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Kevin beyond theschlockofthenew_feb2015
This document appears to be a slide presentation on future trends and strategy. It discusses developing strategy by looking backwards from the future and outlines several approaches to conducting trend analysis and future forecasting, including taking a long view, understanding sociological drivers of change, looking beneath surface patterns, and considering multiple perspectives. It also presents examples of analyzing specific trends like "perpetual contact" and categorizing trends into frameworks of meta, macro, and micro levels. The overall messages seem to be around the importance of thorough trend analysis and understanding context when developing strategic plans.
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Kevin beyond theschlockofthenew_feb2015
- 1. Title Final presentation 00 XXX2014 Beyond the Schlock of the New Kevin McCullagh 28 January 2015
- 2. Slide 2 ‘Strategy mustbe created from the future backwards.’ Gary Hamel 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Introduction Strategy from the future backwards
- 3. Slide 3Section Title 1line Introduction The future is hazy
- 4. Core message Slide 4Introduction ‘Nevermake forecasts – especially about the future’ Sam Goldwyn Cynicism
- 6. Title Subtitle Future is tooimportant to be left to charlatans ‘The future is part of every designer’s job description.’ Mark Newson Introduction
- 7. Slide 7 Foresight Introduction Being ‘prescient aboutthe size and shape of tomorrow’s opportunities’
- 8. Slide 8 Foresight Introduction Being ‘prescient aboutthe size and shape of tomorrow’s opportunities’ by building an ‘assumption base about the future’
- 9. Slide 9 Foresight Introduction Being ‘prescient aboutthe size and shape of tomorrow’s opportunities’ by building an ‘assumption base about the future’ based on ‘deep insights into the trends.’ Gary Hamel C.K. Prahalad, ‘Competing for the Future’, 1994
- 10. Slide 10 Foresight Introduction Makes senseof a world in flux Situates strategy within a future context
- 11. Slide 11 Foresight Introduction Makes senseof a world in flux Situates strategy within a future context But’s it’s not about predicting the future.
- 12. Slide 12Section Slide12Introduction Trends provide reference points in a future context
- 14. Beyond the schlockof the new Slide 14 Frame and focus Take a long and wide view Put sociology before technology Get under the surface Be an informed contrarian Have a point of view Track and tack
- 15. Slide 15Section Title 1line Frame and focus What’s relevant ... and why
- 16. Slide 16 Trends wetrack Frame and focus Social, Economic, Technological Design Society TechnologyEconomy
- 17. Slide 17Frame andfocus SET trends Notable Social, Economic and Technological dynamics with potential influence on product and service innovation Social TechnologicalEconomic
- 18. Slide 18Frame andfocus 3 levels Meta trends High-level dynamics with wide influence across many Macro trends Economic stagnation Global interchange
- 19. Slide 19Frame andfocus 3 levels Polarised prosperity Meta trends High-level dynamics with wide influence across many Macro trends Macro trends Developments that transcend markets, sectors and demographics Austerity culture Urban renaissance Economic stagnation Global interchange
- 20. Slide 20Frame andfocus 3 levels Polarised prosperity Spaces of connection Latinisation Hyper-dense city cores Cycling surge Redefined town centres Creative cities Squeezed middle classes Boomers have the cash Lost generation Noveau Briche Space tourism Super-rich migration Access over ownership Micro enterprise Downsizing Housing shortage Small indulgences Returnment Meta trends High-level dynamics with wide influence across many Macro trends Macro trends Developments that transcend markets, sectors and demographics Micro trends Particular dynamics with specific impact on certain markets, sectors and demographics Austerity culture Urban renaissance Economic stagnation Global interchange
- 21. Slide 21Frame andfocus Meta trends High-level dynamics with wide influence across many Macro trends Global interchange A new interdependent phase of globalisation, in which influence flows in many directions Economic stagnation Slow growth and declining living standards Knowledge society Education, intelligence and creativity are more highly regarded Network society People learning how to leverage and negotiate an increasingly connected world Big data Benefits of being able to store, process and access huge amounts of information Cloud services Pervasive role of server-side data storage and processing Internet of things Networks of connected objects that sense and share information Climate anxiety A range of concerns around climate change Social fragmentation Breakdown of traditional social ties leading to individualisation Social TechnologicalEconomic
