Weiping Wu, Professor and Chair, Urban & Environmental Policy and Planning, Tufts University presentation on China's Urban Transformation in WRI Cities Research Seminar Series, February 4, 2016 at WRI Ross Center for Sustainable Cities

1. WEIPING WU, PROFESSOR AND CHAIR, URBAN AND ENVIRONMENTAL POLICY & PLANNING, TUFTS UNIVERSITY
CHINA’S URBAN
TRANSFORMATION
WRI Cities Research Seminar Series — February 4, 2016
Weiping Wu
Tufts University

2. China’s UrbanTransformation
Weiping Wu
Professor and Chair
Urban and Environmental Policy & Planning
Tufts University
weiping.wu@tufts.edu

3. Outline
— China’s urban system
◦ Developmental state at work
◦ Migration as key driver
◦ Emerging urban regions
— Transformed urban form
◦ Rising motorization
◦ Increasing spatial differentiation
◦ Leap-frog expansion

4. China’s urbanization at a glance
~1980 ~2010 % change
Urbanization level (%) 19.4 51.0 162.9
Number of cities 193 657 240.4
Eastern region 69 344 398.6
Central region 84 218 159.5
Western region 40 95 137.5
Cities by population size
Super large (> 2 million) - 42
Extra large (1-2 million) 13 82 530.8
Large (0.5 -1 million) 27 110 307.4
Small & medium (< 0.5 million) 153 423 176.5
Agriculture’s share in employment (%) 64 39 -39.1
Ratio of urban-rural per capita income 2.6 3.2 23.1

5. Context of China’s urbanization
— Marketization – command to market
economy
— Decentralization – central-local fiscal
relations
— Industrialization – agricultural to
manufacturing economy
— Migration – rural-based to urban-based
society
— Globalization – autarky to open regime

6. Urbanization and regions

7. Defining urban
— Urban place
◦ Cities (657 in 2010)
– Criteria changed in 1955, 1963, 1984, 1986,& 1993
– Generally,population greater than 100,000
◦ Officially designated towns (19,410)
– Population over 20,000
– At least 10 percent is non-agricultural
— Urban person
◦ Nonagricultural v. agricultural
◦ Locally registered v. migrants

8. Central policies at work
— “Cities leading counties” policy in 1990s
◦ More than 1,200 counties under 280 cities
— Reclassification of counties as cities in
1983, 1986, and 1993) or as urban
districts
— Case in point – Chongqing
◦ Original city merged with 40 surrounding
counties in 1997
◦ Population changed from 15 to 30 million and
land area multiplied

9. Is Chongqing China’s largest city?
http://www.fnetravel.com/travel_info/english/chongqing-info/images/map-chongqing.gif

10. Migration as key driver
— Unprecedented magnitude
◦ >200 million – primarily from rural-urban
— Primarily short-distance migration
◦ 70 percent within province
— Coastal region as key destination
◦ Much inter-provincial migration originates from
central and western regions
— Circular or seasonal migration
◦ Primarily aged 15-34, males outnumber females,
and family migration about a third

11. Migration as key driver
1995-2000 (Source:Fan 2005)
2005-2010 (Source:Chan 2012)

12. Two largest cities at a glance
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Beijing
Migrant population (million) 0.54 1.81 2.56 3.57 7.05
Total population (million) 10.86 12.51 13.64 15.38 19.62
% migrant population 5.0 14.5 18.8 23.2 35.9
Growth rate of migrants (%) 235.2 41.4 39.5 97.5
Growth rate of total pop (%) 15.2 9.0 12.8 27.6
Shanghai
Migrant population (million) 1.06 2.51 3.06 5.40 8.98
Total population (million) 13.34 14.14 16.41 18.81 23.02
% migrant population 7.9 17.8 18.6 28.7 39.0
Growth rate of migrants (%) 136.8 21.9 76.5 66.3
Growth rate of total pop (%) 6.0 16.1 14.6 22.4

13. Main destinations of FDI, 2008

14. Reconfiguration of urban space
— No longer the egalitarian,low-profile, and
walking-scale socialist city
— Linkage between work and residence has
all but disappeared
◦ End of cellular-type of housing built around work
units
— Unprecedented residential mobility
◦ Rising role of real estate development
◦ Cessation of work-unit compounds
◦ Less pedestrian and bicycle oriented

15. Changing modes in Shanghai
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1982 1986 1995 2004
Other
Walking
Bicycle
Motorcycle
Car
Taxi
Public transit

16. Increasing spatial differentiation
— Concentration of migrants
◦ Augmented by social networks that sustain
migration flows
— Return of pre-socialist divisions
◦ Migrants dominate poorer neighborhoods in less
desirable locations
— Satellite or “daughter” communities of
migrants
◦ ‘Urban villages’

19. Spatial distribution
Between 2000 and 2010,
many neighborhoods became
dominated by migrants,
especially outside central city

20. Sojourners in the city
— Positioning migrants in urban society
◦ Labor is desired but presence unwanted
◦ Limited access to urban benefits
— Most migrants trapped in two housing
types in spite of high mobility rates
◦ Renting private housing
◦ Living in dorm or workshed.
— Few rural migrants make transition from
renters to owners after years in city

22. Driving forces of expansion
— Incentive for local governments to covert
agricultural land to urban use to generate
revenues
◦ Financially profitable but uneconomical
— Urban v. rural land ownership regimes
— Over-allocation of land for industrial use
◦ About 27 percent, compared to 7 in Seoul and 5
in Hong Kong
◦ Industrial relocation from urban core enlarges
overall proportion

23. 1990 2000
2005 2010

24. Dilemmas
— Urban land constitutes
◦ Future extra-budgetary revenue
◦ Collateral for local borrowing
— Unsustainable source of financing
◦ Decline in land value (from real estate
irregularities) could reduce investment
◦ End of land capitalization process (circa 2021)
◦ Major source of inefficiencies, distorted
incentives, and loss of state assets

25. Dilemmas
— Negative relationship between land supply
and fiscal gap (source: Lu and Sun 2013)

26. What’s the future?
— Urban China is becoming more stratified
both within and across cities
— Urban system most likely centered
around strategically located city-regions
— Fragile human-environment relationship
severely challenged by rising urbanization
◦ Urban expansion, often in fragmented and
sprawling fashion, will intensify depletion of land,
water, and other resources

27. — T