SlideShare a Scribd company logo
DEMOGRAPHIC SPECULATION ON KARACHI 
Haris Gazdar 
researchcollective.org 
© Collective for Social Science Research
Outline 
•Population trends since 1980s and projections 
•Ethnic distribution and projections 
•Implications 
© Collective for Social Science Research
Long trends in population size Source: Population Census, various 
© Collective for Social Science Research
Historic trends projected Source: Author’s calculations, Population Census, various 
© Collective for Social Science Research
Projections – assuming undercounting in 1998 census 
© Collective for Social Science Research
Now assuming undercounting, and extraordinary blip due to war 
© Collective for Social Science Research
How realistic are the exceptions? 
•Historic trend shows declining growth rate since 1951 
–Unexceptional till 1981, good predictive power, standard method 
–Lower urban fertility rates: 3 vs 4.5 
–Absolute numbers of migrants rising, but as a proportion of population declining: 46% in 1981, 24% in 1998 
•First exception 
–Undercounted 1.375 million, or 10 per cent of population 
–Afghans, ethnic Bengalis/Burmese? 
•Second exception 
–Implies not one-off displacement, but continuous, because assuming higher growth rates over 2 decades 
–Over 5.5 million EXTRA migrants between 2003 and 2009 
© Collective for Social Science Research
Ethnic distribution – unexceptional historic trends Population: 14 million in 2011, 20 million in 2025 
© Collective for Social Science Research
Ethnic distribution – 1 exception Population: 17 million in 2011, 25 million in 2025 
© Collective for Social Science Research
Ethnic distribution – 2 exceptions Population: 19 million in 2011, 32 million in 2025 
© Collective for Social Science Research
Implications 
•Need firmer basis for exceptions from historic trends than has been provided thus far 
–All periods are exceptional, and trends take this in, when baseline numbers are big 
•Resource allocation politics is mixed up 
–If Karachi is bigger than we thought, then Urdu-speaking proportion is smaller that we thought, and vice versa 
–If Pashto-speaking population is bigger than we thought, then it is correspondingly smaller in KP/FATA 
•A highly plural multi-ethnic future is inevitable 
–The city’s heritage is that of a cosmopolitan centre, and return to that 
–Older districts like South already plural – rest of the city is catching up 
–Inevitability of politics of inclusion/negotiation, if want to avoid conflict 
–Urban governance needs to proactively support/celebrate ethnic plurality, rather than ignore it 
© Collective for Social Science Research

More Related Content

What's hot

The urban poor get poor attention
The urban poor get poor attentionThe urban poor get poor attention
The urban poor get poor attention
M S Siddiqui
 
Housing for the urban poor naredco
Housing for the urban poor naredcoHousing for the urban poor naredco
Housing for the urban poor naredco
Sushil Kumar Yadav
 
Internal Migration in China
Internal Migration in ChinaInternal Migration in China
Internal Migration in China
Lester Lim
 
Urbanization Process
Urbanization ProcessUrbanization Process
Urbanization Process
Prabesh Ghimire
 
Urbanization and Population Migration in China
Urbanization and Population Migration in China Urbanization and Population Migration in China
Urbanization and Population Migration in China
SAE - Secretaria de Assuntos Estratégicos da Presidência da República
 
The Dysfunctional Paradigms of Urban Renewal
The Dysfunctional Paradigms of Urban RenewalThe Dysfunctional Paradigms of Urban Renewal
The Dysfunctional Paradigms of Urban Renewal
revoj67
 
Levels, Patterns and Trends of Urbanization (World)
Levels, Patterns and Trends of Urbanization (World)Levels, Patterns and Trends of Urbanization (World)
Levels, Patterns and Trends of Urbanization (World)
ShreemoyeeSaha1
 
Defining Urban, Urbanization and Urbanism
Defining Urban, Urbanization and UrbanismDefining Urban, Urbanization and Urbanism
Defining Urban, Urbanization and Urbanism
Jo Balucanag - Bitonio
 
Permanent Migration and Remittances in Ethiopia
Permanent Migration and Remittances in EthiopiaPermanent Migration and Remittances in Ethiopia
Permanent Migration and Remittances in Ethiopia
essp2
 
Rural Urban Migration
Rural Urban MigrationRural Urban Migration
Rural Urban Migration
Jo Balucanag - Bitonio
 
Urbanization and design
Urbanization and designUrbanization and design
Urbanization and design
Mihir Bholey, PhD
 
China's Urban Transformation — Weiping Wu, Tufts University — WRI Cities Rese...
China's Urban Transformation — Weiping Wu, Tufts University — WRI Cities Rese...China's Urban Transformation — Weiping Wu, Tufts University — WRI Cities Rese...
China's Urban Transformation — Weiping Wu, Tufts University — WRI Cities Rese...
WRI Ross Center for Sustainable Cities
 
Urban growth
Urban growthUrban growth
Urban growth
nefertari_1984
 
Urbanization in pakistan
Urbanization in pakistanUrbanization in pakistan
Urbanization in pakistan
Sadia Rahat
 
Urbanization: How city grow ?
Urbanization: How city grow ?Urbanization: How city grow ?
Urbanization: How city grow ?
Freelancing - Urban development and Planning
 
