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Innovation and
Futures Thinking:
Are You Leading or Following?
@futurice @toastedric @mobile_rat @janevita
Who are we?
We create digital services
for people to love.
• Founded in 2000
• 200+ employees from 18 countries
• 8th year in a row profitable growth
• YOY growth 30%
Our toolbox
We build
delightful
digital services.
And help our
customers to succeed
in digital business.
• Analyzing business
• Feeling people
• Mastering technology
Using Future Thinking
in Concept Design
Foresight1.
FORESIGHT
Foreseeing the Future is the ability to forecast
what will be needed or is going to happen
in the future.
Source:    Raymond,  2010,  Finpro  
FORESIGHT IS NOT
- Predict the future

- Direct answers

- Market Research or Business Intelligence
Source:    Raymond,  2010,  Finpro  
FORESIGHT IS
- Combine familiar things in new ways

- Makes you question your own “truths”

- Inspire you to look from other angles

- Helps to understand broader concepts

- Helps the development of sustainable business

- Helps find new business opportunities
Source:    Raymond,  2010,  Finpro  
FORESIGHT IS
- Analyse the same date differently

- Identify patterns, similarities 

- Professional intuition based on experience

- Process today’s world to find tomorrow’s 

opportunities
Source:    Raymond,  2010,  Finpro  
Martin Raymond, The Future Laboratory
“Working with Futures Thinking is not trying to predict the future, or having
futuristic ideas. Futures Thinking is applying new and emergent cultural
changes, after mapping and projecting these changes in a way that other
people can understand and visualise them.”
WHERE ARE THEY?
- Internal Consultants

- Consultants and companies who offer
Future Research, Foresight Services and 

Trend Analysis
About Future
Thinking2.
Garlain, 2011
“There’s not a single future, but a whole spectrum of likely futures that
depend on numerous possibilities, depending on decisions…

…The aim is to shape our brains and strategic plans to be more flexible
when facing the inevitability of the future.”
Mannermaa, 2004
“The most important thing for Futurologists is presenting as many
alternatives and views as possible, they are the ones who will support the
decisions to be made. ”
Holistic & Multidisciplinary
Statistics
Economics
Politics
Social
Psychology
Philosophy
Culture
History
Antropology
Sociology
FUTURES

RESEARCH
Technology
Referência:  Aleksi  Neuvonen,  Demos  Helsinki.  Slideshare.  
DATA TREND
ANALYSIS
PATTERN
RECOGNITION
INTUITION IMAGINATION
A set of principles and practices that can be applied to solve complex
problems and to envision desirable and sustainable ways of action
+
Source:    Futures  thinking  process  by  Vanessa  Miemis
BIG DATA
TREND ANALYSIS
PATTERN RECOGNITION
INTUITION AND
IMAGINATION
An iterative process which helps you consider a range of possibilities,
probably and preferable outcomes
ASKING THE
QUESTION
SCANNING

THE WORLD
MAPPING
POSSIBILITIES
ASKING THE
NEXT QUESTION
Source:    Futures  thinking  process  by    Jamais  Cascio
Futurologists create expectations about the
people’s and world’s future. Their goal is to support
your efforts on shaping the future.
We can make more informed Business and Design
decisions by foreseeing the future
ADAPTIVE ROBUST TRANSFORMATIONAL
Futures Thinking develops the long-range outlook
DESIGN
FUTURE

THINKING
21st CENTURY DESIGN NEEDS TO BE
Future Thinking
Benefits3.
Source: Sad Topographies
Helps visualizing where we could be in the future
Source: Meristö, Laitinen, 2009
Source: Sad Topographies
Supports business choosing which risks to take
Source: Meristö, Laitinen, 2009
Source: Sad Topographies
Simplifies the complex is an easy and digestable way
WORLD’S INFORMATION INSIGHTS AND PLANS
Source: Meristö, Laitinen, 2009
Source: Sad Topographies
Business flexibility & new business oportunities
Source: Meristö, Laitinen, 2009
Future Thinking &
Service Design7.
(Service)
Design
Thinking
Futures
Research
Inovation
BUSINESS

OPPORTUNITY
In 2012, Koskelo & Nousiainen
studied the relationship between
Service Design and Futures
Research.
Innovation was the result
INFORMATION
COLLECTION
PESTE

