SlideShare a Scribd company logo
Imperatives for a Holistic
African Urbanisation Agenda

UN Habitat, ‘Take Off’ Conference,
Nairobi, Dec 2013
Prof Susan Parnell
University of Cape Town (Geography and African Centre for Cities)
Competing Views on African Urbanisation
Urban bias

Circular migration

Urban growth

Analysis
Cities get too much
attention given that rural
poverty is most extreme

Analysis
Poverty causes people to
move between town and
countryside vs split
livelihoods causes poverty

Analysis
Cities are where the
majority live
Cities offer the best
possibilities for poverty
mitigation, growth &
sustainability

Policy responses:
•Facilitate movement and
split liveihood strategies

Policy responses:
•Improve urban planning
and governance
•Introduce urban welfare
regimes/tax/incentives
•End urban bias and influx
controls
•Build sustainable, resilient
and equitable urban places

Urbanisation without
industrialisation is bad
Policy responses:
• Rural/agricultural
development
•Protect the peasantry
•Equalize rural/urban
service levels
•Prevent urbanisation

•Don’t force the poor to
hold 2 bases
Urban growth and
urbanisation will shape the
development challenges of the
21st C

ASSUMPTION: CITIES HAVE TO
DOMINATE THE NEW
DEVELOPMENT AGENDA
•
•
•

Rural poverty will not disappear
Some (circular) migration is inevitable
Cities will grow and become even more important.

CITIES WHERE, INCREASINGLY, THE MAJORITY
OF PEOPLE LIVE, WORK and CONSUME HAVE
BEEN UNDERREPRESENTED IN THE
DEVELOPMENT AGENDA.

–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–

Health
Infrastructure
Climate change
The economy
Social norms
Environmental risk profile
Conflict patterns
Politics
Demographics
Good governance
Post conflict reconstruction
Competing, overlapping and
complimentary imperatives for an
African urban agenda

• Demographic – Africa’s urban moment, a unique African
urban trajectory?
• Environment – African cities especially vulnerable?
• Economic –new middle class – the urban dividend?
• Social – urban poverty and food insecurity
• Physical– infrastructure & service needs & opportunities
• Governance – anti-urbanism, weak sub national states &
complex governance
Reorienting a development
agenda to accommodate the new
African realities and its urban
future is not as simple as it seems
1. There is no single process of
urbanisation
• Differences
between Africa
and elsewhere
• Differences
within Africa
• Differences
within regions
of a particular
African nations
Africa’s population is large (965 million in
2007) and growing fast (3.3%p.a)
Urbanization is the key overall trend

Consensus – the data is poor
and extreme caution is
necessary
Rapid growth of small and medium cities
as well as the emergence of mega city
regions requires policy flexibility
Annual growth rate of the world's cities by region and size
(1990 - 2000 around)
5.0%
Figures shown in the graph are
developing regions average.
4.0%
3.00%
3.0%
2.40%

2.49%

2.49%
1.81%

2.0%

1.0%

0.0%
Small cities
Africa

LAC

Intermediate cities
Asia

(China)

(India)

Big cities
Developing regions

Large cities
Developed regions

Total
World total

Note: cities w ith more than 100,000 inhabitants
Source: UN Statistics Division, Demographic Yearbook, UN Population Division, World Urbanization
Latin America and the Caribbean
6

5

4

Growth in urban
population share

3

Natural population
growth

2

1

0
1950- 1955- 1960- 1965- 1970- 1975- 1980- 1985- 1990- 1995- 2000- 2005- 2010- 2015- 2020- 2025- 2030- 2035- 2040- 20451955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Asia
6

The assumption that urbanisation will
reduce population growth may or may not
not hold across Africa:
The nature of the demographic transition
varies across regions, with natural
population growth a much more
important variable in Africa ….does this
Africa
matter??
6

5

5

3

2

Growth in urban
population share

4

Urban growth rates (%)

4

3

2

Natural population
growth

1

1

19
50

-1
95
19
5
55
-1
96
19
0
60
-1
96
19
5
65
-1
97
19
0
70
-1
97
19
5
75
-1
98
19
0
80
-1
98
19
5
85
-1
99
19
0
90
-1
99
19
5
95
-2
00
20
0
00
-2
00
20
5
05
-2
01
20
0
10
-2
01
20
5
15
-2
02
20
0
20
-2
02
20
5
25
-2
03
20
0
30
-2
03
20
5
35
-2
04
20
0
40
-2
04
20
5
45
-2
05
0

19
50

0

-1
19 95
55 5
-1
19 96
60 0
-1
19 96
65 5
-1
19 97
70 0
-1
19 97
75 5
-1
19 98
80 0
-1
19 98
85 5
-1
19 99
90 0
-1
19 99
95 5
-2
20 00
00 0
-2
20 00
05 5
-2
20 01
10 0
-2
20 01
15 5
-2
20 02
20 0
-2
20 02
25 5
-2
20 03
30 0
-2
20 03
35 5
-2
20 04
40 0
-2
20 04
45 5
-2
05
0

0

Growth in urban
population share
Natural population
growth
African fertility rates are high because
…
 Lack of access to
affordable health care
 Lack of education
among women
 No urban jobs, social
safety nets or security
 Patriarchy
 The widespread
commoditization of sex
Urban agendas are sensitive to absolute increases in the number
of urban residents & changes in household size
2. Environment: Cities are an integral
part of our FUTURE EARTH
Demography
Climate
change

