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Livestock and resilient future food systems: Developing countries and global perspectives

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Livestock and resilient future food systems: Developing countries and global perspectives

  1. 1. Livestock and resilient future food systems: Developing countries and global perspectives Jimmy Smith, Director General International Livestock Research Institute, Kenya Meeting of the Agricultural Chief Scientists of G20 States (MACS) 14 November 2017
  2. 2. CGIAR: Science for a food-secure future 15 research centres working in more than 70 countries ILRI’s Mission Improve food and nutritional security and reduce poverty in developing countries through research for efficient, safe and sustainable use of livestock— ensuring better lives through livestock
  3. 3. Livestock commodities Demand Supply and Transition
  4. 4. Global commodity values: On average, animal-source foods make up 5 of the top 10 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 Rice, paddy Milk, whole fresh cow Meat, pig Maize Wheat Meat, chicken Meat, cattle Potatoes Eggs, hen, in shell Sugar cane Current million USD (average values 2005-2014; animal source foods: USD 825 billion)
  5. 5. 0 50 100 150 200 250 E.Asia Pacific China South Asia SSA High income % growth in demand for livestock products 2000–2030 5 0 50 100 150 200 250 E.Asia Pacific China South Asia SSA High income 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 E.Asia Pacific China South Asia SSA High income 0 50 100 150 200 250 E.Asia Pacific China South Asia SSA High income Estimates of the % growth in demand for animal source foods in different World regions, comparing 2005 and 2030. Estimates were developed using the IMPACT model, courtesy Dolapo Enahoro, ILRI. Beef Pork Poultry Milk
  6. 6. Gains in meat consumption in developing countries are outpacing those of developed 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 1980 1990 2002 2015 2030 2050 Million metric tonnes developing developed Increases not because of overconsumption! EU average 2016 = 69 kg/capita SSA average 2016 = 8 kg/capita
  7. 7. Demand for livestock commodities in developing economies will be met—presenting new opportunities Trade opportunities Meeting livestock demand by importing livestock products New business and input supply opportunities Meeting livestock demand by importing livestock industrial production know-how Development opportunities and new markets Meeting livestock demand by transforming smallholder livestock systems
  8. 8. Livestock Sector Opportunities and Challenges
  9. 9. Agenda 2030’s Sustainable Development Goals • Livestock contribute indirectly to all 17 of the SDGs and directly to at least 8 of the goals. • Negative press about, and low investments in, livestock development jeopardize Agenda 2030.
  10. 10. Agenda 2030’s Sustainable Development Goals • Livestock contribute indirectly to all 17 of the SDGs and directly to at least 8 of the goals. • Negative press about, and low investments in, livestock development jeopardize Agenda 2030.
  11. 11. Finding Solutions Science Partnership Investment
  12. 12. Livestock can help mitigate rather than escalate key global challenges • Environment o Livestock production accounts for 14% total GHG emissions • Health o Controlling emerging infectious diseases costs USD6.7 billion annually o Antimicrobial resistance: a potential cost of 10 million lives per year and a cumulative risk to USD100 trillion of economic output by 2050 o Less than one third of the global population is well-nourished, 30% consume too much with an economic cost of healthcare of USD2 trillion • Peace and security o There were 247 million migrants in 2015 – a three fold increase from 50 years earlier • Animal rights o A vociferous anti-livestock message can have deleterious consequences for development
  13. 13. Big opportunities for livestock-health to address antimicrobial resistance A ‘3R’ approach to supporting rational drug use in developing countries: Reduce: policy, regulatory and market incentives Replace: vaccines, resistance in breeds Refine: practices in animal husbandry and biosecurity Partnerships: • Collaboration between countries and sectors (health-livestock- environment) is essential • WHO-OiE-FAO: Global Action Plan on AMR • Needed: research partnership Investment: • For USD9 billion per annum investment: o USD10-27 trillion global benefits 2017-2050
  14. 14. 13 zoonoses sicken 2.4 billion people, kill 2.2 million people and affect more than 1 in 7 livestock each year Controlling (zoonotic) livestock diseases stops their transmission to humans
  15. 15. Big opportunities for livestock-health to reduce the threat of pandemic disease events • Better animal disease surveillance, one-health and ‘herd health’ could save billions by addressing disease outbreaks in animals rather than people as timely ‘sentinels’ • A global investment of US$25 billion over 10 years in One Health could generate benefits worth at least US$125 billion
  16. 16. Big opportunities for livestock-environment • Productivity ‘win-win’ o 63% reduction on carbon footprint per unit of milk in US over 60 years through better productivity o Potential for similar solutions in south Asia to reduce GHG emissions in the dairy sector by 38% • Obtain accurate livestock GHG emission figures o Support developing-country-led solutions to climate change as specified in nationally appropriate mitigation actions (NAMAs). • New science: o ‘low carbon’ cows? o Rumen manipulation? • Livestock’s essential role in a robust bio-economy: o Optimal and balanced use of biomass.
  17. 17. Production of the greenhouse gas methane falls as animal productivity rises
  18. 18. Nutritional divides among 7 billion people today Hungry people stunted children insufficient nutrients overweight/obese balanced diets Healthcare for obesity economic cost: $2 trillion 11% of GNP lost annually in Africa and Asia from poor nutrition Less than one third well fed and nourished Meat consumption average 2016 EU = 69 kg/capita SSA = 8 kg/capita