Analysis
INFORMATION
PROCESSING
STRUCTURING
ALTERNATIVES
FUTURES
SELECTING /
EVALUATING
ALTERNATIVE

FUTURES
IDENTIFICATION

OF MARKET

NEEDS
CONCEPT
DEVELOPMENT,
TESTING

AND REFINEMENT
REALIZATION
Technology
Roadmap
Delphi -
Analysis
Future
table
Cross-Impact
Analysis
Time-Series
Analysis
Trend Analysis
Scenario
working
Futures table
Strategy
Working
Alternative
courses of
actions
Business
Potential
estimation of
scenarios
Competition
Analysis
Market
orientated
futures table
Scenario
storylines
SWOT
Market
Potential
Scenario
based theme
specific
identification
Concept
Drafts
Visualization
Visionary
Concepts
Commerciali-
zation
Piloting
Timing of
market
operations
and R&D
Cooperation
& Networks
FORESIGHT CONCEPTS
FUTURES  THINKING
Foresight  acIvity  in  the  context  of  innovaIon  process  (Meristö  2009,  as  cited  in  Meristö  and  LaiInen  2009,  16).  
UNDERSTANDING
Empathic
Conversations
THINKING GENERATING EXPLAINING FILTERING REALISING OPERATION
Observation
Ethnography
Probes
Future
Scenarios
Trend Analysis
Affinity wall
Personas
Mental
Models
Stage Play
Storyboard
Journey Map
Scenarios
Concepts
Prototypes
Use Cases
Scenario
What If
Service
Blueprint
Requirements
Roadmapping
Commerciali-
zation
Piloting
Timing of
market
operations
and R&D
Cooperation
& Networks
RESEARCH CONCEPTS DESIGN OPERATION
Multidisciplinary
Processing
Weak Signal
exploration
Non-Experts
Co-Design
Games
Drama
Co-Creative
Tools
Trend Cards
What If
Experience
Priorities
Deciding
Priorities
Agile
Development
Systematic
Implementation
SD  PROCESS  SUPPORTED  BY  FUTURES  RESEARCH
SOURCE:  MORITZ  2005,  123;  EDITED  BY  KOSKELO  AND  NOUSIAINEN  BASED  ON  THEIR  RESEARCH,  2012  
FUTURES THINKING Scenarios
PESTE
Context
Value Map
Personas
Trends
Weak Signals
Context
Value Map
Personas
What if
Roadmap
Storytelling
Play
Prototype
No constrains: Look far and
beyond for alternative and
desired contexts
DEFINE &
SCOPE
PROCESS &
IDEATE
DELIVER &
UTILIZE
DESIGN THINKING
Empathy and concreteness:
People driven systems and
solutions
Source: La Futura
UNDERSTANDING THINKING GENERATING EXPLAINING FILTERING REALISING OPERATION
INFORMATION
COLLECTION
INFORMATION
PROCESSING
STRUCTURING
ALTERNATIVES
FUTURES
SELECTING /
EVALUATING
ALTERNATIVE

FUTURES
IDENTIFICATION

OF MARKET

NEEDS
CONCEPT
DEVELOPMENT,
TESTING

AND REFINEMENT
REALIZATION
RESEARCH &
KNOWLEDGE CREATION
INTERPRET & DEVELOP CREATE &
TEST
FUTURES THINKING
SERVICE DESIGN
RESEARCH & FIND ANALYSE & DIGEST CREATE DEFINE
FUTURE THINKING
SERVICE DESIGN
CONTEXT: Scenarios & Possibilities that influence Design choices
Applying Future
Thinking in Design4.
RESEARCH AND ANALYSIS
raw data, information……
Understanding the context of the problem and foresee opportunities
CONCEPT DEVELOPMENT
Brings a bigger and wider prespective
Exploring Scenario and Possibilities
Short term plan & Big Vision
Development of a road map for the future
CONCEPT DEVELOPMENT
Weak Signals, Black
Swans & Trends5.
Examples:
Tinder, Facebook, Bimbi, Wearables….
- Your peers laugh at what you told
- “Never going to happen”

- People never heard about it,
- As more people speak more about it
more people get engaged
Weak Signals
Source: Hiltunen, 2010
- A rare and unexpected event with huge
social implications
- Can be made by Nature (tsunamis)
- Can be made by Humans (scientific
discoveries)
Black Swans
Source:  Xtreme  events,  2011  
Can be the possible destiny of something new or
different that might have a big impact over culture,
society or a specific market.


