Introduction and mobility survey slides from the Plan Forum on the Future of Urban Mobility, in partnership with Bloomberg New Energy Finance. London, 15th March 2016

1. Forum
Uber, car clubs and driverless cars:
The end of the road for
urban car ownership?
#PlanFrm
@BloombergNEF
@planstrategic
Chair: Kevin McCullagh
Founder, Plan
Panelist: Debbie Nathan
Head of Consumer
Research, Plan
Panelist: Colin McKerracher
Head of Advanced Transport,
Bloomberg New Energy Finance
Panelist: Timandra Harkness
Co-presenter of
FutureProofing, Radio 4
Panelist: Oliver Le Grice
former Chief Designer
Advanced Design, Land Rover
Speaker: Lars Hesselgren
Director Research
PLP Architecture

2. 16:30 Introduction
16:40 Highlights from Plan’s urban mobility survey
16:50 Opening remarks from panelists
17:00 Chaired discussion
17:35 Preview of an urban infrastructure concept
17:45 QA
18:30 Drinks

3. Title
Final presentation
00 XXX 2014
Setting the scene
Kevin McCullagh

4. Cars used to be an unalloyed good

5. Richer mobility
service ecosystem
New mobility modes
Multi-modal apps
Seamless payments
2003
London congestion
charging begins
2004
ZipCar
launches
1980s
High occupancy vehicle
lanes in the USA
1982
Athens Ring
Odd/Even system
2014
London congestion nears
pre-charging levels
2020
Paris to ban
diesel cars
2010
Boris Bike
scheme launched
2034
Hamburg to ban
cars from centre
2030
Helsinki eliminates
private-car ownership
2040
DfT expects 25%
increase in traffic
since 2015
Squeeze on car use
Higher parking costs
Congestion charging
Lower speed limits
Traffic-calming measures
Stricter emission laws
No-car developments
Limited car zones
The long squeeze
and alternatives

6. 2km1km 5km 10km 15km+
Costandconvenience
(Price / Comfort / Flexibility / Speed)
Bus
Scooter
Tram
Taxi
Minicab
Walk
Luxury
chauffeur
Metro
Bike
Typical urban
journey length
Private car
Dynamic minibus
Uses data to determine
routes and offer point
to point pick-ups and
drop-offs, e.g. Bridj
Mobility services
Hailable
mini cab
Mini cab that can be hailed
with an app, e.g. Uber
Action
zone
Motorbike
Multi-
modal
payment
Taxi
hailing
apps
Parking
services
Multi-
modal
planner
Navigation
P2P
car sharing
Car owners rent their
cars directly to other
consumers, e.g. RelayRides
Free-
floating
car sharing
Cars are collected from and
returned to, any parking
space within a pre-defined
area, e.g. DriveNow
Shared
Scooter
Shared
bike
Micro
car sharing
For smaller (typically 3-5)
pre-determined groups
of users, e.g. Audi Unite
Point-to-point
car sharing Back-to-base
car sharing
e-bike
Bicycle with integrated
electrical motor for
propulsion, e.g. GoCycle
There are more alternatives
to car ownership now

7. Title 1 line
UK car sales
1.75m
2007 2009 2011 2013 2015
1.85m
1.95m
2.05m
2.15m
2.25m
2.35m
2.45m
2.55m
2.65m
+57%Forecasted rise in global
car sales by 2030
Euromonitor, 2015
But cars have never
been so popular

8. TFL, Travel in London: Report 8 (2015)
The car is London’s
popular form of transport Car
Bus/Tr
am
Walk
Tube
R
ail
Other
35%
14%
12%
20%
24%
5%
Modes
share of daily
journeys

9. 54% of households
have at least one car
TFL, ‘Roads Task Force – Technical Note 12: How many cars are there in London and who owns them?’ (2013)
Most London households
have a car

10. 40% of UK’s gridlock
is in London PRNewsire, ‘Gridlock on UK Roads Costs the Country’s Economy £4.3 Billion’ (2012)
London is capital
of gridlock

