Jagran Prakashan - Event Update, 08 Apr 2010

Event Update | Media
April 8, 2010

Prakashan
Jagran Prakashan BUY
CMP Rs121
Black Paints Jagran Green Target Price Rs160
Blackstone Group invests Rs225cr in Jagran Media: The Blackstone Group is Investment Period 12 Months
investing Rs225cr in Jagran Media Network Private Ltd (unlisted, promoter holding
Stock Info
company), which will hold a majority share (promoter holding at 63% will get
Sector Media
consolidated and transferred to this entity) in Jagran Prakashan Ltd (JPL).
Market Cap (Rs cr) 3639
After Blackstone's entry, we expect INM to completely exit: Independent News &
entry,
Beta 0.4
Media Investment Ltd (INM) had sold a 7.3% stake in Jagran Prakashan (JPL) in
52 Week High / Low 142/53
July 2009 and further sold 7.8% (23.5mn shares) in early March 2010, cutting its
current holding to 5.7% (13.5%). After Blackstone's investment in the Jagran group, Avg Daily Volume 197,889

we believe that INM (which is in severe financial trouble) will completely exit JPL. Face Value (Rs) 2

Evaluating inorganic growth/acquisitions, including Mid-day: Jagran is currently
Mid-day: BSE Sensex 17,714

evaluating a few opportunities, including Mid-day. However, discussions are at a Nifty 5,304
preliminary stage, and, at this stage, Jagran is not sure how the deal will be structured Reuters Code JAGP.BO
(equity, strategic alliance or a marketing tie-up), if so, with Mid-day. Bloomberg Code JAGP@IN

Buy, Target Price
Underperformance gives a good entry point; Maintain Buy, with a Target Price of
Shareholding Pattern (%)
Rs160: Over the last 3 months, Jagran has underperformed its peers by ~5% and
the BSE Sensex by 10%. We cite two major reasons: 1) a further stake sale by INM Promoters 55.3
(likely in one last tranche), and 2) DB Corp's launch in Bihar/Jharkhand (impact MF / Banks / Indian FIs 16.9
would be felt only in FY2012E; we believe that Jagran is a strong No.2 in these FII / NRIs / OCBs 4.5
markets). We believe that this underperformance gives a good entry point for
Indian Public / Others 23.3
investors to play the regional media theme. We maintain Jagran as our Top Pick in
Print, owing to its dominant position in the Hindi Belt, increasing colour ad inventory Abs. (%) 3m 1yr 3yr
and its ability to attract a high amount of local advertising. We maintain a Buy, with
Buy,
Sensex 1.0 64.9 34.4
Target Price
a Target Price of Rs160, based on a P/E multiple of 20x FY2012E (in-line with
historical valuations). Jagran (9.0) 106.1 65.5

Key Financials
Y/E March FY2009 FY2010E FY2011E FY2012E
Net Sales 823 928 1,092 1,267
% chg 9.8 12.7 17.7 16.0
Profit
Net Profit 91.6 173.0 201.3 240.2
% chg (6.6) 88.8 16.4 19.3
OPM (%) 19.0 29.3 29.7 30.2
EPS (Rs) 3.0 5.7 6.7 8.0
P/E (x) 39.7 21.0 18.1 15.1
Anand Shah
P/BV (x) 6.5 6.0 5.5 5.0
Tel: 022 - 4040 3800 Ext: 334
RoE (%) 16.4 28.5 30.5 33.2 E-mail: anand.shah@angeltrade.com
RoCE (%) 15.7 28.4 32.9 37.4
Kapur
Chitrangda Kapur
EV/Sales (x) 4.5 4.0 3.4 2.9
Tel: 022 - 4040 3800 Ext: 323
EV/EBITDA (x) 23.6 13.7 11.5 9.7 E-mail: chitrangdar.kapur@angeltrade.com
Source: Company, Angel Research

Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report

Jagran Prakashan | Event Update

Our take on Blackstone's investment and inorganic growth
opportunities
Blackstone Group invests Rs225cr in Jagran Media: The Blackstone Group is investing
Rs225cr in Jagran Media Network Private Ltd (unlisted, promoter holding company),
which will hold a majority share (promoter holding at 63% will get consolidated and
transferred to this entity) in Jagran Prakashan Ltd (JPL). JNMPL will file for the necessary
approvals for the investment with the Foreign Investment Promotion Board (FIPB).