Migration

Future Earth:
Cities are a hot spot of the interface between climate, demography, the economy, human
consumption of ecosystem service and the built environment - complexity of complexity
Every African city depends on its’
ecosystem services
Global Environmental Change … key
driver of the new African urban agenda
Natural growth of urban populations is a more significant
driver of vulnerability in Africa than migration
 The impacts of GEC African migration will be felt in
African not globally
 The impacts of GEC migration will be felt in cities not
just the countryside
 GEC challenges cities face are not simply migration
induced
Global Environmental Change raises
fundamental questions about the
African settlement system
• Rural focus of climate
adaptation work is
outmoded
• Given where growth is
focused, the national urban
system needs attenton
• Coastal City vulnerabiity
• The protective/adaptive
role of urban planning
• The importance of
upholding urban resource
integrity
3. Cities drive economic growth
The global urban profile is shifting fast.
What is the future of urban welfare, given population and
economic growth in cities of the global south?
trends

Africa has growing inequality, driven by increasing
wealth and poverty:
Gini coefficient for selected African cities
4. Urban Poverty Rates - SADC
Country

Urban
growth Rate
(%)

Urban
Poverty
(%)

Botswana

6.0

9.0

Lesotho

3.5

46.0

Malawi

6.0

54.0

Mozambique

6.3

62.0

Namibia

4.2

40.0

South Africa
(JHB)

4.1

40.0

Swaziland

5.5

66.0

Zambia

3.6

52.0

Zimbabwe

5.0

70.0
The growth of the URBAN poor shifts
the locus of food (in)security
• World Food Summits in 1996 and 2002 (and MDG No 1) made
commitment to reducing no of undernourished people (800
million) by 50% by 2015.
• 2006 Mid-Term Review of Committee on World Food Security
found “progress has been negligible.”
• 2009, following global food price hikes and world economic
crisis, FAO estimates number of food insecure exceeds 1
billion.
77% chronically food insecure
Household Food Security Status for 11 Cities
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0

77%

Food secure
Food insecure
Health implications of
an urban lifestyle
among Africa’s poor?

• Massive shift in the burden of
disease
• Urbanisation the burden of disease
become more complex
– What people eat, how they exercise
what work they do, what pollutants
they are exposed to
(water, sanitation but also air)
– Age cohorts shift
– Exposure to different risks

• Urbanisation alters what the
environmental determinants of
health are
– Crime, traffic, pollution etc

• Urbanisation shifts the nature of
the health care response and
organisation
• Urbanisation creates new
opportunities for health education
5. Infrastructure & services; urban
crisis or dividend?
African cities need effective
public infrastructure: streets
Infrastructure demand US$bn in
African cities (Pieterse and Smit, 2014)
5. Governance
African Cities have multiple actors
governing & exercising power
Key issues:
No comprehensive
urban tax base
Dual/overlapping land
tenure, zoning, land use
regulation &
enforcement
Lack of transparency and
corruption
CONCLUSION
Establishing an
urban agenda
For Africa
is imperative,
But competing
pressures means
it will not be easy
and will need
considerable political
commitment

More Related Content

What's hot

Urbanization: How city grow ?
Urbanization: How city grow ?Urbanization: How city grow ?
Urbanization: How city grow ?
Freelancing - Urban development and Planning
 
Power of partnership conference: Presentation: Multidimensional poverty index...
Power of partnership conference: Presentation: Multidimensional poverty index...Power of partnership conference: Presentation: Multidimensional poverty index...
Power of partnership conference: Presentation: Multidimensional poverty index...
The Impact Initiative
 
Multidimensional Human Poverty - New Approaches in Poverty Measurement
Multidimensional Human Poverty - New Approaches in Poverty MeasurementMultidimensional Human Poverty - New Approaches in Poverty Measurement
Multidimensional Human Poverty - New Approaches in Poverty Measurement
UNDP Eurasia
 
Miguel Niño-Zarazúa, UNU-WIDER - Social protection and malnutrition 29.10.2015
Miguel Niño-Zarazúa, UNU-WIDER - Social protection and malnutrition 29.10.2015Miguel Niño-Zarazúa, UNU-WIDER - Social protection and malnutrition 29.10.2015
Miguel Niño-Zarazúa, UNU-WIDER - Social protection and malnutrition 29.10.2015
Maa- ja metsätalousministeriö
 
Inclusion and Transformation: Examples of WIDER Research
 Inclusion and Transformation: Examples of WIDER Research Inclusion and Transformation: Examples of WIDER Research
Inclusion and Transformation: Examples of WIDER Research
UNU-WIDER
 
Urban growth
Urban growthUrban growth
Urban growth
nefertari_1984
 
Sudan and the future of African agriculture: Potential for nexus solutions
Sudan and the future of African agriculture: Potential for nexus solutionsSudan and the future of African agriculture: Potential for nexus solutions
Sudan and the future of African agriculture: Potential for nexus solutions
International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI)
 
The Emerging “Quiet Revolution” in African Agrifood Systems: Challenges for M...
The Emerging “Quiet Revolution” in African Agrifood Systems: Challenges for M...The Emerging “Quiet Revolution” in African Agrifood Systems: Challenges for M...
The Emerging “Quiet Revolution” in African Agrifood Systems: Challenges for M...
International Food Policy Research Institute - Development Strategy and Governance Division
 
Urbanization of Bangladesh
Urbanization of BangladeshUrbanization of Bangladesh
Urbanization of Bangladesh
Md Hasan
 
