Hogeschool gent 2016 publication

Using long-term trend assessment
in business strategy
@fdemeyer
frederic@i4fi.com
fredericdemeyer.com
Instituteforfutureinsights
fdemeyer

my background
my 20’s
my 30’s
my 40’s
my 50’s
helping you anticipate the future
???

I admit, I am a futurist…
But what does it mean?

"Airplanes are interesting toys but of no
military value."
Marshal Ferdinand Foch, Professor of Strategy, Ecole
Superieure de Guerre
“I think there is a world market for maybe
five computers”
Thomas Watson (IBM) 1943
“640k ought to be enough for anybody”
Bill Gates, 1981
…Seeing beyond the paradigm
is extremely difficult, but not
impossible…

Ways to assess the future
What it means for businesses
Which trends to follow?
Advise to (aspiring) trend watchers

Sophistication
Accuracy
Ways to assess the future
Frederic
De
Meyer
@
i4ﬁ

GUT
FEEL

…is this an indication of a trend
towards URBAN FARMING?

Sophistication
Accuracy
Ways to spot long-term
trends
Frederic
De
Meyer
@
i4ﬁ

GUT
FEEL

…mass customization is
spreading to many consumer
products…

…what if it would apply to other
industries?
Health Care Retail
Education Energy

BanksMusicPress
…what do we see?

BanksMusicPress
…we are witnessing a growing
trend to desintermediation…

Pa5ents
now
have
limitless
ways

to
be
as
knowledgeable
as
the

doctor

(mass)
Customiza5on

of
health
care

becomes
the
new
paradigm

Open
source
pharma
challenges
the
current

business
R&D
model

New
market
for
DIY
health

(9000
Apple
apps
for
personal
health

care)

…look at what is happening in
health care…

Patients now have limitless
ways to be as knowledgeable
as the doctor
(mass) Customization of health care
becomes the new paradigm
Open source pharma challenges the current
business R&D model
New market for DIYhealth
(9000Apple apps for personal
health care)
…the future? Health provision ‘as
a service’…

…the power of system thinking…

Sophistication
Accuracy
Ways to spot long-term
trends
Frederic
De
Meyer
@
i4ﬁ

GUT
FEEL

Sta5s5cal

certain5es

…Statistical certainty? Here is a
bold prediction…

…prepare for future threats…

Limited customer
dialogueProduct
focused
Branch
Separate
channels
Digital
Fast time
to market
Omni
channel
Customer
centric
Data
driven
Intuitive
apps
Real
time
…prepare for future threats…

…prepare for future
opportunities…

…align your business to the
future…

external
internal
new
competitors
new business
models
new needs of
customers
new customer
segments
new talents and
competencies
new marketing
mix
new
ecosystems
new go-to-
market models
new production
processes
megatrends!
…sharpen your strategy by
understanding these trends

#2 discuss Megatrends
internally
#3 draw conclusions
and recommendations
#4 Communicate results
internally and externally
#1 identify
Megatrends to discuss
Mega
trends

A way to assess these long-term
trends

one hurricane is not a trend, it’s an event...
an increasing number of hurricanes in the US
is a trend, not necessarily a megatrend
a worldwide increase in number and intensity of
hurricanes would be a megatrend
and the consequences might trigger new
(mega)trends
What are megatrends?

•  long-lasting (>10 years)
•  amplifying
•  cause disruptive shift
•  have a global impact
•  not prone to change of taste or mood, lobby

My ‘rules of thumb’

The power of exchanging views
and opinions

•  Demographic trends
–  Growing world population
–  Ageing population
–  Migration patterns
–  Urbanization
–  Gap rich-poor
–  Generation Y
–  Generation Z
–  War for talent
•  Environment and
sustainability
–  Climate change
–  Scarce resources
–  Peak oil
–  Water shortage
–  Food stress
–  Clean energy
–  Smart cities
–  Bio materials
–  New materials
–  Cradle-to-cradle
–  Biomimicry
–  Urban farming
–  Eco activism
–  New urban models
•  Geopolitical trends
–  Power shift
–  Globalization 3.0
–  Rising middle class
–  Energy dependence
–  The Market State
•  Consumer & societal trends
–  Mass customization
–  Ethical buying
–  ‘Buy local’
–  Social & Group buying
–  Personalization
–  Sharing economy
–  Radical transparency
–  Massive Open Online Courses
(MOOCs)
–  Personal Health
–  Digital divide
–  Virtual Currencies
–  Blockchain technology
–  New jobs
•  Technology trends
–  Big Data/ data science
–  Internet of Things (IoT)
–  Augmented Reality
–  Consumerization of IT (BYOD)
–  Technology ‘as a Service’
–  Home 3D printing
–  Business 3D printing
–  Drones for business
–  Bioprinting
–  Enhanced Humans
–  Wearable Technologies
•  Business trends
–  Life Cycle Assessment
–  Disintermediation
–  Crowdsourcing & funding
–  Open innovation
–  Gamification
–  Corporate Social Responsibility
(CSR)
–  Cause Marketing
–  Social Business Innovation
–  Social entrepreneurs
–  Intrapreneurship
–  Businesses get social
–  Holacracy
–  Business as a platform
–  Virtualization of the corporation