URBANIZATION & MIGRATION
 URBANIZATION & MIGRATION URBANIZATION & MIGRATION
URBANIZATION & MIGRATION
Eminent Planners
 
Mprhgd lec9 urbanization
Mprhgd lec9 urbanizationMprhgd lec9 urbanization
Mprhgd lec9 urbanization
Guannu Kuluku Dezon
 
Rural to urban migration in India
Rural to urban migration in IndiaRural to urban migration in India
Rural to urban migration in India
Geo Slades
 
Comparing urbanization in china and india
Comparing urbanization in china and indiaComparing urbanization in china and india
Comparing urbanization in china and india
bigflyman
 
Urbanization in the_developing_world
Urbanization in the_developing_worldUrbanization in the_developing_world
Urbanization in the_developing_world
rushyou0301
 

What's hot (20)

The urban poor get poor attention
The urban poor get poor attentionThe urban poor get poor attention
The urban poor get poor attention
 
Housing for the urban poor naredco
Housing for the urban poor naredcoHousing for the urban poor naredco
Housing for the urban poor naredco
 
Internal Migration in China
Internal Migration in ChinaInternal Migration in China
Internal Migration in China
 
Urbanization Process
Urbanization ProcessUrbanization Process
Urbanization Process
 
Urbanization and Population Migration in China
Urbanization and Population Migration in China Urbanization and Population Migration in China
Urbanization and Population Migration in China
 
The Dysfunctional Paradigms of Urban Renewal
The Dysfunctional Paradigms of Urban RenewalThe Dysfunctional Paradigms of Urban Renewal
The Dysfunctional Paradigms of Urban Renewal
 
Levels, Patterns and Trends of Urbanization (World)
Levels, Patterns and Trends of Urbanization (World)Levels, Patterns and Trends of Urbanization (World)
Levels, Patterns and Trends of Urbanization (World)
 
Defining Urban, Urbanization and Urbanism
Defining Urban, Urbanization and UrbanismDefining Urban, Urbanization and Urbanism
Defining Urban, Urbanization and Urbanism
 
Permanent Migration and Remittances in Ethiopia
Permanent Migration and Remittances in EthiopiaPermanent Migration and Remittances in Ethiopia
Permanent Migration and Remittances in Ethiopia
 
Rural Urban Migration
Rural Urban MigrationRural Urban Migration
Rural Urban Migration
 
Urbanization and design
Urbanization and designUrbanization and design
Urbanization and design
 
China's Urban Transformation — Weiping Wu, Tufts University — WRI Cities Rese...
China's Urban Transformation — Weiping Wu, Tufts University — WRI Cities Rese...China's Urban Transformation — Weiping Wu, Tufts University — WRI Cities Rese...
China's Urban Transformation — Weiping Wu, Tufts University — WRI Cities Rese...
 
Urban growth
Urban growthUrban growth
Urban growth
 
Urbanization in pakistan
Urbanization in pakistanUrbanization in pakistan
Urbanization in pakistan
 
Urbanization: How city grow ?
Urbanization: How city grow ?Urbanization: How city grow ?
Urbanization: How city grow ?
 
URBANIZATION & MIGRATION
 URBANIZATION & MIGRATION URBANIZATION & MIGRATION
URBANIZATION & MIGRATION
 
Mprhgd lec9 urbanization
Mprhgd lec9 urbanizationMprhgd lec9 urbanization
Mprhgd lec9 urbanization
 
Rural to urban migration in India
Rural to urban migration in IndiaRural to urban migration in India
Rural to urban migration in India
 
Comparing urbanization in china and india
Comparing urbanization in china and indiaComparing urbanization in china and india
Comparing urbanization in china and india
 
Urbanization in the_developing_world
Urbanization in the_developing_worldUrbanization in the_developing_world
Urbanization in the_developing_world
 

Viewers also liked

Geography of pakistan
Geography of pakistanGeography of pakistan
Geography of pakistan
Dawood Faheem Abbasi
 
MUMBAI METROPOLITIAN REGION
MUMBAI METROPOLITIAN REGIONMUMBAI METROPOLITIAN REGION
MUMBAI METROPOLITIAN REGION
Intekhab Alam
 
Karachi
KarachiKarachi
Karachi
MAJU
 
Npp siting pakistan aa
Npp siting pakistan aaNpp siting pakistan aa
Npp siting pakistan aa
akhtar ali
 
Mumbai dabbawallas
Mumbai dabbawallasMumbai dabbawallas
Mumbai dabbawallas
Ashish More
 
Karachi- The City of Migrants
Karachi- The City of MigrantsKarachi- The City of Migrants
Karachi- The City of Migrants
Mansoor Raza
 
Mumbai
MumbaiMumbai
Mumbai
guest2bc412
 
Employee Engagement for festivals
Employee Engagement for festivalsEmployee Engagement for festivals
Employee Engagement for festivals
Rasika Salodkar
 
Amjad bhatti.ppt
Amjad bhatti.pptAmjad bhatti.ppt
Amjad bhatti.ppt
muhammad amjad
 
Tourism in Pakistan
Tourism in PakistanTourism in Pakistan
Tourism in Pakistan
Sameer Ahmed
 
Tourism in pakistan
Tourism in pakistanTourism in pakistan
Tourism in pakistan
Shubham Aggarwal
 
Mumbai and the mmr (rajiv misra)
Mumbai and the mmr (rajiv misra)Mumbai and the mmr (rajiv misra)
Mumbai and the mmr (rajiv misra)
www.theurbanvision.com
 