SSU 2208
SSU 2208SSU 2208
Statistics on Public Expenditures for Economic Development (SPEED)
Statistics on Public Expenditures for Economic Development (SPEED)Statistics on Public Expenditures for Economic Development (SPEED)
Statistics on Public Expenditures for Economic Development (SPEED)
International Food Policy Research Institute - Development Strategy and Governance Division
 
Current state of migration in the Mediterranean - Nov 2016 by OECD
Current state of migration in the Mediterranean - Nov 2016 by OECDCurrent state of migration in the Mediterranean - Nov 2016 by OECD
Current state of migration in the Mediterranean - Nov 2016 by OECD
ICMPD
 
The urban poor get poor attention
The urban poor get poor attentionThe urban poor get poor attention
The urban poor get poor attention
M S Siddiqui
 
Urbanization in the_developing_world
Urbanization in the_developing_worldUrbanization in the_developing_world
Urbanization in the_developing_world
rushyou0301
 
Migration – Why Do Cities Grow
Migration – Why Do Cities GrowMigration – Why Do Cities Grow
Migration – Why Do Cities Grow
James Foster
 
Internal Migration in China
Internal Migration in ChinaInternal Migration in China
Internal Migration in China
Lester Lim
 
Gender Equality in Rural Africa: From Commitments to Outcomes
Gender Equality in Rural Africa: From Commitments to Outcomes Gender Equality in Rural Africa: From Commitments to Outcomes
Gender Equality in Rural Africa: From Commitments to Outcomes
African Regional Strategic Analysis and Knowledge Support System (ReSAKSS)
 
Effects of rural to urban migration in Pakistan
Effects of rural to urban migration in PakistanEffects of rural to urban migration in Pakistan
Effects of rural to urban migration in Pakistan
Bahria University, Islamabad
 
Rural to urbal migration global overview
Rural to urbal migration   global overviewRural to urbal migration   global overview
Rural to urbal migration global overview
Bahria University, Islamabad
 
Launch of Growth and Poverty in Sub-Saharan Africa Book
Launch of Growth and Poverty in Sub-Saharan Africa BookLaunch of Growth and Poverty in Sub-Saharan Africa Book
Launch of Growth and Poverty in Sub-Saharan Africa Book
UNU-WIDER
 

What's hot (20)

Urbanization: How city grow ?
Urbanization: How city grow ?Urbanization: How city grow ?
Urbanization: How city grow ?
 
Power of partnership conference: Presentation: Multidimensional poverty index...
Power of partnership conference: Presentation: Multidimensional poverty index...Power of partnership conference: Presentation: Multidimensional poverty index...
Power of partnership conference: Presentation: Multidimensional poverty index...
 
Multidimensional Human Poverty - New Approaches in Poverty Measurement
Multidimensional Human Poverty - New Approaches in Poverty MeasurementMultidimensional Human Poverty - New Approaches in Poverty Measurement
Multidimensional Human Poverty - New Approaches in Poverty Measurement
 
Miguel Niño-Zarazúa, UNU-WIDER - Social protection and malnutrition 29.10.2015
Miguel Niño-Zarazúa, UNU-WIDER - Social protection and malnutrition 29.10.2015Miguel Niño-Zarazúa, UNU-WIDER - Social protection and malnutrition 29.10.2015
Miguel Niño-Zarazúa, UNU-WIDER - Social protection and malnutrition 29.10.2015
 
Inclusion and Transformation: Examples of WIDER Research
 Inclusion and Transformation: Examples of WIDER Research Inclusion and Transformation: Examples of WIDER Research
Inclusion and Transformation: Examples of WIDER Research
 
Urban growth
Urban growthUrban growth
Urban growth
 
Sudan and the future of African agriculture: Potential for nexus solutions
Sudan and the future of African agriculture: Potential for nexus solutionsSudan and the future of African agriculture: Potential for nexus solutions
Sudan and the future of African agriculture: Potential for nexus solutions
 
The Emerging “Quiet Revolution” in African Agrifood Systems: Challenges for M...
The Emerging “Quiet Revolution” in African Agrifood Systems: Challenges for M...The Emerging “Quiet Revolution” in African Agrifood Systems: Challenges for M...
The Emerging “Quiet Revolution” in African Agrifood Systems: Challenges for M...
 
Urbanization of Bangladesh
Urbanization of BangladeshUrbanization of Bangladesh
Urbanization of Bangladesh
 
SSU 2208
SSU 2208SSU 2208
SSU 2208
 
Statistics on Public Expenditures for Economic Development (SPEED)
Statistics on Public Expenditures for Economic Development (SPEED)Statistics on Public Expenditures for Economic Development (SPEED)
Statistics on Public Expenditures for Economic Development (SPEED)
 
Current state of migration in the Mediterranean - Nov 2016 by OECD
Current state of migration in the Mediterranean - Nov 2016 by OECDCurrent state of migration in the Mediterranean - Nov 2016 by OECD
Current state of migration in the Mediterranean - Nov 2016 by OECD
 
The urban poor get poor attention
The urban poor get poor attentionThe urban poor get poor attention
The urban poor get poor attention
 
Urbanization in the_developing_world
Urbanization in the_developing_worldUrbanization in the_developing_world
Urbanization in the_developing_world
 
Migration – Why Do Cities Grow
Migration – Why Do Cities GrowMigration – Why Do Cities Grow
Migration – Why Do Cities Grow
 