- 22. Slide 22Frame andfocus Macro trends Developments that transcend markets, sectors and demographics Perpetual contact Culture of fear Culture of emotions Polarised prosperity Urban renaissance Sustainability tensions Hardware revival Behaviour change Retail revolution Consumerisation of healthcare Learning diversity Austerity culture Labour imbalances Innovation imperative Productivity push Smart systems New conventions Ageing societies Search for authenticity Trust crisis
- 23. Slide 23Frame andfocus Micro trends Particular dynamics with specific impact on certain markets, sectors and demographics Housing shortage Micro enterprise Boomers have the cash Data security awareness Creative cities Corporate incubators Hybrid IT Integrated retail Brand cathedrals Access over ownership Smarter cities Presumers Cycling boom Redefined town centres Online education channels Civilian drones Optimised life Connected Car Simultaneous translation Behaviour sensing Child tracking Corporate backlash Medical tourism Moments of connection Human augmentation
- 24. Slide 24Frame andfocus Benefits Mapping different types of trends on a common framework helps us: – maintain a comprehensive helicopter view of future contexts – categorise all trends within a common framework – situate trends relative to each other Perpetual contact Culture of fear Culture of emotions Polarised prosperity Urban renaissance Sustainability tensions Hardware revival Behaviour change Retail revolution Consumerisation of healthcare Learning diversity Austerity culture Labour imbalances Innovation imperative Productivity push Smart systems New conventions Ageing societies Search for authenticity Trust crisis
- 25. Slide 25Frame andfocus Filter Society TechnologyEconomy Perpetual contact Perpetual contact Culture of fear Culture of emotions Polarised prosperity Urban rennaissance Sustainability tensions Hardware revival Behaviour change Retail revolution Consumerisation of healthcare Learning diversity Austerity culture Labour imbalances Innovation imperative Resource volatility Smart systems New conventions Ageing societies Search for authenticity Trust crisis Housing shortage Micro enterprise Boomers have the cash Data security awareness Creative cities Corporate incubators Hybrid IT Integrated retail Brand cathedrals Access over ownership Smarter cities Presumers Cycling boom Redefined town centres Online education channels Civilian drones Optimised life Connected Car Simultaneous translation Behaviour sensing Child tracking Corporate backlash Medical tourism Moments of connection Human augmentation Selection criteria Consumer focus Business relevance Inspiring
- 26. Slide 26Frame andfocus Design trend filtering Mobile relevance Trends potentially applicable to mobile handsets Mass consumer relevance Trends that could appeal to and be executed for budget conscious Indians Clustering Similar trends were combined Design workshop Trends that related to hot issues were prioritised 1 2 3 4
- 27. Beyond the schlockof the new Slide 27 Frame and focus Take a long and wide view Put sociology before technology Get under the surface Be an informed contrarian Have a point of view Track and tack
- 28. Influence Time Long term Slide 28Takea long and wide view Long waves
- 29. Influence Time Short term Long term Slide29Take a long and wide view Beware the fads
- 30. Slide 30Take along and wide view Design trend analysis Slide 46 Inhibitors Drivers Male / Female 200720062005 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Popularity Very clean, simple, high-tech and human. But a little cheap and not quite stylish enough. Needs an update – some colour would improve it. CiCi Jiang, Design Researcher, Asus, Shanghai Soft, human and popular. Always there and always will be. Hugo Caillerton, Founder, Sunlit Design, Guangzhou CMF is perceived as cheap Humanised technology Too simple in its purist form Simple and comfortable tech. A calm, simplified and usable expression of technology that is a little dull for some Relevance This trend is well suited to Nokia’s reduction design strategy and the wider shift to simplicity in China. It is seen as a simple expression of technology that is comfortable and easy use. However in its purest form it is seen by many as cheap, poor quality, simple and even dull. Evolution A well established trend in the West and Japan that is strongly associated with high design of British designer Jasper Morrison and his Japanese counterpart Naoto Fukasawa. The shift to understatement and the arrival of Apple in China in recent years has helped drive this trend mainstream in the last few years. Soft Minimalism Shift to simplicity Aspiration for Apple Apple iMac