This document summarizes internal labor migration trends in China. It finds that the share of migrant workers without local residency rights ("non-hukou" migrants) is significant across industries in Wuhan, ranging from 40-56%. Nationwide, the floating population of internal migrants grew rapidly from 82 million in 1982 to over 140 million in 2003. By 2020, China's urban population is projected to reach 65% of the total population, around 950 million people, with 80% of urban growth coming from net rural-urban migration of around 20 million people per year. This rapid urbanization will create challenges around employment, infrastructure/housing, education, poverty and social stability.

1. Internal Labor Migration in China:
Trends, Geographical Distribution and Policies
Kam Wing Chan
Department of Geography
University of Washington
Seattle
kwchan@u.washington.edu
January 2008

4. Wuhan:
Share of Migrant Workers (Non-Hukou)
(2000 Census Data)
Industry % of employment
in that industry
Manufacturing 43
Construction 56
Social Services 50
Real Estate and Housing 40
Wuhan City (7 city districts) 46

5. Urban recreation consumption
rose at 14% p.a in 1995-2005

6. Topics
• Hukou System and Migration
Statistics
• Migration Trends
• Geography
• Policies

7. (The Household Registration System, 户口制度)
• Formally set up in 1958
• Divided population/society into two major types of households:
rural and urban
• Differential treatments of rural and urban residents
• Controlled by the police and other govt departments
• Basically an “internal passport system”
• Currently, the system serves as a benefit eligibility system; a tool
of institutional exclusion than controlling geographical mobility
• The population of a city is divided into “local” and “outside”
population.

8. Ad

9. An unlicensed school in Beijing
MIGRANT CHILDREN FALL
THROUGH THE CRACKS

10. Two types of internal migrants
• Hukou Migrants: migrants with local
residency rights
• Non-hukou Migrant: migrants without
local residency rights
– also called: non-hukou population, or more
generally, “floating population”

12. Wuhan:
Share of Non-Hukou Migrant Workers
(2000 Census Data)
Industry % of Employment
Manufacturing 43
Construction 56
Social Services 50
Real Estate and Housing 40
Wuhan City (7 city districts) 46

13. Trends

14. Migration Trends:
Floating Population, 1982-2003
(Estimates in Millions)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
1985 1988 1992 1994 1997 1999 2003

16. Level of Urbanization, 1990-2005
20
25
30
35
40
45
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004
%ofTotalPopulation

17. Figure 3 Urban Growth and Migration Rates
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
1990 1995 2000
PercentofUrbanPopulation
Urban Growth
Rate
Urban Natural
Increase Rates
Net Urban In-
migration Rate
Source: Chan and Hu (2003)
True rural-
urban migration

19. Geography

23. The 30 Largest Inter-provincial Migration Flows,
1995-2000

26. Policies
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
0.45
0.50
0.55
0.60
0.65
0.70
1990
1995
2000a
2000b
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
CVdf
CVdj
Group 1
Group 2
Notes: CV’s for 1990, 1995 and 2000a are based on old GDP data in
1990 constant prices; those for 2000b-2006 are based on new GDP
data in 2000 constant prices. The two series are not directly
comparable.
Interprovincial Inequality,
1990–2006

28. Urban Growth Scenarios
(Population in Millions)
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
National Population
assuming 0.7% growth per year 1265.8 1306.3 1352.7 1400.7 1450.4
Population Increase per year 8.1 9.3 9.6 9.9
URBAN SCENARIO 1
assuming 3.5% growth per year
Urban Population 458.6 561.6 667.0 792.2 940.9
Urban % 36.2 43.0 49.3 56.6 64.9
Urban Population Increase per year 20.6 21.1 25.0 29.7
Urban Natural Increase (0.55%) per year 2.5 3.1 3.7 4.4
Net Rural-urban Migration per year 18.1 18.0 21.3 25.3
URBAN SCENARIO 2
assuming 4% growth p.a. in 2005-2010,
and 3.5% p.a. after
Urban Population 458.6 561.6 683.3 811.5 963.8
Urban % 36.2 43.0 50.5 57.9 66.5
Urban Population Increase per year 20.6 24.3 25.6 30.5
Urban Natural Increase (0.55%) per year 2.5 3.1 3.8 4.5
Net Rural-urban Migration per year 18.1 21.2 21.8 25.9
RURAL SCENARIO 1
Scenario 1
Rural Population 807.3 744.7 685.7 608.5 509.5
Rural % 63.8 57.0 50.7 43.4 35.1
Rural Population Increase per year -12.5 -11.8 -15.4 -19.8
RURAL SCENARIO 2
Rural Population 807.3 744.7 669.4 589.2 486.6
Rural % 63.8 57.0 49.5 42.1 33.5
Rural Population Increase per year -12.5 -15.1 -16.0 -20.5
Known Forecast

29. Main points:
• Urban Population
– 2005: 43% (560M);
– 2010: 50% (675M)
– 2020: 65% (950M)
• Increase of about 400M in
the next 15 years
• 80% from net rural-urban
migration and
reclassification, about 20M
per year 200-250 peasant
migrants by 2020
Urban Growth Scenarios, 2005-2020
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
PopulationinMillions
Nationa;
urban2
urban1

30. Implications of Urban Growth
• Employment?
– Jobs for the 150 M
unemployed rural
labor
– Many urban jobs
currently off-limit to
migrants

31. Implications of Urban Growth
• Infrastructure
and housing
– affordable
housing?
– education for
kids?
– who pays?
financing?

32. Implications of Urban Growth
• Urban poverty, public
safety and social
stability
– wage arrears, unfair
compensation for land
expropriated, etc
– 200 M permanent
urban underclass?
– protests and riots

33. Thank you!