Anthropogenically induced global climate change has profound implications for marine
ecosystems and the economic and social systems that depend upon them. The
relationship between temperature and individual performance is reasonably well
understood, and much climate-related research has focused on potential shifts in
distribution and abundance driven directly by temperature. However, recent work has
revealed that both abiotic changes and biological responses in the ocean will be
substantially more complex. For example, changes in ocean chemistry may be more
important than changes in temperature for the performance and survival of many
organisms. Ocean circulation, which drives larval transport, will also change, with
important consequences for population dynamics. Furthermore, climatic impacts on one
or a few leverage species may result in sweeping community-level changes. Finally,
synergistic effects between climate and other anthropogenic variables, particularly fishing
pressure, will likely exacerbate climate-induced changes. Efforts to manage and conserve
living marine systems in the face of climate change will require improvements to the
existing predictive framework. Key directions for future research include identifying key
demographic transitions that influence population dynamics, predicting changes in the
community-level impacts of ecologically dominant species, incorporating populations
ability to evolve (adapt), and understanding the scales over which climate will change and
living systems will respond.
Modelling climate change impacts on nutrients and primary production in coast...Marco Pesce
The document describes an integrated modelling approach used to project the impacts of climate change on nutrient loadings and phytoplankton communities in coastal waters. The approach combines climate models, a hydrological model, and an ecological model. Climate models project increases in winter precipitation and summer temperatures. The hydrological model shows increases in winter nutrient loads and decreases in summer. The ecological model then projects changes in nutrient concentrations, phytoplankton biomass, and species composition in the coastal waters.
This document summarizes the results of modeling exercises that simulate the impact of climate change on two types of surface aquifers: lakes and rivers. For lakes, it focuses on the impact of global warming on the thermal structure of two Italian lakes, Lake Como and Lake Pusiano, using a hydrodynamic model. The model projects an increase in average yearly lake temperature of 0.04°C per year from 1970-2000 and 0.03°C per year from 2001-2050 according to IPCC climate change scenarios. These increases are expected to reduce mixing between lake layers and impact phytoplankton growth and cyanobacteria blooms. For rivers, it describes a methodology using models to estimate changes in nutrient loads in
This document discusses the vulnerability of India's coastal zones to climate change. It notes that coastal zones are important regions for India, containing major cities and over a third of the population, but are vulnerable to sea level rise, cyclones, and changes in temperature and precipitation from climate change. Vulnerability is defined as the degree to which a system is impacted by or resilient to climate hazards, and is determined by exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. The document outlines how these factors contribute to India's coastal vulnerability and the socioeconomic impacts the country may face, such as slowed economic growth and increased food insecurity.
The document summarizes key findings from the Third Symposium on the Ocean in a High-CO2 World, which convened over 500 experts. The main points are:
1) Ocean acidification is increasing at an unprecedented rate due to human CO2 emissions and is affecting ecosystems and biodiversity. It has the potential to impact food security and limit the ocean's ability to absorb more CO2.
2) Research shows adverse effects on some organisms' ability to form shells and skeletons as well as reduced survival, growth, and reproduction. However, some organisms can tolerate or benefit from acidification.
3) If emissions continue high, large parts of the polar oceans will become corrosive by decades
This document summarizes a study that quantifies expected hydrological responses in the Aral Sea Drainage Basin in Central Asia to projections of climate change from 20 general circulation models. The study aims to investigate how uncertainties in future climate change interact with the effects of historic human redistributions of water for irrigation. Results show that errors in single model temperature and precipitation projections can significantly influence projected river runoff trends. However, multi-model ensemble means have relatively small influence on trends. Projected climate change will considerably increase net water loss through evapotranspiration. Maintained irrigation practices will further amplify this effect and likely lead to near-total river runoff depletion with risk of ecological impacts downstream.
Andersson_Kline et al_2015_OA review_OceanographyDavid Kline
This document discusses different approaches used in ocean acidification research and their effectiveness. It begins by providing background on ocean acidification and the challenges it poses. It then discusses several key approaches: observations of natural systems, experimental manipulations in laboratories and fields, data from the geological record, and numerical models. Each approach provides insights but also has limitations. The most effective research combines multiple approaches to test hypotheses and improve understanding and projections of ecosystem impacts from ocean acidification. The ultimate goal is to inform policies to address ocean acidification and its consequences.
1. The document examines tropical hydrology and the need for further research on moisture cycling, catchment processes, and long-term data collection across the humid tropics.
2. It discusses the highly variable and intense nature of the tropical hydrological cycle compared to other regions, and how human activities are rapidly altering tropical landscapes and hydrology.
3. The research vision calls for integrated studies of water fluxes from subsurface to atmosphere across strong environmental gradients, as well as coordinated long-term monitoring networks to understand low-frequency dynamics in the context of a warming climate and continued land use change.
Climate Change & Anthropogenic Impact On Water ResourcesVempi Satriya
Human activities are clearly influencing the climate system and causing changes that are affecting water resources in several ways. According to the IPCC, over half of the increase in surface temperatures since the 1950s is due to human greenhouse gas emissions. As the climate continues to warm, precipitation patterns are projected to change in ways that will impact water availability and quality. Infrastructure like dams and reservoirs has altered water flows, and building more could help address issues like declining storage capacity but also risks impacts on environmental flows. Managing these tradeoffs between human and environmental water needs is an ongoing challenge.
Modelling climate change impacts on nutrients and primary production in coast...Marco Pesce
The document describes an integrated modelling approach used to project the impacts of climate change on nutrient loadings and phytoplankton communities in coastal waters. The approach combines climate models, a hydrological model, and an ecological model. Climate models project increases in winter precipitation and summer temperatures. The hydrological model shows increases in winter nutrient loads and decreases in summer. The ecological model then projects changes in nutrient concentrations, phytoplankton biomass, and species composition in the coastal waters.
This document summarizes the results of modeling exercises that simulate the impact of climate change on two types of surface aquifers: lakes and rivers. For lakes, it focuses on the impact of global warming on the thermal structure of two Italian lakes, Lake Como and Lake Pusiano, using a hydrodynamic model. The model projects an increase in average yearly lake temperature of 0.04°C per year from 1970-2000 and 0.03°C per year from 2001-2050 according to IPCC climate change scenarios. These increases are expected to reduce mixing between lake layers and impact phytoplankton growth and cyanobacteria blooms. For rivers, it describes a methodology using models to estimate changes in nutrient loads in
This document discusses the vulnerability of India's coastal zones to climate change. It notes that coastal zones are important regions for India, containing major cities and over a third of the population, but are vulnerable to sea level rise, cyclones, and changes in temperature and precipitation from climate change. Vulnerability is defined as the degree to which a system is impacted by or resilient to climate hazards, and is determined by exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. The document outlines how these factors contribute to India's coastal vulnerability and the socioeconomic impacts the country may face, such as slowed economic growth and increased food insecurity.
The document summarizes key findings from the Third Symposium on the Ocean in a High-CO2 World, which convened over 500 experts. The main points are:
1) Ocean acidification is increasing at an unprecedented rate due to human CO2 emissions and is affecting ecosystems and biodiversity. It has the potential to impact food security and limit the ocean's ability to absorb more CO2.
2) Research shows adverse effects on some organisms' ability to form shells and skeletons as well as reduced survival, growth, and reproduction. However, some organisms can tolerate or benefit from acidification.
3) If emissions continue high, large parts of the polar oceans will become corrosive by decades
This document summarizes a study that quantifies expected hydrological responses in the Aral Sea Drainage Basin in Central Asia to projections of climate change from 20 general circulation models. The study aims to investigate how uncertainties in future climate change interact with the effects of historic human redistributions of water for irrigation. Results show that errors in single model temperature and precipitation projections can significantly influence projected river runoff trends. However, multi-model ensemble means have relatively small influence on trends. Projected climate change will considerably increase net water loss through evapotranspiration. Maintained irrigation practices will further amplify this effect and likely lead to near-total river runoff depletion with risk of ecological impacts downstream.
Andersson_Kline et al_2015_OA review_OceanographyDavid Kline
This document discusses different approaches used in ocean acidification research and their effectiveness. It begins by providing background on ocean acidification and the challenges it poses. It then discusses several key approaches: observations of natural systems, experimental manipulations in laboratories and fields, data from the geological record, and numerical models. Each approach provides insights but also has limitations. The most effective research combines multiple approaches to test hypotheses and improve understanding and projections of ecosystem impacts from ocean acidification. The ultimate goal is to inform policies to address ocean acidification and its consequences.
1. The document examines tropical hydrology and the need for further research on moisture cycling, catchment processes, and long-term data collection across the humid tropics.
2. It discusses the highly variable and intense nature of the tropical hydrological cycle compared to other regions, and how human activities are rapidly altering tropical landscapes and hydrology.
3. The research vision calls for integrated studies of water fluxes from subsurface to atmosphere across strong environmental gradients, as well as coordinated long-term monitoring networks to understand low-frequency dynamics in the context of a warming climate and continued land use change.
Climate Change & Anthropogenic Impact On Water ResourcesVempi Satriya
Human activities are clearly influencing the climate system and causing changes that are affecting water resources in several ways. According to the IPCC, over half of the increase in surface temperatures since the 1950s is due to human greenhouse gas emissions. As the climate continues to warm, precipitation patterns are projected to change in ways that will impact water availability and quality. Infrastructure like dams and reservoirs has altered water flows, and building more could help address issues like declining storage capacity but also risks impacts on environmental flows. Managing these tradeoffs between human and environmental water needs is an ongoing challenge.
The document discusses climate change and its causes according to research by Team Norvergence. It finds that the planet's climate has cycled throughout history, but the global temperature has increased 1 degree Celsius in the last 120 years. Human activities like burning fossil fuels and deforestation have raised greenhouse gas levels exponentially compared to natural levels, influencing the climate. The influence of human emissions on climate change is now overwhelming and causing effects like ocean acidification.
The Hydrology of high Arctic Lakes and Climatechris benston
The document discusses how climate change is affecting the phenology of Arctic and Antarctic seabirds. It finds that seabird phenology is influenced by numerous variables, including species, location, sea ice extent, food supply, and temperature. Data presented shows that Emperor Penguin populations decline with decreased sea ice and warmer springs, while Snow Petrel populations increase with more sea ice. In the Arctic, Common Murre and Thick-billed Murre colonies do best with moderate sea surface temperature increases but are negatively impacted by extreme temperature changes. The conclusion is that while climate change is having adverse effects, more long-term research is needed to determine its full impacts due to high variability between species and locations.
Presented by Dr. Shailesh Nayak Key-note Address at Achieving Sustainable Development Goals and Strengthening Science of Climate Resilience, Multi-Stakeholders
This document discusses the risks of continuing economic growth within planetary boundaries and finite resources. It argues that the current economic system is unsustainable and a new paradigm is needed that incorporates environmental and social costs. Specific problems highlighted include climate change, biodiversity loss, pollution, and resource constraints like peak oil. The document calls for reforms in many areas including economic indicators, business models, finance, policy frameworks and education to enable a transition to a sustainable society within planetary boundaries.
A summary of key findings from the IPCC 5th Assessment Report by Anne Hollowed, Alaska Fisheries Science Center, USA
SICCME open session, 17 September 2014, ICES Annual Science Conference, A Coruña, Spain
Climate Change and Water Resources AnalysisMichael DePue
This document summarizes a presentation given on adapting water resources technical analyses to climate change. It discusses several key climate change trends that could impact analyses, including increased precipitation intensities, a longer growing season, and increased drought risk. It outlines how these trends could influence various technical analyses and models used in areas like riverine hydrology, coastal surge modeling, and hydraulic structures. These impacts may include changes to design rainfalls, vegetation changes, erosion impacts, and combined probability issues. The presentation argues technical analyses will need to adapt to incorporate these anticipated climate change impacts.
A safe operating space for humanity (Rockstrom 2009) Lecturas recomendadas S...Ecologistas en Accion
- A new framework is proposed called "planetary boundaries" to define environmental thresholds that should not be crossed to maintain a stable state similar to the Holocene era.
- Nine key Earth system processes are identified that have potential tipping points, and three (climate change, biodiversity loss, and nitrogen cycle interference) have already exceeded their proposed boundaries.
- Crossing certain biophysical thresholds through human activities could have disastrous consequences by pushing the Earth system into a new state less suitable for human development.
This document summarizes research on rainwater harvesting as an adaptation to climate change. It reviews evidence that the Holocene period experienced significant climate variability, including periods of aridity and drought. It hypothesizes that during periods of climate fluctuations, rather than migrating, people may have adapted by modifying their dwelling environments through rainwater harvesting to optimize water availability. The document examines archaeological, historical and paleoclimate records to test this hypothesis and find a correlation between heightened efforts to construct rainwater harvesting structures during abrupt climate fluctuations in response to aridity and drought.
