Dr Jason Clay, Senior Vice President Food and Markets, WWF-US visited New Zealand in September 2016 with support from the AgriBusiness Group/NZ Sustainability Dashboard and WWF-NZ. The Sustainable Business Council hosted Jason at events for BusinessNZ members and guests in Wellington and Auckland. He made a powerful and sobering case for why we need to get it right with food if we're going to protect our biodiversity; how businesses need to lead from the front; and how Government policy will support food reliability and the value chain in the countries they govern.

1. Jason Clay, PhD
SVP Markets, WWF-US
Food—Too Big to Fail
Pre-competitive actions along the value chain

2. “You can’t wake a person
who’s pretending to sleep”
Oromo proverb

3. change
at the speed of life

4. 1 Time to increase GDP per capita (in PPP terms) from 1,300 to 2,600 USD Source: Angus Maddison, University of Groningen
Britain (1700-1855)
US (1820-1873)
India (1989-2006)
China (1983-1995)
Population at start
of growth period
9M
10M
822M
1,023M
Years to double
GDP per capita1
155
53
17
12
The China phenomenon
China doubling of GDP
was 12x the speed of
Britain during the
Industrial Revolution at
100x the scale
400 million
lifted out of poverty

5. Source: The Chicago Council on Global Affairs, Advancing Global Food Security in the Face of a Changing Climate, Gerald C. Nelson, March 2014
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
260
240
220
200
180
160
140
120
FoodPriceIndex
Burundi (1)
Somalia (5)
India (4)
Mauritania (2)
Mozambique (6)
Yemen (12)
Cameroon (40)
Sudan (3)
Haiti (5), Egypt (3), Cote d’Ivoire (1)
Somalia (5)
Tunisia (1)
India (1)
Sudan (1) Mozambique (13)
Tunisia (300+)
Libya (10000+)
Egypt (800+)
Algeria (4), Arabia (1)
Mauritania (1), Sudan (1),
Yemen (300+) Oman (2), Morocco (5)
Iraq (29), Bahrain (31)
Syria (900+)
Uganda (5)
Food prices & food riots, 2004 -12

6. food
security is
national
security
and, global trade
is key

7. 40 years =
8,000 years
global food

8. is already the biggest threat
food production

15. ≠population x consumption

16. x 1 = 7
x2 = 18

17. measure
absolute impacts
not per capita ones

18. freeze
the footprint of food

19. the issue isn’t
what to think
it’s how to think

20. trade is key
for food
security

21. export animal proteins
not feed

22. subsidies are the biggest
barrier to innovation

23. 10%
15%
20%
25%
5%
30%
1930
Source: USDA Economic Research Service, Food Expenditure Series, 2014
1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2013
Food as a % of U.S. disposable
income

24. food is
cheap, but
1 billion
can’t afford it

25. half of farm families
can’t feed themselves

26. by 2050
double food availability

27. productivity & efficiency
and
waste & consumption

28. On a finite planet,
should consumers
have a choice
about sustainable
products?
or should
all choices
be sustainable?

29. 1 out of 3 calories
waste

30. 250 M hectares
by 2030
rebuild
soils

31. agriculture takes 70%
of all water used by people

32. liter of water = calorie1 1

33. “it’s not if genetics,
but which genetics”
genetics

34. Corn
Bananas
Sugar

35. oil palm millet peanut
cowpeas cassava vine spinach
plantain coco yam sorghum
Orphan crops

36. 100 times better
better practices

37. which gives us more food?

38. recognizing the best
or
moving the rest?

39. government
regulation
voluntary
standards
numberofproducers
performance shift
Reward the best, or move the rest?
worse average better

40. intangible values
organic
non-GMO
smallholder
no child labor
deforestation
physical values
weights and measures
quality
color
foreign matter
health and safety
Traded commodities – then and now

41. challenges
for animal protein

42. beef takes 60%
of land,
produces 1.3%
of calories

43. Chicken – Improvement evolution
1925 1945 1965 1985 2005 2045*
Conversion – kg feed/kg live 4.7 4.0 2.4 2.0 1.7 1.6
Mortality % 18% 10% 6% 5% 4% 3%
Age (days) 112 84 63 49 42 40
Live commercial weight - kg 1.0 1.4 1.6 1.9 2.4 3.2
Source: Dr. Paul Aho, Novus Poultry Roundtable: Feeding the World and the Role of Poultry, January 2010
Poultry – efficiency matters
*projected

44. …to optimizing key ones
shift from
maximizing one variable…

45. climate change &
food production

46. Source: Armando Isaac Martinez, a.i.martinez@cgiar.org; Narioski Castro
Good
Marginal
Barely
Suitability
Very good
Excellent
Current
Suitability of cocoa production

47. Source: Armando Isaac Martinez, a.i.martinez@cgiar.org; Narioski Castro
Less suitable
Much less
Suitability
Change
No change
More suitable
2030
Suitability of cocoa production

48. in the short term
climate smart agriculture =
efficient production

49. in the medium term,
producers change crops

50. won’t buy
certified
poverty

54. • Illegal deforestation, national parks
• Child labor
• Government—make all exports legal
• The private sector
‒ Long-term contracts
‒ 3-year grace period with salary
• Focus on West Africa & grafting
Rehabilitating cocoa
Photo: Alamy

57. salmon
aquaculture

59. Deforestation-free
supply chains by 2020
• 57 companies
• 4 commodities (beef, soy,
palm oil, pulp)
• 2 countries (Brazil and
Indonesia)

60. Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture

61. risk
raw materials and reputation
the key global food issue is

62. 0
20
40
60
80
100
1975 1985 1995 2005 2009
17%
83%
32%
68%
68%
32%
80%
20%
81%
19%
Tangible assets Intangible assets
Source: Ocean Tomo
percent
Components of S&P 500 Market Value

63. WILDLIFE
tigers
elephants
rhinos
MINERALS
gold
coltan
diamonds
SEAFOOD
bluefin tuna
demersal fishes
shrimp and prawns
FORESTS
pulp
timber
mangroves
PLANTATIONS
palm oil
soy
beef
Illegally produced

64. Research ‒ Is illegality
important for you?
• 8 companies’ supply chains
• 8 commodities, 8 countries
• All data in the public domain
• Make illegality pre-competitive
• Illegality undercuts price

65. “If you don’t know where you’re going,
any road will get you there.”

66. think about it