We believe that the deal will not have any material impact on the listed entity JPL, as
the dilution will happen in the promoter holding company JNMPL (quantum of dilution
not disclosed by the management).

After Blackstone's entry, we expect INM to completely exit: In early March 2010,
entry,
Independent News & Media Investment Ltd (INM) sold 7.8% (23.5mn shares) of Jagran
Prakashan (JPL), cutting its current holding to 5.7% (13.5%). The proceeds of the sale
will be used by INM to pay off its bank debts. Additionally, in July 2009, INM had sold
a 7.3% stake in JPL, cutting its stake to 13.5% (20.8%). Consequent to the recent share
sale by INM, the shareholders agreement between INM, JPL and the promoters of JPL
has been automatically terminated, and accordingly, certain restrictive provisions
(including INM's affirmative voting rights) are no longer applicable. Moreover, JPL's
Board and the shareholders are free to decide all matters without any contractual
restrictions.

After Blackstone's investment in the Jagran group, we believe that INM (which is in
severe financial trouble) will completely exit JPL (At the CMP INM's current stake of
,
5.7% is valued at ~Rs210cr), creating further headroom for foreign investment.

Evaluating inorganic growth/acquisitions, including Mid- day: Jagran is currently
Mid-day:
evaluating a few opportunities, including Mid-day. However, discussions are at a
preliminary stage, and, at this stage, Jagran is not sure how the deal will be structured
(equity, strategic alliance or a marketing tie-up), if so, with Mid-day. However, Jagran
will invest in a company only if the proposition is profit-making (even in the medium-
term), and not for any valuation arbitrage.

While Jagran is clearly a strong leader in the Hindi Belt, we believe an English publication
would definitely aid the company in terms of providing bundling solutions to advertisers
similar to its peers (DB Corp with DNA and HT Media with Hindustan Times). Moreover,
it is also exploring certain opportunities in regional media space (though confined to
print) which could also help Jagran consolidate its position in other Hindi markets.

April 8, 2010 2


Key takeaways from Concall
investor,
Jagran thrilled to have Blackstone as investor, more so for its expertise in Media:
More than money infusion, Jagran is excited about the experience and exposure that
Blackstone brings on board. Cash infused by Blackstone will be utilised by JPL (listed
entity) which is free to draw funds from the promoter holding Company (in the form of
a loan at a nominal rate of interest). The cash will be deployed over a period of time
over different activities, including planned capex, inorganic growth opportunities and
investments into new initiatives. While Blackstone was more than happy to invest directly
into the listed entity, it could not, due to a couple of reasons: 1) No headroom to invest
in JPL directly (due to Foreign holding constraint, restricted at 26% in Print Media
companies), and 2) Promoters did not want equity dilution for the other shareholders.

DB Corp entry into Bihar/Jharkhand - impact over-played: Jagran believes that it is a
over-played:
strong No.2 in Bihar/Jharkhand, behind the leader Hindustan. Moreover, in the cities
that matter, Jagran is neck-to-neck with Hindustan. While Jagran believes that
competition is likely to intensify in the region, leading to cover price cuts (cites Punjab
as an example), advertising revenue is likely to remain steady, as, in Bihar, government
ads form almost 60% of the advertising market, and it takes 18 months to establish
accounts with the government and get suitable rates. Hence, the impact will only be
seen in FY2012E.

Advertising revenue on the up-tick; rate hike very soon: Jagran is clearly witnessing a
up-tick;
strong up-tick in advertising. March 2010 has been an excellent month and the
company is confident of strong growth in FY2011E. New emerging sectors like FMCG
and Real Estate have led to volume recovery. Jagran is also likely to announce its
annual advertising rate hike in a couple of days.

Blackstone rates Jagran an excellent investment; cites five reasons:

1) Excellent Management Team: A Strong focus on Return on Invested Capital (in
excess of 20% due to high cash flows), discipline in its financial approach (unlike other
Media companies, core and consolidated EBITDA is the same, indicating no re-
investment in loss-making businesses), highly creative (e.g. I-Next), strong corporate
governance, deep second line of management, and high transparency with investors.