This document summarizes research on spatial and temporal patterns of the algae Pseudo-nitzschia in central California and how they relate to regional oceanography. Major blooms occurred in 1991, 1995, 1998, 2000, and 2002. Blooms often initiated in southern California and appeared to propagate northward. Laboratory experiments showed blooms were generally nitrogen limited rather than limited by silicon or iron. Large-scale blooms are inconsistent with local oceanographic drivers and may be influenced more by latitudinal changes in regional conditions. Monitoring programs have difficulty predicting blooms due to thin subsurface layers of algae that are difficult to detect.
This document contains descriptions of various topics related to the environment and Earth sciences. It provides the topic name, a brief description of the topic, and assigns it to a panel. Some of the topics covered include atmospheric kinetics, behavioural ecology, biogeochemical cycles, boundary layer meteorology, climate and climate change, community ecology, conservation ecology, earth engineering, and earth resources.
Planning For Climate Change In The Technical Analysis 6 9 09Michael DePue
The document discusses how climate change trends should be incorporated into floodplain mapping and flood control project planning. It summarizes reports on topics like increased precipitation and sea level rise. It recommends considering a range of climate change scenarios in technical analyses, like higher sea levels and more intense storms. Adaptation strategies may include revised flood maps, upgraded infrastructure, and modified planning guidelines.
Climate is the statistics of weather over long periods of time, while climate change refers to significant long-term shifts in weather patterns. The document discusses several lines of evidence for rapid climate change, including rising global temperatures and CO2 levels from ice core data. It also outlines theories for what causes climate change such as changes in Earth's orbit, the carbon dioxide level in the atmosphere, and variations in solar activity. The impacts of climate change include rising sea levels, stronger extreme weather events, and threatened plant and animal species.
- A new framework is proposed called "planetary boundaries" to define environmental thresholds that should not be crossed to maintain a stable state similar to the current Holocene period that has enabled human civilization.
- Crossing certain biophysical boundaries could have disastrous consequences by pushing the Earth system into a new state less suitable for human development.
- Three key boundaries - climate change, biodiversity loss, and interference with the nitrogen cycle - have already been exceeded according to the analysis, indicating the environment is already being threatened by human activity.
Global warming is part of natural climate cycles according to the document. It argues that the Earth's climate is primarily influenced by solar activity and fluctuations in the sun's irradiance. The document provides several lines of evidence from historical temperature and greenhouse gas records, as well as studies on plankton and agriculture, to support its view that global warming poses no significant risks and may provide economic benefits from increased growing seasons and rainfall. However, it does not consider the potential long-term consequences of rising sea levels or more severe storms.
Land use-cover-trends-climate-variability-nexus-in-the-njoro-river-catchmentoircjournals
Anthropogenic activities have consequences on the land use/cover trends in the watershed and subsequently on the hydrological characteristics of rivers through intertwine of climate variability. The interplay between land use changes and climate variability are seen as contributory causes of catchment degradation in Kenya. The land use/cover changes increase impervious ground surfaces, decrease infiltration rate and increase runoff rate thereby affecting the hydrological characteristics of rivers. This study considers the interactions between climate variability and land use/cover changes in the river Njoro catchment in Kenya. The River Njoro drains into the lake Nakuru basin one of the Great Rift Valley Lakes in Kenya. The objectives of the study were: To evaluate the land-use and land cover patterns and changes in Njoro River catchment between 1996 and 2016, analyze the temperature and rainfall variations between 1996 and 2016 and compare the land use/cover changes with the variation in the rainfall and temperature. Landsat images and secondary data on water quality parameters were used in this study. The study showed that there was significant variation in rainfall and temperature trends in the Njoro river catchment and therefore the dynamics of land use/land cover in the river Njoro would be more attributed to anthropogenic activities than climate variability.
The Earth is a complex system consisting of four major interacting spheres: the geosphere, hydrosphere, atmosphere, and biosphere. The geosphere includes the solid Earth and its interior. The hydrosphere contains all of Earth's water. The atmosphere is the gaseous envelope surrounding the planet. The biosphere comprises all living organisms and organic matter. These spheres constantly interact through biogeochemical cycles and energy exchanges. For example, volcanoes can emit gases into the atmosphere while damaging forests and human settlements.
There are 9 planetary boundaries related to climate change, ocean acidification, chemical pollution, nitrogen and phosphorus loading, freshwater withdrawals, land conversion, biodiversity loss, air pollution and ozone layer depletion. Exceeding these boundaries risks irreversible environmental changes. Currently, the boundaries for climate change and biosphere integrity related to biodiversity loss have already been exceeded due to human activities like burning fossil fuels, large scale agriculture and deforestation. Urgent global cooperation is needed to transition systems and policies to prioritize environmental sustainability over unlimited economic growth to avoid catastrophic consequences.
Climate Change and Maritime Sector Essay Sampleessayprime
Climate change is affecting the maritime sector in several ways. Rising sea levels and changes in erosion and sedimentation patterns are impacting ports and shipping channels. Melting polar ice caps are opening new shipping routes but also increasing risks in polar regions for inadequately prepared vessels. Climate change is also negatively impacting marine ecosystems and fish stocks, posing challenges for fisheries managers and the fishing industry. While some new opportunities may arise for the maritime sector through activities like Arctic shipping lanes and mineral exploitation, the sector will also face risks and need to make infrastructure changes to adapt.
The document discusses how phytoplankton play a key role in the biological carbon pump by transferring carbon from the atmosphere to the oceans. It explains that rising CO2 levels and climate change may impact phytoplankton physiology, community structure, and size, which could influence the efficiency of the biological carbon pump and the ocean's ability to absorb carbon long-term. The review aims to explore how predicted temperature increases and changes to the carbonate system could affect phytoplankton traits in order to understand implications for the biological carbon pump and future carbon sequestration in the oceans.
This document discusses climate change adaptation efforts for coastal protection and management in India. It notes that about 20-25% of India's population lives within 50 km of its long coastline, which is affected by erosion. The Asian Development Bank is supporting India's Sustainable Coastal Protection and Management Investment Program to develop scientific coastal management approaches. This includes building offshore artificial reefs and berms to stabilize coastlines. Shoreline management plans were also created. Technical assistance funded guidelines for climate change adaptation and established a coastal information system. The impacts of climate change like sea level rise pose risks to coastal areas, demonstrating the need for resilient coastal management programs.
This document does not contain any meaningful information to summarize in 3 sentences or less. The document consists primarily of repeated letters and symbols with no discernible words, sentences, or themes. It is not possible to determine the high level or essential information from this document.
The document discusses climate change and its causes according to research by Team Norvergence. It finds that the planet's climate has cycled throughout history, but the global temperature has increased 1 degree Celsius in the last 120 years. Human activities like burning fossil fuels and deforestation have raised greenhouse gas levels exponentially compared to natural levels, influencing the climate. The influence of human emissions on climate change is now overwhelming and causing effects like ocean acidification.
The Hydrology of high Arctic Lakes and Climatechris benston
The document discusses how climate change is affecting the phenology of Arctic and Antarctic seabirds. It finds that seabird phenology is influenced by numerous variables, including species, location, sea ice extent, food supply, and temperature. Data presented shows that Emperor Penguin populations decline with decreased sea ice and warmer springs, while Snow Petrel populations increase with more sea ice. In the Arctic, Common Murre and Thick-billed Murre colonies do best with moderate sea surface temperature increases but are negatively impacted by extreme temperature changes. The conclusion is that while climate change is having adverse effects, more long-term research is needed to determine its full impacts due to high variability between species and locations.
Presented by Dr. Shailesh Nayak Key-note Address at Achieving Sustainable Development Goals and Strengthening Science of Climate Resilience, Multi-Stakeholders
This document discusses the risks of continuing economic growth within planetary boundaries and finite resources. It argues that the current economic system is unsustainable and a new paradigm is needed that incorporates environmental and social costs. Specific problems highlighted include climate change, biodiversity loss, pollution, and resource constraints like peak oil. The document calls for reforms in many areas including economic indicators, business models, finance, policy frameworks and education to enable a transition to a sustainable society within planetary boundaries.
A summary of key findings from the IPCC 5th Assessment Report by Anne Hollowed, Alaska Fisheries Science Center, USA
SICCME open session, 17 September 2014, ICES Annual Science Conference, A Coruña, Spain
Climate Change and Water Resources AnalysisMichael DePue
This document summarizes a presentation given on adapting water resources technical analyses to climate change. It discusses several key climate change trends that could impact analyses, including increased precipitation intensities, a longer growing season, and increased drought risk. It outlines how these trends could influence various technical analyses and models used in areas like riverine hydrology, coastal surge modeling, and hydraulic structures. These impacts may include changes to design rainfalls, vegetation changes, erosion impacts, and combined probability issues. The presentation argues technical analyses will need to adapt to incorporate these anticipated climate change impacts.
A safe operating space for humanity (Rockstrom 2009) Lecturas recomendadas S...Ecologistas en Accion
- A new framework is proposed called "planetary boundaries" to define environmental thresholds that should not be crossed to maintain a stable state similar to the Holocene era.
- Nine key Earth system processes are identified that have potential tipping points, and three (climate change, biodiversity loss, and nitrogen cycle interference) have already exceeded their proposed boundaries.
- Crossing certain biophysical thresholds through human activities could have disastrous consequences by pushing the Earth system into a new state less suitable for human development.
This document summarizes research on rainwater harvesting as an adaptation to climate change. It reviews evidence that the Holocene period experienced significant climate variability, including periods of aridity and drought. It hypothesizes that during periods of climate fluctuations, rather than migrating, people may have adapted by modifying their dwelling environments through rainwater harvesting to optimize water availability. The document examines archaeological, historical and paleoclimate records to test this hypothesis and find a correlation between heightened efforts to construct rainwater harvesting structures during abrupt climate fluctuations in response to aridity and drought.
This document summarizes research on spatial and temporal patterns of the algae Pseudo-nitzschia in central California and how they relate to regional oceanography. Major blooms occurred in 1991, 1995, 1998, 2000, and 2002. Blooms often initiated in southern California and appeared to propagate northward. Laboratory experiments showed blooms were generally nitrogen limited rather than limited by silicon or iron. Large-scale blooms are inconsistent with local oceanographic drivers and may be influenced more by latitudinal changes in regional conditions. Monitoring programs have difficulty predicting blooms due to thin subsurface layers of algae that are difficult to detect.
This document contains descriptions of various topics related to the environment and Earth sciences. It provides the topic name, a brief description of the topic, and assigns it to a panel. Some of the topics covered include atmospheric kinetics, behavioural ecology, biogeochemical cycles, boundary layer meteorology, climate and climate change, community ecology, conservation ecology, earth engineering, and earth resources.
Planning For Climate Change In The Technical Analysis 6 9 09Michael DePue
The document discusses how climate change trends should be incorporated into floodplain mapping and flood control project planning. It summarizes reports on topics like increased precipitation and sea level rise. It recommends considering a range of climate change scenarios in technical analyses, like higher sea levels and more intense storms. Adaptation strategies may include revised flood maps, upgraded infrastructure, and modified planning guidelines.
Climate is the statistics of weather over long periods of time, while climate change refers to significant long-term shifts in weather patterns. The document discusses several lines of evidence for rapid climate change, including rising global temperatures and CO2 levels from ice core data. It also outlines theories for what causes climate change such as changes in Earth's orbit, the carbon dioxide level in the atmosphere, and variations in solar activity. The impacts of climate change include rising sea levels, stronger extreme weather events, and threatened plant and animal species.
- A new framework is proposed called "planetary boundaries" to define environmental thresholds that should not be crossed to maintain a stable state similar to the current Holocene period that has enabled human civilization.
- Crossing certain biophysical boundaries could have disastrous consequences by pushing the Earth system into a new state less suitable for human development.
- Three key boundaries - climate change, biodiversity loss, and interference with the nitrogen cycle - have already been exceeded according to the analysis, indicating the environment is already being threatened by human activity.
Global warming is part of natural climate cycles according to the document. It argues that the Earth's climate is primarily influenced by solar activity and fluctuations in the sun's irradiance. The document provides several lines of evidence from historical temperature and greenhouse gas records, as well as studies on plankton and agriculture, to support its view that global warming poses no significant risks and may provide economic benefits from increased growing seasons and rainfall. However, it does not consider the potential long-term consequences of rising sea levels or more severe storms.
Land use-cover-trends-climate-variability-nexus-in-the-njoro-river-catchmentoircjournals
Anthropogenic activities have consequences on the land use/cover trends in the watershed and subsequently on the hydrological characteristics of rivers through intertwine of climate variability. The interplay between land use changes and climate variability are seen as contributory causes of catchment degradation in Kenya. The land use/cover changes increase impervious ground surfaces, decrease infiltration rate and increase runoff rate thereby affecting the hydrological characteristics of rivers. This study considers the interactions between climate variability and land use/cover changes in the river Njoro catchment in Kenya. The River Njoro drains into the lake Nakuru basin one of the Great Rift Valley Lakes in Kenya. The objectives of the study were: To evaluate the land-use and land cover patterns and changes in Njoro River catchment between 1996 and 2016, analyze the temperature and rainfall variations between 1996 and 2016 and compare the land use/cover changes with the variation in the rainfall and temperature. Landsat images and secondary data on water quality parameters were used in this study. The study showed that there was significant variation in rainfall and temperature trends in the Njoro river catchment and therefore the dynamics of land use/land cover in the river Njoro would be more attributed to anthropogenic activities than climate variability.
