1.
Livestock and resilient future food systems:
Developing countries and global perspectives
Jimmy Smith, Director General
International Livestock Research Institute, Kenya
Meeting of the Agricultural Chief Scientists of G20 States (MACS)
14 November 2017

2.
CGIAR: Science for a food-secure future
15 research centres working in more than 70 countries
ILRI’s Mission
Improve food and nutritional security and reduce poverty in developing countries
through research for efficient, safe and sustainable use of livestock—
ensuring better lives through livestock

3.
Livestock commodities
Demand
Supply
and
Transition

4.
Global commodity values: On average,
animal-source foods make up 5 of the top 10
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
Rice, paddy Milk, whole
fresh cow
Meat, pig Maize Wheat Meat,
chicken
Meat, cattle Potatoes Eggs, hen, in
shell
Sugar cane
Current million USD
(average values 2005-2014; animal source foods: USD 825 billion)

5.
0
50
100
150
200
250
E.Asia
Pacific
China
South
Asia
SSA
High
income
% growth in demand for livestock products
2000–2030
5
0
50
100
150
200
250
E.Asia
Pacific
China
South
Asia
SSA
High
income
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
E.Asia
Pacific
China
South
Asia
SSA
High
income
0
50
100
150
200
250
E.Asia
Pacific
China
South
Asia
SSA
High
income
Estimates of the % growth in demand for animal source foods in different World regions, comparing 2005 and 2030.
Estimates were developed using the IMPACT model, courtesy Dolapo Enahoro, ILRI.
Beef Pork
Poultry Milk

6.
Gains in meat consumption in developing
countries are outpacing those of developed
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
1980 1990 2002 2015 2030 2050
Million
metric
tonnes
developing
developed
Increases not because of overconsumption!
EU average 2016 = 69 kg/capita
SSA average 2016 = 8 kg/capita

7.
Demand for livestock commodities in developing
economies will be met—presenting new opportunities
Trade opportunities
Meeting livestock demand by
importing livestock products
New business and input supply opportunities
Meeting livestock demand by
importing livestock industrial production know-how
Development opportunities and new markets
Meeting livestock demand by
transforming smallholder livestock systems

8.
Livestock Sector
Opportunities
and
Challenges

9.
Agenda 2030’s Sustainable Development Goals
• Livestock contribute indirectly to all 17
of the SDGs and directly to at least 8 of the goals.
• Negative press about, and low investments in,
livestock development jeopardize Agenda 2030.

10.
Agenda 2030’s Sustainable Development Goals
• Livestock contribute indirectly to all 17
of the SDGs and directly to at least 8 of the goals.
• Negative press about, and low investments in,
livestock development jeopardize Agenda 2030.

11.
Finding Solutions
Science
Partnership
Investment

12.
Livestock can help mitigate
rather than escalate key global challenges
• Environment
o Livestock production accounts for 14% total GHG emissions
• Health
o Controlling emerging infectious diseases costs USD6.7 billion annually
o Antimicrobial resistance: a potential cost of 10 million lives per year and a
cumulative risk to USD100 trillion of economic output by 2050
o Less than one third of the global population is well-nourished, 30%
consume too much with an economic cost of healthcare of USD2 trillion
• Peace and security
o There were 247 million migrants in 2015 – a three fold increase from 50
years earlier
• Animal rights
o A vociferous anti-livestock message can have deleterious consequences for
development

13.
Big opportunities for livestock-health
to address antimicrobial resistance
A ‘3R’ approach to supporting rational drug use in developing
countries:
Reduce: policy, regulatory and market incentives
Replace: vaccines, resistance in breeds
Refine: practices in animal husbandry and biosecurity
Partnerships:
• Collaboration between countries and sectors (health-livestock-
environment) is essential
• WHO-OiE-FAO: Global Action Plan on AMR
• Needed: research partnership
Investment:
• For USD9 billion per annum investment:
o USD10-27 trillion global benefits 2017-2050

14.
13 zoonoses sicken 2.4 billion people, kill 2.2 million people
and affect more than 1 in 7 livestock each year
Controlling (zoonotic) livestock diseases
stops their transmission to humans

15.
Big opportunities for livestock-health
to reduce the threat of pandemic disease events
• Better animal disease surveillance, one-health and ‘herd health’ could save
billions by addressing disease outbreaks in animals rather than people as timely
‘sentinels’
• A global investment of US$25 billion over 10 years in One Health could generate
benefits worth at least US$125 billion

16.
Big opportunities for
livestock-environment
• Productivity ‘win-win’
o 63% reduction on carbon footprint per unit of milk in US over
60 years through better productivity
o Potential for similar solutions in south Asia to reduce GHG
emissions in the dairy sector by 38%
• Obtain accurate livestock GHG emission figures
o Support developing-country-led solutions to climate change as
specified in nationally appropriate mitigation actions (NAMAs).
• New science:
o ‘low carbon’ cows?
o Rumen manipulation?
• Livestock’s essential role in a robust bio-economy:
o Optimal and balanced use of biomass.