Tourism in pakistan
Tourism in pakistanTourism in pakistan
Tourism in pakistan
Zahida Pervaiz
 
Tourism in pakistan
Tourism in pakistanTourism in pakistan
Tourism in pakistan
waqqad_khan
 

Viewers also liked (15)

Geography of pakistan
Geography of pakistanGeography of pakistan
Geography of pakistan
 
MUMBAI METROPOLITIAN REGION
MUMBAI METROPOLITIAN REGIONMUMBAI METROPOLITIAN REGION
MUMBAI METROPOLITIAN REGION
 
Karachi
KarachiKarachi
Karachi
 
Npp siting pakistan aa
Npp siting pakistan aaNpp siting pakistan aa
Npp siting pakistan aa
 
Mumbai dabbawallas
Mumbai dabbawallasMumbai dabbawallas
Mumbai dabbawallas
 
Shanghai
ShanghaiShanghai
Shanghai
 
Karachi- The City of Migrants
Karachi- The City of MigrantsKarachi- The City of Migrants
Karachi- The City of Migrants
 
Mumbai
MumbaiMumbai
Mumbai
 
Employee Engagement for festivals
Employee Engagement for festivalsEmployee Engagement for festivals
Employee Engagement for festivals
 
Amjad bhatti.ppt
Amjad bhatti.pptAmjad bhatti.ppt
Amjad bhatti.ppt
 
Tourism in Pakistan
Tourism in PakistanTourism in Pakistan
Tourism in Pakistan
 
Tourism in pakistan
Tourism in pakistanTourism in pakistan
Tourism in pakistan
 
Mumbai and the mmr (rajiv misra)
Mumbai and the mmr (rajiv misra)Mumbai and the mmr (rajiv misra)
Mumbai and the mmr (rajiv misra)
 
Tourism in pakistan
Tourism in pakistanTourism in pakistan
Tourism in pakistan
 
Tourism in pakistan
Tourism in pakistanTourism in pakistan
Tourism in pakistan
 

Similar to Demographic Speculation on Karachi by Haris Gazdar

1...WORLD URBANIZATION..................
1...WORLD URBANIZATION..................1...WORLD URBANIZATION..................
1...WORLD URBANIZATION..................
CharuNangia
 
MPH1.pptx
MPH1.pptxMPH1.pptx
MPH1.pptx
MUHAMMAD UMAIR
 
POPULATION CHANGE.pptx
POPULATION CHANGE.pptxPOPULATION CHANGE.pptx
POPULATION CHANGE.pptx
Rhaine K2
 
Urbanisation in bangladesh : Recent trends and challenges
Urbanisation in bangladesh : Recent trends and challengesUrbanisation in bangladesh : Recent trends and challenges
Urbanisation in bangladesh : Recent trends and challenges
Reyad Hossain
 
Migration
MigrationMigration
Nguyen dinh khoa's assignment prof. rod burgess' subjects
Nguyen dinh khoa's assignment    prof. rod burgess' subjectsNguyen dinh khoa's assignment    prof. rod burgess' subjects
Nguyen dinh khoa's assignment prof. rod burgess' subjects
Nguyễn Khoa
 
Nguyen dinh khoa's assignment prof. rod burgess' subjects
Nguyen dinh khoa's assignment    prof. rod burgess' subjectsNguyen dinh khoa's assignment    prof. rod burgess' subjects
Nguyen dinh khoa's assignment prof. rod burgess' subjects
Nguyễn Khoa
 
Urban development
Urban developmentUrban development
Urban development
International advisers
 
6. migration
6. migration6. migration
6. migration
saiyangoku
 
Lecture 3
Lecture 3Lecture 3
Lecture 3
Bernard Oduro
 
Cape Town, South Africa : A City Profile
Cape Town, South Africa : A City ProfileCape Town, South Africa : A City Profile
Cape Town, South Africa : A City Profile
monoarulhaq007
 
Regional Inequality and Policy
Regional Inequality and PolicyRegional Inequality and Policy
Deendayal Antyodaya Yojana-National Urban Livelihoods Mission (DAY-NULM.pptx
Deendayal Antyodaya Yojana-National Urban Livelihoods Mission (DAY-NULM.pptxDeendayal Antyodaya Yojana-National Urban Livelihoods Mission (DAY-NULM.pptx
Deendayal Antyodaya Yojana-National Urban Livelihoods Mission (DAY-NULM.pptx
JIT KUMAR GUPTA
 
Population 2 eso
Population 2 esoPopulation 2 eso
Population 2 eso
Lydia Emory
 
Urban Development
Urban DevelopmentUrban Development
Urban Development
GAURAV. H .TANDON
 
Urbanization and Globalization.pptx
Urbanization and Globalization.pptxUrbanization and Globalization.pptx
Urbanization and Globalization.pptx
Jo Balucanag - Bitonio
 
URBANIZATION B Lagos state university's document
URBANIZATION B Lagos state university's documentURBANIZATION B Lagos state university's document
URBANIZATION B Lagos state university's document
anatomygrandger
 
Urban planning and development:in the context of nepal [compatibility mode]
Urban planning and development:in the context of nepal  [compatibility mode]Urban planning and development:in the context of nepal  [compatibility mode]
Urban planning and development:in the context of nepal [compatibility mode]
Freelancing - Urban development and Planning
 
Political Economy Constraints For Urban Development
Political Economy Constraints For Urban DevelopmentPolitical Economy Constraints For Urban Development
Political Economy Constraints For Urban Development
Borhan Uddin
 
Factors for City Transformation
Factors for City TransformationFactors for City Transformation
Factors for City Transformation
Iram Aziz
 

Similar to Demographic Speculation on Karachi by Haris Gazdar (20)

1...WORLD URBANIZATION..................
1...WORLD URBANIZATION..................1...WORLD URBANIZATION..................
1...WORLD URBANIZATION..................
 