The Earth is a complex system consisting of four major interacting spheres: the geosphere, hydrosphere, atmosphere, and biosphere. The geosphere includes the solid Earth and its interior. The hydrosphere contains all of Earth's water. The atmosphere is the gaseous envelope surrounding the planet. The biosphere comprises all living organisms and organic matter. These spheres constantly interact through biogeochemical cycles and energy exchanges. For example, volcanoes can emit gases into the atmosphere while damaging forests and human settlements.
There are 9 planetary boundaries related to climate change, ocean acidification, chemical pollution, nitrogen and phosphorus loading, freshwater withdrawals, land conversion, biodiversity loss, air pollution and ozone layer depletion. Exceeding these boundaries risks irreversible environmental changes. Currently, the boundaries for climate change and biosphere integrity related to biodiversity loss have already been exceeded due to human activities like burning fossil fuels, large scale agriculture and deforestation. Urgent global cooperation is needed to transition systems and policies to prioritize environmental sustainability over unlimited economic growth to avoid catastrophic consequences.
Climate Change and Maritime Sector Essay Sampleessayprime
Climate change is affecting the maritime sector in several ways. Rising sea levels and changes in erosion and sedimentation patterns are impacting ports and shipping channels. Melting polar ice caps are opening new shipping routes but also increasing risks in polar regions for inadequately prepared vessels. Climate change is also negatively impacting marine ecosystems and fish stocks, posing challenges for fisheries managers and the fishing industry. While some new opportunities may arise for the maritime sector through activities like Arctic shipping lanes and mineral exploitation, the sector will also face risks and need to make infrastructure changes to adapt.
The document discusses how phytoplankton play a key role in the biological carbon pump by transferring carbon from the atmosphere to the oceans. It explains that rising CO2 levels and climate change may impact phytoplankton physiology, community structure, and size, which could influence the efficiency of the biological carbon pump and the ocean's ability to absorb carbon long-term. The review aims to explore how predicted temperature increases and changes to the carbonate system could affect phytoplankton traits in order to understand implications for the biological carbon pump and future carbon sequestration in the oceans.
This document discusses climate change adaptation efforts for coastal protection and management in India. It notes that about 20-25% of India's population lives within 50 km of its long coastline, which is affected by erosion. The Asian Development Bank is supporting India's Sustainable Coastal Protection and Management Investment Program to develop scientific coastal management approaches. This includes building offshore artificial reefs and berms to stabilize coastlines. Shoreline management plans were also created. Technical assistance funded guidelines for climate change adaptation and established a coastal information system. The impacts of climate change like sea level rise pose risks to coastal areas, demonstrating the need for resilient coastal management programs.
This document does not contain any meaningful information to summarize in 3 sentences or less. The document consists primarily of repeated letters and symbols with no discernible words, sentences, or themes. It is not possible to determine the high level or essential information from this document.
Noor Mohammad Sarker has over 10 years of experience working in quality control and laboratory roles for ITS Labtest Bangladesh Ltd. He currently holds the position of Deputy Lab Manager and is responsible for overall laboratory operations, training, quality checks, method validation, customer queries, and monitoring laboratory staff performance. Previously he has held several roles of increasing responsibility at ITS Labtest Bangladesh including Assistant Lab Manager, Assistant Lab Supervisor, and Laboratory Technician. He also has a M.Sc. in Chemistry from Shahjalal University of Science & Technology.
Este documento presenta información sobre la nanotecnología. Define la nanotecnología como el estudio y desarrollo de sistemas a escala nanométrica, que es una mil millonésima parte de un metro. Explica que involucra ciencias como química, física y biología molecular. Finalmente, discute algunas aplicaciones actuales y futuras de la nanotecnología, incluyendo envases de alimentos, detección y tratamiento de cáncer, y mejoras en agricultura, energía y medio ambiente.
Narayan Hegde has over 25 years of experience in IT services, project management, engineering project execution, and operations management. He has expertise in healthcare IT, health insurance BPO, manufacturing, and project engineering domains. Currently he is the Deputy General Manager of Operations at HGSL, managing health insurance claims services for a US customer, with responsibilities including P&L, service delivery across locations, and account management. He has extensive experience implementing hospital information systems and clinical information systems in Asia Pacific markets.
This document describes a framework for 2D pose estimation using active shape models and learned entropy field approximations. A dataset of manually annotated poses was created from NBA footage to train the models. Active shape models use principal component analysis to represent poses as a linear combination of modes of variation learned from the training data. To evaluate pose likelihood, image entropy is proposed as a texture similarity measure and regression is used to learn a function mapping poses to entropy fields, which can be compared to the image entropy. Current results are presented and future work to improve and speed up the approach is discussed.
Duke Imports, Inc. sells high-quality bedding products including mink blankets, embroidered sheet sets with over 100 designs, and 6 piece sheet sets in a variety of thread counts. They invite customers to see their advertisement on another page of the publication or visit their website at www.DukeImports.com and call 260-665-1100 for more information.
Grygoriy Pavlioti has over 5 years of experience in software testing and has worked as a QA Trainer, Manual/Automation Tester, and QA Engineer. He has strong knowledge of software testing concepts and experience creating test cases, executing test plans, reporting bugs, and automating test workflows with tools like Selenium. He is experienced in Agile methodologies and communicating with customers.
Arxivar per Coopfidi. Gestione dei processi approvativi tramite workflowARXivar
Coopfidi è una società consortile di garanzia collettiva fidi costituita da CNA Roma e Lazio, Confartigianato Roma e ACAI, presente su tutte le province laziali con 25 filiali sul territorio ed oltre 15mila imprese associate.
Coopfidi ha scelto ARXivar per digitalizzare l’iter di ricezione, validazione e approvazione delle pratiche di finanziamento.
Grazie ad ARXivar l'azienda è riuscita a ridurre drasticamente i tempi necessari all’evasione delle pratiche e, soprattutto, ha dimezzato i tempi per l' erogazione del finanziamento.
Passando da una media di 60 a 12 giorni di lavorazione per pratica.
Un risultato che ha permesso di aumentare il numero di pratiche gestite, e soprattutto, di offrire un servizio migliore ai clienti.
El documento describe las diferencias entre e-commerce, e-business y e-government. E-commerce se refiere al comercio electrónico entre empresas y consumidores, mientras que e-business incluye procesos internos como producción y finanzas. E-government implica la prestación de servicios gubernamentales a ciudadanos a través de canales electrónicos.
This document provides an overview of the impacts of climate change on biodiversity based on a report from the Second Ad Hoc Technical Expert Group. It discusses observed and projected impacts including changes in species distributions, timing of life cycles, ecosystem composition and services. Climate change threatens biodiversity through increasing temperatures, altering carbon cycles and increasing extreme weather events. Risk assessment tools are needed to identify vulnerable species and ecosystems to prioritize adaptation activities. Economic valuation of ecosystem services and incentives should be considered to support adaptation and not negatively impact biodiversity conservation.
Climate change is one of the primary factors contributing to the loss of biodiversity worldwide. The purpose of this review paper was to give serious thought about the present and future impacts of climate change on biodiversity, even though we are not aware of its synergistic effects on biological populations. In order to fully understand the biota's reactions to these climatic
changes, we also concentrated on how these changes impact their phenology and physiology. This review article's subjects are
covered in a non-random order to make it easier for readers to understand the connections between biodiversity and climate
change. We also discussed about how 1.1°C of global warming brought about by human activity has altered the Earth's climate
in ways never seen before and negatively impacted human health. We covered how to safeguard our biota by implementing practical conservation strategies at the end of this review article in order to reduce the effects of climate change on it. We hope that one day, because research on climate change and biodiversity protection is interdisciplinary and spans many different scientific areas, we will be able to address all these concerns and preserve our biota from their terrible consequences.
The document discusses the relationship between climate change and the ocean. It notes that the ocean absorbs over 30% of carbon dioxide emissions, which is causing the ocean to warm and become more acidic. This is negatively impacting ocean ecosystems and species. Species are migrating to new areas as the climate changes, which could create international issues. Addressing climate change will require significant reductions in greenhouse gas emissions globally through policies like the Paris Agreement. Protecting coastal ecosystems like mangroves and seagrasses can also help mitigate climate change by storing carbon.
Christopher DG. Harley and Williams, S.L. (2006) examined the impacts of climate change on coastal marine systems. They found that changes in ocean circulation and biology have more significant impacts on organism survival than changes in surface temperature alone. Ocean circulation controls larval transport and population dynamics. Substantial efforts are needed to preserve marine systems and improve predictive models of climate change responses. Considering interactions between climate change and human activities will help conserve living marine ecosystems.
Climate change is a significant change in weather patterns over long periods of time that can be caused by both natural factors and human activities like greenhouse gas emissions. Scientists study climate change by analyzing physical evidence from various climate proxies like ice cores, sediment records, and historical documents to understand past climates and make projections about future climate change. Global warming due to increased greenhouse gases is causing sea levels to rise through thermal expansion of the oceans and melting of glaciers and ice sheets, threatening coastal areas with flooding and erosion.
Global climate change is affecting coastal environments in several ways:
1) Sea-level rise is leading to inundation and erosion of coastal areas and saline intrusion into waterways.
2) Low-lying coastal deltas, floodplains, and estuaries are particularly vulnerable to sea-level rise.
3) Changes in ocean currents are also impacting coastal environments.
Running Head CLIMATE CHANGE 1CLIMATE CHANGE 1CLIMAT.docxjoellemurphey
Running Head: CLIMATE CHANGE 1
CLIMATE CHANGE 1
CLIMATE CHANGE
Student’s Name
University Affiliation
Climate Change
So there has been an temperature increase on the Earth b 1 degree Farenheit with the past two centuries. Many oblivious persosn would wonder what the big deal is. The one degree being mentioned may appear negligible, but it is actually an extraordinary event in the planet’s history. The preserved and studied Earth’s climate records indicate that the average global temperature has been stable for long periods of time. Furthermore, slight changes in the temperature result in major alterations in the environment.
According to scientific estimations, the environment as we now know it will not be the same in the next 10 years. We should also not forget that the environment is what we depend on fully, not the other way round. As it is, the initiatives to mitigate climate change should first begin with the actions of each and every one at a personal level. Climate change is no longer considered an emerging concern but a lurking catastrophe. This paper seeks to enlighten the reader on climate change, a Geoscience issue that has been the cause of massive research in its various aspects. The paper gains insight on the topic in the most holistic manner possible.
According to other professionals in the field of geology, climate change has been termed as a significant, progressive and lasting alteration in weather’s statistical patterns, noted for periods that range from a decade to millions of ages. Basically, climate change has the potential of being the change in the weather’s average condition or its distribution. The main means that have been used by scientists in understanding the condition’s plight are theoretical and observational. More recently however, there have been improved methods of scrutinizing the situation, through the use of instrumental recordings. Nonetheless, the universally accepted definition of climate change is; the change in climate system’s statistical properties after being considered for a long period of time, where the causes are not regarded.
As a constituent issue, many are unable to distinguish climate and global warming (Giddens, 2009). However, the fault cannot be entirely placed on them as the two are indeed deeply intertwined. I would therefore use this relationship between the two issues to approach both at once. It is common knowledge that climate change is one of the realest threats that our prosperity faces; this being in accordance to a tenfold of research conducted by numerous scientists. Carbon dioxide is among the pollutant gases that contribute to the deterioration of the ozone layer as well as bringing about the greenhouse effect (McKrecher, 2010). Various anthropogenic activities such as deforestation have also been noted as major causes of the progressively increasing climate change. Having stated that, it becomes clear that climate change comes about due to global ...
The document discusses evidence that human activity is causing climate change through the emission of greenhouse gases. It describes how scientific analysis of ice cores from Antarctica and Greenland reveal that climate change is occurring and that we are heading towards significant changes to the climate. While some argue that climate change is a natural phenomenon, the evidence from feedback mechanisms like chemical weathering of CO2 indicates that human emissions are disrupting these systems and accelerating climate change. The document urges that despite skepticism, the scientific evidence needs to be addressed to mitigate the risks of climate change.
Eco1.Do you think it is appropriate that the consumer bears part.docxjack60216
Eco
1.Do you think it is appropriate that the consumer bears part of the burden of pollution fees in the form of higher prices? Why or why not?
2.In the U.S., landowners have the mineral rights to all minerals that might be found under their property (e.g, oil and natural gas). In most European countries, the government, not the property owner, has the rights to any minerals found in the ground. Fracking occurs in several U.S. states, but remains unpopular in Europe. If national governments in other nations agreed to share the profits from fracking with the landowners on whose property the drilling takes place, how might that change attitudes toward the fracking process?
3.Do you think we are a throwaway society? Are your attitudes towards consumption of goods the same as your parents? Your grandparents? (Think of how goods have changed over the years.)