Raymond, 2009
Trend
A weak signal, behaviour change that becomes
more regular, and changes people, products and
ideas overtime.
Trend
Trends can be compulsive, addictive and sometimes
surprisingly viral when you least expected.
Trend
Trends Classification
MEGA TRENDS

Where the world is heading
MACRO TRENDS

What people want
MICRO TRENDS

What does it means to my business
MICRO TREND
Mass Market Ready
New
Intelligent
Can be structure changing
MACRO TREND
Economies
People
Environment
Society
Several Micro
Trends
MEGA TREND
Broad and Profound
Comprehensive and
extend to all regions
of the world
Affects all actors:
- Companies

- Individuals

- Governments
Takes many years to
become perceived
CONNECTED
WORLD
DIY ELECTRONICS
ARDUINO;
3D PRINTING
Example
MICRO
CULTURAL CHANGE
Changes in values and
attitudes of people
BEHAVIORAL CHANGE
Changes in practices,
patterns and models
SIGNALS
First Manifestations
GLOBAL CHANGE
Changes across the
globe
MACRO MEGA
OVER TIME
Source:  Based  on  Anu  K.  Nousiainen  research  
Trend cards help you to visualise trends. There is a
big variety of models and canvases. The best one is
the one you and your stakeholders feel comfortable
with. They are a great summary for the subjects in a
trend report.
Trend cards
Examples
TREND6
Consumers
become Creators
Futurice Oy, 2015
TREND6
Consumers
become Creators
Customers are becoming the designers.
They will sell customized products to their friends and community.
Consumers will care more about what they can do or create.
Futurice Oy, 2015
Customers are becoming the
designers and the best design
will be perceived as the one
which will give the customer
the power of creation.
Consumers will not only buy
from you but also sell the
customized products to their
friends and community.
Consumers will care less about
what they have or buy and
more about what they can do
or create..
•  85% of the 2014 Best Global
Brands have used crowdsourcing
in the last 10 years. (eYeka)
•  The Best Global Brands are three
times more likely to use
crowdsourcing platforms than
websites and social media for their
crowdsourcing efforts. (eYeka)
•  There is a strong commercial case
for personalization - those who
are doing it report 14% uplift in
sales. (e-consultancy)
!
!
Privacy is a big thing when
you create customers
profile. Retailers need to
treat it very seriously.
Creepiness – avoid
services that jus add extra
work to customer, but
rather gives an amazing
and seamless experience.
Find the right blend
between customer
creation and professional
expertise.
Always needs to be part of
the brand strategy.
New ways and channels to
communicate with
customers.
Know from customers
what they want and how
much they are involved
with your brand.
Ideas about new services
and also how to get the old
ones improved.
Create a controlled
environment in which
creation happens
(ikeahackers, Bugatti, etc.)
Trend intro Facts about the trend Challenges Opportunities
Consumers become Creators
Trend 6
Futurice Oy, 2015
Living&and&Crea,ng&Virtual&Reali,es&
With%the%development%of%superhuman%intelligence,%people%will%begin%
crea8ng%virtual%reali8es,%which%will%change%the%way%entertainment%is%
experienced%;%There%reali8es%will%be%very%close%to%real%life%experience,%
because%of%the%advanced%IT%technology,%and%therefore%very%realis8c%;%
People%will%be%part%of%informa8on%networks%that%are%connected%
everywhere%and%with%everything%;%By%crea8ng%and%living%virtual%reali8es,%
people%can%expand%their%experience%of%life,%and%also%share%their%virtual%
reali8es%with%others.%
%
Driving&Forces&&&Counter&trends&
Technological%development:%born%of%superhuman%intelligence%;%
Environmental:%people%s8ll%want%to%experience%things,%but%
travelling%will%be%more%dangerous%and%expensive%;%Similar%
experiences%can%be%experienced%virtually%;%Entertainment:%Movie%
industry%is%already%including%this%subject%to%movies%;%%Poli8cal:%
War%;%Health:%Virtual%reali8es%are%found%to%be%harmful?%
People&&&Consump,on&
Birth%of%social%media%and%real%life%role%play%games%are%a%beginning%of%this%trend%;%Also%the%
accelera8ng%speed%of%technological%development%;%Everyone%will%be%affected%by%the%trend%;%
People%will%find%ways%to%deepen%their%lives%through%virtual%reali8es.%It%could%also%become%
some%people's%profession%to%create%services%for%virtual%reali8es%or%to%provide%help%to%create%
new%virtual%reali8es%;%People%will%share%the%virtual%reali8es%they%created%with%their%friends%
and%this%will%become%one%form%of%social%network%of%being%a%human%;%This%trend%will%reduce%
the%amount%of%services%used%outside%the%virtual%reali8es%and%therefore%alter%the%targets%of%
consump8on%;%People%will%buy%services%to%enhance%their%experiences%in%the%virtual%reali8es.%%
HIGH&speed&of&change&
&
&
Global&
Living&and&Crea,ng&Virtual&Reali,es%
Google%Glass%
Samsung%%
paper%screen%%%
Maturity%&%Speed%%%%&I&&&&&Coverage%&%Context&
hQp://koota8on.com/virtual;reality.html%
Matrix%Movie%
Minority%Report%movie%
Source: SID group content using Trend Tool from 2012, ©Koskelo & Nousiainen
©2015 PSFK Labs
Source: Ixonos Plc
Source: Ixonos Plc
Scenarios6.
Source: Sad Topographies
Scenarios are a good source of information to support
Business and Design decisions for regarding the Future
IDEA
1
Possible Future
Scenario
2
Possible Future
Scenario
3
Possible Future
Scenario
Today
Inspired  by  Alstyne,  2010,  Hiltunen  2010,  Meristö  &  LaiInen  2009
Source: Sad Topographies
Scenarios are guesses about the future, some more
likely to happen than others
Inspired  by  Alstyne,  2010,  Hiltunen  2010,  Meristö  &  LaiInen  2009
Scenarios are not predictions
Scenarios can just be compared and not judged. There’s no better
or worst, but more or less probable.
Inspired  by  Alstyne,  2010,  Hiltunen  2010,  Meristö  &  LaiInen  2009
Scenarios
Stories that can be analysed and
synthesised, built in a sequential order
based on possible futures.
PROBABLE . POSSIBLE . PLAUSIBLE .
DESIRED . REALISTIC . INSPIRING
Source: Sad Topographies
To apply a scenario to your case, you need to contextualise
it and analyse it from different prespectives
BUSINESS
DESIGN TECH
7. WORKSHOP
Yeaah! Finally some action!
Instructions
1. Form groups

