Institutional and Policy Innovations for Food and Nutrition Security in Asia and Role of Maize. Ramesh Chand

1. Institutional and Policy Innovations for
Food and Nutrition Security in Asia
and Role of Maize#
Ramesh Chand
Member
National Institution for Transforming India
NITI Aayog, Government of India
# Views included in the Presentation are personal.

2. International Definition and Indicator
• Most common and widely used definition –
World Food Summit 1996:
– Food security exists “when all people, at all times,
have physical, social and economic access to
sufficient, safe and nutritious food to meet their
dietary needs and food preferences for an active
and healthy life”
• Critique: Definition –ideal, practice restricted
• Multidimensional nature
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3. Four pillars of food security
• The World Summit
on Food Security
2009: Reconfirmed
the 1996 definition
• Nutritional
dimension is integral
to the concept of
food security
Food
security
Availability
Access
Utilization
Stability

4. Institutional & Policy Interventions
A. Production side or Supply side (necessary
condition)
A.1 Infrastructure development in and for agri
Irrigation
Markets, Storage, Rural Roads
A.2 Financial support esp for staple
Input subsidy
Output price support
A.3 Import protection
Tariff rate, QRs
A.4 Institutional changes
Tenures, land policy, regulations
A.5 Agriculture R&D and extension

5. Institutional & Policy Interventions
B. Demand or Consumption side (sufficient
condition)
B1. Affordability
Pro poor policies, income policies
Subsidised food, PDS
Food stamp
B2. Protection against shocks
Buffer stock
B3. Social welfare schemes
National Nutrition Mission, Mid day meal
B4. Nutrition awareness or literacy

6. International Indicator: FAO
• Energy based (calorie intake).
– Hunger and undernutrition used as indicators
– Used interchangeably
1800 Kcl (assume on average sedentary activity)
– Critique
• Supply side
• Energy focused. Only basic need.
• Composite index
– Global hunger index (IFPRI)
• Simple average of Undrnutrition, child mortality and
underweight children
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7. Prevalence of undernourishment, World and Asia
Region 1979-81 1990-92 2005 2010 2017
Number of people under-nourished (million)
East Asia 307.7 198.2 219.1 178.4 139.6
South-East Asia 88.4 76.5 101.7 73.7 63.7
South Asia 330.5 291.3 339.8 293.1 277.2
Asia and pacific 727.3 567.3 686.4 569.9 515.1
World 1015.3 945.0 820.5 820.8
Proportion of under-nourished in population (%)
East Asia 29.0 16.0 14.1 11.3 -
South-East Asia 25.0 17.0 18.1 12.3 9.8
South Asia 37.0 26.0 21.5 17.2 14.8
Asia and pacific 32 20.0 17.3 13.6 11.4
World 18.9 14.5 11.8 10.9
Source: SOFI, FAO, various years.

8. Food Availability and Consumption: India
Food group Per capita food production
(grams/capita/day)
Per capita food consumption
(grams/capita/day)
1993-94 2011-12 CGR 1993-94 2011-12 CGR
Cereals 525 548 0.24 424 357 -0.95
Pulses 41 39 -0.30 25 27 0.41
Oilseeds/veg. oil 66 67 0.12 14 22 2.59
Vegetables 202 354 3.16 163 186 0.74
Fruits 114 173 2.32 19 23 0.96
Milk 186 290 2.49 148 165 0.64
Livestock product
(eggs, meat, fish)
27 40 2.26 13 16 1.20
Production or availability has been improving BUT not translating
into intake/nutrition - Next slide

9. Monthly Per Capita Expenditure and
Calorie Intake Association - India
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000
1993-94 2011-12
Rural
Real MPCE Rs/capita/month)
Calorie(kcal/capita/day)
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
0 5000 10000 15000 20000
1993-94
2011-12
Urban
Real MPCE(Rs/capita/month)
Calorie(kcal/capita/day)

10. Nutrition Outcomes are Different
than Economic Outcomes
• Common perception on nutrition
– Production of food itself determines consumption and nutrition
– Increase in income itself brings corresponding change in nutrition
– Not always!
• Production outcome
– Per capita production
• Income outcome
– Per capita income
– Poverty
• Nutrition Outcome:
– Undernourished population, malnutrition, anthropometric measures.
• Divergence, disconnect or weak connect
– Because of divergence between production and consumption
– Consumption pattern and income

11. Main Findings
• Much easier to reduce poverty but nutrition is much
more difficult and complex
• Undernutrition is widespread even among non –poor
• Voluntary hunger widespread in South Asia
• FAO underestimated hunger – supply deemed to be
consumption
• Relationship between prices and hunger misunderstood
• Excessive emphasis on food safety net and staples and
lessor on diversified diets, awareness, and food safety
and quality
• Paradox of hunger amidst plenty. Per capita production
rising, export rising, high undernutrition (India)
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12. Maize: Importance Beyond Food
• Cereals are staple food.
– Direct consumption and as feed
• Some Industrial uses
• Maize distinguish itself from other cereals
– Demand Side
• Multiple uses as food – staple, vegetable, soup, snacks, roasted,
boiled
• Considered best feed
• Potential renewable source of energy - ethanol
• Potential sweetener - HFCS
• Industrial uses
– Supply side
• Easy genetic manipulations
• Diversity
• C4 crop
• Very wide adaptations – can be grown in all seasons

13. Impact on Food Security
and Nutrition
• Depends upon three factors
–Intake
–Nutritive value
–Indirect contribution to food (as feed)
• Evidence from India