4.A few years ago we became aware that disposable diapers were a major item being put into U.S. landfills. Some communities discussed banning disposable diapers from their landfills. There were protests from parents groups whose members found disposable much more convenient than cloth diapers. Rationally evaluate this policy from both the community environmentalists and the parents groups’ viewpoints.
5.Should income in the U.S. be distributed equally? If not, should there be at least a greater degree of equality than we presently have? What are the advantages and disadvantages of greater equality?
6.Which do you feel is more effective in reducing poverty: government poverty programs or economic growth of a nation? How do private charities fit in? Are you an economic conservative or economic liberal when it comes to addressing poverty?
O R I G I N A L P A P E R
Wetlands and global climate change: the role of wetland
restoration in a changing world
Kevin L. Erwin
Received: 15 April 2008 / Accepted: 24 September 2008 / Published online: 7 November 2008
� Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2008
Abstract Global climate change is recognized as a
threat to species survival and the health of natural
systems. Scientists worldwide are looking at the
ecological and hydrological impacts resulting from
climate change. Climate change will make future
efforts to restore and manage wetlands more com-
plex. Wetland systems are vulnerable to changes in
quantity and quality of their water supply, and it is
expected that climate change will have a pronounced
effect on wetlands through alterations in hydrological
regimes with great global variability. Wetland habitat
responses to climate change and the implications for
restoration will be realized differently on a regional
and mega-watershed level, making it important to
recognize that specific restoration and management
plans will require examination by habitat. Flood-
plains, mangroves, seagrasses, saltmarshes, arctic
wetlands, peatlands, freshwater marshes and forests
are very diverse habitats, with different str ...
Climate change will affect human health in many ways. Rising temperatures are expected to increase heat-related deaths and illness, especially among elderly populations. More severe extreme weather events like floods and storms will also cause more injuries and deaths as well as spread infectious diseases. Changes in climate patterns may alter the ranges of some vector-borne diseases, increasing transmission in new areas. Over time, climate change could disrupt global food production and damage ecosystems, leading to widespread health problems. While some regions may see reduced winter mortality, the overall health impacts of climate change are expected to be overwhelmingly negative.
Climate change is caused by a small 1 degree Fahrenheit increase in average global temperature over the past century. This minor change has had major environmental impacts like longer droughts and more intense hurricanes. The main cause is greenhouse gas emissions, particularly from the burning of fossil fuels which increased atmospheric CO2 levels. While volcanoes and natural processes emit some CO2, human outputs dwarf these natural contributions and are the primary driver of current climate change. Effects include worsening weather, sea level rise, and threats to water supplies. Solutions require transitioning to renewable energy and adapting to the changes already occurring.
There is scientific consensus that rising greenhouse gas emissions from human activity will cause global warming and other climate changes. The IPCC projects an increase in average global temperatures by 2100 of 1.4-5.8°C. Climate change will affect human health in many ways, both beneficial and adverse. Research has focused on impacts of extreme heat, infectious diseases, and food security, but climate change may also disrupt societies and economies in ways that indirectly impact health. While some effects are already apparent, such as heat waves increasing mortality, estimating future health impacts involves uncertainty. Evidence of health risks will strengthen arguments for policies to reduce emissions and adapt to climate change impacts.
This document discusses various strategies for mitigating climate change. It begins with background on climate change and its impacts. It then discusses strategies such as stabilizing greenhouse gas concentrations; transitioning to renewable energy and low-carbon sources; carbon capture and storage; reducing non-CO2 greenhouse gases; and governmental policies like emissions targets and the Kyoto Protocol. The strategies aim to limit global warming by reducing human emissions and enhancing natural carbon sinks.
Changing Ocean, Marine Ecosystems, and Dependent Communities ipcc-media
The document discusses how the oceans are warming due to climate change, which is causing deoxygenation and changes to nutrient ratios that shape marine ecosystems. These changes impact fish stocks, fisheries revenue, and the nutrition and well-being of communities that depend on seafood. Pacific small island developing states are particularly vulnerable to the consequences of climate change for their economies and reefs are at high risk in the western Pacific region. The outline presented at the end indicates the document will provide an executive summary and discuss changing oceans and biodiversity, ecosystem services and human well-being, solutions and governance, and synthesize the information.
The first article defines climate change as changes in climate patterns attributed to increased greenhouse gases like carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. One scientist, Mark Lynes, warns that 3 degrees of warming could melt glaciers and dry out the Amazon rainforest.
The second article describes climate change as a long-term shift in weather patterns over decades or longer. Scientists say global warming must be limited to 2 degrees Celsius to avoid irreversible damage.
The third article discusses how novel food production strategies like cell-based foods could ensure future food security for Colombia as climate change impacts intensify. It also notes increased atmospheric CO2 levels since pre-industrial times.
Climate change threatens biodiversity in several ways. Rising global temperatures cause shifts in species' habitats and ranges, disrupting ecosystems. Polar regions are especially at risk, as melting ice threatens animals like polar bears. In the oceans, warming and acidification endanger coral reefs and plankton. Loss of biodiversity then undermines ecosystem services like pollination and water purification. International data shows an increasing number of threatened species as climate change accelerates extinction rates. Maintaining biodiversity can help buffer against climate impacts and support ecosystem adaptation.
Climate The third component of human carrying capacity29 Janu.docxclarebernice
Climate: The third component of human carrying capacity
29 January 2018
ECS 111
Dr. Olson
Pre-Springtime in Paris
The warmest year (again)
Here we are in 2017
2017 Temperatures
https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/temp-and-precip/global-maps/201713#global-maps-select
2017 Precipitation
In Denial or Lack of Political Will?
What is the danger?
A brief history of our atmosphere
Earth formed about 4.5 billion years ago.
4 billion yrs ago, atmosphere likely N2, H2O, CO2, CH4
~ 3.5 billion yrs ago: first life appears in the ocean
Subsequent photosynthesis produces O2
Early O2 used to oxidize rock & react with volcanic gases
By 1 billion years ago, O2 accumulating in atmosphere
Garrison (2002)
The simple model does well, but things aren’t quite that simple. The albedo varies from near 0.05 (oceans) to near 1 (fresh snow). The real picture is quite complicated (especially by clouds).
Greenhouse Effect
With no atmosphere Earth’s surface temperature = -18°C
= σTe4
Ts = Te = 255 K (-18°C)
Ts = 288 K (15°C, 59° F)
= σTa4 = σTe4
atmosphere Ta =Te
σTS4
σTa4
With atmosphere (GHGs), Earth’s temperature = 15° C
terrestrial
solar
240 W/m2
14
Not all areas of a sphere receive the same energy / unit area
15
Distribution of global heating and cooling. Incoming solar radiation versus infrared (heat) outgoing radiation. Both the atmosphere and ocean serve to redistribute heat around the planet.
16
Global wind systems: Again.
Garrison (2002)
Source: http://eesc.columbia.edu/courses/ees/slides/
climate/analema.gif
Not all the earth receives the same amount of solar radiation.
The most is received at the equator; the least at the poles.
This unequal distribution of energy drives the climate.
Both the atmosphere and ocean serve to redistribute heat around the planet.
Weather averaged over months, seasons or longer is climate.
Given the large seasonal and spatial fluctuations, it is easier to compare different years by looking at anomalies, that is differences compared to average temperatures for some long period, say 1971-2000.
ITCZ
Global Ocean Temperatures
Temperate westerlies
Trade wind systems
Monsoons
Low pressure,
ascending air
High pressure,
descending air
High pressure,
descending air
The ITCZ is a dynamic feature that moves annually with the changing seasons.
Nat. Geographic
Can the Green Revolution hold?
Economist 1 August 2015
Peter Webster’s Monsoons
How Does Climate Set Life’s Patterns
Where are the major biomes that are found currently on Earth?
How do the ecosystems in these biomes function?
What are the typical fauna (animals) and flora (plants) that define these biomes.
All the Earth’s Terrestrial Biomes
How are these biomes defined?
Endemic species (organisms that live there).
Physical attributes of the environment: climate, nutrient fluxes, soils….
30
How to define a biome?
Making a spe ...
1. The document discusses the impacts of global climate change on human health. It summarizes the findings of the IPCC working groups on observed and projected impacts of climate change through different pathways.
2. Key observed impacts include rising sea levels, changes in precipitation patterns, and effects on ecosystems. Projected health impacts include increased deaths from heat waves, changing disease vectors, and threats to food security.
3. The document outlines the natural and human causes of climate change and examines the IPCC emissions scenarios for projecting future impacts. Understanding climate change drivers and impacts is important for developing response strategies to protect human health.
Miriam Kastner: Her findings on METHANE HYDRATES in Ocean Acidification Summ...www.thiiink.com
Atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) levels are rising as a result of human activities, such as fossil fuel burning, and are increasing the acidity of seawater. This process is known as ocean acidi cation. Historically, the ocean has absorbed approximately 30% of all CO2 released into the atmosphere
by humans since the start of the industrial revolution, resulting in a 26% increase in the acidity of the ocean1.
Ocean acidi cation causes ecosystems and marine biodiversity to change. It has the potential to affect food security and it limits the capacity of the ocean to absorb CO2 from human emissions. The economic impact of ocean acidi cation could be substantial.
Reducing CO2 emissions is the only way to minimise long-term, large-scale risks.
Similar to impactos del cambio climatico en ecosistemas costeros (20)
Or: Beyond linear.
Abstract: Equivariant neural networks are neural networks that incorporate symmetries. The nonlinear activation functions in these networks result in interesting nonlinear equivariant maps between simple representations, and motivate the key player of this talk: piecewise linear representation theory.
Disclaimer: No one is perfect, so please mind that there might be mistakes and typos.
dtubbenhauer@gmail.com
Corrected slides: dtubbenhauer.com/talks.html
ESPP presentation to EU Waste Water Network, 4th June 2024 “EU policies driving nutrient removal and recycling
and the revised UWWTD (Urban Waste Water Treatment Directive)”
PPT on Direct Seeded Rice presented at the three-day 'Training and Validation Workshop on Modules of Climate Smart Agriculture (CSA) Technologies in South Asia' workshop on April 22, 2024.
The technology uses reclaimed CO₂ as the dyeing medium in a closed loop process. When pressurized, CO₂ becomes supercritical (SC-CO₂). In this state CO₂ has a very high solvent power, allowing the dye to dissolve easily.
The debris of the ‘last major merger’ is dynamically youngSérgio Sacani
The Milky Way’s (MW) inner stellar halo contains an [Fe/H]-rich component with highly eccentric orbits, often referred to as the
‘last major merger.’ Hypotheses for the origin of this component include Gaia-Sausage/Enceladus (GSE), where the progenitor
collided with the MW proto-disc 8–11 Gyr ago, and the Virgo Radial Merger (VRM), where the progenitor collided with the
MW disc within the last 3 Gyr. These two scenarios make different predictions about observable structure in local phase space,
because the morphology of debris depends on how long it has had to phase mix. The recently identified phase-space folds in Gaia
DR3 have positive caustic velocities, making them fundamentally different than the phase-mixed chevrons found in simulations
at late times. Roughly 20 per cent of the stars in the prograde local stellar halo are associated with the observed caustics. Based
on a simple phase-mixing model, the observed number of caustics are consistent with a merger that occurred 1–2 Gyr ago.
We also compare the observed phase-space distribution to FIRE-2 Latte simulations of GSE-like mergers, using a quantitative
measurement of phase mixing (2D causticality). The observed local phase-space distribution best matches the simulated data
1–2 Gyr after collision, and certainly not later than 3 Gyr. This is further evidence that the progenitor of the ‘last major merger’
did not collide with the MW proto-disc at early times, as is thought for the GSE, but instead collided with the MW disc within
the last few Gyr, consistent with the body of work surrounding the VRM.
ESA/ACT Science Coffee: Diego Blas - Gravitational wave detection with orbita...Advanced-Concepts-Team
Presentation in the Science Coffee of the Advanced Concepts Team of the European Space Agency on the 07.06.2024.
Speaker: Diego Blas (IFAE/ICREA)
Title: Gravitational wave detection with orbital motion of Moon and artificial
Abstract:
In this talk I will describe some recent ideas to find gravitational waves from supermassive black holes or of primordial origin by studying their secular effect on the orbital motion of the Moon or satellites that are laser ranged.
Authoring a personal GPT for your research and practice: How we created the Q...Leonel Morgado
Thematic analysis in qualitative research is a time-consuming and systematic task, typically done using teams. Team members must ground their activities on common understandings of the major concepts underlying the thematic analysis, and define criteria for its development. However, conceptual misunderstandings, equivocations, and lack of adherence to criteria are challenges to the quality and speed of this process. Given the distributed and uncertain nature of this process, we wondered if the tasks in thematic analysis could be supported by readily available artificial intelligence chatbots. Our early efforts point to potential benefits: not just saving time in the coding process but better adherence to criteria and grounding, by increasing triangulation between humans and artificial intelligence. This tutorial will provide a description and demonstration of the process we followed, as two academic researchers, to develop a custom ChatGPT to assist with qualitative coding in the thematic data analysis process of immersive learning accounts in a survey of the academic literature: QUAL-E Immersive Learning Thematic Analysis Helper. In the hands-on time, participants will try out QUAL-E and develop their ideas for their own qualitative coding ChatGPT. Participants that have the paid ChatGPT Plus subscription can create a draft of their assistants. The organizers will provide course materials and slide deck that participants will be able to utilize to continue development of their custom GPT. The paid subscription to ChatGPT Plus is not required to participate in this workshop, just for trying out personal GPTs during it.