Motorola PEBL V6 Punkt DP01 (Jasper Morrison) Samsung SGH-E590 (Jasper Morrison) Apple iPhone 3G HTC Hero Apple MacBook Nice and simple forms which look comfortable and humane to touch. Josh Atkin, Head of Strategy, Jellymon Shanghai Additional expert quotes Slide 53 Inhibitors Drivers Male / Female Popularity 200720062005 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Strong personal expression Progressive associations Premium expression of techToo masculine Progressive and individual tech Pioneering and masculine language that expresses premium technology Relevance A trend that is well suited to a premium expression of technology. In its most overt form, it would be too aggressive for Nokia’s reduction design strategy. However dialled-down interpretations could work well. Its expressive aesthetic suits the need for Hyper Social to communicate personal style but it has strong masculine connotations. Plank, Miura stool Lamborghini, Murcialago Nokia, Prism HTC, Diamond Aava, Twist phone Feels very different and individual. Prof. Huang Qun, School of Art Design, University of technology, Wuhan Evolution With roots in early 20th century Futurism, this long wave niche trend is most evident in high-end furniture, homewares and transportation, most notably in Lamborghini’s recent range of supercars which arrived in China in 2006. While Nokia’s Prism and HTC’s Diamond exemplified the trend in mobile phones, there has been little recent application of the trend in the world of consumer electronics. Dynamic Futurism Very pioneering, sharp, strong and masculine. Will appeal to the guys who’ll like the edgy, sharp forms and the high-quality finish. Anonymous, Industrial and UX Designer, Lenovo, Beijing This has an edge! It is aggressive and masculine but still quite subtle and very high-tech. Tom Shi, Founder, Leaping Creative, Guangzhou Additional expert quotes
- 31. Slide 31Take along and wide view Hype cycle Peak of inflated Expectations Slope of enlightenment Plateau of productivity Time Visibility Technology trigger Trough of disillusionment
- 32. Slide 32Take along and wide view Hype cycle Valley of oblivionRavine of demise Time Visibility Peak of inflated Expectations Trough of disillusionment Slope of enlightenment Plateau of productivity Technology trigger
- 33. Slide 33Take along and wide view Tech is not inevitable
- 34. Change and continuity Take along and wide view
- 35. Slide 35 Users Experts Trends Market data Industrysector context Target market Multiple lens Take a long and wide view
- 36. Beyond the schlockof the new Slide 36 Frame and focus Take a long and wide view Put sociology before technology Get under the surface Get beyond the schlock of the new Be an informed contrarian Have a point of view Track and tack
- 37. Slide 37Put sociologybefore technology History or future?
- 38. Slide 38Put sociologybefore technology Technology is only one driver of the future
- 39. Slide 39Put sociologybefore technology Feminisation The rise and social impact of women
- 40. Slide 40Put sociologybefore technology Culture of fear Paradoxically, as people live longer and healthier lives, they feel more at risk. Social fragmentation has led to people feeling more isolated from each other and more suspicious of authorities. The resulting sense of insecurity reduces the ability to gain a rationale perspective of actual risk levels. Fear is experienced on many fronts. Health panics are a regular occurrence, from mad cow disease to swine flu. Dread of Islamic terrorism, nuclear disaster or extreme weather, indicate that fear has replaced hope as a dominant force in many societies. Governments have adopted the worst case thinking ‘precautionary principle’, which amounts to a ‘better safe than sorry’ approach to life. Mokhtar Belmokhtar who claimed responsibility Algeria hostage crisis in January 2013 Related micro trends Emerging Cyber security Growing Islamophobia Extreme weather anxiety Nuclear paralysis Cash hoarding Anti-globalisation Data security awareness Declinism Maturing Safety consciousness Declining GM food panic Macro trend Also called: Risk society
- 41. Core message Slide 41Putsociology before technology We shape technology and technology shapes us Beware technological determinism
- 42. Beyond the schlockof the new Slide 42 Frame and focus Take a long and wide view Put sociology before technology Get under the surface Get beyond the schlock of the new Be an informed contrarian Have a point of view Track and tack
- 43. Slide 43 Beyond patternrecognition Get under the surface Once is an accident
- 44. Slide 44 Beyond patternrecognition Get under the surface Once is an accident Twice is a coincidence
- 45. Slide 45 Beyond patternrecognition Get under the surface Once is an accident Twice is a coincidence Three times is a trend!
