The livestock sector, the pandemic, climate change and natural resource use in sub-Saharan Africa
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This document summarizes a presentation on the impacts of livestock production in sub-Saharan Africa. It discusses how livestock contributes to greenhouse gas emissions, climate change impacts on livestock, and the effects of livestock on land degradation and nutrient cycling. It also describes ongoing research projects examining the impacts of COVID-19 lockdowns on greenhouse gas emissions from pastoralist systems in Northern Kenya, and medium-term impacts of the pandemic on livestock emissions in several African countries. The closing statement emphasizes that climate change poses a major threat requiring societal action, similar to the response to the COVID-19 pandemic.
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The livestock sector, the pandemic, climate change and natural resource use in sub-Saharan Africa
- 1. 12nd September 2020 The livestock sector, the pandemic, climate change and natural resource use in sub-Saharan Africa Sonja Leitner, ILRI, GASL Africa 1 Regional Meeting, 2-3 September 2020
- 2. 22nd September 2020 A lot of focus on COVID-19 & livestock • Transmission of many zoonotic diseases • Interaction between livestock & wildlife • Adverse effects of livestock on the environment Karesh et al., The Lancet, 2012
- 3. 32nd September 2020 Impact of agriculture incl. livestock on the earth Green = „safe operating space“ of the earth Red = current position = agricultural influence Rockström et al., Nature, 2009
- 4. 42nd September 2020 Livestock contributes to climate change • Livestock contributes ~15 % of global greenhouse gas emissions (Gerber et al., FAO, 2013) • Main livestock GHG emission sources: – enteric fermentation (ruminant digestion) – animal manure – deforestation & land degradation Livestock GHG emissions dominate national GHG budgets in many SSA countries! https://ccafs.cgiar.org/bigfacts/#theme=food-emissions © Sonja Leitner, ILRI
- 5. 52nd September 2020 Livestock is affected by climate change • Heat, drought, floods, change in vegetation • Higher disease pressure Rojas-Downing et al., Climate Risk Man., 2018 © Sonja Leitner, ILRI © ILRI www.pikist.com
- 6. 62nd September 2020 Livestock & land degradation (Onyango, Merbold, Rufino et al., ReDEAL project, ongoing) http://wp.lancs.ac.uk/restoringafricangrazing/ Causes: • Deforestation & land conversion • Crop farming • Livestock density & grazing Consequences • Loss of vegetation cover (provision of feed, food, fibre) • Loss of ecosystem regulation capacity (regulate pests & control diseases, soil stabilization, water filtration, nutrient cycling) © Lutz Merbold, ILRI Healthy soils healthy plants healthy animals healthy humans
- 7. 72nd September 2020 Livestock & nutrient cycling Nutrient re-distribution via livestock across landscape: • High local nitrogen concentrations in livestock enclosures (“bomas”) 10% of soil N2O in SSA comes from bomas! high air pollutant emissions (ammonia, NOx) leaching of groundwater pollutants (nitrate) • Lack off nitrogen elsewhere poor forage quality (low protein content) soil mining leading to loss of soil organic carbon © Sonja Leitner & Lutz Merbold, ILRI
- 8. 82nd September 2020 Livestock & nutrient cycling Unsustainable, especially with increasing animal numbers & limited land availability long-term destabilization of agro-ecosystems more susceptible to disturbance (e.g. pandemics, locusts, extreme weather events) Circular economy, holistic approach many concepts, few data for Africa, esp. regarding environmental pollution
- 9. 92nd September 2020 What we do on COVID-19 Impact of lockdown on livestock GHG emissions from pastoralist systems in Northern Kenya Reduced movement of animals Change in animal numbers (herd size)? Change in feed availability & intake? Different scenario combinations, survey data of key stakeholders Impact on absolute GHG emissions & emission intensities (= emissions per unit of product) Movement Herd size Feed availability Absolute emissions Emission intensities Likelihood of scenario - - - - = Medium to High - - = - - Medium - - + - - Low to Medium - + - + + Low - + = + + Low - + + = = Low - = - - + Low to Medium - = = = = Low to Medium - = + = - Low to Medium © Sonja Leitner, ILRI (Graham, Jensen & Merbold, ongoing research)
- 10. 102nd September 2020 What we do on COVID-19 Medium-term impact of pandemic on livestock & manure GHG emissions in Uganda, Kenya and Ethopia Programme for Climate-Smart Livestock (PCSL) Activity data (liveweight, milk production, manure management etc.) Household surveys (RHoMIS) 4-year project (started end of 2018) COVID-19 was not planned, but is a natural experiment! © Sonja Leitner, ILRI © Sonja Leitner, ILRI
- 11. 112nd September 2020 Closing remark … unlike the pandemic, “climate change … threatens the very basis for continued human prosperity and requires an equal, if not greater, societal mobilization” Markard & Rosenbloom, Sustain. Sci. Pract. Policy, 2020
- 12. 122nd September 2020 Thank you and all the donors for funding our research! Dr. Sonja Leitner International Livestock Research Institute (ILRI) Mazingira Centre for Environmental Research and Education Box 30709, Nairobi, Kenya http://mazingira.ilri.org s.leitner@cgiar.org This presentation is licensed for use under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International Licence.
Editor's Notes
- Plus transport and processing but small contribution in SSA
- Transmission of many zoonotic diseases with pandemic potential via livestock to humans Interaction between livestock & wildlife (directly via disease transmission, indirectly via habitat destruction, displacement, invasive species, etc.) But there are many other adverse effects of livestock on the environment and with this on animals and humans largely neglected in Africa
- To put this into perspective: inner green shading = global “safe operating space” that our world can cope with. red wedges = estimate of the current position for each variable that human’s operate in. 7/11 areas affected by agriculture & livestock 3 concrete examples
- Plus transport and processing but small contribution in SSA
- Feedback loops: weak animals more susceptible to disease Animal disease supresses productivity more animals more GHGs
- 17% of Kenya has been degraded “Degraded land” loses its ability to provide food, fiber and water, support processes necessary to maintain life, regulate pests and pollination, and provide us with a sense of cultural identity and inspiration
- Poor forage quality poor animal health susceptible to diseases & livestock have to go into forests further disease transmission…. Here grassland, but similar in mixed crop-livestock systems: no or little fertilizer, continuous cropping (maize) nutrient mining
- Reduced land availability due to land fragmentation The better the systems work and leakages are avoided the more efficient and thus less additional land or ressources needed and thus lower probabilities of pandemics (basic hygiene when you think about watering points etc.)
- COVID19 will affect achieving the Sustainable Development Goals Some research regarding socio-economic impact on smallholder cropland farming Very little information on environmental effects Migration & movement within and across borders restricted due to lockdown Impact of reduced locomotion on methane emissions (less movement less energy requirement less feed intake less eneric CH4 production)
- 4-year project, start in 2019, COVID19 was not planned but we’ll certainly see an effect!
- COVID-19 will impact on the relationships of livestock with climate and natural resources, but we don’t know what these will look like we have studies underway that will reveal/inform the impacts and opportunities to build forward better Think climate projections for Africa (and most developing countries): will be hit first and hardest by climate change, have least resistence Our duty to find ways how to make livestock agro-ecosystems sustainable and climate-smart and really including the environment in the one health perspective