EWOCS-I: The catalog of X-ray sources in Westerlund 1 from the Extended Weste...Sérgio Sacani
Context. With a mass exceeding several 104 M⊙ and a rich and dense population of massive stars, supermassive young star clusters
represent the most massive star-forming environment that is dominated by the feedback from massive stars and gravitational interactions
among stars.
Aims. In this paper we present the Extended Westerlund 1 and 2 Open Clusters Survey (EWOCS) project, which aims to investigate
the influence of the starburst environment on the formation of stars and planets, and on the evolution of both low and high mass stars.
The primary targets of this project are Westerlund 1 and 2, the closest supermassive star clusters to the Sun.
Methods. The project is based primarily on recent observations conducted with the Chandra and JWST observatories. Specifically,
the Chandra survey of Westerlund 1 consists of 36 new ACIS-I observations, nearly co-pointed, for a total exposure time of 1 Msec.
Additionally, we included 8 archival Chandra/ACIS-S observations. This paper presents the resulting catalog of X-ray sources within
and around Westerlund 1. Sources were detected by combining various existing methods, and photon extraction and source validation
were carried out using the ACIS-Extract software.
Results. The EWOCS X-ray catalog comprises 5963 validated sources out of the 9420 initially provided to ACIS-Extract, reaching a
photon flux threshold of approximately 2 × 10−8 photons cm−2
s
−1
. The X-ray sources exhibit a highly concentrated spatial distribution,
with 1075 sources located within the central 1 arcmin. We have successfully detected X-ray emissions from 126 out of the 166 known
massive stars of the cluster, and we have collected over 71 000 photons from the magnetar CXO J164710.20-455217.
EWOCS-I: The catalog of X-ray sources in Westerlund 1 from the Extended Weste...
impactos del cambio climatico en ecosistemas costeros
1. REVIEWS AND
SYNTHESES The impacts of climate change in coastal marine
systems
Christopher D. G. Harley,1,2
*
A. Randall Hughes,3
Kristin M.
Hultgren,3
Benjamin G. Miner,1
Cascade J. B. Sorte,1
Carol S.
Thornber,3,4
Laura F. Rodriguez,3
Lars Tomanek3,5
and Susan
L. Williams1
1
Bodega Marine Laboratory,
University of California-Davis,
Bodega Bay, CA 94923, USA
2
Department of Zoology,
University of British Columbia,
Vancouver, BC, Canada V6T 1Z4
3
University of California, Davis,
CA 95616, USA
4
University of Rhode Island,
Kingston, RI 02881, USA
5
California Polytechnic State
University, San Luis Obispo,
CA 93407-0401, USA
*Correspondence: E-mail:
harley@zoology.ubc.ca
Abstract
Anthropogenically induced global climate change has profound implications for marine
ecosystems and the economic and social systems that depend upon them. The
relationship between temperature and individual performance is reasonably well
understood, and much climate-related research has focused on potential shifts in
distribution and abundance driven directly by temperature. However, recent work has
revealed that both abiotic changes and biological responses in the ocean will be
substantially more complex. For example, changes in ocean chemistry may be more
important than changes in temperature for the performance and survival of many
organisms. Ocean circulation, which drives larval transport, will also change, with
important consequences for population dynamics. Furthermore, climatic impacts on one
or a few Ôleverage speciesÕ may result in sweeping community-level changes. Finally,
synergistic effects between climate and other anthropogenic variables, particularly fishing
pressure, will likely exacerbate climate-induced changes. Efforts to manage and conserve
living marine systems in the face of climate change will require improvements to the
existing predictive framework. Key directions for future research include identifying key
demographic transitions that influence population dynamics, predicting changes in the
community-level impacts of ecologically dominant species, incorporating populationsÕ
ability to evolve (adapt), and understanding the scales over which climate will change and
living systems will respond.
Keywords
Anthropogenic climate change, carbon dioxide (CO2), coastal oceanography, community
structure, distributional shifts, marine ecosystems, ocean pH, population dynamics,
synergistic effects, temperature.
Ecology Letters (2006) 9: 228–241
I N T R O DU C T I O N
Coastal marine systems are among the most ecologically and
socio-economically vital on the planet. Marine habitats from
the intertidal zone out to the continental shelf break are
estimated to provide over US$14 trillion worth of ecosys-
tem goods (e.g. food and raw materials) and services (e.g.
disturbance regulation and nutrient cycling) per year, or
c. 43% of the global total (Costanza et al. 1997). However,
there is a strong scientific consensus that coastal marine
ecosystems, along with the goods and services they provide,
are threatened by anthropogenic global climate change
(IPCC 2001). Recent climatic trends, which are only a
fraction of the magnitude of predicted changes in the
coming centuries, have already triggered significant
responses in the Earth’s biota (IPCC 2001). As these
changes continue, we risk serious degradation of marine
ecosystems, with far-reaching consequences for human
health and welfare.
Given their global importance, coastal marine environ-
ments are a major focus of concern regarding the potential
impacts of anthropogenic climate change. A pair of seminal
reviews in the early 1990s (Fields et al. 1993; Lubchenco
et al. 1993) summarized the then-current understanding of
climate change impacts on marine systems. In both cases,
the authors focused on the effects of rising temperatures
on organismal- and to a lesser extent population-level
processes, and they used natural cycles such as the El
Nin˜o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Pleistocene–
Holocene transition as proxies for future change. The basic
Ecology Letters, (2006) 9: 228–241 doi: 10.1111/j.1461-0248.2005.00871.x
Ó 2006 Blackwell Publishing Ltd/CNRS
2. predictions can be summarized as follows: as temperature
rises in the future, the distribution and abundance of species
will shift according to their thermal tolerance and ability to
adapt.
Since 1993, the literature on climate change impacts in
marine systems has grown exponentially (Fig. 1a). Perhaps
not surprisingly, the topics emphasized in the early 1990s
continue to dominate the literature; most climate-related
research in the marine environment focuses on temperature
(Fig. 1b), and most work is conducted at the level of
individual organisms (Fig. 1c). To some degree, this focus is
entirely appropriate; many recent studies do indeed support
the predictions of Fields et al. (1993) and Lubchenco et al.
(1993). However, a growing body of work is demonstrating
that these simplistic relationships between temperature and
the biota are inadequate in predicting many important
aspects of future biological change. Patterns of temperature
change in space and time, and biological responses to them,
are not as straightforward as once envisioned. More
importantly, temperature is only one of a suite of potentially
interacting climatic variables that will drive future ecological
change in marine systems. Finally, studies conducted on
population- and community-level processes suggest that
climatic impacts on individual organisms do not necessarily
translate directly into changes in distribution and abundance.
Here, we review recent advances in our understanding of
the physical and chemical nature of climate change in coastal
oceans. Next, we examine the likely ecological responses to
climate change at two basic levels. We first address the
proximate effects of environmental change, including
impacts on individuals, populations and communities. We
then consider the broader ecological responses that will
emerge from these proximal impacts; emergent responses
include alterations in biologically and socio-economically
important patterns and processes ranging from primary
productivity to biogeography to evolution. Finally, we
highlight areas in which information is lacking, in hopes
that continuing research efforts will fill these gaps and thus
improve our ability to predict and mitigate the effects of
climate change. If we aim to successfully manage and
conserve coastal marine species and habitats, improving our
predictive power is imperative.
A B I O T I C CH A N G E I N C O A S T A L MA R I NE
E NV I R O N M E N T S
The earth’s climate system varies naturally across a range of
temporal scales, including seasonal cycles, inter-annual
patterns such as the ENSO, inter-decadal cycles such as
the North Atlantic and Pacific Decadal oscillations, and
multimillenial-scale changes such as glacial to inter-glacial
transitions. This natural variability is reflected in the
evolutionary adaptations of species and large-scale patterns
of biogeography. Over the past several centuries, human
activities have become an additional, important component
to the climate system (Fig. 2). Anthropogenic climatic
forcing is mediated primarily by greenhouse gas (predomin-
antly CO2) emissions. Together, elevated CO2 and the
resultant increases in global mean temperature will result in a
cascade of physical and chemical changes in marine systems.
Physically driven changes
Atmospheric greenhouse gases trap some of the heat energy
that would otherwise re-radiate to space, helping to warm
the planet. Owing in large part to increasing greenhouse gas
concentrations, global air and sea surface temperatures have
risen in the past century by 0.4–0.8 °C (IPCC 2001). These
warming trends are expected to accelerate in the current
century (IPCC 2001), with implications for several addi-
tional abiotic variables. For example, as a result of warming
seawater, the world oceans are expanding. Coupled with
freshwater input from ice-melt, thermal expansion of the
oceans is causing sea level to rise at c. 2 mm year)1
(IPCC
2001). Because warming trends will be stronger over
continental interiors than over oceans, the atmospheric
0
1
2
3
4
1990
1995
2000
2005
Percentageofallpublications
Individual
Population
Community
Higher-level
0
20
40
60
80
Percentageofclimatepublications
Temperature
UVradiation
Nutrientsupply
Carbondioxide
Climateindex
Storminess
Circulation
pH
Sealevelrise
0
20
40
60
80
Percentageofclimatepublications
(a) (b) (c)
Figure 1 Climate-related publication trends
in the marine ecology literature (see Appen-
dix 1 for methodological details). (a) The
rate of publication on marine climate
change, expressed as a percent of the entire
marine ecological literature. (b) Trends in the
abiotic variables considered. (c) Trends in
the level of biological response considered.
Because some papers considered multiple
variables or levels, the bars in b and c sum to
more than 100%.
Climate change in coastal marine systems 229
Ó 2006 Blackwell Publishing Ltd/CNRS
3. pressure gradient, and thus wind fields, along ocean margins
will intensify. Stronger wind fields might lead to enhanced
upwelling in eastern boundary currents (Bakun 1990), which
could increase nutrient availability at the surface. Paleocli-
matic data suggest that upwelling in the California current
system is positively correlated with temperature over
millennial timescales (Pisias et al. 2001). Furthermore,
upwelling along the California coast has increased over the
past 30 years, and these increases are expected to continue
(Snyder et al. 2003). However, stronger thermal stratification
and a deepening of the thermocline could prevent cool,
nutrient-rich waters from being upwelled (Roemmich &
McGowan 1995). Because upwelling is of fundamental
importance in coastal marine systems, further elucidation of
the relationship between climate and upwelling is a high
research priority. Changes in atmospheric circulation might
also change storm frequency; an increase in the frequency of
winter storms has already been observed in coastal oceans
(Bromirski et al. 2003), and the trend is expected to continue
(IPCC 2001). Atmospheric circulation changes will also
influence precipitation patterns that will affect coastal
salinity, turbidity, and inputs of terrestrial-derived nutrients
and pollutants. Climate change could also alter large-scale
ocean circulation; previous warm periods were associated
with reduced advection within the California Current system
(Pisias et al. 2001). Finally, future warming is predicted to
lead to more frequent El Nin˜o-like conditions (Timmer-
mann et al. 1999).
Chemically-driven changes
Increasing greenhouse gas concentrations will have import-
ant and often overlooked impacts on ocean biogeochem-
istry. Atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations are
expected to rise from a pre-industrial level of 280 to 540–
970 ppm by the year 2100, depending on future emission
scenarios (IPCC 2001). Roughly half of the CO2 released by
human activities between 1800 and 1994 is now stored in
the ocean (Sabine et al. 2004), and about 30% of modern
CO2 emissions are taken up by oceans today (Feely et al.
2004). Continued uptake of atmospheric CO2 is expected to
substantially decrease oceanic pH over the next few
centuries, changing the saturation horizons of aragonite,
calcite, and other minerals essential to calcifying organisms
(Kleypas et al. 1999; Feely et al. 2004). Model estimates of
pH reduction in the surface ocean range from 0.3 to
0.5 units over the next 100 years and from 0.3 to 1.4 units
over the next 300 years, depending on the CO2 emission
scenario used (Caldeira & Wickett 2005). While many
marine organisms have adapted to thermal fluctuations in
the last few million years, the expected changes in pH are
higher than any other pH changes inferred from the fossil
record over the past 200–300 million years (Caldeira &
Wickett 2003; Feely et al. 2004). Finally, increasing CO2
levels in the atmosphere have been postulated to deplete the
ozone layer (Austin et al. 1992), potentially leading to
enhanced levels of ultraviolet radiation at the earth’s surface.
Additional complexities
The potential for biogeochemical feedback cycles makes it
difficult to precisely predict future temperatures and carbon
dioxide concentrations. For example, cloud cover, ultravi-
olet radiation, planktonic productivity, and the release of
dimethyl sulphide (DMS) by marine algae are all linked via
complex feedback mechanisms (IPCC 2001; Larsen 2005).
