Food Security, Self-Sufficiency and Sustainable Agriculture in a Changing World

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“WE SHARE OUR
SCIENCE TO FEED
THE FUTURE”
Food Security, Self-Sufficiency
and Sustainable Agriculture in
a Changing World"
Dr. Joan Girona i Gomis
Efficient Use of Water in Agriculture
IRTA
Lleida, 26 de setembre de 2017

2
• Food Security
• Food Self-Sufficiency
• Sustainable Agriculture
• Changing World
Food Security, Self-Sufficiency and Sustainable
Agriculture in a Changing World"
• Food Security
• Changing World

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Food Security
The World Food Summit of 1996 defined food
security as existing when all people , at all times,
have physical, social and economic access to
sufficient, safe and nutritious food to meet dietary
needs for a productive and healthy life.
©JGirona/IRTA(2017)
Food Security
security as existing when all people , at all
times, have physical, social and economic
access to sufficient, safe and nutritious food to
meet dietary needs for a productive and healthy
life.
• Affordability
• Sufficiency of Supply
• Quality and Safety

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Food Security
Measures the ability of consumers to purchase food, their vulnerability to price
shocks and the presence of programmes and policies to support customers when
shocks occur.
Food consumption as a share of household expenditure
Measures the average percentage of household expenditure that is spent on food.
Proportion of population under global poverty line
Measures the percentage of the population living under $3.10/day in purchasing power parity.
Gross domestic product per capita
Measures individual income and, hence, the ability to afford food in $US purchasing power parity terms.
Agricultural import tariffs
Measures the average applied most favoured nation (MFN) tariffs on agricultural imports.
Access to financing for farmers
A qualitative indicator that measures the availability of financing to farmers from the government, multilateral, and
private sectors.
Presence of food safety net programmes
A qualitative indicator that measures public initiatives to protect the poor from food-related shocks. This indicator
considers food safety net programmes, including in-kind food transfers, conditional cash transfers (ie. food vouchers),
and the existence of school feeding programmes by the government, NGO, or multilateral sector.
• Affordability
©JGirona/IRTA(2017)(www.foodsecurityindex.eiu.com)
Food Security
A composite indicator that measures the food availability through the supply
of kcal/capita/day and levels of food aid.
Public expenditure on agricultural R&D
Measuredas a percentageof agriculturalGDP. It is a proxy for agricultural innovationand technology that increases market efficiencyand access.
Agricultural infrastructure
Composite indicatorthat measures the abilityto store and transport crops to market. Sub-indicators include: existenceof adequatecrop storage
facilities;extent and quality of road infrastructure;and quality of ports' infrastructure.
Volatility of agricultural production
Measuredas the standarddeviation ofthe annual growth in agriculturalproduction over the most recent 20 year period for which data is available.
Political instability
A qualitativeindicator thatmeasuresthe presence of generalpolitical instability.Political instabilityhas the potential to disrupt access to food through
such avenuesas transportationblocks or reducedfood aid commitments.
Corruption
A measure ofthe pervasiveness of corruptionin a country, by measuringthe risk of corruption.Corruption can impactfood availabilitythrough
distortionsand inefficienciesin the uses of natural resources, as well as bottlenecksand inefficienciesin food distribution.
Urban absorption capacity
A measure ofa country's capacity toabsorb the stresses placed by urbanisationand still ensure food security.
Food loss
A measure ofpost-harvest andpre-consumer foodloss as a ratio of the total domesticsupply (production,net imports and stock changes)of crops,
livestock and fish commodities.