Internal Migration in China
Internal Migration in ChinaInternal Migration in China
Internal Migration in China
 
Gender Equality in Rural Africa: From Commitments to Outcomes
Gender Equality in Rural Africa: From Commitments to Outcomes Gender Equality in Rural Africa: From Commitments to Outcomes
Gender Equality in Rural Africa: From Commitments to Outcomes
 
Effects of rural to urban migration in Pakistan
Effects of rural to urban migration in PakistanEffects of rural to urban migration in Pakistan
Effects of rural to urban migration in Pakistan
 
Rural to urbal migration global overview
Rural to urbal migration   global overviewRural to urbal migration   global overview
Rural to urbal migration global overview
 
Launch of Growth and Poverty in Sub-Saharan Africa Book
Launch of Growth and Poverty in Sub-Saharan Africa BookLaunch of Growth and Poverty in Sub-Saharan Africa Book
Launch of Growth and Poverty in Sub-Saharan Africa Book
 

Similar to Imperatives for a holistic urban agenda

World Urbanization Prospects 2014 - UN Highlights, complete report in PDF for...
World Urbanization Prospects 2014 - UN Highlights, complete report in PDF for...World Urbanization Prospects 2014 - UN Highlights, complete report in PDF for...
World Urbanization Prospects 2014 - UN Highlights, complete report in PDF for...
Graciela Mariani
 
2014 revision of the World Urbanization Prospects
2014 revision of the World Urbanization Prospects2014 revision of the World Urbanization Prospects
2014 revision of the World Urbanization Prospects
Department of Economic and Social Affairs (UN DESA)
 
Lecture 3
Lecture 3Lecture 3
Lecture 3
Bernard Oduro
 
1...WORLD URBANIZATION..................
1...WORLD URBANIZATION..................1...WORLD URBANIZATION..................
1...WORLD URBANIZATION..................
CharuNangia
 
The state of the african cities report 2008
The state of the african cities report 2008The state of the african cities report 2008
The state of the african cities report 2008
Dr Lendy Spires
 
URBANIZATION B Lagos state university's document
URBANIZATION B Lagos state university's documentURBANIZATION B Lagos state university's document
URBANIZATION B Lagos state university's document
anatomygrandger
 
Trends in Urban Humanitarian Context in Asia _2014
Trends in Urban Humanitarian Context in Asia _2014Trends in Urban Humanitarian Context in Asia _2014
Trends in Urban Humanitarian Context in Asia _2014
Sajjad Mohammad Sajid
 
Urbanization and Emerging Issues - Land Law
Urbanization and Emerging Issues - Land LawUrbanization and Emerging Issues - Land Law
Urbanization and Emerging Issues - Land Law
Abheet Mangleek
 
Water health-and-development-african-cities-background-reading-20090702
Water health-and-development-african-cities-background-reading-20090702Water health-and-development-african-cities-background-reading-20090702
Water health-and-development-african-cities-background-reading-20090702
Dr Lendy Spires
 
Annexes
Annexes Annexes
Rural well-being: Geography of opportunities
Rural well-being: Geography of opportunitiesRural well-being: Geography of opportunities
Rural well-being: Geography of opportunities
OECDregions
 
African development-in-perspective
African development-in-perspectiveAfrican development-in-perspective
African development-in-perspective
UNU-WIDER
 
Urban Health Reading Pack A - Data and Evidence
Urban Health Reading Pack A - Data and EvidenceUrban Health Reading Pack A - Data and Evidence
Urban Health Reading Pack A - Data and Evidence
idsheart
 
urban health.pptx
urban health.pptxurban health.pptx
urban health.pptx
AsmitKatuwal
 
Urbanisation and Suburbanisation
Urbanisation and SuburbanisationUrbanisation and Suburbanisation
Urbanisation and Suburbanisation
year12blanchgeography
 
Africa: The Investors' Century
Africa: The Investors' CenturyAfrica: The Investors' Century
Africa: The Investors' Century
Emilie Debled
 
MPH1.pptx
MPH1.pptxMPH1.pptx
MPH1.pptx
MUHAMMAD UMAIR
 
Development and Poverty in Sub-Saharan Africa
Development and Poverty in Sub-Saharan AfricaDevelopment and Poverty in Sub-Saharan Africa
Development and Poverty in Sub-Saharan Africa
UNU-WIDER
 
Why to study Urbanisation ?
Why to study Urbanisation ?Why to study Urbanisation ?
Why to study Urbanisation ?
Ravikant Joshi
 
Urbanisation
UrbanisationUrbanisation
Urbanisation
SEME NSIKE
 

Similar to Imperatives for a holistic urban agenda (20)

World Urbanization Prospects 2014 - UN Highlights, complete report in PDF for...
World Urbanization Prospects 2014 - UN Highlights, complete report in PDF for...World Urbanization Prospects 2014 - UN Highlights, complete report in PDF for...
World Urbanization Prospects 2014 - UN Highlights, complete report in PDF for...
 
2014 revision of the World Urbanization Prospects
2014 revision of the World Urbanization Prospects2014 revision of the World Urbanization Prospects
2014 revision of the World Urbanization Prospects
 
Lecture 3
Lecture 3Lecture 3
Lecture 3
 
1...WORLD URBANIZATION..................
1...WORLD URBANIZATION..................1...WORLD URBANIZATION..................
1...WORLD URBANIZATION..................
 
