The document discusses the design of probabilistic tools for multi-hazard assessment and risk management, emphasizing the need for effective risk reduction strategies that combine scientific, technological, and practical approaches. It highlights the importance of clear communication of probabilistic information to decision-makers and the necessity for accessible, open-source tools to facilitate risk assessment and vulnerability analysis. Finally, it underscores the need for post-2015 frameworks to enhance research coordination, education, and honest policies for effective disaster risk reduction.

1. Designing probabilistc tools for
multhazard assessment and risk
5th Internatonal Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
‘Integratve Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practce‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
management
Joan Mart, Rosa Sobradelo
Insttute of Earth Sciences Jaume Almera,
CSIC, Barcelona, Spain. E-mail:
joan.mart@ictja.csic.es

2. 5th Internatonal Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
‘Integratve Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practce‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
NATURAL DISASTERS VS
MAN MADE DISASTERS

3. NATURE DOES NOT MAKE DISASTERS!!!!........
JUST TENDS TO KEEPT ITS EQUILIBRIUM
5th Internatonal Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
‘Integratve Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practce‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org

4. ….....DISASTERS ARE MADE BY MAN WHEN HE DOES
NOT PROPERLY ADDRESS RISK REDUCTION (RISK
ASSESSMENT + VULNERABILITY REDUCTION +
RESILIENCE INCREASE)
5th Internatonal Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
‘Integratve Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practce‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org

5. ….....politicians usually say good words, but unfortunately
they undertake poor and limited actions concerning risk
reduction (it does not provide clear political benefits in the
short term!).
…..... what can be done from the scientific and technological
side???
5th Internatonal Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
‘Integratve Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practce‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org

6. 5th Internatonal Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
‘Integratve Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practce‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org

7. 5th Internatonal Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
‘Integratve Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practce‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
The scientific
contribution

8. THE COMPLEXITY OF NATURAL HAZARDS: CASCADING EVENTS
LANDSLIDES
5th Internatonal Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
‘Integratve Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practce‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
EARTHQUAKES
FLOODS STORMS
TSUNAMIS
VOLCANOES

9. VOLCANOES: A PERFECT EXAMPLE OF MULTI-HAZARD AND
CASCADING EVENTS AND EFFECTS
FLOODS LANDSLIDES
5th Internatonal Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
‘Integratve Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practce‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
EARTHQUAKES
STORMS
TSUNAMIS
VOLCANOES
(lava flows, PDC,
fallout, lahars, ..)

10. 5th Internatonal Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
‘Integratve Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practce‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
PROBABILISTIC TOOLS: WHY, WHICH, AND HOW?
- Probabilities are the best and most objective outcome for our forecasts on the
occurrence and extend of natural events. The problem is to explain probabilities
if the receiver is not numerically trained. Probabilities and uncertainties need to
be explained in plain text not hidden behind sophisticated mathematical wording
- The models to be develop should address risk assessment and mitigation
actions (long and short term risk assessment, communication protocols, decision
models, vulnerability analysis, resilience models). Science needs to convince
decision makers that prevention is always cheaper and much more effective
than reaction
- Tools to be developed most be free of cost, based on open and free software,
easy to use, of rapid applicability, clear and comprehensive, and honest in their
objectives and potential applications and results

11. 5th Internatonal Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
‘Integratve Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practce‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
VVOOLLCCAANNICIC H HAAZZAARRDDSS

12. HASSET
Probabilistic long and
Short-term hazard
Assessment
(5 most probable
scenarios)
The scenario
maker box
5th Internatonal Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
‘Integratve Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practce‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
QVAST
Susceptibility analysis
(location and extent
of the event)
VORIS2
Event simulator
(event scenarios and
Hazards maps)
VERDI
Database
(DEM, territorial data,
Physical data,
vulnerability data, etc)
BADEMO
Decision Model
(cost/benefit analysis)
VOLCDAM
Vulnerability (damage)
Analysis
(structural damage,
Health impact)
IMPLEMENTATION
ACTIONS TO
MINIMISE RISK

13. 5th Internatonal Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
‘Integratve Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practce‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org

14. 5th Internatonal Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
‘Integratve Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practce‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org

15. 5th Internatonal Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
‘Integratve Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practce‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org

16. 5th Internatonal Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
‘Integratve Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practce‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org

17. 5th Internatonal Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
‘Integratve Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practce‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org

18. Added value for the Post 2015 Framework for Disaster
5th Internatonal Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
‘Integratve Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practce‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
Risk Reducton
How did your work support the implementaton of the Hyogo Framework for
Acton:
- Provides an easy to use methodology undertake volcanic hazard assessment, open to any
potental user
- Identfes that sequental steps necessary to undertake hazard (and risk) assessment as an
efectve way to antcipate to volcanic events and to reduce volcanic risk
- These methodology and tools are designed to help decision makers but also to facilitate
comprehension of the phenomena to the other stakeholders
From your perspectve what are the main gaps, needs and further steps to be
addressed in the Post 2015 Framework for Disaster Risk Reducton in
– Research: needs coordinaton, improvement and fnancial support
– Educaton & Training: Needs to be generalised and extended to all societal levels (populaton,
media, decision makers, scientsts, technicians, ...)
– Implementaton & Practce: It is urgent to promote pilot implementaton actons worldwide
– Policy: honest policy based on scientfc knowledge and societal needs

19. 5th Internatonal Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
‘Integratve Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practce‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
TANKS FOR YOUR ATTENTION