MPH1.pptx
MPH1.pptxMPH1.pptx
MPH1.pptx
 
POPULATION CHANGE.pptx
POPULATION CHANGE.pptxPOPULATION CHANGE.pptx
POPULATION CHANGE.pptx
 
Urbanisation in bangladesh : Recent trends and challenges
Urbanisation in bangladesh : Recent trends and challengesUrbanisation in bangladesh : Recent trends and challenges
Urbanisation in bangladesh : Recent trends and challenges
 
Migration
MigrationMigration
Migration
 
Nguyen dinh khoa's assignment prof. rod burgess' subjects
Nguyen dinh khoa's assignment    prof. rod burgess' subjectsNguyen dinh khoa's assignment    prof. rod burgess' subjects
Nguyen dinh khoa's assignment prof. rod burgess' subjects
 
Nguyen dinh khoa's assignment prof. rod burgess' subjects
Nguyen dinh khoa's assignment    prof. rod burgess' subjectsNguyen dinh khoa's assignment    prof. rod burgess' subjects
Nguyen dinh khoa's assignment prof. rod burgess' subjects
 
Urban development
Urban developmentUrban development
Urban development
 
6. migration
6. migration6. migration
6. migration
 
Lecture 3
Lecture 3Lecture 3
Lecture 3
 
Cape Town, South Africa : A City Profile
Cape Town, South Africa : A City ProfileCape Town, South Africa : A City Profile
Cape Town, South Africa : A City Profile
 
Regional Inequality and Policy
Regional Inequality and PolicyRegional Inequality and Policy
Regional Inequality and Policy
 
Deendayal Antyodaya Yojana-National Urban Livelihoods Mission (DAY-NULM.pptx
Deendayal Antyodaya Yojana-National Urban Livelihoods Mission (DAY-NULM.pptxDeendayal Antyodaya Yojana-National Urban Livelihoods Mission (DAY-NULM.pptx
Deendayal Antyodaya Yojana-National Urban Livelihoods Mission (DAY-NULM.pptx
 
Population 2 eso
Population 2 esoPopulation 2 eso
Population 2 eso
 
Urban Development
Urban DevelopmentUrban Development
Urban Development
 
Urbanization and Globalization.pptx
Urbanization and Globalization.pptxUrbanization and Globalization.pptx
Urbanization and Globalization.pptx
 
URBANIZATION B Lagos state university's document
URBANIZATION B Lagos state university's documentURBANIZATION B Lagos state university's document
URBANIZATION B Lagos state university's document
 
Urban planning and development:in the context of nepal [compatibility mode]
Urban planning and development:in the context of nepal  [compatibility mode]Urban planning and development:in the context of nepal  [compatibility mode]
Urban planning and development:in the context of nepal [compatibility mode]
 
Political Economy Constraints For Urban Development
Political Economy Constraints For Urban DevelopmentPolitical Economy Constraints For Urban Development
Political Economy Constraints For Urban Development
 
Factors for City Transformation
Factors for City TransformationFactors for City Transformation
Factors for City Transformation
 

More from Collective for Social Science

Feasibility of Agricultural Asset Transfers to Improve Nutrition in Pakistan
Feasibility of Agricultural Asset Transfers to Improve Nutrition in PakistanFeasibility of Agricultural Asset Transfers to Improve Nutrition in Pakistan
Feasibility of Agricultural Asset Transfers to Improve Nutrition in Pakistan
Collective for Social Science
 
Petition in Sindh Court: A Public Interest Litigation Case to Address Obstetr...
Petition in Sindh Court: A Public Interest Litigation Case to Address Obstetr...Petition in Sindh Court: A Public Interest Litigation Case to Address Obstetr...
Petition in Sindh Court: A Public Interest Litigation Case to Address Obstetr...
Collective for Social Science
 
Women in Politics: Gaining Ground for Progressive Outcomes
Women in Politics: Gaining Ground for Progressive OutcomesWomen in Politics: Gaining Ground for Progressive Outcomes
Women in Politics: Gaining Ground for Progressive Outcomes
Collective for Social Science
 
Recognising Women Agricultural Workers: An Agenda for Reform
Recognising Women Agricultural Workers: An Agenda for ReformRecognising Women Agricultural Workers: An Agenda for Reform
Recognising Women Agricultural Workers: An Agenda for Reform
Collective for Social Science
 
Women agricultural workers and nutrition
Women agricultural workers and nutritionWomen agricultural workers and nutrition
Women agricultural workers and nutrition
Collective for Social Science
 
Women and Inclusivity of Growth, Pakistan @100
Women and Inclusivity of Growth, Pakistan @100Women and Inclusivity of Growth, Pakistan @100
Women and Inclusivity of Growth, Pakistan @100
Collective for Social Science
 