11. Average time drivers
spent stuck in trafficFT, ‘London becomes Europe’s gridlock capital’ (2015)
London’s congestion is
getting worse ...
96hrs
2014
82hrs
2013

12. ... and London is growing
Mayor of London, ‘Mayor calls for new measures to secure the success of London's roads’ press release, February 2016
8.6m
2016
10 m
2030

13. 75% of Gen Y drivers
Young people still aspire
to own their own car
believe they are likely to be using
their own, personal car in 5 years time
GFK, ‘Gen Y Drivers Are Much More Likely to Embrace Connected Car Features’, January 2015 (US, UK, Germany, Brazil, Russia, and China)

14. Better public transport
isn’t always the answer
Tallin experiment
City gave its 430,000 residents free
access to public transport in an attempt
to get cars off the road, decrease
congestion and make the city more
accessible to low-income residents.
+1.2%increase in demand for the service overall
Fast Company, ‘Why The World’s Largest Experiment In Free Public Transportation Failed’, 2014

15. 1.
Will Londoners trade private
cars for on-demand access?
Thilo Koslowski, Creating Innovations in the Automotive and Smart Mobility Industry Primer for 2016, Gartner, January 2016
Gartner predicts that by 2020
10 % of today’s urban
vehicle owners will
replace them with
on-demand vehicle
access

16. 2.
Can ‘smart’ technology
squeeze more of
existing roads?

17. 3.
What are the options for
increasing road capacity?

18. 15 March 2016
Car ownership
alternatives
Survey results

19. Why do this research?
Decades of pressure on cars

20. Why do this research?
Decades of pressure on cars
Wide range of alternatives

21. Why do this research?
Decades of pressure on cars
Wide range of alternatives
But what do consumers think?

22. 3
Hunches

23. 3
Hunches
Most urban car
owners intend to
hang onto their
cars

24. 3
Hunches
Most urban car
owners intend to
hang onto their
cars
Electric vehicles
will make car
clubs more
attractive

25. 3
Hunches
Cheap and quality
minicabs might
see some ditching
their cars
Most urban car
owners intend to
hang onto their
cars
Electric vehicles
will make car
clubs more
attractive

26. What we did
Free fuel Free parking
FREE
Driving in
bus lanes
Car clubs
FREE
Mini cab prices
plunging

27. Who we spoke to
Where people live/work
n = 883
30%
19%
23%
28%
Zone 1
Zone 2
Zone 3-4
Zone 5-8
Car ownership / access status
57% 13% 4% 25%
Private car Someone elses car Car sharing No access
Age
12%
18-24
24%
25-34
25%
35-44
13%
45-54
17%
55-64
7%
65+

28. Younger people
are more likely to
consider a car club
Question: To what extent might you be interested in an alternative to
owning a private car for example a car for shared use?
% shown = people who answered 4 or 5 out of 5
where 5 = extremely interested
883 respondents, results are statistically significant
22%
18-44 yrs
11%
44+ yrs

29. People who have
access to a car
are more likely to
consider a car club
Question: To what extent might you be interested in an alternative to
owning a private car for example a car for shared use?
% shown = people who answered 4 or 5 out of 5
where 5 = extremely interested
883 respondents, results are statistically significant
23%
access
11%
own

30. People who live or
work in zones 1-4
are more likely to
consider a car club
Question: To what extent might you be interested in an alternative to
owning a private car for example a car for shared use?
% shown = people who answered 4 or 5 out of 5
where 5 = extremely interested
883 respondents, results are statistically significant
22%
zones 1-4
9%
zones 5-8

31. Question
What % of people would give up their car
in favour of car sharing alternatives?

32. What % of people
would give up
their car in favour
of car sharing
alternatives?
Question: To what extent might you be interested in an
alternative to owning a private car for example a car for
shared use? 509 respondents
10%
100%
0%

33. 11% of car owners
are very interested
in car sharing as an
alternative to their
own car
19%
70%
11%
Face
value
not at all
interested
neutral
very interested