The state of the african cities report 2008
The state of the african cities report 2008The state of the african cities report 2008
The state of the african cities report 2008
 
URBANIZATION B Lagos state university's document
URBANIZATION B Lagos state university's documentURBANIZATION B Lagos state university's document
URBANIZATION B Lagos state university's document
 
Trends in Urban Humanitarian Context in Asia _2014
Trends in Urban Humanitarian Context in Asia _2014Trends in Urban Humanitarian Context in Asia _2014
Trends in Urban Humanitarian Context in Asia _2014
 
Urbanization and Emerging Issues - Land Law
Urbanization and Emerging Issues - Land LawUrbanization and Emerging Issues - Land Law
Urbanization and Emerging Issues - Land Law
 
Water health-and-development-african-cities-background-reading-20090702
Water health-and-development-african-cities-background-reading-20090702Water health-and-development-african-cities-background-reading-20090702
Water health-and-development-african-cities-background-reading-20090702
 
Annexes
Annexes Annexes
Annexes
 
Rural well-being: Geography of opportunities
Rural well-being: Geography of opportunitiesRural well-being: Geography of opportunities
Rural well-being: Geography of opportunities
 
African development-in-perspective
African development-in-perspectiveAfrican development-in-perspective
African development-in-perspective
 
Urban Health Reading Pack A - Data and Evidence
Urban Health Reading Pack A - Data and EvidenceUrban Health Reading Pack A - Data and Evidence
Urban Health Reading Pack A - Data and Evidence
 
urban health.pptx
urban health.pptxurban health.pptx
urban health.pptx
 
Urbanisation and Suburbanisation
Urbanisation and SuburbanisationUrbanisation and Suburbanisation
Urbanisation and Suburbanisation
 
Africa: The Investors' Century
Africa: The Investors' CenturyAfrica: The Investors' Century
Africa: The Investors' Century
 
MPH1.pptx
MPH1.pptxMPH1.pptx
MPH1.pptx
 
Development and Poverty in Sub-Saharan Africa
Development and Poverty in Sub-Saharan AfricaDevelopment and Poverty in Sub-Saharan Africa
Development and Poverty in Sub-Saharan Africa
 
Why to study Urbanisation ?
Why to study Urbanisation ?Why to study Urbanisation ?
Why to study Urbanisation ?
 
Urbanisation
UrbanisationUrbanisation
Urbanisation
 

Recently uploaded

Pharmaceutics Pharmaceuticals best of brub
Pharmaceutics Pharmaceuticals best of brubPharmaceutics Pharmaceuticals best of brub
Pharmaceutics Pharmaceuticals best of brub
danielkiash986
 
Elevate Your Nonprofit's Online Presence_ A Guide to Effective SEO Strategies...
Elevate Your Nonprofit's Online Presence_ A Guide to Effective SEO Strategies...Elevate Your Nonprofit's Online Presence_ A Guide to Effective SEO Strategies...
Elevate Your Nonprofit's Online Presence_ A Guide to Effective SEO Strategies...
TechSoup
 
Educational Technology in the Health Sciences
Educational Technology in the Health SciencesEducational Technology in the Health Sciences
Educational Technology in the Health Sciences
Iris Thiele Isip-Tan
 
Standardized tool for Intelligence test.
Standardized tool for Intelligence test.Standardized tool for Intelligence test.
Standardized tool for Intelligence test.
deepaannamalai16
 
How to deliver Powerpoint Presentations.pptx
How to deliver Powerpoint  Presentations.pptxHow to deliver Powerpoint  Presentations.pptx
How to deliver Powerpoint Presentations.pptx
HajraNaeem15
 
Andreas Schleicher presents PISA 2022 Volume III - Creative Thinking - 18 Jun...
Andreas Schleicher presents PISA 2022 Volume III - Creative Thinking - 18 Jun...Andreas Schleicher presents PISA 2022 Volume III - Creative Thinking - 18 Jun...
Andreas Schleicher presents PISA 2022 Volume III - Creative Thinking - 18 Jun...
EduSkills OECD
 
REASIGNACION 2024 UGEL CHUPACA 2024 UGEL CHUPACA.pdf
REASIGNACION 2024 UGEL CHUPACA 2024 UGEL CHUPACA.pdfREASIGNACION 2024 UGEL CHUPACA 2024 UGEL CHUPACA.pdf
REASIGNACION 2024 UGEL CHUPACA 2024 UGEL CHUPACA.pdf
giancarloi8888
 
skeleton System.pdf (skeleton system wow)
skeleton System.pdf (skeleton system wow)skeleton System.pdf (skeleton system wow)
skeleton System.pdf (skeleton system wow)
Mohammad Al-Dhahabi
 
Traditional Musical Instruments of Arunachal Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh - RAYH...
Traditional Musical Instruments of Arunachal Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh - RAYH...Traditional Musical Instruments of Arunachal Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh - RAYH...
Traditional Musical Instruments of Arunachal Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh - RAYH...
imrankhan141184
 
Level 3 NCEA - NZ: A Nation In the Making 1872 - 1900 SML.ppt
Level 3 NCEA - NZ: A  Nation In the Making 1872 - 1900 SML.pptLevel 3 NCEA - NZ: A  Nation In the Making 1872 - 1900 SML.ppt
Level 3 NCEA - NZ: A Nation In the Making 1872 - 1900 SML.ppt
Henry Hollis
 
Leveraging Generative AI to Drive Nonprofit Innovation
Leveraging Generative AI to Drive Nonprofit InnovationLeveraging Generative AI to Drive Nonprofit Innovation
Leveraging Generative AI to Drive Nonprofit Innovation
TechSoup
 