17.
Production of the greenhouse gas methane
falls as animal productivity rises

18.
Nutritional divides among 7 billion people today
Hungry people
stunted children
insufficient
nutrients
overweight/obese
balanced diets
Healthcare for
obesity economic
cost: $2 trillion
11% of GNP lost
annually in Africa
and Asia from
poor nutrition
Less than one
third well fed and
nourished
Meat consumption average 2016
EU = 69 kg/capita
SSA = 8 kg/capita

19.
Big opportunities for livestock development to
contribute to solving migration
Migration
• Half the 247 million migrants are under the age of 18
• 65% are in developed economies
• Numbers are growing at 3% annually since 2000
• 80% come from developing economies seeking jobs and
opportunities
Increasing %
unemployed

20.
Conclusions
Grasping opportunities together

21.
Total official development assistance (ODA)
disbursements in 2014 were USD165 billion
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
160000
180000
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
ODA Agric Livestock
Source OECD

22.
ODA disbursements to agriculture’s (huge) livestock
subsector are dramatically less than warranted
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
4.5
5
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
agric as % ODA Livestock as % agric Livestock as % ODA
Source OECD

23.
Working together
• Keep the messages nuanced
Strong voices (of the North) must not drown out
the often contrasting roles of livestock in
developing economies
• Support partnerships and initiatives that connect
across and beyond the livestock sector
• Invest in livestock (research, development) to
tackle–not ignore–challenges with evidence-
based solutions

24.
Working smart
‘Meat consumption in moderate quantities is important not only for
human health but also for the health of the planet. . . .
‘A climate-smart and nutrition-smart food production
for the almost ten billion people that will live on our
planet is feasible if animals are included.
‘To become vegan to save the world may seem laudable, but it is not
as smart as consuming meat in small quantities to use the planet’s
full ecological potential.’
—Louise Fresco, 2017

25.
This presentation is licensed for use under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International Licence.
better lives through livestock
ilri.org
ILRI thanks all donors and organizations who globally supported its work through their contributions
to the CGIAR system
Thank you!

26.
Various sources:
BMGF, FAO and ILRI
Smallholders still dominate
livestock production in many countries
Region
(definition of
‘smallholder’)
% production by smallholder livestock farms
Beef Chicken
meat
Sheep/goat
meat
Milk Pork Eggs
East Africa
(≤ 6 milking
animals)
60–90
Bangladesh
(< 3ha land)
65 77 78 65 77
India
(< 2ha land)
75 92 92 69 71
Vietnam
(small scale)
80
Philippines
(backyard)
50 35

27.
Livestock sector transitions that matter
• Small-scale, largely family-run subsistence farming to …
medium-scale profitable livestock enterprises.
• Inefficient production mixing crops with livestock to …
sustainable intensification (not industrialization) of these well-
integrated mixed crop-livestock systems.
• Informal, unregulated traditional markets to …
thriving, safe livestock markets for all.
• Separate developed- & developing-country worlds to …
interconnected worlds with complementary strategies:
• Shared commitments to Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).
• New trade and business opportunities
• Joint agendas for global challenges: pandemics, AMR, climate change

28.
Rangelands are a vast carbon sink
Rangelands, covering up to 40% of the Earth’s surface,
comprise a vast carbon sink
With moderate livestock grazing and good management,
Africa’s rangelands alone could sequester
8.6 million tonnes of carbon each year

29.
Partnerships to maximise livestock-
environment opportunities
Germany-World Bank-ILRI:
Re-calibrating emissions in
developing countries:
VERY different to
developed
Livestock Research Group
Focused on reducing the emissions
intensity of livestock production systems
and increasing the quantity of carbon
stored in soils supporting those systems.

30.
Animal-source foods: essential nutrition
Animal source foods (ASFs) provide
people with:
• 28% of their protein
• Vitamins including B12,
(available only in ASFs)
• Key minerals such as calcium,
iron, zinc, iodine
• Consuming just 1 egg a day for
6 months reduces stunting in
children
• Animal source foods essential
during first 1000 days of life

31.
Big opportunities for livestock development to
contribute to solving migration
Income–employment
• 1.3 billion people worldwide supported by livestock
• Over 2 million supported by milk-based enterprises in Kenya
(12% of adult workforce)
• Major opportunities for youth and women in new service
provision and small-medium enterprises

32.
Balanced messages about livestock to ensure opportunities
for global development, markets and trade are not
threatened
Demand for livestock commodities:
• Rising exponentially in developing countries
• But: stagnant in developed countries
Emission of greenhouse gases:
• Fourteen percent arises from livestock production
• But: presents win-win opportunities to mitigate
Animal source foods:
• May contribute to obesity and non-communicable disease
• But: are an essential source of nutrition
Livestock production enterprises:
• May support a few large enterprises in developing countries
• But: are a source of livelihoods for three-quarters of a billion
Global economic development:
• Livestock contributes a global average of 40% agricultural GDP
• But: receives limited investment (ODA)

33.
Livestock and the global economy
On average, livestock make up 40%
of the world’s agricultural GDP
• Here in Germany, that percentage is 60%
Investments in the livestock sector
are not commensurate with:
• Livestock’s role in the economies
of both developed and developing nations
• Livestock’s potential to address major global challenges, e.g:
o Environmental protection
o Public health
o Youth employment
o Peace and security
o Animal welfare