  19. 19. Big opportunities for livestock development to contribute to solving migration Migration • Half the 247 million migrants are under the age of 18 • 65% are in developed economies • Numbers are growing at 3% annually since 2000 • 80% come from developing economies seeking jobs and opportunities Increasing % unemployed
  20. 20. Conclusions Grasping opportunities together
  21. 21. Total official development assistance (ODA) disbursements in 2014 were USD165 billion 0 20000 40000 60000 80000 100000 120000 140000 160000 180000 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 ODA Agric Livestock Source OECD
  22. 22. ODA disbursements to agriculture’s (huge) livestock subsector are dramatically less than warranted 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5 5 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 agric as % ODA Livestock as % agric Livestock as % ODA Source OECD
  23. 23. Working together • Keep the messages nuanced Strong voices (of the North) must not drown out the often contrasting roles of livestock in developing economies • Support partnerships and initiatives that connect across and beyond the livestock sector • Invest in livestock (research, development) to tackle–not ignore–challenges with evidence- based solutions
  24. 24. Working smart ‘Meat consumption in moderate quantities is important not only for human health but also for the health of the planet. . . . ‘A climate-smart and nutrition-smart food production for the almost ten billion people that will live on our planet is feasible if animals are included. ‘To become vegan to save the world may seem laudable, but it is not as smart as consuming meat in small quantities to use the planet’s full ecological potential.’ —Louise Fresco, 2017
  25. 25. This presentation is licensed for use under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International Licence. better lives through livestock ilri.org ILRI thanks all donors and organizations who globally supported its work through their contributions to the CGIAR system Thank you!
  26. 26. Various sources: BMGF, FAO and ILRI Smallholders still dominate livestock production in many countries Region (definition of ‘smallholder’) % production by smallholder livestock farms Beef Chicken meat Sheep/goat meat Milk Pork Eggs East Africa (≤ 6 milking animals) 60–90 Bangladesh (< 3ha land) 65 77 78 65 77 India (< 2ha land) 75 92 92 69 71 Vietnam (small scale) 80 Philippines (backyard) 50 35
  27. 27. Livestock sector transitions that matter • Small-scale, largely family-run subsistence farming to … medium-scale profitable livestock enterprises. • Inefficient production mixing crops with livestock to … sustainable intensification (not industrialization) of these well- integrated mixed crop-livestock systems. • Informal, unregulated traditional markets to … thriving, safe livestock markets for all. • Separate developed- & developing-country worlds to … interconnected worlds with complementary strategies: • Shared commitments to Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). • New trade and business opportunities • Joint agendas for global challenges: pandemics, AMR, climate change
  28. 28. Rangelands are a vast carbon sink Rangelands, covering up to 40% of the Earth’s surface, comprise a vast carbon sink With moderate livestock grazing and good management, Africa’s rangelands alone could sequester 8.6 million tonnes of carbon each year
  29. 29. Partnerships to maximise livestock- environment opportunities Germany-World Bank-ILRI: Re-calibrating emissions in developing countries: VERY different to developed Livestock Research Group Focused on reducing the emissions intensity of livestock production systems and increasing the quantity of carbon stored in soils supporting those systems.
  30. 30. Animal-source foods: essential nutrition Animal source foods (ASFs) provide people with: • 28% of their protein • Vitamins including B12, (available only in ASFs) • Key minerals such as calcium, iron, zinc, iodine • Consuming just 1 egg a day for 6 months reduces stunting in children • Animal source foods essential during first 1000 days of life
  31. 31. Big opportunities for livestock development to contribute to solving migration Income–employment • 1.3 billion people worldwide supported by livestock • Over 2 million supported by milk-based enterprises in Kenya (12% of adult workforce) • Major opportunities for youth and women in new service provision and small-medium enterprises
  32. 32. Balanced messages about livestock to ensure opportunities for global development, markets and trade are not threatened Demand for livestock commodities: • Rising exponentially in developing countries • But: stagnant in developed countries Emission of greenhouse gases: • Fourteen percent arises from livestock production • But: presents win-win opportunities to mitigate Animal source foods: • May contribute to obesity and non-communicable disease • But: are an essential source of nutrition Livestock production enterprises: • May support a few large enterprises in developing countries • But: are a source of livelihoods for three-quarters of a billion Global economic development: • Livestock contributes a global average of 40% agricultural GDP • But: receives limited investment (ODA)
  33. 33. Livestock and the global economy On average, livestock make up 40% of the world’s agricultural GDP • Here in Germany, that percentage is 60% Investments in the livestock sector are not commensurate with: • Livestock’s role in the economies of both developed and developing nations • Livestock’s potential to address major global challenges, e.g: o Environmental protection o Public health o Youth employment o Peace and security o Animal welfare

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