSAP)

15. Institutions
 NEPA: Policy making and Coordination.
 MAIL: Drought resistant crop varieties and Affordable Micro-irrigation Technology.
 MRRD: Rural access and transportation, water supply, sanitation, and irrigation program, economic
development, and rural agricultural production.
 MEW: Responsible for the development of plans, policies, and laws for the energy sector, as well as
the design and construction of infrastructure for energy generation and distribution. climate change
into national energy planning, particularly in the area of renewable energy
 Ministry of Transportation (MoT): transportation infrastructure face considerable risks from the
floods and extreme weather events that are expected to increase in frequency and severity with a
changing climate.
 Ministry of Urban Development Affairs (MUDA: both MoT and MUDA should aim to integrate
climate change into their current and future development plans, such as through climate proofing of
infrastructure using ecosystem-based adaptation approaches. Moreover, transportation, construction,
and urban areas are among the world’s largest sources of GHG emission, which means that both MoT
and MUDA have important roles to play in developing Afghanistan’s nascent climate change
mitigation efforts and low-emission development strategies (LEDS).

16. Projection for Kabul river basin
 Bromand (2015), increasing mean temperature 2.9°C in the period of 2046-2064.
the Kabul river basin will experience a water scarcity, and will face about 24%
reduction in water availability and expected that potential evapotranspiration
increase about 18%.
 The annually averaged simulated stream discharge (244 mm) is 86% of the
measured average value (284 mm).
The mean annual temperature and precipitation in the Kabul river basin from 2007-2012

17. Spatial distribution of changes in minimum/maximum
temperature in the future, as compared to the baseline of 1971-
2000, in the Kabul basin

18. Spatial distribution of changes in precipitation in the
future, as compared to the baseline of 1971-2000, in the
Kabul basin

19. conclusion
• Afghanistan is more vulnerable but its GHG contribution is less.
• Since 1960, the mean annual temperature in Afghanistan has increased by 0.6
°C and mean decadal temperature by 0.13 °C.
• By 2100, the temperature will rise by 2.7–6.4°C over the country and by 2.9°C
in the period of 2046 - 2064, in the Kabul river basin.
• By 2050 the annual rainfall will decrease between 5-10 percent.
• Climatic disaster suffer Afghan people as well as those relies on natural
resource for their livelihoods.
• Kabul city will face to water scarcity in the near future.

20. Recommendations
• Developing an integrated adaptation strategy to cope with negative impacts and to reap the
positive impacts of climate change.
• Public awareness
• Installation of early warning systems for mitigating the negative impacts e.g., glacier outfalls,
land slides etc.
• Understanding climate change drivers, events , impacts and vulnerability
• Reduction of GHG and adaptation
• Strengthening community adaptive capacity and determinants of coping capacity include
access to education, economic wealth, a healthy population, good governance, and high levels
of human and social capital.
• Applying of a high accurate model compatible with local conditions to simulate different
scenarios under changing climate, cropping patterns and irrigation management practices.
• Efficient water management technologies need to be introduced and agricultural research need
to evolve crop varieties that are suitable for areas under the changing climatic variations.
• Efficient use in energy, renewable energy and carbon capture
• Public transport strategies, vehicles with efficient and alternative fuel use
• Waste management

21. References
1. Afghanistan. (2015). Intended Nationally Determined Contribution. Kabul: National Environmental Protection Agency,
p 5-6.
2. Aich, Valentin., Akhundzadah, Noor Ahmad., Knuerr, Alec., Khoshbeen, Ahmad Jamshed., Hattermann, Fred., Paeth,
Heiko., Scanlon, Andrew and Paton Eva Nora. (2017). Climate Change in Afghanistan Deduced from Reanalysis and
Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX)—South Asia Simulations. Climate article, 5, 38.
3. Azimi, A., and McClauley, D. (2002). “Afghanistan’s Environment in Transition”. Manila: Asian Development Bank.
4. Ikram, Qiyamud Din . (2018). Climate Change Is Happening In Afghanistan. https://www.afghan-web.com/.../climate-
change-is-happening-in-afghanistan
5. Bromand, Mohammad Tayib. (2015). Impact assessment of climate change on water resources in the Kabul river basin,
Afghanistan.
6. Ghulami, Masoud. (2018). Assessment of climate change impacts on water resources and agriculture in data-scarce
Kabul basin, Afghanistan.
7. Islamic Republic of Afghanistan (IRA), (2015). Intended Nationally Determined Contribution. Submission to the
United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change.
8. Sapir, Debarati Guha., Hoyois , Philippe ., Wallemacq Pascaline and Below Regina . (2016). Annual Disaster
Statistical Review , The numbers and trends, p 7.
9. Savage, Matthew., Dougherty, Bill., Hamza Mohammed., Butterfield Ruth and Bharwani Sukaina. (2009). Socio-
Economic Impacts of Climate Change in Afghanistan, p 6-8.
10. UNEP and NEPA. (2016). Introduction to climate change: from science to action in Afghanistan , p 5-7.
11. USAID. (2016). Climate change risk profile. Climate change risk in Afghanistan: country fact sheet. p 2-3.
12. WFP, UNEP and Afghanistan’s National Environmental Protection Agency (NEPA). (2016). Climate change in
Afghanistan. What does it mean for rural livelihoods and food security?. p 5.

22. Thank You