Gender and Mental Health - Counselling and Family Therapy Applications and In...
Gender and Mental Health - Counselling and Family Therapy Applications and In...Gender and Mental Health - Counselling and Family Therapy Applications and In...
Gender and Mental Health - Counselling and Family Therapy Applications and In...
PsychoTech Services
 
What is Digital Literacy? A guest blog from Andy McLaughlin, University of Ab...
What is Digital Literacy? A guest blog from Andy McLaughlin, University of Ab...What is Digital Literacy? A guest blog from Andy McLaughlin, University of Ab...
What is Digital Literacy? A guest blog from Andy McLaughlin, University of Ab...
GeorgeMilliken2
 
How to Setup Warehouse & Location in Odoo 17 Inventory
How to Setup Warehouse & Location in Odoo 17 InventoryHow to Setup Warehouse & Location in Odoo 17 Inventory
How to Setup Warehouse & Location in Odoo 17 Inventory
Celine George
 
MDP on air pollution of class 8 year 2024-2025
MDP on air pollution of class 8 year 2024-2025MDP on air pollution of class 8 year 2024-2025
MDP on air pollution of class 8 year 2024-2025
khuleseema60
 
spot a liar (Haiqa 146).pptx Technical writhing and presentation skills
spot a liar (Haiqa 146).pptx Technical writhing and presentation skillsspot a liar (Haiqa 146).pptx Technical writhing and presentation skills
spot a liar (Haiqa 146).pptx Technical writhing and presentation skills
haiqairshad
 
Pengantar Penggunaan Flutter - Dart programming language1.pptx
Pengantar Penggunaan Flutter - Dart programming language1.pptxPengantar Penggunaan Flutter - Dart programming language1.pptx
Pengantar Penggunaan Flutter - Dart programming language1.pptx
Fajar Baskoro
 
BBR 2024 Summer Sessions Interview Training
BBR  2024 Summer Sessions Interview TrainingBBR  2024 Summer Sessions Interview Training
BBR 2024 Summer Sessions Interview Training
Katrina Pritchard
 
Temple of Asclepius in Thrace. Excavation results
Temple of Asclepius in Thrace. Excavation resultsTemple of Asclepius in Thrace. Excavation results
Temple of Asclepius in Thrace. Excavation results
Krassimira Luka
 
Bonku-Babus-Friend by Sathyajith Ray (9)
Bonku-Babus-Friend by Sathyajith Ray  (9)Bonku-Babus-Friend by Sathyajith Ray  (9)
Bonku-Babus-Friend by Sathyajith Ray (9)
nitinpv4ai
 

Recently uploaded (20)

Pharmaceutics Pharmaceuticals best of brub
Pharmaceutics Pharmaceuticals best of brubPharmaceutics Pharmaceuticals best of brub
Pharmaceutics Pharmaceuticals best of brub
 
Elevate Your Nonprofit's Online Presence_ A Guide to Effective SEO Strategies...
Elevate Your Nonprofit's Online Presence_ A Guide to Effective SEO Strategies...Elevate Your Nonprofit's Online Presence_ A Guide to Effective SEO Strategies...
Elevate Your Nonprofit's Online Presence_ A Guide to Effective SEO Strategies...
 
Educational Technology in the Health Sciences
Educational Technology in the Health SciencesEducational Technology in the Health Sciences
Educational Technology in the Health Sciences
 
Standardized tool for Intelligence test.
Standardized tool for Intelligence test.Standardized tool for Intelligence test.
Standardized tool for Intelligence test.
 
How to deliver Powerpoint Presentations.pptx
How to deliver Powerpoint  Presentations.pptxHow to deliver Powerpoint  Presentations.pptx
How to deliver Powerpoint Presentations.pptx
 
Andreas Schleicher presents PISA 2022 Volume III - Creative Thinking - 18 Jun...
Andreas Schleicher presents PISA 2022 Volume III - Creative Thinking - 18 Jun...Andreas Schleicher presents PISA 2022 Volume III - Creative Thinking - 18 Jun...
Andreas Schleicher presents PISA 2022 Volume III - Creative Thinking - 18 Jun...
 
REASIGNACION 2024 UGEL CHUPACA 2024 UGEL CHUPACA.pdf
REASIGNACION 2024 UGEL CHUPACA 2024 UGEL CHUPACA.pdfREASIGNACION 2024 UGEL CHUPACA 2024 UGEL CHUPACA.pdf
REASIGNACION 2024 UGEL CHUPACA 2024 UGEL CHUPACA.pdf
 
skeleton System.pdf (skeleton system wow)
skeleton System.pdf (skeleton system wow)skeleton System.pdf (skeleton system wow)
skeleton System.pdf (skeleton system wow)
 
Traditional Musical Instruments of Arunachal Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh - RAYH...
Traditional Musical Instruments of Arunachal Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh - RAYH...Traditional Musical Instruments of Arunachal Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh - RAYH...
Traditional Musical Instruments of Arunachal Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh - RAYH...
 