2) High quality publication asset in the form of Jagran Prakashan: The No.1 daily in
the country, strong in the Hindi Belt and extensive reach across markets.

3) Defensive Business Model: High barriers for readers to switch, due to localisation of
content, high amount of local advertising (60% of revenue) and a wide range of
advertisers.

4) Attractive Sector: Low Ad-intensity (ad spending to per capita income) at 0.2 to rise
to 2, driven by growth in personal consumption.

5) Significant growth opportunities from Jagran's new initiatives: I-Next and City Plus.

Exit options evaluated by Blackstone, will infuse more funds if needed: Blackstone
has worked out an exit arrangement at the holding company level. It is an investor in
Jagran for a long period of time (5-7 years). Moreover, if there are opportunities to
invest further capital at a good return on capital, it might look at deploying more
money.

April 8, 2010 3


Profit & Loss Statement Rs crore
Y/E March FY2007 FY2008 FY2009 FY2010E FY2011E FY2012E
Gross sales 598.2 749.6 823.4 928.2 1,092.3 1,267.2
Less: Excise duty - - - - - -
Net Sales 598.2 749.6 823.4 928.2 1,092.3 1,267.2
Total operating income 598.2 749.6 823.4 928.2 1,092.3 1,267.2
% chg 25.1 25.3 9.8 12.7 17.7 16.0
Total Expenditure 478.3 585.8 666.7 656.4 768.3 884.5
Cost of Materials 253.1 295.4 341.4 303.7 345.6 397.9
SG&A Expenses 76.8 91.8 93.1 102.1 123.4 143.2
Personnel 70.4 91.5 106.6 120.7 140.9 160.3
Others 78.0 107.2 125.7 129.9 158.4 183.1
EBITDA
EBITDA 119.8 163.8 156.7 271.8 324.1 382.6
% chg 64.3 36.7 (4.3) 73.4 19.2 18.1
(% of Net Sales) 20.0 21.9 19.0 29.3 29.7 30.2
Depreciation& Amortisation 23.7 33.6 38.3 49.3 54.6 59.8
EBIT 96.1 130.2 118.4 222.5 269.4 322.8
% chg 81.9 35.5 (9.1) 87.9 21.1 19.8
(% of Net Sales) 16.1 17.4 14.4 24.0 24.7 25.5
Interest & other Charges 8.5 6.0 5.9 6.3 5.9 5.2
Other Income 27.5 21.5 22.7 40.1 34.7 38.3
(% of PBT) 23.9 14.8 16.8 15.6 11.6 10.8
Share in profit of Associates - - - - - -
Recurring PBT 115.2 145.7 135.2 256.2 298.3 355.9
% chg 136.1 26.6 (7.2) 89.5 16.4 19.3
Prior Period & Ext. Exp./(Inc.) - - - - - -
PBT (reported) 115.2 145.7 135.2 256.2 298.3 355.9
Tax 39.0 47.6 43.6 83.3 96.9 115.7
(% of PBT) 33.8 32.7 32.2 32.5 32.5 32.5
PAT (reported) 76.2 98.1 91.6 173.0 201.3 240.2
Add: Share earnings of associate - - - - - -
Less: Minority interest (MI) - - - - - -
PAT after MI (reported) 76.2 98.1 91.6 173.0 201.3 240.2
ADJ. PA
ADJ. PAT 76.2 98.1 91.6 173.0 201.3 240.2
% chg 119.6 28.7 (6.6) 88.8 16.4 19.3
(% of Net Sales) 12.7 13.1 11.1 18.6 18.4 19.0
Basic EPS (Rs) 2.5 3.3 3.0 5.7 6.7 8.0
Fully Diluted EPS (Rs) 2.5 3.3 3.0 5.7 6.7 8.0
% chg 119.6 28.7 (6.6) 88.8 16.4 19.3

