5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice 24-28 August 2014 in Davos, Switzerland

1. Land use modelling – a way of
mapping future hazard-sensitive
5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
population
Giedrius Kaveckis
Benjamin Bechtel
Jürgen Ossenbrügge
Thomas Pohl
Institute of Geography, Center for Earth System
Research and Sustainability, University of Hamburg,
Germany

2. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
Outline
• Introduction/motivation;
• Hazard-sensitive population;
• Land use and population;
• Residential local climate zones for Hamburg;
• Future land modelling;
• Disaggregation;
• Future focus;
• Future population mapping framework;
• Conclusions and outlook;
• Added value for the Post 2015 Framework for Disaster Risk
Reduction.

3. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
Introduction/motivation
• Number of population exposed to natural hazards is
increasing;
• Intensive urbanization of hazard-prone areas;
• Need to identify future hazard-sensitive population groups;
• Aim of research – analyze if land use modelling can support
future population mapping;
• Our approach – disaggregation of future social projections.

4. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
Hazard-sensitive population
• More or less, all people are sensitive to hazards;
• Losses of women and children are 14 times greater than than
men during a disaster (UNDP 2010);
• 82% of victims of 2003 heat wave in France were over 75
years old;
• Sensitivity differs for specific hazard;
• Common indicators: age, gender, race, ethnicity, employment,
income, diseases, mobility, education etc.
• Main problem – lack of future data;
• Our selected indicators: age and gender, social status (may be
included).
Additional sources: Poumadère et al.2005, Cutter et al. 2001

5. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
Land use and population
• Land use – common term;
• Land use does not fully represent urban diversity (i.e.
residential);
• Our solution – local climate zones (LCZ);
• LCZ consider housing type, land cover, land use, morphology;
• We enhanced LCZ scheme with European building structures;
• 11 LCZ can be used for housing of population;
• Assumption – social properties of population varies between
LCZ;
• To test assumption – quantitative LCZ and population count
comparison analysis (outlook).
Source: Stewart et al. 2012

6. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
Residential local climate zones (LCZ)

7. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
Future land use modelling
• We use a commercial Metronamica future land modelling
tool;
• Metronamica is based on cellular automata and MOLAND
model;
• Through calibration of historical environment, it models
future land use.
Neighborhood potential between two local
climte zones
LCZ coverage (1990) of Hamburg case study area

8. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
Disaggregation
• Common mapping of population – spatial disaggregation of
census data;
• Disaggregation (downscaling) – transfer of coarse information
into more detailed scale;
• Zones’ types: source (known data), target (finer units);
• Common methods: simple area weighting, binary dasymetric
mapping, classified dasymetric mapping;
• To improve accuracy, the ancillary information (i.e. land use
with densities) is essential;
• Usual techniques to deliver densities: regression model,
locally fitted regression model;
• We are disaggregating future social projections using local
climate zones as a proxy.

9. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland
Population
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Future focus
Census Data Land data +
densities
Future population
projections (by
gender and age)
Future modelled land
data + densities
Time
Today
Future
Source data Ancillary data
Disaggregation
Result
Future hazard-sensitive
population
Disaggregation

10. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
Future population mapping framework

11. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
Conclusions and outlook
• Our case study and test bed – Hamburg Metropolitan area in 2050;
• Classified dasymetric mapping method with locally fitted regression
model is most appropriate for our case study;
• Our approach and framework contributes to future population’s
vulnerability assessment at the local level;
• Novelty – future vulnerability is based not on today’s, but on
future’s exposure.
• Need to compare densities of hazard-sensitive properties for each
residential LCZ;
• Future land modelling – tough task with a lot of uncertainty;
• Population trends, land development scenarios, migration and time
span should be considered.

12. Added value for the Post 2015 Framework for
5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
Disaster Risk Reduction
• The following deliverables support the implementation of the Hyogo
Framework for Action:
– Selected indicators support decision-makers to assess future disasters;
– Framework strengthens capacity to apply new methods to assess vulnerability and
risk;
– Our approach encourages to use the guidelines in the context of land use policy
and planning.
• The main gaps, needs and further steps to be addressed in the Post 2015
Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction in
– Research: increase cooperation and coordination between research teams;
– Education & Training: enhance research capacities and education in developing
countries;
– Implementation & Practice: strengthen cooperation between business, industry
and science, especially at the local level;
– Policy: apply great examples of effective policy to bring science, business and
industry together.

13. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
Thank you for your attention!
Giedrius Kaveckis
Institute of Geography, Center for Earth System Research and
Sustainability, University of Hamburg, Germany
Email: giedrius.kaveckis@uni-hamburg.de
Tel.: +49 40 42838 7589