Level 3 NCEA - NZ: A Nation In the Making 1872 - 1900 SML.ppt
Level 3 NCEA - NZ: A  Nation In the Making 1872 - 1900 SML.pptLevel 3 NCEA - NZ: A  Nation In the Making 1872 - 1900 SML.ppt
Level 3 NCEA - NZ: A Nation In the Making 1872 - 1900 SML.ppt
 
Leveraging Generative AI to Drive Nonprofit Innovation
Leveraging Generative AI to Drive Nonprofit InnovationLeveraging Generative AI to Drive Nonprofit Innovation
Leveraging Generative AI to Drive Nonprofit Innovation
 
Gender and Mental Health - Counselling and Family Therapy Applications and In...
Gender and Mental Health - Counselling and Family Therapy Applications and In...Gender and Mental Health - Counselling and Family Therapy Applications and In...
Gender and Mental Health - Counselling and Family Therapy Applications and In...
 
What is Digital Literacy? A guest blog from Andy McLaughlin, University of Ab...
What is Digital Literacy? A guest blog from Andy McLaughlin, University of Ab...What is Digital Literacy? A guest blog from Andy McLaughlin, University of Ab...
What is Digital Literacy? A guest blog from Andy McLaughlin, University of Ab...
 
How to Setup Warehouse & Location in Odoo 17 Inventory
How to Setup Warehouse & Location in Odoo 17 InventoryHow to Setup Warehouse & Location in Odoo 17 Inventory
How to Setup Warehouse & Location in Odoo 17 Inventory
 
MDP on air pollution of class 8 year 2024-2025
MDP on air pollution of class 8 year 2024-2025MDP on air pollution of class 8 year 2024-2025
MDP on air pollution of class 8 year 2024-2025
 
spot a liar (Haiqa 146).pptx Technical writhing and presentation skills
spot a liar (Haiqa 146).pptx Technical writhing and presentation skillsspot a liar (Haiqa 146).pptx Technical writhing and presentation skills
spot a liar (Haiqa 146).pptx Technical writhing and presentation skills
 
Pengantar Penggunaan Flutter - Dart programming language1.pptx
Pengantar Penggunaan Flutter - Dart programming language1.pptxPengantar Penggunaan Flutter - Dart programming language1.pptx
Pengantar Penggunaan Flutter - Dart programming language1.pptx
 
BBR 2024 Summer Sessions Interview Training
BBR  2024 Summer Sessions Interview TrainingBBR  2024 Summer Sessions Interview Training
BBR 2024 Summer Sessions Interview Training
 
Temple of Asclepius in Thrace. Excavation results
Temple of Asclepius in Thrace. Excavation resultsTemple of Asclepius in Thrace. Excavation results
Temple of Asclepius in Thrace. Excavation results
 
Bonku-Babus-Friend by Sathyajith Ray (9)
Bonku-Babus-Friend by Sathyajith Ray  (9)Bonku-Babus-Friend by Sathyajith Ray  (9)
Bonku-Babus-Friend by Sathyajith Ray (9)
 