April 8, 2010 4


Balance Sheet Rs crore

SOURCES OF FUNDS

Equity Share Capital 60.2 60.2 60.2 60.2 60.2 60.2

Preference Capital - - - - - -

Reserves& Surplus 450.9 478.5 499.7 545.8 599.1 663.2

Funds
Shareholders Funds 511.1 538.8 559.9 606.0 659.4 723.4

Minority Interest - - - - - -

Total Loans 106.7 79.1 141.5 126.5 106.5 86.5

Deferred Tax Liability 38.4 53.1 52.1 52.1 52.1 52.1

Total Liabilities 656.2 670.9 753.5 784.5 817.9 862.0

APPLICATION OF FUNDS
APPLICATION

Gross Block 321.2 391.5 479.5 580.1 642.6 704.0

Less: Acc. Depreciation 107.2 134.7 151.3 200.6 255.2 315.0

Net Block 214.0 256.8 328.2 379.5 387.4 388.9

Capital Work-in-Progress 50.6 47.9 70.7 87.0 96.4 105.6

Goodwill - - - - - -

Investments 144.6 183.3 156.8 156.8 156.8 156.8

Current Assets 352.7 307.3 360.1 336.1 382.2 440.5

Cash 101.4 36.7 82.8 27.7 28.3 34.1

Loans & Advances 104.6 77.4 86.9 102.1 122.9 145.7

Other 146.8 193.2 190.4 206.3 231.0 260.7

Current liabilities 105.8 124.4 162.4 174.9 204.8 229.9

Net Current Assets 246.9 182.9 197.7 161.2 177.4 210.6

Mis. Exp. not written off 0.2 0.1 - - - -

Total Assets 656.2 670.9 753.5 784.5 817.9 862.0

April 8, 2010 5


Cash Flow Statement Rs crore

Profit before tax 115.2 145.7 135.2 256.2 298.3 355.9

Depreciation 23.7 33.6 38.3 49.3 54.6 59.8

Change in Working Capital (14.4) (32.9) (7.2) (18.5) (18.9) (29.7)

Interest / Dividend (Net) (12.4) (6.5) (2.3) (10.2) (3.6) (5.3)

Direct taxes paid 39.0 47.6 43.6 83.3 96.9 115.7

Others (7.4) 5.7 15.8 (0.1) (4.7) (6.3)

Cash Flow from Operations 65.7 98.1 136.3 193.5 228.7 258.8

(Inc.)/ Dec. in Fixed Assets (122.4) (67.6) (110.9) (116.9) (71.8) (70.6)

(Inc.)/ Dec. in Investments 32.3 (38.7) 26.5 - - -

Cash Flow from Investing (90.0) (106.3) (84.4) (116.9) (71.8) (70.6)

Issue of Equity - - - - - -

Inc./(Dec.) in loans (9.8) (27.7) 62.4 (15.0) (20.0) (20.0)

Dividend Paid (Incl. Tax) 51.5 35.2 70.5 126.8 148.0 176.2

Interest / Dividend (Net) (12.4) (6.5) (2.3) (10.2) (11.6) (13.8)

Financing
Cash Flow from Financing (48.9) (56.4) (5.8) (131.7) (156.3) (182.4)

Inc./(Dec.) in Cash (73.2) (64.7) 46.1 (55.1) 0.6 5.8

Opening Cash balances 174.6 101.4 36.7 82.8 27.7 28.3

Closing Cash balances 101.4 36.7 82.8 27.7 28.3 34.1

April 8, 2010 6


Key Ratios

Valuation Ratios (x)
P/E (on FDEPS) 47.7 37.1 39.7 21.0 18.1 15.1
P/CEPS 36.4 27.6 28.0 16.4 14.2 12.1

P/BV 7.1 6.8 6.5 6.0 5.5 5.0
Dividend yield (%) 1.2 1.7 1.7 3.0 3.5 4.1
EV/Sales 6.1 4.9 4.5 4.0 3.4 2.9

EV/EBITDA 30.4 22.5 23.6 13.7 11.5 9.7
EV / Total Assets 5.6 5.5 4.9 4.8 4.5 4.3

Per Share Data (Rs)
EPS (Basic) 2.5 3.3 3.0 5.7 6.7 8.0
EPS (fully diluted) 2.5 3.3 3.0 5.7 6.7 8.0
Cash EPS 3.3 4.4 4.3 7.4 8.5 10.0