14. Household Consumption of Maize as Food
in India: Kg/person/year
Particulars 1977-78 1987-88 1999-00 2011-12
Rural
Maize 8.2 4.6 3.9 1.6
Total cereals 185.5 175.2 154.5 136.6
Share of maize % 5.3 3.2 3.1 1.4
Urban
Maize
1.10 0.49 n.a. 0.12
Total cereals 141.4 136.1 126.8 113.4
Share of maize % 0.94 0.44 Na 0.13
Sources: NSS reports on Household consumption of various goods and services (various
issues)

15. Nutritive Value of Various Cereals
per 100 Gram Grains
Crop Caloires Protein (g) Minerals (g)
Avg. Coarse Grains 297 10.0 3.0
Wheat 341 12.0 2.0
Rice 346 7.0 1.0
Maize (dry) 342 11.1 1.5
Maize (tender) 125 4.7 0.8
Fat (g) Phosphorus (mg) Calcium (mg)
Avg. Coarse Grains 3.0 228 64
Wheat 2.0 306 41
Rice 1.0 160 10
Maize (dry) 3.6 348 10
Maize (tender) 0.9 121 9
Source: ICMR-NIN

16. Maize and Its Competing Crops
• Maize v/s Paddy
– Water requirement
– Lesser GHG
– C4 /C3
– Storability
– Yield risk, flood proneness
– Biomass use and disposal
– Price risk
– Threats from wild animals, preys
• Maize V/s Wheat
– Yield advantage changing
– Storability
16

17. Post 1980 Trend in Cereal Production
Million Tonne
17
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1980
1983
1986
1989
1992
1995
1998
2001
2004
2007
2010
2013
2016
Maize
Wheat
Rice
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1980
1983
1986
1989
1992
1995
1998
2001
2004
2007
2010
2013
2016
Maize
Wheat
Rice
Maize output: A new revolution started after 2001.
GR increased from 2.1% to 3.9% in world and 3.4% to 5.2% in Asia.
From Million to Trillion
World Asia

18. Tempering Scale to Magnify Change
100
215
0
50
100
150
200
250
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Actual scale
100.000
100.007
100.000
100.001
100.002
100.003
100.004
100.005
100.006
100.007
100.008
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Fixed scale

19. Anatomy of Growth Trajectory
Using Growth rate Objectively
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50
4.00
4.50
Growthrate%
Decade ending
Maize Wheat Rice

20. Growth rates in A,Y, O in World and
Asia During 1986 to 2016
Crop World
Area Yield Production
Maize 1.25 1.72 2.99
Wheat -0.08 1.22 1.15
Rice 0.42 1.22 1.58
Population 1.34
Asia
Maize 1.76 1.95 3.74
Wheat 0.53 1.25 1.79
Rice 0.37 1.15 1.53
Population 1.32

21. 15.0
17.0
19.0
21.0
23.0
25.0
27.0
29.0
31.0
33.0
35.0
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
Percent
Year
Asia share in Maize: Area and
Production
Area Production 15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
40.0
45.0
50.0
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
Percent
Asia share in Wheat: Area and Production
Area Production
85.0
86.0
87.0
88.0
89.0
90.0
91.0
92.0
93.0
Percent
Asia share in Rice: Area and Production
Area Production
Asia share in global area
and Output:
• rice falling,
• wheat stagnant,
• maize rising.

22. Cereal Growth in Relation to
Population Growth
World
Period Maize Wheat Rice Cereals
1980s 91 102 94 358
1990s 96 100 97 349
2000s 109 94 97 346
2011-16 135 99 102 376
Asia
1980s 34 58 143 255
1990s 43 69 146 275
2000s 50 67 145 274
2011-16 69 73 153 306
Per Capita Annual Production: Kg Bottomline for
sustaining food
security and
bottomline for
improving FS
and nutrition
improvement

23. Transition Towards Maize:
How Asia is Different
World
Period Maize Wheat Rice Other
1981-1990 25.3 28.7 26.3 19.7
1991-2000 27.9 28.5 28.0 15.6
2001-2010 32.0 27.2 27.9 13.0
2011-2016 35.9 26.2 27.0 10.8
Asia
1981-1990 13.5 23.0 55.9 7.6
1991-2000 15.6 25.3 53.1 6.1
2001-2010 18.5 24.5 52.6 4.5
2011-2016 22.6 23.7 50.1 3.6
Transition towards
maize faster in Asia
but Cereal system in
Asia remains less
diversified.
Need to protect
millets from maize-
much stronger in
Asia. Reasons.

24. Combining Transition towards
Maize with Sustainability
• Much will depend upon what crops it replaces
– Paddy
– Wheat
– Course grains, pulses, oilseed
• Asia needs maize that is more profitable than
paddy
• More breakthrough for Rainfed region (75%
maize is rainfed in India)
• Maize more amenable to precision agriculture.

25. Some Other Learnings
• What is rice to Asia, Maize is to rest of the world
• Maize trade in Asia
• Setting off Price disadvantage – bio-fortification
• Value addition through biomass
• Quality characteristics and phenotype – labeling
not so successful in Asia
• Factors behind rise of maize. Public and Private
Sector complementarity
– Technology by CG and NARS
– Spread by private sector
• Income from maize and labour cost. Implication
• Creating incentive for meeting Society wide
goals (poverty, food security under-nutrition)
• Match growth with efficiency, income of producers
25

26. Ramesh Chand
Input
Output
Cost reducing
Cost
increasing
Nature of Technological Change
Implications for Growth, and Income
N= 200 kg
Y= 4500 kg
N= 50 kg
Y= 3500 kg P
r
i
c
e
Quantity

27. Thank you