2.1 Land Use, Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Co-Benefits - Professor John Porter. Biodiversity Workshop 25 October 2017

1. KSLA – FACCE Seminar
Slide 1
FACUTLY OF SCIENCE
Department of Plant and Environmental Sciences
John R Porter
Supagro/INRA/CIRAD Montpellier FR
SCIENCE Copenhagen University DK
NRI London UK
Lincoln University NZ
OECD Workshop
Land Use, GHG Emissions and Co-Benefits
October 25 2017

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Slide 2
Topics
Trade-offs - Impacts Adaptation Mitigation
Identities and GHG emissions
Carbonomics

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Slide 3
A ’Perfect Storm’ for the 21st Century – have
we been here before?
Energy Population
Food
Agriculture
Beddington 2009

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Slide 4
Agriculture and the SDGs

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Slide 5
Food Security: IPCC AR5

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The five IPCC assessments – crop yields
1990 to 2014
Porter et al, 2017

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FACUTLY OF SCIENCE
Department of Plant and Environmental Sciences
I A M – Trade-offs

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Slide 8
Identities – Metrics for GHGs

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Slide 9
App. 1/3
Agriculture
Energyuse
Energy-based emissions

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The Kaya Identity – UNFCC/IPCC
≡ GHG
GHG
ENERGY
ENERGY
GDP
GDP
POPUL
ATION
×
Fuels Sectors
×
Services
× POPUL
ATION
Scale independent - deconstruction

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Slide 11
App. 1/3
Agriculture
Energyuse
Non–energy emissions

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JRP’s Simple Land-Use Identity (KPI)
× ≡ GHG
YIELD
AREA
ENERGY
YIELD
GHG
ENERGY
x × AREA
Production Technology Fuels
Porter 2009

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Slide 13
GHG Land Emissions

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Slide 14
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
1970 1980 1990 2000
Relativevalues
GHG(energy)/produced unit
GHG(total)
GHG(soil)/produced unit
GHG(all)/produced unit
GHG(LUC)/produced unit
c
c
c
c
outc
outc
inc
inc
E
outc
soil
outc
LUC
crop area
area
DM
DM
E
E
E
E
GHG
E
GHG
E
GHG
GHG c

















 ;
;
;
;;;
Emissions per produced crop
100 % more crop production
FA0(2013)
Bennetzen et al. 2014

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0
4
8
12
16
20
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
PgCO2-eq./year
BAU (range)
Past
Constant GHG/product
Biophysical potential
20 US$ / t CO2-eq
50 US$ / t CO2-eq
100 US$ / t CO2-eq
80 % cut in 2050
Future emissions scenarios
Future emissions ?Past emissions
2007-2050:
80 % more livestock production
50 % more crop production
FA0(2006)
Bennetzen et al. 2014

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Slide 16
Connecting wealth, population, consumption and
GHG emissions
population
capita
GDP
GDP
energy
energy
GHG
GHGkaya 
area
area
drymatter
drymatter
energy
energy
GHG
GHGKPI 
population
capita
calorie
calorie
totalprot
totalprot
animalprot
Demand 
.
.
.
.
.
animalpop
animalpop
energy
energy
GHG
GHG
bio
bio
bio


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Slide 17
How do we link the global eco-nomic system to the
global eco-logical system? - ‘nomic (law) and logos
(study)’.
The global economic system is based on the flows
of C
Preserving the global ecological system is based on
maintaining existing fossil and non-fossil stocks of C
How do we value the preservation of C stocks
higher than the use of C?
Carbonomics - OECD

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Valuing C stocks
Need a macro-economic solution to a macro-ecological
issue – currently we have micro-policies.
Close both the C and economic cycles. Bretton Woods
Mark 2 – ‘The Circular C Economy’.
The value of a currency depends on the stocks of C
(fossil and non-fossil) that a country has
Rich countries would then be those with large C
reserves and this would promote C stocks

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Conclusions
Trade-offs between impacts, adaptation and
mitigation
Use identity based-methods to link emissions, life-
style, diet, area and consumption. What’s going well
and what is not….
Major rethink needed to reconcile the global
economic system to the zero-sum nature of the
global ecological system