DPS 1.5 2.0 2.0 3.6 4.2 5.0
Book Value 17.0 17.9 18.6 20.1 21.9 24.0

Dupont Analysis
EBIT margin 16.1 17.4 14.4 24.0 24.7 25.5
Tax retention ratio 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7
Asset turnover (x) 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.3

RoIC (Post-tax) 11.5 13.4 10.9 17.5 19.5 22.1
Cost of Debt (Post Tax) 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Leverage (x) (0.4) (0.3) (0.2) (0.1) (0.1) (0.1)

Operating RoE 7.2 9.8 8.5 15.2 17.4 19.2

Returns (%)
RoCE (Pre-tax) 14.8 19.6 16.6 28.9 33.6 38.4

Angel RoIC (Pre-tax) 27.5 30.2 24.5 39.9 43.7 49.5
RoE 15.3 18.7 16.7 29.7 31.8 34.7

Turnover ratios (x)
Asset Turnover (Gross Block) 1.9 1.9 1.7 1.6 1.7 1.8
Inventory / Sales (days) 20.0 16.9 14.1 13.5 12.6 12.2
Receivables (days) 69.6 77.2 70.3 67.6 64.6 62.9

Payables (days) 35.4 40.8 39.3 37.8 39.6 39.4
WCC (ex-cash) (days) 88.8 71.2 51.0 52.5 49.8 50.9

Solvency ratios (x)
Net debt to equity (0.3) (0.3) (0.2) (0.1) (0.1) (0.1)
Net debt to EBITDA (1.2) (0.9) (0.6) (0.2) (0.2) (0.3)
Interest Coverage (EBIT/Interest) 11.3 21.7 20.1 35.2 46.0 62.2

April 8, 2010 7


Disclaimer
This document is solely for the personal information of the recipient, and must not be singularly used as the basis of any investment
decision. Nothing in this document should be construed as investment or financial advice. Each recipient of this document should make
such investigations as they deem necessary to arrive at an independent evaluation of an investment in the securities of the companies
referred to in this document (including the merits and risks involved), and should consult their own advisors to determine the merits and
risks of such an investment.

Angel Securities Limited, its affiliates, directors, its proprietary trading and investment businesses may, from time to time, make investment
decisions that are inconsistent with or contradictory to the recommendations expressed herein. The views contained in this document are
those of the analyst, and the company may or may not subscribe to all the views expressed within.

Reports based on technical and derivative analysis center on studying charts of a stock's price movement, outstanding positions and trading
volume, as opposed to focusing on a company's fundamentals and, as such, may not match with a report on a company's fundamentals.

The information in this document has been printed on the basis of publicly available information, internal data and other reliable sources
believed to be true, and is for general guidance only. Angel Securities Limited has not independently verified all the information contained
within this document. Accordingly, we cannot testify, nor make any representation or warranty, express or implied, to the accuracy, contents
or data contained within this document. While Angel Securities Limited endeavours to update on a reasonable basis the information
discussed in this material, there may be regulatory, compliance, or other reasons that prevent us from doing so.

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Neither Angel Securities Limited, nor its directors, employees or affiliates shall be liable for any loss or damage that may arise from or in
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Note: Please refer to the important `Stock Holding Disclosure' report on the Angel website (Research Section).

Disclosure of Interest Statement Prakashan
Jagran Prakashan
1. Analyst ownership of the stock No
2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock No
3. Angel and its Group companies' Directors ownership of the stock No
4. Broking relationship with company covered No

Note: We have not considered any Exposure below Rs 1 lakh for Angel, its Group companies and Directors.

Ratings (Returns) : Buy (> 15%) Accumulate (5% to 15%) Neutral (-5 to 5%)
Reduce (-5% to 15%) Sell (< -15%)


Address: Acme Plaza, ‘A’ Wing, 3rd Floor, M.V. Road, Opp. Sangam Cinema, Andheri (E), Mumbai - 400 059.
Tel : (022) 3952 4568 / 4040 3800