Gender and Poverty: perspectives from South Asia focusing on women agricultur...
Gender and Poverty: perspectives from South Asia focusing on women agricultur...Gender and Poverty: perspectives from South Asia focusing on women agricultur...
Gender and Poverty: perspectives from South Asia focusing on women agricultur...
Collective for Social Science
 
Poverty, food security and nutrition - linking SDGs through women agricultura...
Poverty, food security and nutrition - linking SDGs through women agricultura...Poverty, food security and nutrition - linking SDGs through women agricultura...
Poverty, food security and nutrition - linking SDGs through women agricultura...
Collective for Social Science
 
Food security, Hunger and Nutrition in Sindh
Food security, Hunger and Nutrition in SindhFood security, Hunger and Nutrition in Sindh
Food security, Hunger and Nutrition in Sindh
Collective for Social Science
 
Food security, hunger & nutrition in sindh
Food security, hunger & nutrition in sindh Food security, hunger & nutrition in sindh
Food security, hunger & nutrition in sindh
Collective for Social Science
 
Can Rural Leaders Play a Role?
Can Rural Leaders Play a Role?Can Rural Leaders Play a Role?
Can Rural Leaders Play a Role?
Collective for Social Science
 
The Hidden Economic Backbone - Women in Agriculture
The Hidden Economic Backbone - Women in AgricultureThe Hidden Economic Backbone - Women in Agriculture
The Hidden Economic Backbone - Women in Agriculture
Collective for Social Science
 
Estimating the Living Wage in Sialkot, Pakistan
Estimating the Living Wage in Sialkot, PakistanEstimating the Living Wage in Sialkot, Pakistan
Estimating the Living Wage in Sialkot, Pakistan
Collective for Social Science
 
The Potholed Road to De-centralization: An explorative study of Service Deliv...
The Potholed Road to De-centralization: An explorative study of Service Deliv...The Potholed Road to De-centralization: An explorative study of Service Deliv...
The Potholed Road to De-centralization: An explorative study of Service Deliv...
Collective for Social Science
 
Estimating a Living Wage in Pakistan
Estimating a Living Wage in PakistanEstimating a Living Wage in Pakistan
Estimating a Living Wage in Pakistan
Collective for Social Science
 
Mafia Domination or Victims of Neo-Liberalization? Woes of Karachi's Urban Tr...
Mafia Domination or Victims of Neo-Liberalization? Woes of Karachi's Urban Tr...Mafia Domination or Victims of Neo-Liberalization? Woes of Karachi's Urban Tr...
Mafia Domination or Victims of Neo-Liberalization? Woes of Karachi's Urban Tr...
Collective for Social Science
 
Women’s Agricultural Work and Nutrition in Pakistan: Findings from Qualitativ...
Women’s Agricultural Work and Nutrition in Pakistan: Findings from Qualitativ...Women’s Agricultural Work and Nutrition in Pakistan: Findings from Qualitativ...
Women’s Agricultural Work and Nutrition in Pakistan: Findings from Qualitativ...
Collective for Social Science
 
LANSA / PIDE - Synergy or trade-off between agri growth & nutrition: women’s ...
LANSA / PIDE - Synergy or trade-off between agri growth & nutrition: women’s ...LANSA / PIDE - Synergy or trade-off between agri growth & nutrition: women’s ...
LANSA / PIDE - Synergy or trade-off between agri growth & nutrition: women’s ...
Collective for Social Science
 

More from Collective for Social Science (18)

Feasibility of Agricultural Asset Transfers to Improve Nutrition in Pakistan
Feasibility of Agricultural Asset Transfers to Improve Nutrition in PakistanFeasibility of Agricultural Asset Transfers to Improve Nutrition in Pakistan
Feasibility of Agricultural Asset Transfers to Improve Nutrition in Pakistan
 
Petition in Sindh Court: A Public Interest Litigation Case to Address Obstetr...
Petition in Sindh Court: A Public Interest Litigation Case to Address Obstetr...Petition in Sindh Court: A Public Interest Litigation Case to Address Obstetr...
Petition in Sindh Court: A Public Interest Litigation Case to Address Obstetr...
 
Women in Politics: Gaining Ground for Progressive Outcomes
Women in Politics: Gaining Ground for Progressive OutcomesWomen in Politics: Gaining Ground for Progressive Outcomes
Women in Politics: Gaining Ground for Progressive Outcomes
 
Recognising Women Agricultural Workers: An Agenda for Reform
Recognising Women Agricultural Workers: An Agenda for ReformRecognising Women Agricultural Workers: An Agenda for Reform
Recognising Women Agricultural Workers: An Agenda for Reform
 
Women agricultural workers and nutrition
Women agricultural workers and nutritionWomen agricultural workers and nutrition
Women agricultural workers and nutrition
 
Women and Inclusivity of Growth, Pakistan @100
Women and Inclusivity of Growth, Pakistan @100Women and Inclusivity of Growth, Pakistan @100
Women and Inclusivity of Growth, Pakistan @100
 
Gender and Poverty: perspectives from South Asia focusing on women agricultur...
Gender and Poverty: perspectives from South Asia focusing on women agricultur...Gender and Poverty: perspectives from South Asia focusing on women agricultur...
Gender and Poverty: perspectives from South Asia focusing on women agricultur...
 