The ecological implications of these biogeochemical feed-
backs are beyond the scope of this review.
E C O L O G I C A L RE S P O N SE S T O C L I M A T E CH AN G E
The magnitude and variety of climatically forced changes in
the physical environment will provoke substantial proximate
and emergent responses in the biosphere (Fig. 3). The
Intensified
upwelling (?)
Increased storm
frequency
Increased air
temperature
Increased water
temperature
Decreased pH
Intensified atmospheric
pressure gradients
Increased
CO2
Sea level
rise
Increased greenhouse
gas concentrations
Increased
UV
Human activities
Figure 2 Important abiotic changes associ-
ated with climate change. Human activities
such as fossil fuel burning and deforestation
lead to higher concentrations of greenhouse
gases in the atmosphere, which in turn leads
to a suite of physical and chemical changes
in coastal oceans. The question mark indi-
cates that the relationship between climate
change and upwelling is uncertain. See text
for details.
230 C. D. G. Harley et al.
Ó 2006 Blackwell Publishing Ltd/CNRS
4. proximate ecological responses to climate change depend
upon the relationships between the abiotic environment,
organismal-level processes, population dynamics and com-
munity structure. The direct effects of climate change
(Fig. 3, yellow boxes) impact the performance of individuals
at various stages in their life history cycle (shown in green)
via changes in physiology, morphology and behaviour.
Climate impacts also occur at the population level via
changes in transport processes that influence dispersal and
recruitment. Community-level effects (in blue) are mediated
by interacting species (e.g. predators, competitors, etc.), and
include climate-driven changes in both the abundance and
the per capita interaction strength of these species. The
combination of these proximate impacts (upper box) result
in emergent ecological responses (lower oval), which include
alterations in species distributions, biodiversity, productivity
and microevolutionary processes.
In the sections below, we first focus on the proximate
impacts that various aspects of climate change will have
on organismal-level processes and population dynamics,
and how these factors will play out in local communities.
Because the existing literature is somewhat better
integrated across levels of biological organization than
across multiple climatic drivers (see Future directions), we
break our discussion down by climate variable rather than
by level of biological organization. After discussing the
likely proximal impacts of climate change, we turn our
attention to emergent ecological responses such as
biogeographical range shifts and changes in productivity
and diversity.
Proximal ecological responses to changing environmental
conditions
Responses to temperature
Temperature affects physiological processes ranging from
protein damage to membrane fluidity to organ function
(Hochachka & Somero 2002). Because many marine
organisms already live close to their thermal tolerances
(Somero 2002; Hughes et al. 2003), increases in temperature
can negatively impact the performance and survival of
marine organisms. For example, many reef-building corals
live very close to their upper thermal tolerances, and warm
episodes have resulted in widespread coral bleaching and
mortality (Hughes et al. 2003; McWilliams et al. 2005).
The biological importance of rising temperature varies
within and among species. It has long been known that
different ontogenetic stages are differentially susceptible to
environmental stress. For example, certain planktonic larval
stages are particularly susceptible to thermal effects
(Pechenik 1989), and the young benthic stages of many
organisms are more vulnerable to stress than are adults
(Foster 1971). However, recent work has identified unex-
pected differences in climate change vulnerability among
species. For example, although mid-intertidal porcelain
crabs and turban snails are more thermotolerant than their
subtidal congeners, the mid-intertidal species also live closer
to their physiological temperature limits, and have a
relatively limited ability to adjust their physiology (e.g. heart
rates and heat-shock protein synthesis) with increasing
acclimation temperature (Tomanek & Somero 1999; Still-
Larvae or
propagules
Adults
Physiological,
morphological,
and behavioral
effects
Changes in
population size
of interacting
species
Changes in
per capita
interaction
strengths
Transport
processes
Proximate ecological responses
Emergent ecological responses
Distributional shifts
Changes in productivity
Changes in diversity
Microevolutionary change
Figure 3 Potential ecological responses to
climate change. The life cycle of a generic
marine species is shown in green. Abiotic
changes in the environment have direct
impacts (yellow boxes) on dispersal and
recruitment, and on individual performance
at various stages in the life cycle. Additional
effects are felt at the community level via
changes in the population size and per capita
effects of interacting species (in blue). The
proximate ecological effects of climate
change thus include shifts in the perform-
ance of individuals, the dynamics of popu-
lations, and the structure of communities.
Taken together, these proximate effects lead
to emergent patterns such as changes in
species distributions, biodiversity, produc-
tivity, and microevolutionary processes. See
text for details.
Climate change in coastal marine systems 231
Ó 2006 Blackwell Publishing Ltd/CNRS
5. man 2003). Surprisingly, the more eurythermal and specif-
ically heat-tolerant mid- to high-intertidal species might
actually be more vulnerable to climate change than the less
heat-tolerant species. This pattern also holds at the
latitudinal scale: low-latitude species live nearer to their
thermal limits than higher-latitude species (Tomanek &
Somero 1999; Stillman 2002).
Temperature also affects the timing of ontogenetic
transitions. Climate change may decouple changes in the
larval environment from the cues used by the adult
population (Edwards & Richardson 2004). For example,
the timing of Macoma balthica spawning in north-western
Europe is temperature dependent. Recent warming trends
have led to earlier spawning but not earlier spring
phytoplankton blooms, resulting in a temporal mismatch
between larval production and food supply (Philippart et al.
2003). The intensity of predation on juvenile Macoma by
seasonally abundant shrimp has also increased because the
peak of shrimp abundance has advanced to coincide more
closely with the arrival of vulnerable spat (Philippart et al.
2003).
Rising temperatures will drive other important changes at
the community level. For example, the strength with which
the sea star Pisaster ochraceus, a keystone predator, interacts
with its principal prey (habitat forming mussels) varies with
water temperature (Sanford 1999). Exposure to warmer
waters increases both Pisaster’s mid-intertidal abundance and
per capita consumption rate (Sanford 1999). Sanford’s
results suggest that warming could allow Pisaster to
progressively eliminate large sections of mussel beds and
secondarily displace hundreds of species that inhabit the
mussel matrix. Climatic effects on one or a few key species
may drive community-level change in a variety of nearshore
assemblages: for example, invertebrate responses to elevated
sea surface temperatures near a power plant thermal outfall
appear to be mediated indirectly by thermally forced
decreases in the abundance of canopy-forming macrophytes
such as subtidal kelps and intertidal foliose red algae (Schiel
et al. 2004).
Responses to sea level rise
The most obvious consequence of sea level rise will be an
upward shift in species distributions. Most species are
expected to be able to keep pace with predicted rates of sea
level rise, with the exception of some slow-growing, long-
lived species such as many corals (see Knowlton 2001 for
review). However, dramatic ecological changes could result
from decreased habitat availability within a particular depth
zone. For example, intertidal habitat area may be reduced by
20–70% over the next 100 years in ecologically important
North American bays, where steep topography and
anthropogenic structures (e.g. sea walls) prevent the inland
migration of mudflats and sandy beaches (Galbraith et al.
2002). Sea level rise may also reduce the spatial extent of
biogenic habitat by outpacing the accretion rates of marshes
and coral reefs (Knowlton 2001; Scavia et al. 2002).
Responses to changes in circulation
Marine systems are expected to respond to changes in both
the mean wind fields and extreme wind events. Increasing
frequency of extreme winds and associated storm waves has
obvious implications for intertidal and shallow subtidal
systems that are vulnerable to hydrodynamic disturbance.
Caribbean coral reefs require over 8 years to recover from
damage incurred by storms (Gardner et al. 2005), and
increasing storm frequency will reduce the odds of recovery
between disturbance events. Changes in the mean wind
velocity will also be important, particularly as it relates to
upwelling intensity. Although researchers disagree on the
exact nature of climate-induced changes in upwelling, shifts
in nutrient supply are likely in the future. Upwelled nutrients
fuel growth and reproduction in benthic and planktonic
algae, and future changes in upwelling could have important
consequences for productivity (see Emergent ecological
responses).
Marine systems, which are often dominated by organisms
with planktonic life history stages, are also sensitive to
alteration in coastal oceanographic patterns. Upwelling and
alongshore advection patterns are strong determinants of
dispersal and recruitment in marine systems (Gaylord &
Gaines 2000; Connolly et al. 2001). Modelling work suggests
that increased offshore advection is often negatively
correlated with adult population size, and very strong
upwelling could theoretically prevent a species from
maintaining an adult benthic population at particular sites
(Connolly & Roughgarden 1999). Although such a scenario
has not been conclusively demonstrated in the field, it is
conceivable that altered patterns of mass transport could tip
the balance of larval recruitment to adult mortality and lead
to local population extinctions (Svensson et al. 2005).
Intriguingly, a speciesÕ response to upwelling intensity could
depend on community dynamics. Modelling work suggests
that, by reducing the population sizes of predators and
dominant competitors, increased offshore advection actually
increases the adult population sizes of planktonically
dispersing prey and subordinate competitors (Connolly &
Roughgarden 1999) – a trend opposite that which would be
predicted in the absence of interspecific interactions.
Responses to CO2 and pH change
When compared with physically driven changes such as
warming and sea level rise, the impacts of chemical changes
in the ocean are poorly understood. While increases in CO2
are expected to have positive impacts on many terrestrial
plants because of increases in photosynthesis (Ainsworth &
Long 2005), most marine plants (with the exception of
232 C. D. G. Harley et al.
Ó 2006 Blackwell Publishing Ltd/CNRS
6. seagrasses) are carbon-saturated (Gattuso & Buddemeier
2000), and enhanced growth is not expected. However, the
reduction in pH that will accompany elevated CO2
concentrations has profound implications for physiological
processes in marine organisms. Short-term experimental
elevation of CO2 results in reductions in subcellular
processes such as protein synthesis and ion exchange (for
review, see Po¨rtner & Langenbuch 2005). These physiolo-
gical effects are more pronounced for invertebrates than for
fish (Po¨rtner & Langenbuch 2005), suggesting that certain
taxa may be disproportionately affected by changes in CO2
and pH.
Longer-term, climatically realistic manipulations of CO2
are extremely rare, but the few available results are sobering.
A 3-month, 0.7-unit pH reduction lowered metabolic rate
and growth in mussels (Michaelidis et al. 2005). A 6-month
elevation of CO2 by a conservative 200 ppm, which lowered
pH by a mere 0.03 units, reduced both growth and
survivorship in gastropods and sea urchins (Shirayama &
Thornton 2005). Some of the measured reduction in growth
described above may be a response to decreased rates of
shell formation. Indeed, the future acidification of the
oceans could severely impact the many marine invertebrates
and algae that build carbonate structures. Decreased
calcification rates in response to increased CO2 has been
shown in taxa including coccolithophorid zooplankters,
coralline algae, reef-building scleractinian corals and
pteropod molluscs (Kleypas et al. 1999; Riebesell et al.
2000; Feely et al. 2004). Rates of calcification in corals and
coralline red algae are likely to drop by c. 10–40% with a
climatically realistic doubling of the pre-industrial partial
pressure of CO2 (Feely et al. 2004). The population- and
community-level impacts of such changes remain largely
unknown. Considering that the expected pH drop may be
unprecedented over the last several hundred million years,
more research on the ecological implications of pH change
is desperately needed.
Responses to UV
The depletion of the ozone layer because of increasing
carbon dioxide concentrations (Austin et al. 1992) will likely
result in increased ultraviolet radiation at the earth’s surface,
which would in turn have negative effects on invertebrate
larvae and algae (Bischof et al. 1998; Hoffman et al. 2003;
Peachey 2005). Recent work now suggests that the negative
impacts of UV on a particular species depends on the
presence of interacting species. For example, marine
phytoplankton were protected from UVB damage when
co-cultured with marine viruses (Jacquet & Bratbak 2003).
The impact of UV radiation on benthic algae can depend on
the presence of grazing invertebrates (Lotze et al. 2002).
These results suggest that future work must move beyond
single-factor experiments, as these simplistic studies might
greatly under- or over-estimate the importance of future
increases in ultraviolet radiation.
Emergent ecological responses
Distributional shifts: zonation patterns
Intertidal and near-shore benthic habitats are characterized
by strong vertical patterns in the distribution of organisms.
Biological zonation reflects the sharp local gradients in
physical stress, and zonation patterns are likely to shift as the
environment changes (Lubchenco et al. 1993). Long-term
data suggest that upper vertical limits, particularly of sessile
intertidal organisms, are inversely correlated with tempera-
ture (Mathieson et al. 1998). Several North Atlantic fishes
have also undergone shifts in their mean depth distribution
in response to warming (Perry et al. 2005). In systems such as
giant kelp forests where hydrodynamic disturbance from
storm waves sets upper distributional limits (Graham 1997),
species intolerant to such disturbance may become restricted
to deeper water. Laboratory and observational evidence
suggest that increased UV would also cause a downward shift
for some species of algae (Bischof et al. 1998), although
definitive field experiments have yet to be conducted. Finally,
sea level rise will have obvious consequences for the vertical
position of marine organisms (see above).
