This document analyzes population trends and projections for Karachi, Pakistan. It discusses three projections for Karachi's population in 2011 and 2025: 1) assuming the 1998 census undercounted the population, 2) also accounting for increased migration during a war, and 3) accounting for both exceptions. The implications are that stronger evidence is needed to justify deviations from historic trends, population estimates impact ethnic and resource politics, and Karachi will inevitably become more multi-ethnic requiring inclusive urban governance.