Poverty, food security and nutrition - linking SDGs through women agricultura...
Poverty, food security and nutrition - linking SDGs through women agricultura...Poverty, food security and nutrition - linking SDGs through women agricultura...
Poverty, food security and nutrition - linking SDGs through women agricultura...
 
Food security, Hunger and Nutrition in Sindh
Food security, Hunger and Nutrition in SindhFood security, Hunger and Nutrition in Sindh
Food security, Hunger and Nutrition in Sindh
 
Food security, hunger & nutrition in sindh
Food security, hunger & nutrition in sindh Food security, hunger & nutrition in sindh
Food security, hunger & nutrition in sindh
 
Can Rural Leaders Play a Role?
Can Rural Leaders Play a Role?Can Rural Leaders Play a Role?
Can Rural Leaders Play a Role?
 
The Hidden Economic Backbone - Women in Agriculture
The Hidden Economic Backbone - Women in AgricultureThe Hidden Economic Backbone - Women in Agriculture
The Hidden Economic Backbone - Women in Agriculture
 
Estimating the Living Wage in Sialkot, Pakistan
Estimating the Living Wage in Sialkot, PakistanEstimating the Living Wage in Sialkot, Pakistan
Estimating the Living Wage in Sialkot, Pakistan
 
The Potholed Road to De-centralization: An explorative study of Service Deliv...
The Potholed Road to De-centralization: An explorative study of Service Deliv...The Potholed Road to De-centralization: An explorative study of Service Deliv...
The Potholed Road to De-centralization: An explorative study of Service Deliv...
 
Estimating a Living Wage in Pakistan
Estimating a Living Wage in PakistanEstimating a Living Wage in Pakistan
Estimating a Living Wage in Pakistan
 
Mafia Domination or Victims of Neo-Liberalization? Woes of Karachi's Urban Tr...
Mafia Domination or Victims of Neo-Liberalization? Woes of Karachi's Urban Tr...Mafia Domination or Victims of Neo-Liberalization? Woes of Karachi's Urban Tr...
Mafia Domination or Victims of Neo-Liberalization? Woes of Karachi's Urban Tr...
 
Women’s Agricultural Work and Nutrition in Pakistan: Findings from Qualitativ...
Women’s Agricultural Work and Nutrition in Pakistan: Findings from Qualitativ...Women’s Agricultural Work and Nutrition in Pakistan: Findings from Qualitativ...
Women’s Agricultural Work and Nutrition in Pakistan: Findings from Qualitativ...
 
LANSA / PIDE - Synergy or trade-off between agri growth & nutrition: women’s ...
LANSA / PIDE - Synergy or trade-off between agri growth & nutrition: women’s ...LANSA / PIDE - Synergy or trade-off between agri growth & nutrition: women’s ...
LANSA / PIDE - Synergy or trade-off between agri growth & nutrition: women’s ...
 

Recently uploaded

Beyond the Basics of A/B Tests: Highly Innovative Experimentation Tactics You...
Beyond the Basics of A/B Tests: Highly Innovative Experimentation Tactics You...Beyond the Basics of A/B Tests: Highly Innovative Experimentation Tactics You...
Beyond the Basics of A/B Tests: Highly Innovative Experimentation Tactics You...
Aggregage
 
Intelligence supported media monitoring in veterinary medicine
Intelligence supported media monitoring in veterinary medicineIntelligence supported media monitoring in veterinary medicine
Intelligence supported media monitoring in veterinary medicine
AndrzejJarynowski
 
State of Artificial intelligence Report 2023
State of Artificial intelligence Report 2023State of Artificial intelligence Report 2023
State of Artificial intelligence Report 2023
kuntobimo2016
 
在线办理(英国UCA毕业证书)创意艺术大学毕业证在读证明一模一样
在线办理(英国UCA毕业证书)创意艺术大学毕业证在读证明一模一样在线办理(英国UCA毕业证书)创意艺术大学毕业证在读证明一模一样
在线办理(英国UCA毕业证书)创意艺术大学毕业证在读证明一模一样
v7oacc3l
 
STATATHON: Unleashing the Power of Statistics in a 48-Hour Knowledge Extravag...
STATATHON: Unleashing the Power of Statistics in a 48-Hour Knowledge Extravag...STATATHON: Unleashing the Power of Statistics in a 48-Hour Knowledge Extravag...
STATATHON: Unleashing the Power of Statistics in a 48-Hour Knowledge Extravag...
sameer shah
 
Challenges of Nation Building-1.pptx with more important
Challenges of Nation Building-1.pptx with more importantChallenges of Nation Building-1.pptx with more important
Challenges of Nation Building-1.pptx with more important
Sm321
 
A presentation that explain the Power BI Licensing
A presentation that explain the Power BI LicensingA presentation that explain the Power BI Licensing
A presentation that explain the Power BI Licensing
AlessioFois2
 
Experts live - Improving user adoption with AI
Experts live - Improving user adoption with AIExperts live - Improving user adoption with AI
Experts live - Improving user adoption with AI
jitskeb
 
Analysis insight about a Flyball dog competition team's performance
Analysis insight about a Flyball dog competition team's performanceAnalysis insight about a Flyball dog competition team's performance
Analysis insight about a Flyball dog competition team's performance
roli9797
 