- 46. Slide 46 Beyond patternrecognition Get under the surface Once is an accident Twice is a coincidence Three times is a trend! OK, but why?
- 47. Perpetual contact Dynamicsdrivers and effects DRIVERS EFFECTS Perpetual contact Wider and shallow social networks Mobile technology Real-time life management Contingent relations (driver) There is a tendency to keep options open, as less emphasis is put on committing to a decision. Wider and shallow social networks (driver) People tend to keep in touch with a larger group of contacts, but spend less ‘quality time’ with any of them. Focus on time use (driver) People increasingly feel that they are ‘running out of time’. Mobile technology (driver) The evolution of mobile technologies like Location Based Services (LBS) and Bluetooth will change the way we navigate cities and use phones in vehicles. The new phone booth (effect) Time spent in the car = telephone hours. Drivers enjoy the privacy provided by the car and the privilege to make use of their ‘dead time’. Real-time life management (effect) People are moving towards managing their life ‘on the go’. They use their phone to manage time and space, in a flux of constant interruptions and feedback. More face2face meetings (effect) Mobile phone use tends to generate more meetings. Contingent relations The new phone booth More face2face meetings Focus on time use
- 48. Slide 48Get underthe surface Analysis
- 49. Beyond the schlockof the new Slide 49 Frame and focus Take a long and wide view Put sociology before technology Get under the surface Be an informed contrarian Have a point of view Track and tack
- 50. Trends 10 Trends forEurope in 2010 Though they have effects which are indirect, the Four Megatrends are actually very strong and reinforce each other.The Six Trends will have a more focused impact. Modernisation The old guard will be replaced by a younger generation Globalisation Everyday life and work will become more international Risk + Fragmentation – Trust = Ethics A growing sensitivity to risk and social fragmentation, combined with a crisis of trust, will make Europeans want Ethics A Rich Techno-culture Wealth, together with their own kinds ofTechnology, will help Europeans preserve their historic Culture 24-hour Society There will be more round-the-clock working and living Work-life Balance The relationship between work and the rest of life will change in response to concern over Europe’s long working hours Learning to be Flexible Europeans will move from a job for life to lifelong learning and ‘portfolio’ careers Car seen as a Problem While demand for mobility will increase, policies for transport and cities will aim to fight traffic congestion Friends are preferred to Family Friends will replace family as the main support network In search of Authenticity Reacting to the commercialisation of everyday life, Europeans will seek authentic experiences Europe 2010
- 51. In search ofAuthenticity | Drivers Marketisation of everyday life As everything becomes a commodity, so European consumers will go in quest for something special, motivating – even spiritual. ‘I am not a target market’ Increasingly aware of the ‘saturation marketing’ targeted at them in ever more subtle ways, European consumers will express resistance.Youth, in particular values things found by ‘word of mouth’, or and by being ‘in the know’. If something is mass-marketed, everyone knows about it – so it may be rejected. Trust crisis Honesty, trust and directness are perceived to be rare (See Trust section of the Megatrend: Risk + Fragmentation - Trust = Ethics).These things are therefore also seen as precious. WOEurope 2010
- 53. Beyond the schlockof the new Slide 53 Frame and focus Take a long and wide view Put sociology before technology Get under the surface Be an informed contrarian Have a point of view Track and tack
