The document discusses the complexity in predicting coral reef responses to climate stressors like temperature and ocean acidification. It presents two models examining community interactions and biochemical feedbacks between corals and the environment. Scenarios altering the stress impacts on different species showed predictions are sensitive to uncertainties. Biogeochemical coupling between corals and water further complicates predictions. The conclusion is that simple projections of reef responses to climate change are dangerous, and more studies considering multiple stressors and species are needed.

1. Consequences of Ecological, Evolutionary and Biogeochemical Uncertainty for Coral Reef Responses to Climatic Stress
Authors: Peter J. Mumby, and Robert van Woesik
Presented by: Neidibel Martínez González
Graduate Student Environmental Science UPR-RP

2. Peter J. Mumby
Career BSc-Marine Biology, University of Liverpool PhD -Coral reef remote sensing- University of Sheffield NERC Post-doctoral Research Fellow, University of Newcastle Professor and Royal Society Research Fellow, University of Exeter, England Work Leader of the Marine Spatial Ecology Lab, University of Queensland, Australia
•Remote sensing for mapping coral reefs, seagrass beds and mangroves
•Improve the management of coral reefs.
•Plug gaps in our understanding of reef processes
Award
•Post-doctoral Fellowship.
•Awarded a Royal Society Fellowship
•Pew Fellowship in Marine Conservation in 2010
•Rosenstiel Award for excellence in marine biology and fisheries
•Marsh Award for contributions to marine conservation

3. Robert van Woesik
Work
•Population and community ecology of scleractinian corals
•The ecology of reef-building corals, including the effects of land-use change and global- climate change.
Career B.Sc. University of Queensland, Australia 1983 Ph.D. James Cook University, Australia 1993
•The Environmental Editor for the international journal Coral Reefs from 2006 to 2013
•Director of the Institute for Research on Global Climate Change since 2009.

4. Content
•Objective
•Introduction
•Key uncertainties
•Model components
•Meta-Analysis
•Scenarios
•Scenarios results
•Outcome
•New perspective
•Other questions
•Conclusion
•Discussion

5. Objective
•Understand the complexity in the studies of response of corals to climate change.
•Identifying emerging theories about ecological heritance.
•Generate new hypothesis in this area.

6. Introduction
Coral Reef
•Located in the tropics
•Ecosystem sensibility due to
Composed of calcifying organism
Symbiotic relationship with algaes

7. Introduction
Environmental stressor
•Temperature
Short term, acute impact Bleaching process
Chronic impact  limit the metabolism capacity
•Water acidity
Reduces the ability of calcifying organism to secrete calcium carbonate skeletons

8. ta
International collaboration among high school /secondary school students : http://i2i.stanford.edu/AcidOcean/AcidOcean_Es.htm

9. Introduction
General statements negative effect of stressor in a specifics coral species
General conclusion- future degradation of coral reefs
Limitations of this statements:
a) Variable response among taxa
b) Indirect interactions among species
c) The scope of acclimatization or adaptation to changes

10. Example
Yes
No

11. Model components
•As physiological effects translate to demographic processes.
•Indirect ecological interactions among species.
•The ability of coral reefs to modify their chemical.
•Adaptive trans-generational plasticity.

12. Model components
•As physiological effects translate to demographic processes.
•Indirect ecological interactions among species.
•The ability of coral reefs to modify their chemical.
•Adaptive trans-generational plasticity.
Predicting behavior of systems influenced by climate change

13. Physiological effects/Demographic process
Some corals maintain constant somatic growth under acidified conditions
 at the expense of skeletal density and strength
(Hoegh 2011)

14. Indirect ecological interactions
•Example:
Reversing the effect of climate- related stress on macroalgae from being positive to negative had no influence on system behavior.
Contrast, the system was highly sensitive to a change in the stress upon herbivorous fishes.

15. Environmental chemical modifying
The coral metabolite activity reduced aragonite (primary form of calcium carbonate in oceans) reducing the pH of the water
•How much time is needed for the changes in ocean chemistry influences the natural environmental dynamics in corals.