一比一原版(牛布毕业证书)牛津布鲁克斯大学毕业证如何办理
一比一原版(牛布毕业证书)牛津布鲁克斯大学毕业证如何办理一比一原版(牛布毕业证书)牛津布鲁克斯大学毕业证如何办理
一比一原版(牛布毕业证书)牛津布鲁克斯大学毕业证如何办理
74nqk8xf
 
DSSML24_tspann_CodelessGenerativeAIPipelines
DSSML24_tspann_CodelessGenerativeAIPipelinesDSSML24_tspann_CodelessGenerativeAIPipelines
DSSML24_tspann_CodelessGenerativeAIPipelines
Timothy Spann
 
Population Growth in Bataan: The effects of population growth around rural pl...
Population Growth in Bataan: The effects of population growth around rural pl...Population Growth in Bataan: The effects of population growth around rural pl...
Population Growth in Bataan: The effects of population growth around rural pl...
Bill641377
 
一比一原版(UMN文凭证书)明尼苏达大学毕业证如何办理
一比一原版(UMN文凭证书)明尼苏达大学毕业证如何办理一比一原版(UMN文凭证书)明尼苏达大学毕业证如何办理
一比一原版(UMN文凭证书)明尼苏达大学毕业证如何办理
nyfuhyz
 
Palo Alto Cortex XDR presentation .......
Palo Alto Cortex XDR presentation .......Palo Alto Cortex XDR presentation .......
Palo Alto Cortex XDR presentation .......
Sachin Paul
 
Influence of Marketing Strategy and Market Competition on Business Plan
Influence of Marketing Strategy and Market Competition on Business PlanInfluence of Marketing Strategy and Market Competition on Business Plan
Influence of Marketing Strategy and Market Competition on Business Plan
jerlynmaetalle
 
The Building Blocks of QuestDB, a Time Series Database
The Building Blocks of QuestDB, a Time Series DatabaseThe Building Blocks of QuestDB, a Time Series Database
The Building Blocks of QuestDB, a Time Series Database
javier ramirez
 
一比一原版(Coventry毕业证书)考文垂大学毕业证如何办理
一比一原版(Coventry毕业证书)考文垂大学毕业证如何办理一比一原版(Coventry毕业证书)考文垂大学毕业证如何办理
一比一原版(Coventry毕业证书)考文垂大学毕业证如何办理
74nqk8xf
 
Everything you wanted to know about LIHTC
Everything you wanted to know about LIHTCEverything you wanted to know about LIHTC
Everything you wanted to know about LIHTC
Roger Valdez
 
06-12-2024-BudapestDataForum-BuildingReal-timePipelineswithFLaNK AIM
06-12-2024-BudapestDataForum-BuildingReal-timePipelineswithFLaNK AIM06-12-2024-BudapestDataForum-BuildingReal-timePipelineswithFLaNK AIM
06-12-2024-BudapestDataForum-BuildingReal-timePipelineswithFLaNK AIM
Timothy Spann
 
My burning issue is homelessness K.C.M.O.
My burning issue is homelessness K.C.M.O.My burning issue is homelessness K.C.M.O.
My burning issue is homelessness K.C.M.O.
rwarrenll
 

Recently uploaded (20)

Beyond the Basics of A/B Tests: Highly Innovative Experimentation Tactics You...
Beyond the Basics of A/B Tests: Highly Innovative Experimentation Tactics You...Beyond the Basics of A/B Tests: Highly Innovative Experimentation Tactics You...
Beyond the Basics of A/B Tests: Highly Innovative Experimentation Tactics You...
 
Intelligence supported media monitoring in veterinary medicine
Intelligence supported media monitoring in veterinary medicineIntelligence supported media monitoring in veterinary medicine
Intelligence supported media monitoring in veterinary medicine
 
State of Artificial intelligence Report 2023
State of Artificial intelligence Report 2023State of Artificial intelligence Report 2023
State of Artificial intelligence Report 2023
 
在线办理(英国UCA毕业证书)创意艺术大学毕业证在读证明一模一样
在线办理(英国UCA毕业证书)创意艺术大学毕业证在读证明一模一样在线办理(英国UCA毕业证书)创意艺术大学毕业证在读证明一模一样
在线办理(英国UCA毕业证书)创意艺术大学毕业证在读证明一模一样
 
STATATHON: Unleashing the Power of Statistics in a 48-Hour Knowledge Extravag...
STATATHON: Unleashing the Power of Statistics in a 48-Hour Knowledge Extravag...STATATHON: Unleashing the Power of Statistics in a 48-Hour Knowledge Extravag...
STATATHON: Unleashing the Power of Statistics in a 48-Hour Knowledge Extravag...
 
Challenges of Nation Building-1.pptx with more important
Challenges of Nation Building-1.pptx with more importantChallenges of Nation Building-1.pptx with more important
Challenges of Nation Building-1.pptx with more important
 
A presentation that explain the Power BI Licensing
A presentation that explain the Power BI LicensingA presentation that explain the Power BI Licensing
A presentation that explain the Power BI Licensing
 
Experts live - Improving user adoption with AI
Experts live - Improving user adoption with AIExperts live - Improving user adoption with AI
Experts live - Improving user adoption with AI
 
Analysis insight about a Flyball dog competition team's performance
Analysis insight about a Flyball dog competition team's performanceAnalysis insight about a Flyball dog competition team's performance
Analysis insight about a Flyball dog competition team's performance
 