34. What % of people
would give up
their car in favour
of car sharing
alternatives...
if they didn’t have
to pay for fuel?
Question: Would you give up your car or the idea of
owning a car, if you didn’t have to pay for fuel with this
shared car? 509 respondents
FREE
Free
fuel
Face
value
11%
not at all
interested
neutral
very interested

35. 23% of car owners
would definitely
give up their car
if a car club offered
them free fuel
FREE
22%
55%
23%
Free
fuel
Face
value
definitely
not
neutral
definitely

36. What % of people
would give up
their car in favour
of car sharing
alternatives...
if they could drive
in bus lanes?
Question: Would you give up your car or the idea
of owning a car, if this shared car were allowed in
bus lanes? 509 respondents
FREE
Bus
lanes
Free
fuel
Face
value
23%
definitely
not
neutral
definitely

37. 16% of car owners
would definitely
give up their car
if a car club car was
allowed in bus lanes
FREE
22%
55%
16%
Bus
lanes
Free
fuel
Face
value
definitely
not
neutral
definitely

38. What % of people
would give up
their car in favour
of car sharing
alternatives...
if parking
was free?
Question: Would you give up your car or the idea
of owning a car, if this shared car allowed you to
park for free across London? 509 respondents
FREE
FREE
Free
parking
Bus
lanes
Free
fuel
Face
value
16%
definitely
not
neutral
definitely

39. 31% of car owners
would definitely
give up their car
if a car club car
could park for free
FREE
FREE
31%
19%
50%
Free
parking
Bus
lanes
Free
fuel
Face
value
definitely
not
neutral
definitely

40. What % of people
would give up
their car
if Minicabs
halved in price?
Question: Would you give up your car or the idea
of owning a car, if minicabs/Uber were to half in price
(e.g. £4 for a 30 minute trip)? 509 respondents
FREE
FREE
Minicab
prices
Free
parking
Bus
lanes
Free
fuel
Face
value
31%
definitely
not
neutral
definitely

41. 24% of car owners
would definitely
give up their car
if minicabs were
to half in price
FREE
FREE
24%
22%
55%
Minicab
prices
Free
parking
Bus
lanes
Free
fuel
Face
value
definitely
not
neutral
definitely

42. What % of people
would give up
their car in favour
of alternatives?
Free
fuel
FREE
Face
value
Free
parking
FREE
Bus
lanes
Minicab
prices
22%
23%
55%
17%
19%
24%11%
59%
19%
31%
50%
18%
16%
66%70%definitely
not
neutral
definitely

43. Car owners Full sample
22%
23%
55%
17%
19%
24%11%
59%
19%
31%
50%
18%
16%
66%70%
26%
31%
43%
22%
25%
30%19%
48%
20%
40%
40%
25%
20%
55%57%
Interestingly,
similar
proportions
reflected
at the full
sample view
509 respondents 883 respondents
definitely not
neutral
definitely

44. To conclude
Most owners are not open to giving up their cars
Young londoners are more open to alternatives
Suburbanites are least open to giving up their cars
Car clubs with free parking are the most
attractive alternative
1
2
3
4

46. 3
Hunches
Cheap and quality
minicabs might
see some ditching
their cars
Most urban car
owners intend to
hang onto their
cars
Electric vehicles
will make car
clubs more
attractive

47. 3
Hunches
Most urban car
owners intend to
hang onto their
cars
Cheap and quality
minicabs might
see some ditching
their cars
Electric vehicles
will make car
clubs more
attractive

48. 3
Hunches
Most urban car
owners intend to
hang onto their
cars
Electric vehicles
will make car
clubs more
attractive
Cheap and quality
minicabs might
see some ditching
their cars

49. 3
Hunches
Cheap and quality
minicabs might
see some ditching
their cars
Most urban car
owners intend to
hang onto their
cars
Electric vehicles
will make car
clubs more
attractive

50. We join the dots
www.plan.london