Imperatives for a holistic urban agenda

  • 1. Imperatives for a Holistic African Urbanisation Agenda UN Habitat, ‘Take Off’ Conference, Nairobi, Dec 2013 Prof Susan Parnell University of Cape Town (Geography and African Centre for Cities)
  • 2.
  • 3. Competing Views on African Urbanisation Urban bias Circular migration Urban growth Analysis Cities get too much attention given that rural poverty is most extreme Analysis Poverty causes people to move between town and countryside vs split livelihoods causes poverty Analysis Cities are where the majority live Cities offer the best possibilities for poverty mitigation, growth & sustainability Policy responses: •Facilitate movement and split liveihood strategies Policy responses: •Improve urban planning and governance •Introduce urban welfare regimes/tax/incentives •End urban bias and influx controls •Build sustainable, resilient and equitable urban places Urbanisation without industrialisation is bad Policy responses: • Rural/agricultural development •Protect the peasantry •Equalize rural/urban service levels •Prevent urbanisation •Don’t force the poor to hold 2 bases
  • 4. Urban growth and urbanisation will shape the development challenges of the 21st C ASSUMPTION: CITIES HAVE TO DOMINATE THE NEW DEVELOPMENT AGENDA • • • Rural poverty will not disappear Some (circular) migration is inevitable Cities will grow and become even more important. CITIES WHERE, INCREASINGLY, THE MAJORITY OF PEOPLE LIVE, WORK and CONSUME HAVE BEEN UNDERREPRESENTED IN THE DEVELOPMENT AGENDA. – – – – – – – – – – – Health Infrastructure Climate change The economy Social norms Environmental risk profile Conflict patterns Politics Demographics Good governance Post conflict reconstruction
  • 5. Competing, overlapping and complimentary imperatives for an African urban agenda • Demographic – Africa’s urban moment, a unique African urban trajectory? • Environment – African cities especially vulnerable? • Economic –new middle class – the urban dividend? • Social – urban poverty and food insecurity • Physical– infrastructure & service needs & opportunities • Governance – anti-urbanism, weak sub national states & complex governance
  • 6. Reorienting a development agenda to accommodate the new African realities and its urban future is not as simple as it seems
  • 7. 1. There is no single process of urbanisation • Differences between Africa and elsewhere • Differences within Africa • Differences within regions of a particular African nations
  • 8. Africa’s population is large (965 million in 2007) and growing fast (3.3%p.a) Urbanization is the key overall trend Consensus – the data is poor and extreme caution is necessary
  • 9. Rapid growth of small and medium cities as well as the emergence of mega city regions requires policy flexibility Annual growth rate of the world's cities by region and size (1990 - 2000 around) 5.0% Figures shown in the graph are developing regions average. 4.0% 3.00% 3.0% 2.40% 2.49% 2.49% 1.81% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% Small cities Africa LAC Intermediate cities Asia (China) (India) Big cities Developing regions Large cities Developed regions Total World total Note: cities w ith more than 100,000 inhabitants Source: UN Statistics Division, Demographic Yearbook, UN Population Division, World Urbanization
  • 10. Latin America and the Caribbean 6 5 4 Growth in urban population share 3 Natural population growth 2 1 0 1950- 1955- 1960- 1965- 1970- 1975- 1980- 1985- 1990- 1995- 2000- 2005- 2010- 2015- 2020- 2025- 2030- 2035- 2040- 20451955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Asia 6 The assumption that urbanisation will reduce population growth may or may not not hold across Africa: The nature of the demographic transition varies across regions, with natural population growth a much more important variable in Africa ….does this Africa matter?? 6 5 5 3 2 Growth in urban population share 4 Urban growth rates (%) 4 3 2 Natural population growth 1 1 19 50 -1 95 19 5 55 -1 96 19 0 60 -1 96 19 5 65 -1 97 19 0 70 -1 97 19 5 75 -1 98 19 0 80 -1 98 19 5 85 -1 99 19 0 90 -1 99 19 5 95 -2 00 20 0 00 -2 00 20 5 05 -2 01 20 0 10 -2 01 20 5 15 -2 02 20 0 20 -2 02 20 5 25 -2 03 20 0 30 -2 03 20 5 35 -2 04 20 0 40 -2 04 20 5 45 -2 05 0 19 50 0 -1 19 95 55 5 -1 19 96 60 0 -1 19 96 65 5 -1 19 97 70 0 -1 19 97 75 5 -1 19 98 80 0 -1 19 98 85 5 -1 19 99 90 0 -1 19 99 95 5 -2 20 00 00 0 -2 20 00 05 5 -2 20 01 10 0 -2 20 01 15 5 -2 20 02 20 0 -2 20 02 25 5 -2 20 03 30 0 -2 20 03 35 5 -2 20 04 40 0 -2 20 04 45 5 -2 05 0 0 Growth in urban population share Natural population growth
  • 11. African fertility rates are high because …  Lack of access to affordable health care  Lack of education among women  No urban jobs, social safety nets or security  Patriarchy  The widespread commoditization of sex
  • 12. Urban agendas are sensitive to absolute increases in the number of urban residents & changes in household size
  • 13. 2. Environment: Cities are an integral part of our FUTURE EARTH Demography Climate change Migration Future Earth: Cities are a hot spot of the interface between climate, demography, the economy, human consumption of ecosystem service and the built environment - complexity of complexity
  • 14. Every African city depends on its’ ecosystem services
  • 15. Global Environmental Change … key driver of the new African urban agenda Natural growth of urban populations is a more significant driver of vulnerability in Africa than migration  The impacts of GEC African migration will be felt in African not globally  The impacts of GEC migration will be felt in cities not just the countryside  GEC challenges cities face are not simply migration induced
  • 16. Global Environmental Change raises fundamental questions about the African settlement system • Rural focus of climate adaptation work is outmoded • Given where growth is focused, the national urban system needs attenton • Coastal City vulnerabiity • The protective/adaptive role of urban planning • The importance of upholding urban resource integrity
  • 17. 3. Cities drive economic growth
  • 18. The global urban profile is shifting fast. What is the future of urban welfare, given population and economic growth in cities of the global south?
  • 19.
  • 20.
  • 21. trends Africa has growing inequality, driven by increasing wealth and poverty: Gini coefficient for selected African cities
  • 22. 4. Urban Poverty Rates - SADC Country Urban growth Rate (%) Urban Poverty (%) Botswana 6.0 9.0 Lesotho 3.5 46.0 Malawi 6.0 54.0 Mozambique 6.3 62.0 Namibia 4.2 40.0 South Africa (JHB) 4.1 40.0 Swaziland 5.5 66.0 Zambia 3.6 52.0 Zimbabwe 5.0 70.0
  • 23. The growth of the URBAN poor shifts the locus of food (in)security • World Food Summits in 1996 and 2002 (and MDG No 1) made commitment to reducing no of undernourished people (800 million) by 50% by 2015. • 2006 Mid-Term Review of Committee on World Food Security found “progress has been negligible.” • 2009, following global food price hikes and world economic crisis, FAO estimates number of food insecure exceeds 1 billion.
  • 24. 77% chronically food insecure Household Food Security Status for 11 Cities 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 77% Food secure Food insecure
  • 25. Health implications of an urban lifestyle among Africa’s poor? • Massive shift in the burden of disease • Urbanisation the burden of disease become more complex – What people eat, how they exercise what work they do, what pollutants they are exposed to (water, sanitation but also air) – Age cohorts shift – Exposure to different risks • Urbanisation alters what the environmental determinants of health are – Crime, traffic, pollution etc • Urbanisation shifts the nature of the health care response and organisation • Urbanisation creates new opportunities for health education
  • 26. 5. Infrastructure & services; urban crisis or dividend?
  • 27. African cities need effective public infrastructure: streets
  • 28. Infrastructure demand US$bn in African cities (Pieterse and Smit, 2014)
  • 30. African Cities have multiple actors governing & exercising power Key issues: No comprehensive urban tax base Dual/overlapping land tenure, zoning, land use regulation & enforcement Lack of transparency and corruption
  • 31. CONCLUSION Establishing an urban agenda For Africa is imperative, But competing pressures means it will not be easy and will need considerable political commitment