In 2008 climate change was responsible for 20M
migrants, on the long run this number will grow to
200M

A new golden age for materials: ‘smart’ material can heal
themselves, things can be built atom by atom, light materials
get stronger and stronger, …

Many architects are radically rethinking our urban models in
preparation of climate change
RETURN
TO MENU

Blockchain has the potential to decentralize and transform
transactions, making them more efficient, participative and
scalable

The worldwide 3D printer market will experience growth from
2012 to 2017, with compound annual growth rates of 59%
and 29%, respectively (IDC)

65% of current students will later be working in jobs that do
not exist yet

Teaser: what would be the advantage
if planes would land upside down?

On Amazon marketplace you
will often find (new) products at
a substantially lower price
compared to Amazon’s.
Cannibalization? Probably, even
if Amazon gets a commission on
each transaction. On the other
hand, this move has probably
limited the number of emerging
copycats of Amazon’s
business !

If your market is declining you
might as well sell directly to your
competitors… Peugeot’s Expert
vans will be sold as Toyotas as
from mid 2013, competing with
the same van… of Peugeot !
sell your products to your competitors, and let
them sell it under their brand…

Admittedly, ‘multibranding’ is
anything but new. Procter &
Gamble has used this technique
for years. But what if it was
applied to other industries?
Telecom operator KPN, for
instance, offers mobile services
through 5 different brands on
the Dutch market. No doubt this
comes at an additional cost.
That’s okay just as long as you
get a bigger piece of the pie…
(no guarantee though)
why not compete with yourself?

Most businesses will face
competition from new business
models developed by startups…
so why wouldn’t you embrace
them, by serving as an
incubator (the cheap way) or
invest in them in very early
stage (the risky way)?
you can invite your future competitors to join you!

In virtually every industry, agility
will be key to strengthen your
competitive position. Most likely
you will need to adapt your
organizational model (and your
culture, processes, employee
profiles, etc) in order to become
and remain agile. Easier said
than done, but vital
nevertheless…
Source:
agile2lean.blogspot.be

innovate your organisational model

www.fredericdemeyer.com
the age of platforms

Limited customer
dialogueProduct
focused
Branch
Separate
channels
Digital
Fast time
to market
Omni
channel
Customer
centric
Data
driven
Intuitive
apps
Real
time
the age of platforms

the age of intrapreneurship

#4: get efficient in researching
evidence

#5: look for patterns and links

#6: constantly ask yourself “what
does it mean?”

#7: build a (strong) opinion
•  “In 20 years we will all be freelancers”
•  “The role of government will become
obsolete in 50 years”
•  “Sustainable future will be driven by
population, not government(s)”

#8: communicate… extensively!
Write articles for media friends
+240K views
+900 downloads

Slideshare works
Blogs still work (for now)
Special mention…
Usual suspects

#9: look for role models (but
remain yourself)

#10: offer things for free
ü 
charity

ü 
non-‐proﬁt

ü 
audience
of
poten6al
clients

ü 
exis6ng
clients

ü 
conferences
I
would
have

paid
for
to
a<end

#11: but not everything…
60 Megatrend Fact Sheets
(briefing document for long-term planning and
innovation sessions)
@fdemeyer
frederic@i4fi.com
fredericdemeyer.com
Instituteforfutureinsights
fdemeyer

#12: be patient…
2 years
lead time

if you want revenue out of your efforts
…be patient

if you want glory out of your efforts
…don’t

after all…
…you’re having the best job on earth

www.i4ﬁ.com


@fdemeyer

addi6onal
ques6ons:
frederic@i4ﬁ.com

Thank
you!

If you are not ashamed looking back at
what you did 6 months ago, you’re doing
it wrong…
Don’t aim for control. If you think you
control your business, it means you’re
not going fast enough…
Don’t take any advise of people who
never been entrepreneurs themselves…
No matter what you do… have fun!

Hogeschool gent 2016 publication

More Related Content

What's hot

Similar to Hogeschool gent 2016 publication

More from Frederic De Meyer

Recently uploaded

Hogeschool gent 2016 publication