2. Choose 1 or more trend Cards

3. Identify 3 Consumer Needs

4. Ideate

5. Create a poster

6. Create a Customer Journey

7. Write your elevator pitch
8. Present Ideas
SEGMENTS
Private Companies
& Businesses
Government &
Politics
Economy &
Monetization
Media &
Entertainment
Science &
Technology
Arts & Culture Commerce Health &
Well-Being
Travel &
Transports
Education
Timeline
Choose
Segment
Choose Trend
Cards
Identify 3
Consumer Needs
Ideate
Create poster
Create a Customer
Journey
Write Elevator
Pitch
Present Ideas
10
min
10
min
10
min
30
min
15
min
15
min
15
min
5
min
Choose your trends
BUSINESS
TECH
MARKETING
SOCIAL
FOOD
CIVIC TECH
RETAIL
SOCIETY
MY & MYSELF
Define your consumer needs
Identify at least 3 consumer needs that relate to your area.
This needs should to be addressed by your concept.
BASIC NEEDS
Which deep consumer needs & desires does this trend address?
What new consumer needs, wants and expectations are created by
the changes identified above? Where and how does this trend satisfy
them?
Who are other businesses applying this trend? Which (new) customer
groups could you apply
this trend to?
What would you have to
change?
Why is this trend emerging now? What’s changing? How and where could you apply this trend to your business?
Long-Term, Widespread, Macro
SHIFTS
Recent, Short-Term, Technologies
TRIGGERS
CONSUMER TREND CANVAS
DRIVERS OF CHANGE
TREND :
INNOVATION POTENTIAL
EMERGING COMSUMER EXPECTATIONS INSPIRATION WHO?
BUSINESS
IDEA
Source:  trendwatching.com  |  CONSUMER  TREND  CANVAS
Brainstorming Rules
Defer Judgement
Go for Quantity
Encourage Wild Ideas
Build on the Ideas of Others
Stay Focused
Be Visual

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