Although zonation shifts are local (vertical) phenomena,
they can lead to patterns at a variety of alongshore
(horizontal) scales. For example, some latitudinal range limits
appear to be set where the vertical range of a species collapses
to zero. This Ôsqueeze effectÕ arises when abiotic stress shifts
the vertical range of one species into the vertical range of a
consumer or competitor. The intertidal alga Mazzaella parksii
is restricted to environmentally benign, north-facing slopes
by the combined influence of aspect-dependent abiotic stress
and aspect-independent herbivory (Harley 2003). Conversely,
the barnacle Chthamalus fragilis is excluded from an environ-
mentally benign region (the Gulf of Maine) where there is no
vertical thermal refuge from a dominant competitor (Wethey
1983). The extent to which similar squeeze effects, operating
through time rather than space, will result in local and
geographic range shifts remains unknown.
Distributional shifts: biogeographical ranges
Widespread biogeographical range shifts clearly occur in
association with changing climatic conditions in marine
environments. Abundant fossil evidence demonstrates that
marine faunas shifted polewards as sea surface temperatures
rose, e.g. during the Pleistocene–Holocene transition
(reviewed in Fields et al. 1993). Short-term pulses of
increased temperatures, such as those during ENSO events,
can also impact speciesÕ distributional limits (Keister et al.
2005). Pelagic species and those with pelagic larval stages are
highly represented in the suite of species that have shifted
Climate change in coastal marine systems 233
Ó 2006 Blackwell Publishing Ltd/CNRS
7. their distributions in the past and might be especially likely
to experience range shifts with global climate change.
Historical records have identified recent, decadal-scale
changes in speciesÕ distributions. Actual documentation of
latitudinal range shifts is relatively rare, but recent work has
identified warming-associated poleward range shifts for a
Californian gastropod (Zacherl et al. 2003), a Caribbean
coral (Precht & Aronson 2004), and North Sea fishes (Perry
et al. 2005). In lieu of searching for the expansion or
contraction of range boundaries, which are often difficult to
determine with certainty, many researchers have investigated
changes in speciesÕ relative abundances at a single location as
a proxy for spatial shifts. Perhaps the most comprehensive
study to date is that of Southward et al. (1995), which
demonstrated changes in the abundance of Northeast
Atlantic taxa ranging from kelps to barnacles and from
zooplankton to fish. The local abundance of southern taxa
increased while northern taxa decreased during periods of
warming, and the reverse occurred during a period of
cooling. Several additional studies have demonstrated a shift
from higher-latitude to lower-latitude species during periods
of warming (Barry et al. 1995; Holbrook et al. 1997; Hawkins
et al. 2003). Interestingly, this seemingly general pattern of
abundance shifts in accordance with ÔwarmÕ vs. ÔcoldÕ
biogeographical distributions was not found in a study of
artificial warming near a power plant (Schiel et al. 2004). It is
unclear whether this discrepancy indicates that biogeo-
graphical designations are an overly simplistic predictor of
change, or if ecological responses to spatially limited
warming may not be accurate predictors of larger-scale
impacts associated with climate change.
Predicting future distributional shifts requires additional
attention to speciesÕ range boundaries and to the factors that
determine them. In terrestrial environments, range edges are
generally thought to be set where environmental conditions
exceed the tolerances of individuals. Given this assumption,
the Ôbioclimate envelopeÕ approach has been used with some
success to predict range shifts through time (Pearson &
Dawson 2003). In marine environments, direct climatic
effects on individuals are also important. Many organisms
are more stressed near their speciesÕ range boundaries (Sorte
& Hofmann 2004), and the distributions of these species
can be expected to shift as environmental conditions
change. However, environmental processes which impact
population dynamics (e.g. flow-mediated dispersal) are
extremely important in marine environments, where they
play a greater role than in terrestrial habitats. Current-
mediated dispersal limitation can define many biogeogra-
phical boundaries in coastal oceans, despite potentially
suitable habitat beyond the dispersal barrier (Gaylord &
Gaines 2000). Thus, many marine speciesÕ range limits may
remain stationary even as conditions in extra-limital habitats
become suitable (Fields et al. 1993). Conversely, we suggest
that a warming-associated weakening of alongshore advec-
tion (Pisias et al. 2001) could actually break down certain
marine biogeographical barriers that currently prevent range
expansions.
Interactions among species at the community level could
also influence range boundaries. This effect has been
demonstrated in the laboratory (Davis et al. 1998), and has
long been suspected to hold true in natural environments
(Darwin 1859). Indeed, herbivory and competition play
roles in setting local and regional range limits for the alga
Mazzaella parksii and the barnacle Chthamalus fragilis, respect-
ively (see above). Although definitive examples of interspe-
cifically forced shifts in range boundaries are currently
lacking, recent population declines and local extinctions near
the southern limits of the mussel Mytilus trossulus and the
abalone Haliotis cracherodii in California might have been
driven by the expansion of a competitor and a parasite,
respectively (Geller 1999; Raimondi et al. 2002). Although
both examples involve putatively invasive species, both
invasives are warm-water taxa whose present poleward
expansion might be linked to rising temperatures.
Finally, it is important to consider the present and future
patterns of environmental stress. Present temperatures and
predicted near-future increases in thermal stress do not
necessarily vary consistently with latitude in coastal marine
systems (Helmuth et al. 2002), and organisms could be most
at risk in ÔhotspotsÕ well removed from the range edge.
Changes in species composition, diversity and community structure
Climate change, along with exploitation, habitat alteration,
and pollution, is reducing the abundance of many marine
species and increasing the likelihood of local (and in some
cases global) extinction. Although we know of no present-
day extinction of a marine species definitively linked to
climate change, climatically driven extinction risk is now
extremely high for some species such as the Mediterranean
mysid Hemimysis speluncola (Chevaldonne & Lejeusne 2003).
Because many coastal marine ecosystems such as kelp
forests and coral reefs feature low functional redundancy
(Micheli & Halpern 2005), the local loss of even one species
could have important community- and ecosystem-level
consequences. Conversely, climate change will play a role
in the determining the rate at which new species are added
to communities. In addition to allowing natural range
expansions (see above), warming temperatures can facilitate
the establishment and spread of deliberately or accidentally
introduced species (Carlton 2000; Stachowicz et al. 2002b).
More generally, climatically driven changes in species
composition and abundance will alter species diversity, with
implications for ecosystem functions such as productivity
(Duffy 2003) and invasion resistance (Stachowicz et al.
2002a; Duffy 2003). The one study we are aware of that
simultaneously manipulated diversity and thermal stress
234 C. D. G. Harley et al.
Ó 2006 Blackwell Publishing Ltd/CNRS
8. found that more diverse algal assemblages were less resistant
but more resilient to disturbance imparted by extreme
temperatures (Allison 2004). Understanding linkages
between species diversity and ecosystem function is a
general research gap in marine ecology and is wide-open to
investigations in the context of climate change.
Even if species composition is not altered by climate
change, the strength or sign of interspecific interactions
might change. Because species respond individualistically to
climate change (e.g. Schiel et al. 2004), shifts in community
dynamics are guaranteed as the abundance, phenology and
per capita impacts of interacting species change. Although
climate-forced shifts in species interactions are likely to be
highly idiosyncratic, certain generalizations might apply. As
environmental conditions become more stressful, compet-
itive interactions in intertidal communities can shift to
facilitative interactions (Leonard 2000). Conversely, the
negative effects of disease are likely to become more severe,
as pathogens are generally favoured by warmer temperatures
relative to their hosts (Harvell et al. 2002). The strength of
trophic interactions can change when climate change
differentially affects consumer and resource species
(Philippart et al. 2003). Importantly, direct climatic impacts
on one or a few ÔleverageÕ species could drive the response
of an entire system (Sanford 1999; Schiel et al. 2004). As
Sanford (1999) has demonstrated, changes in both popula-
tion size and per capita effects can be important drivers of
ecological change.
Changes in primary and secondary production
Changes in the distribution of habitat types because of
global climate change and the concomitant rise in sea level
will likely have significant ecosystem consequences via
changes in primary production. Increasing temperature, UV
radiation and storm disturbance could restrict the latitudinal
and bathymetric ranges of important primary producers
such as kelps (Graham et al. 1997; Bischof et al. 1998;
Steneck et al. 2002). Although other producers might replace
these climatically sensitive species, reductions in kelp
production will have important consequences for other
near-shore habitats that depend on the export of kelp
detritus (Duggins et al. 1989).
Fluctuations in primary production in coastal systems will
depend largely on variation in nutrient concentrations
caused by changes in ocean current patterns and upwelling
regimes. Although the exact direction of this change is
difficult to predict because of complex oceanography,
variation in nutrients will have significant impacts on
benthic macroalgal abundance and evenness, with subse-
quent effects on overall production (Lotze & Worm 2002;
Nielsen 2003). Furthermore, as dissolved carbon concen-
trations increase, macroalgae could be replaced in some
localities by seagrasses. Seagrasses, which evolved during the
Cretaceous when CO2 concentrations were much higher,
exhibit carbon-limited photosynthesis under recent concen-
trations. Macroalgae, on the contrary, are currently carbon-
saturated (Beardall et al. 1998). An increase in the relative
abundance of seagrasses would result in a more detritus-
based food web (Williams & Heck 2001).
Changes in primary production can in turn be ameliorated
or exacerbated by climatic effects on the metabolic
processes and population dynamics of consumers. Although
increases in water temperature can positively affect
macroalgal recruitment, the impacts of invertebrate con-
sumers also tend to increase with temperature (Lotze &
Worm 2002). The balance of climatic forcing at different
trophic levels is clearly important, as the influence of
nutrients on primary production often depends upon grazer
abundances (Lotze & Worm 2002; Nielsen 2003). Individ-
ualistic phenological responses to climate change among
marine functional groups will impact secondary production
as the synchrony of successive trophic peaks decays
(Edwards & Richardson 2004). The relative response of
primary and secondary producers to upwelling dynamics can
also be critical. In the Benguela upwelling system, high rates
of offshore transport are proposed to favour producers by
transporting herbivorous zooplankton out of the near-shore
system (Bakun & Weeks 2004). The deposition and
decomposition of surplus phytoplankton biomass on the
seafloor have been linked to large eruptions of methane and
hydrogen sulphide gas, which in turn lead to hypoxia and
increased mortality of near-shore animals such as rock
lobsters and Cape hake. Future global intensification of
near-shore upwelling could drive additional coastal systems
into a similar state (Bakun & Weeks 2004). Given the
dramatic nature of this prediction, additional attention
should be focused on the assumed relationship between
climate change and upwelling dynamics.
Population dynamics and evolution
While Ôcontemporary evolutionÕ in response to factors such
as over-harvesting have been addressed (Stockwell et al.
2003), few studies have directly assessed how adaptation
might mediate climatic impacts in marine systems (but see
Berteaux et al. 2004). Selection for organismal-level traits has
the potential to mitigate some of the climate-related
environmental shifts predicted to occur (Fields et al. 1993).
A growing body of evidence from phylogeographic (Marko
2004; Hickerson & Cunningham 2005) and contemporary
studies (Kingsolver et al. 2001; Stockwell et al. 2003;
Berteaux et al. 2004) indicates that adaptive and/or evolu-
tionary responses can take place on the rapid temporal
scales over which climate is expected to change. However,
species with long-generation times are expected to have a
slower response to rapid changes in climate (Berteaux et al.
2004), and clonal organisms may be especially sensitive to
Climate change in coastal marine systems 235
Ó 2006 Blackwell Publishing Ltd/CNRS
9. change because, despite high numbers of individuals, they
often have low effective population size and a little potential
to adapt to rapid changes (Lasker & Coffroth 1999).
Dispersal is integral to gene flow and local adaptation
among populations, and the ability of populations to adapt
to changing selective forces will depend on speciesÕ dispersal
mode, climate-related changes in abundance and distribu-
tion of organisms, and larval transport (Jump & Pen˜uelas
2005). For example, low gene flow between populations can
increase the potential for local adaptation [(Holt &
Gomulkiewicz 1997), see (Sanford et al. 2003) for a marine
example]. However, climatically forced reductions in pop-
ulation size and subsequent genetic drift could restrict a
speciesÕ potential for adaptation by eliminating heritable
traits of ecological importance (Stockwell et al. 2003;
Berteaux et al. 2004). Intense selection on single loci is
likely to decrease variability in the rest of the genome (Jump
& Pen˜uelas 2005), and lower population genetic variation
can lead to a reduced ability to respond to climatic stress
even on ecological time scales (Reusch et al. 2005). In
addition to effects of neutral variation, variation in loci such
as mannose phosphate isomerase (Mpi) (Rand et al. 2002)
and heat-shock protein Hsp70 (Sorte & Hofmann 2005) can
mediate which individuals tolerate thermal stress at different
intertidal locations. However, a very little is known about
how organisms might respond to multiple climate stressors
(e.g. pH and temperature), and such responses are important
to examine since trade-offs (Breeman et al. 2002) and/or
genetic correlations (Etterson & Shaw 2001; reviewed in
Jump & Pen˜uelas 2005) among physiological traits may limit
the ability of species to adapt to contemporary climate
change.