16. Adaptive trans-generational plasticity
Genetic change
•The variability between populations  differences in adaptation process.
Trans-generational plasticity
•Offspring (corals and fish) be less stressed by environmental changes than their father without any genetic mutation will epigenetic mechanisms
Metylacion / demethylation cytosine in DNA  all chemical processes that modify the activity of DNA without altering its sequence.
 Not studied in marine organisms

18. Meta Analysis
•Glass, 1976
•A process combining result of related studies with the purpose of reaching one conclusion. (Cespedes 1995)
•The MA is in essence a literature review, but it can relate systematically and quantifies diversity of results with the purpose of provides quantitative and qualitative conclusions about the studied aspect.
(Céspedes Valcárcel 1995). Revista Cubana de Medicina Militar

19. Two Qualitative Models
•Incorporating the community level interactions between the species of interest and other benthic species.
Stressor include: elevated temperatura + ocean acidification
•Incorporating biochemical feedbacks that allow organisms to modify the stress environment that they experience.
Both components of ocean acidification

20. J
I
Two metrics from the community matrix:
•The Adjoint metrics  number and direction of complementary feedback (J/I)
•The weighted metrics  quantifies the ambiguity of this prediction
 Evaluating the ratio of feedbacks of the opposing sign between I and j.

22. Scenario
•First issue:
Alter individual components of the model by neutralising the effects of stress on corals
Scenario C = the effects of stress on corals
Scenario E = the effects of stress on fishes
Scenario G = the effects of stress on macroalgae, from positive to negative
•Second issue:
Simplifying one of the benthic interactions.
Scenario B y L = removing the effect of macroalgae on zoanthids

23. Scenario
•Third issue:
Created biogeochemical feedbacks between the benthos and overlying water column.
Scenario I = alleviating the acidification stress upon corals and fishes
Scenario k = added a second feedback such that coral calcification reduced aragonita.
Scenario L = removed the link between macroalgae and zoanthids

25. Result
•The predictions of the effect of stress at the community level are very sensitive to the uncertainties of the impact of stressors in different taxa.
•The existence of biogeochemical coupling between benthic and water column complicates predictions even in the simplest models.

26. Outcome
•Consequences of uncertainties in predicting response of coral reefs to climate change.
How long events of increased temperature and pCO2 (partial pressure) influence on the physical and biogeochemical environmental experience of reef organisms?

27. Heron island

28. New perspective
•32 years of daily temperature data
•Variation in temperature is greater at smaller scales of time (comparing daily and monthly with years)
•This would be useful, practical or reliable?
They propose a study of cloning corals and handling exposure as a function of the magnitude and variability of this exposure.

29. Other questions
•Sites with less variability in the frequency of thermal stress than seen in Heron Island have a higher risk for bleaching during abnormalities.
Combining the systematic analyze of stress responses with remote sensing data to predict the outcome of stress in different localities.

30. Ecological inheritance
•Construction of ecological niches generates ecological heritage.
•Corals are important ecosystem engineers.
This ecosystem is under strong selection pressure due to climate change.
Coral reef are excellent to test the theory of niche construction.

31. Conclusion
•It is very dangerous to make simple projections of the response of reefs to climate change, particularly on both a study of a single stressor and / or a limited number of species.
•Studies of coral stress face many challenges, but has a great potential for:
The development of "Evolutionary New Knowledge“
To create new ecological theories.

32. Discussion Questions
What do you think about the meta-analysis, and it effectiveness to investigate corals? In what other investigation camp it might be useful?
What do you think about the complexity in the study of coral reefs?

33. References
•Referencia de diagramam de calcification ; http://i2i.stanford.edu/AcidOcean/AcidOcean_Es.htm
•Referencia meta analysis:. Alfredo J. Céspedes Valcárcel. (1995). El meta-análisis. Revista Cubana de Medicina Militar. CP 11700. Recovery by: http://bvs.sld.cu/revistas/mil/vol24_2_95/mil11295.htm
• Marine Spatial Ecology Lab. Peter Mumby http://www.marines patialecologyl ab.org /people/peter-mumby/
•Van Woesik, Robert, Florida Institute of Technology, Faculty, recovery by: http://www.fit.edu/faculty/profiles/profile.php?value=169
•Hoegh, G.P. (2011). Shared Skeletal Supprt in a Coral Hydroid Symbiosis. PubMed,Openi. Recovery by http://openi.nlm.nih.gov/detailedresult.php?img=3114865_pone.0020946.g008&req=4