Research Team
Fundamental:
Sarabjit Kour Nangra VP-Research, Pharmaceutical sarabjit@angeltrade.com
Vaibhav Agrawal VP-Research, Banking vaibhav.agrawal@angeltrade.com
Vaishali Jajoo Automobile vaishali.jajoo@angeltrade.com
Shailesh Kanani Infrastructure, Real Estate shailesh.kanani@angeltrade.com
Anand Shah FMCG , Media anand.shah@angeltrade.com
Deepak Pareek Oil & Gas deepak.pareek@angeltrade.com
Puneet Bambha Capital Goods, Engineering puneet.bambha@angeltrade.com
Sushant Dalmia Pharmaceutical sushant.dalmia@angeltrade.com
Rupesh Sankhe Cement, Power rupeshd.sankhe@angeltrade.com
Param Desai Real Estate, Logistics, Shipping paramv.desai@angeltrade.com
Sageraj Bariya Fertiliser, Mid-cap sageraj.bariya@angeltrade.com
Viraj Nadkarni Retail, Hotels, Mid-cap virajm.nadkarni@angeltrade.com
Paresh Jain Metals & Mining pareshn.jain@angeltrade.com
Amit Rane Banking amitn.rane@angeltrade.com
Rahul Jain IT, Telecom rahul.j@angeltrade.com
Jai Sharda Mid-cap jai.sharda@angeltrade.com
Sharan Lillaney Mid-cap sharanb.lillaney@angeltrade.com

Amit Vora Research Associate (Oil & Gas) amit.vora@angeltrade.com
V Srinivasan Research Associate (Cement, Power) v.srinivasan@angeltrade.com
Aniruddha Mate Research Associate (Infra, Real Estate) aniruddha.mate@angeltrade.com
Mihir Salot Research Associate (Logistics, Shipping) mihirr.salot@angeltrade.com
Chitrangda Kapur Research Associate (FMCG, Media) chitrangdar.kapur@angeltrade.com
Vibha Salvi Research Associate (IT, Telecom) vibhas.salvi@angeltrade.com
Pooja Jain Research Associate (Metals & Mining) pooja.j@angeltrade.com

Technicals:
Shardul Kulkarni Sr. Technical Analyst shardul.kulkarni@angeltrade.com
Mileen Vasudeo Technical Analyst vasudeo.kamalakant@angeltrade.com
Derivatives:
Siddarth Bhamre Head - Derivatives siddarth.bhamre@angeltrade.com
Jaya Agarwal Derivative Analyst jaya.agarwal@angeltrade.com
Sandeep Patil Jr. Derivative Analyst patil.sandeep@angeltrade.com

Institutional Sales Team:
Mayuresh Joshi VP - Institutional Sales mayuresh.joshi@angeltrade.com
Abhimanyu Sofat AVP - Institutional Sales abhimanyu.sofat@angeltrade.com
Nitesh Jalan Sr. Manager niteshk.jalan@angeltrade.com
Pranav Modi Sr. Manager pranavs.modi@angeltrade.com
Sandeep Jangir Sr. Manager sandeepp.jangir@angeltrade.com
Ganesh Iyer Sr. Manager ganeshb.Iyer@angeltrade.com
Jay Harsora Sr. Dealer jayr.harsora@angeltrade.com
Meenakshi Chavan Dealer meenakshis.chavan@angeltrade.com
Gaurang Tisani Dealer gaurangp.tisani@angeltrade.com

Production Team:
Bharathi Shetty Research Editor bharathi.shetty@angeltrade.com
Dharmil Adhyaru Assistant Research Editor dharmil.adhyaru@angeltrade.com
Bharat Patil Production bharat.patil@angeltrade.com
Dilip Patel Production dilipm.patel@angeltrade.com

Angel Broking Ltd: BSE Sebi Regn No : INB 010996539 / CDSL Regn No: IN - DP - CDSL - 234 - 2004 / PMS Regn Code: PM/INP000001546 Angel Securities Ltd:BSE: INB010994639/INF010994639 NSE: INB230994635/INF230994635 Membership numbers: BSE 028/NSE:09946
Angel Capital & Debt Market Ltd: INB 231279838 / NSE FNO: INF 231279838 / NSE Member code -12798 Angel Commodities Broking (P) Ltd: MCX Member ID: 12685 / FMC Regn No: MCX / TCM / CORP / 0037 NCDEX : Member ID 00220 / FMC Regn No: NCDEX / TCM / CORP / 0302

Jagran Prakashan - Event Update, 08 Apr 2010

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