D I R E C T I O N S F O R F UT U R E RE S E A R C H
Non-linearities and non-independent effects
One of the fundamental challenges facing ecologists is
understanding how natural systems will respond to
environmental conditions that have no analogue at present
or in the recent past. This gap in our experience creates
two ways in which future ecological change may surprise
us. First, we risk being caught off guard by non-linearities
in the climate system that are specific to climatic
conditions we have not yet experienced. A prime example
is the potential shut-down of thermohaline circulation in
the North Atlantic. Our confidence in predicting such an
event is severely limited by the simple fact that we have
not witnessed conditions similar to those predicted to
emerge over the next few centuries. Important non-
linearities are likely to arise in biological systems as well.
One recent study has demonstrated that biological
responses to shifting climatic conditions (e.g. phytoplank-
ton abundance and salmon returns) are non-linear –
appearing as Ôregime shiftsÕ – even though the underlying
abiotic changes (e.g. sea surface temperature) are linear
stochastic (Hsieh et al. 2005). This suggests that gradual
changes in future climate may provoke sudden and perhaps
unpredictable biological responses as ecosystems shift from
one state to another.
The challenge of predicting the outcomes of climate
change is made even more difficult when the combined
effects of two or more variables cannot be predicted from
the individual effect of each. Non-independent effects are
common in nature, and may arise in one of two principle
ways: (1) the impact of one factor is either strengthened or
weakened by variation in another factor; and (2) the
combined influence of two stressors pushes an individual
or population beyond a critical threshold that would not be
reached via variation in either forcing variable operating in
isolation. Of the papers we considered in our literature
review, a respectable 14.7% incorporated statistical designs
that could detect non-independent effects of multiple
forcing variables. However, the vast majority of these
studies manipulated temperature and either salinity or food
supply; only 2.2% of all studies were designed to test non-
independent effects of more than one variable directly
related to climate change.
Although the extent to which specific abiotic factors and
biological responses will behave non-independently under
future climate scenarios is largely unknown, there is a
growing body of evidence that suggests that a variety of
non-independent effects will be important. For example,
Hoffman et al. (2003) found a non-independent relationship
between temperature and UV; algal spores survived all
levels of UV when water was relatively warm, whereas
spores died in treatments with high levels of UV in
relatively cool water. There is also a striking interaction
between temperature and the partial pressure of CO2 with
regards to coral calcification rates; experimental pCO2
increase did not affect calcification at 25 °C, but reduced it
by nearly 50% at 28 °C (Reynaud et al. 2003). More broadly,
elevated CO2 is postulated to narrow the thermal tolerance
limits of organisms via depression of vital physiological
pathways (Po¨rtner & Langenbuch 2005). Because the
cumulative effects of multiple stressors may lead to greater
(or lesser) changes in marine systems than expected from
studies that focus on a single stressor, future work must
determine which variables are most likely to interact and
why.
Interactions with additional anthropogenic stressors
Synergisms between climate change and anthropogenic
factors are a special case of non-independent effects – we
discuss them separately because they are much more readily
236 C. D. G. Harley et al.
Ó 2006 Blackwell Publishing Ltd/CNRS
10. managed by altering human behaviour. The ways in which
human activities interact with climate are multi-fold. For
example, increasing exposure to polycyclic aromatic hydro-
carbon pollutants (PAHs) did not significantly influence
larval crab mortality in the absence of UV radiation, but the
combination of UV radiation and high PAH exposure
resulted in high mortality (Peachey 2005). Anthropogenic
structures such as sea walls will influence the severity of
habitat loss in response to sea level rise (Galbraith et al.
2002). Nearshore zones of hypoxia and anoxia are created in
part by agricultural runoff (National Research Council 2000),
and the physiological effects of hypoxia vary with tempera-
ture and CO2 concentration (Po¨rtner & Langenbuch 2005).
Most importantly, marine ecological responses to climate
change will hinge on human fishing pressure. For example, it
is possible for fishing and climate change acting in concert to
reduce exploited populations below a population size from
which they cannot easily recover (Scavia et al. 2002).
Furthermore, the removal of important consumers through
fishing alters community dynamics, which may increase a
system’s susceptibility to climate-induced changes (Hughes
et al. 2003). Finally, complex feedbacks among fishing effort,
stock size, and climate can drive changes in human socio-
economic systems. For example, the combined influence of
fishing pressure and changing environmental conditions led
to the collapse of the cod fishery off western Greenland in
the early 1990s (Hamilton et al. 2000). In response, local
fishers redirected their effort to shrimp (which had not
previously been exploited in the area), and the distribution of
the human population along the Greenland coast is shifting
to reflect the accessibility of this new resource (Hamilton
et al. 2000). These examples illustrate the general point that
human responses to changing environmental conditions (e.g.
shifts in fishing effort or land use practices) will likely
mediate many of the ecological outcomes of climate change.
Synthesis and model development
Linking individuals and populations to communities and
ecosystems, and relating local-scale impacts to broader-scale
changes, will improve our understanding of the biological
consequences of climate change. Recent publication pat-
terns (Fig. 1c) demonstrate that most studies have dealt with
individual-level changes (e.g. physiology) with relatively few
studies at the community level or higher. This pattern no
doubt reflects the difficulty of manipulating and measuring
responses at higher levels of biological organization.
Consequently, we still know little about how climatic
stresses, which are imparted upon individuals, translate into
ecologically and socio-economically important changes in
populations, communities, and ecosystems. Nevertheless,
the evidence which has accumulated over the past several
years clearly indicates that integrating different levels of
biological organization will be essential to predicting the
responses of even simple ecosystems to climate change.
Determining how climate change will affect all levels of
biological organization requires predictive mathematical
models. An important advantage of models is that the
underlying assumptions are typically explicit, and in some
cases confidence intervals can be placed on predictions. In
addition, investigators can use sensitivity and elasticity
analyses to explore which parameters might strongly
influence populations, communities and ecosystems. Within
the marine literature, fisheries biologists have already
developed mathematical models to predict the population
level effects of climate change (Clark et al. 2003; Tian et al.
2004). However, predictive models for marine benthic
invertebrates and algae are much less common (but see
Svensson et al. 2005). Fisheries models can provide a
valuable starting point for developing predictive models
for a wide variety of marine population-, community-, and
ecosystem-level responses to climate change.
A more complete synthesis will require active collabor-
ation across additional disciplines. Within the biological
sciences, communication among physiologists, geneticists,
population biologists and community ecologists will help
provide a more holistic image of biological change.
Climatologists and oceanographers will help refine our
understanding of where and how climate change will impact
coastal systems. Finally, the inclusion of resource managers
and economists will help to prioritize research efforts on
those areas of highest socio-economic relevance.
C O N C L U S I O N S
The Earth’s radiative heat balance is currently out of
equilibrium, and mean global temperatures will continue to
rise for several centuries even if greenhouse gas emissions
are stabilized at present levels (IPCC 2001). Over the long-
term, a reduction in greenhouse gas emissions will be
necessary if we are to slow and eventually reverse global
warming. The recent implementation of the Kyoto Protocol,
which calls for developed countries to reduce their
emissions on average by 5.2% below 1990 levels, is an
important step towards this long-term goal. However,
because it will be essentially impossible to halt or reverse
warming within the next 100 years (or conceivably much
longer), additional strategies must be adopted to mitigate the
potentially harmful effects of climate change in coastal
marine systems.
One such strategy is the establishment of marine
protected areas and no-take reserves. Because stable
populations and intact communities appear to be more
resilient to climatic disturbances such as episodic heat waves
and storms, such protective measures may help to minimize
the risk of population collapses, community disruption, and
Climate change in coastal marine systems 237
Ó 2006 Blackwell Publishing Ltd/CNRS
11. biodiversity loss (Hughes et al. 2003). The designation of
protected areas should be based at least in part on known
spatial and temporal refuges that can act as buffers against
climate-related stress (Allison et al. 1998). Fisheries manag-
ers must also incorporate climate change into consideration
when determining fishery management plans (Jurado-
Molina & Livingston 2002). Additional research with
explicit relevance to policy decisions will help evaluate
the effectiveness of these conservation and management
strategies.
Much recent scientific progress will be central to
meeting current and future conservation and management
goals. However, several key areas require additional study.
In addition to temperature, the consequences of climate-
related variables such as CO2 and pH must be more fully
considered. Crucially, ecologists must determine when,
where, and how the role of any given climatic driver is
dependent upon other forcing variables. Furthermore, the
links between individuals, populations, and communities
require further attention if we are to translate direct
climatic impacts on individuals into their ultimate ecolog-
ical outcomes. The daunting scope of this research should
be managed by careful prioritization of key species (by
their functional role in marine communities). Demogra-
phic modelling to identify life history stages critical to
population persistence will provide a second level of
prioritization within key species. Finally, improvements to
climate models at the regional scale will be necessary if
we are to apply our understanding of bioclimatic linkages
to specific cases of concern for conservation and
management. If approached with care, research in the
coming decade should provide much of the additional
information necessary to assess and mitigate the potential
impacts of climate change in coastal marine ecosystems.
ACKNOW L E DGE MENTS
Early phases of this project were greatly enhanced by the
participation of Andy Chang, Steven Morgan, Brian Steves,
and Heidi Weiskel. Constructive criticism from Matt
Bracken, Jane Hill, Eric Sanford, Jay Stachowicz, and four
anonymous referees improved the manuscript. Molly
Engelbrecht assisted with the literature review. C.S.T. was
supported by an NIGMS MORE Institutional Research and
Academic Career Development Award to UC Davis and San
Francisco State University, grant no. K12GM00679. This is
contribution no. 2290 of the Bodega Marine Laboratory,
University of California at Davis.
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APPENDIX
In an effort to capture recent trends in the literature, we
analysed recently published papers in the field of marine
ecology. Our literature survey was divided into two parts: (1)
changes in the publication rate of climate change-related
science as a percentage of all marine ecology literature; and
2) a more in-depth look at research topics in recent years.
To assess the frequency of marine climate change-related
papers, we ran a search on the Web of Science for the years
1991 (the first year in which abstracts were included for
many journals) through 2004 (the most recent complete
year). We also included all 2005 publications available in the
database as of 31 October 2005. Our search terms were
ÔmarineÕ plus any of the following: physiolog*, development,
growth, reproduc*, mortality, population*, dispersal, evolu-
tion, community, competition, predation, parasitism, mutu-
alism, facilitation, productivity, diversity, invasi*, extinction,
biogeograph*, or zonation. We then re-ran the search with
the added term Ôclimate changeÕ. Changes in journal space
devoted to climate change were identified by calculating the
percentage of papers in the larger search that also contained
the term Ôclimate changeÕ on a year-by-year basis. Although
no effort was made to verify the relevance of the 585
climate-related papers found, the patterns were indistin-
guishable from those arising from the more detailed search.
Our more detailed analysis was restricted to nine journals
that span the spectrum of the primary literature: Ecology,
Ecology Letters, Evolution, Global Change Biology, the
Journal of Experimental Marine Biology and Ecology,
Limnology & Oceanography, Marine Ecology Progress
Series, Nature and Science. We searched within the years
2000–2004, inclusive. Our keywords included pH, CO2,
temperature, upwelling, sea level rise, UV, salinity, phenol-
ogy, larvae, range shifts, zonation, life cycle, current,
dispersal, recruitment and climate change, along with
wildcards that allowed for alternate spellings and tenses.
For non-marine journals, we restricted our analysis to those
papers also containing one of the following terms: marine,
ocean, sea, benthic, pelagic, subtidal and intertidal. For one
journal (MEPS), our search yielded over 1000 hits;
therefore, we further restricted the search within MEPS to
words appearing in the title. All abstracts were checked to
verify the paper’s relevance. In the end, our analysis
included 360 references. These papers were binned into
abiotic variable(s) investigated and level(s) of biological
response investigated. The abiotic variables were tempera-
ture, CO2, pH, nutrient supply, circulation (advection or
upwelling papers unrelated to nutrient supply), storminess
(including hydrodynamic disturbance), sea level rise, UV
radiation and climate index (e.g. the ENSO or the North
Atlantic Oscillation). Levels of biological response were
individual (including physiology, growth, behaviour, devel-
opment and mortality), population (including dispersal,
inter-generational changes in abundance, population genet-
ics and evolution), community (competition, predation,
parasitism, mutualism and facilitation), and Ôhigher levelÕ
(productivity, diversity, species invasions, zonation and
biogeography). Finally, we noted whether or not the
statistical design would allow for the identification of non-
independent effects (e.g. a factorial manipulation of both
temperature and CO2).
Editor, Jane Hill
Manuscript received 26 August 2005
First decision made 18 October 2005
Manuscript accepted 3 November 2005
Climate change in coastal marine systems 241
Ó 2006 Blackwell Publishing Ltd/CNRS