- 54. Dual Colour Warm Metal LightFollows Form Pastel Accents Layered Tones Tonal Families Tonal Greys Pastels Blocked Dark Sumptuous ... Lux Matte Black Reflected Diffusion Real Material Com. Light Wood Charcoal Square Weave Tonal Textures Gradients White Wood Wood Black Uber Matte Nude Tones White Gold Gold Black Romantic Hues Crystal Detailing Browns Coppers Cork Concrete Mono Colour Block Primaries Bright Blocks Transparency Hue Tinted Transparency Primary Accents Matte Rubber ... White Exaggerated Details Wires Pop Dots Perforated Pattern Macro Repetition Quilted Pixilation Variable Wave Faceted Cubism Protective Pattern Pleated Surface Granular Montage Patterned Colour Dimple Organic Petal Floral Motif Decorative Array Decorative Lines Surface Pattern Micro Repetition Micro Metal Tactility Mechanic Splice Transition Crisp Cutaways Sequential Lines Smooth Transition Fluid Wrap Organic Maximlism Extravagant Organic Smart Organic Truncated Solids Layered Skin Restrained OrganicPillowed Purity Soft Swell Frame Tapered Trapesium Internal Glow High Tech Pops Bold Bodies Contrasting Com. Casual Modularity Soft Utility Emphasised Feat... Object Outline Long Life Design Delight Humour Modern Craft Senseware Pop Cute Natural Life Manga Effects... Creature Features Olympic Pattern Urban Angst Modern Heritage Heritage Hybrid Chinese Retro Architectural Com.. Soft Minimalism Cool Minimalism Organic Minimalism Sleek Tech Retro Modern Retro Futurism Tough Technical Vibrant Minimalism Emotional Exp. Slide 54 Serious Playful Elaborate Simple Craft Utility Futurism Minimalism Naturals Pop Expressive Have a point of view Trends Rarely concur
- 55. Beyond the schlockof the new Slide 55 Frame and focus Take a long and wide view Put sociology before technology Get under the surface Be an informed contrarian Have a point of view Track and tack
- 56. Slide 56 Infrastructure /Legislation Technology Autonomous vehicles 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 Smart watches Some will introduce features that interface with cars Level 2 At least two controls can be automated in unison, such as adaptive cruise control in combination with lane keeping. Level 3 The driver can fully cede control of all safety-critical functions in certain conditions. The car senses when conditions require the driver to retake control and provides a ‘sufficiently comfortable transition time’ for the driver to do so. Level 4 Fully driverless cars maybe available but not affordable Crossrail Services will begin in May 2015 between Liverpool Street and Shenfield and will be extended to other parts of the route during 2018 and 2019 Ultra Low Emissions Zone TfL proposal to limit road vehicles during business hours in central London to be zero or low emissions Weekend night tube From September 2015, Jubilee, Victoria and most of the Piccadilly, Central and Northern tube lines will run all night on Fridays and Saturdays. Contactless payment Mass adoption as readers are more widely rolled out and RFID is integrated into phones and smart watches Connected cars Cars with internet connection deeply integrated into driver and passenger experience iBeacons Bluetooth LE devices that aid accuracy of indoor positioning and local notifications 5G networks Fifth generation of mobile networks that will deliver dramatically faster connection speeds Track and tack Future context Assumptions about developments that could influence the development of the service
- 57. Slide 57 Wise words Trackand tack ‘hold strong opinions weakly… If you must forecast then forecast often – and be the first to prove yourself wrong.’ Paul Saffo
- 58. We join thedots @kevinmccull www.plan.london
- 59. Car seen asa problem | Drivers Europe 2010 More cars, making more journeys: infrastructure struggles to keep up Nearly every European wants a car. But more and more Europeans don’t want other people to drive a car near them. More work on the move Through the mobile phone, and other devices work will be more integrated with transport – including road transport.With cars, however, Risk consciousness will ensure that the working driver is regarded as a menace. Congestion is regulated in the name of ethics Though cars hardly have souls, their use is more and more regarded as unethical. The state will step in to protect motorists from themselves. WO