一比一原版(牛布毕业证书)牛津布鲁克斯大学毕业证如何办理
一比一原版(牛布毕业证书)牛津布鲁克斯大学毕业证如何办理一比一原版(牛布毕业证书)牛津布鲁克斯大学毕业证如何办理
一比一原版(牛布毕业证书)牛津布鲁克斯大学毕业证如何办理
 
DSSML24_tspann_CodelessGenerativeAIPipelines
DSSML24_tspann_CodelessGenerativeAIPipelinesDSSML24_tspann_CodelessGenerativeAIPipelines
DSSML24_tspann_CodelessGenerativeAIPipelines
 
Population Growth in Bataan: The effects of population growth around rural pl...
Population Growth in Bataan: The effects of population growth around rural pl...Population Growth in Bataan: The effects of population growth around rural pl...
Population Growth in Bataan: The effects of population growth around rural pl...
 
一比一原版(UMN文凭证书)明尼苏达大学毕业证如何办理
一比一原版(UMN文凭证书)明尼苏达大学毕业证如何办理一比一原版(UMN文凭证书)明尼苏达大学毕业证如何办理
一比一原版(UMN文凭证书)明尼苏达大学毕业证如何办理
 
Palo Alto Cortex XDR presentation .......
Palo Alto Cortex XDR presentation .......Palo Alto Cortex XDR presentation .......
Palo Alto Cortex XDR presentation .......
 
Influence of Marketing Strategy and Market Competition on Business Plan
Influence of Marketing Strategy and Market Competition on Business PlanInfluence of Marketing Strategy and Market Competition on Business Plan
Influence of Marketing Strategy and Market Competition on Business Plan
 
The Building Blocks of QuestDB, a Time Series Database
The Building Blocks of QuestDB, a Time Series DatabaseThe Building Blocks of QuestDB, a Time Series Database
The Building Blocks of QuestDB, a Time Series Database
 
一比一原版(Coventry毕业证书)考文垂大学毕业证如何办理
一比一原版(Coventry毕业证书)考文垂大学毕业证如何办理一比一原版(Coventry毕业证书)考文垂大学毕业证如何办理
一比一原版(Coventry毕业证书)考文垂大学毕业证如何办理
 
Everything you wanted to know about LIHTC
Everything you wanted to know about LIHTCEverything you wanted to know about LIHTC
Everything you wanted to know about LIHTC
 
06-12-2024-BudapestDataForum-BuildingReal-timePipelineswithFLaNK AIM
06-12-2024-BudapestDataForum-BuildingReal-timePipelineswithFLaNK AIM06-12-2024-BudapestDataForum-BuildingReal-timePipelineswithFLaNK AIM
06-12-2024-BudapestDataForum-BuildingReal-timePipelineswithFLaNK AIM
 
My burning issue is homelessness K.C.M.O.
My burning issue is homelessness K.C.M.O.My burning issue is homelessness K.C.M.O.
My burning issue is homelessness K.C.M.O.
 

Demographic Speculation on Karachi by Haris Gazdar

  • 1. DEMOGRAPHIC SPECULATION ON KARACHI Haris Gazdar researchcollective.org © Collective for Social Science Research
  • 2. Outline •Population trends since 1980s and projections •Ethnic distribution and projections •Implications © Collective for Social Science Research
  • 3. Long trends in population size Source: Population Census, various © Collective for Social Science Research
  • 4. Historic trends projected Source: Author’s calculations, Population Census, various © Collective for Social Science Research
  • 5. Projections – assuming undercounting in 1998 census © Collective for Social Science Research
  • 6. Now assuming undercounting, and extraordinary blip due to war © Collective for Social Science Research
  • 7. How realistic are the exceptions? •Historic trend shows declining growth rate since 1951 –Unexceptional till 1981, good predictive power, standard method –Lower urban fertility rates: 3 vs 4.5 –Absolute numbers of migrants rising, but as a proportion of population declining: 46% in 1981, 24% in 1998 •First exception –Undercounted 1.375 million, or 10 per cent of population –Afghans, ethnic Bengalis/Burmese? •Second exception –Implies not one-off displacement, but continuous, because assuming higher growth rates over 2 decades –Over 5.5 million EXTRA migrants between 2003 and 2009 © Collective for Social Science Research
  • 8. Ethnic distribution – unexceptional historic trends Population: 14 million in 2011, 20 million in 2025 © Collective for Social Science Research
  • 9. Ethnic distribution – 1 exception Population: 17 million in 2011, 25 million in 2025 © Collective for Social Science Research
  • 10. Ethnic distribution – 2 exceptions Population: 19 million in 2011, 32 million in 2025 © Collective for Social Science Research
  • 11. Implications •Need firmer basis for exceptions from historic trends than has been provided thus far –All periods are exceptional, and trends take this in, when baseline numbers are big •Resource allocation politics is mixed up –If Karachi is bigger than we thought, then Urdu-speaking proportion is smaller that we thought, and vice versa –If Pashto-speaking population is bigger than we thought, then it is correspondingly smaller in KP/FATA •A highly plural multi-ethnic future is inevitable –The city’s heritage is that of a cosmopolitan centre, and return to that –Older districts like South already plural – rest of the city is catching up –Inevitability of politics of inclusion/negotiation, if want to avoid conflict –Urban governance needs to proactively support/celebrate ethnic plurality, rather than ignore it © Collective for Social Science Research