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Food Security
Measures the variety and nutritional quality of average diets, as well as the
safety of food.
Diet diversification
Measures the share of non-starchyfoods (all but cereals, roots, and tubers)in total dietaryenergy consumption.A larger share of non-starchyfoods
signifiesa greaterdiversityof food groups in the diet.
Nutritional standards
A composite indicatorthat measures nutritiongovernance.It is comprised ofa three binarysub-indicators that include: existenceof national
dietaryguidelines,existenceof national nutritionplan or strategy, and existence ofregular nutritionmonitoring andsurveillance.
Micronutrient availability
A composite indicatorthat measures the availabilityof iron and vitamin A in the food supply. Sub-indicatorsinclude: dietary availabilityof vitamin
A, dietary availabilityof animal iron, dietaryavailabilityof vegetaliron.
Protein quality
This indicator measuresthe gramsof qualityprotein consumed using the methodologyof the ProteinDigestibility Corrected Amino AcidScore
(PDCAAS). This methodologyassesses the presence ofnine essentialamino acids in the average nationaldiet. The inputs of this calculationinclude:
the amino acid profile, protein digestibilityvalue, and the averagegrams consumed of each food itemthat contributes a minimumof 2% to protein
consumption.
Food safety
A composite indicatorthat measures the enablingenvironment forfood safety. Sub-indicators include: existenceof agencyto ensure health/safety
of food; access to potablewater; presenceof formal grocery sector.
Food Security
security as existing when all people , at all
times, have physical, social and economic
access to sufficient, safe and nutritious food to
meet dietary needs for a productive and healthy
life.
• Affordability
(www.foodsecurityindex.eiu.com)

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Food Security
2016
Food Security
Affordability
Availability
Quality and Safety
2016

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Food Security
2016
• Food Security
• Changing World

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Food Self-Sufficiency
(Clapp, 2017)

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Spain ……… 92%
Israel ……… 52%
Uruguay …. 235%
Food Security
2016
Uruguay: 235 %
UK: 60 %
Israel: 52 %
USA: 124%
France: 120 %
Japan: 39 %
Switzerland: 54 %

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Food Security
2016
Uruguay: 235 %
UK: 60 %
Israel: 52 %
USA: 124%
France: 120 %
Japan: 39 %
Switzerland: 54 %

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(https://www.bloomberg.com/news/art
icles/2017-09-21/more-than-a-third-of-
switzerland-is-agricultural-land)

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(Clapp, 2017)
Food self-sufficiency is not a reject to all
Food trades, is related to promote
opportunities and to increase Food security.
(Clapp, 2017)

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• Food Security
• Changing World

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• Food Security
• Changing World
5
2. Outlook for Food Security towards 2050
In the following, the key elements of current expert thinking regarding the outlook for food
security towards 2050 will be summarized. The key message from this assessment is that it
will be possible to achieve food security for a world population of 9.1 billion people projected
for that time, provided a number of well specified conditions are met through appropriate
policies.
2.1 T he changing socio-economic environment
The main socio-economic factors that drive increasing food demand are population growth,
increasing urbanization and rising incomes. As regards the first two, population growth and
urbanization, there is little uncertainty about the magnitude, nature and regional pattern of
their future development.
According to the latest revision of the UN population prospects (medium variant), the world
population is projected to grow by 34 percent from 6.8 billion today to 9.1 billion in 2050.
Compared to the preceding 50 years, population growth rates will slow down considerably.
However, coming off a much bigger base, the absolute increase will still be significant, 2.3
billion more humans. Nearly all of this increase in population will take place in the part of the
world comprising today’s developing countries. The greatest relative increase, 120 percent, is
expected in today’s least developed countries.
Source: Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United
Nations Secretariat (2007)
W orld Population 1965 - 2050
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
6.00
7.00
8.00
9.00
10.00
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
Y ear
Billionpeople
Developing countries Developed countries
6.9 mM
9.1 mM
World Population 1965 - 2050
2.2 mM
(+32%)
, Adaptat de FAO, 2009. Global Agriculture Towards 2050
FIG. 2

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0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
2003 2050 - G1 2050 - G0
GlobalFoodDemand(Gkacl/dia)
+ 28%
+ 88%
GLOBAL FOOD DEMAND
Fonts: Pailard, S., Treyer, S., Dorin, B. (eds.), 2011. Agrimonde: scenarios
and challanges for feeding the world in 2050. Quae, Versailles, 296 p.
FIG. 3
WORLD DEMAND FOR IRRIGATION
WATER (for food)
Fonts: Freibauer, A, Mathijs, E., Brinori, G., Damianova, Z., Faroult, E.,
Girona, J., O’Brien, L., Treyer, S.,Sustainable food consumption and
production in a resource-constrained world. EU Commission, Standing
Commitee on Agricultural Research, Brussels
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
Actual (2000) 2050 - G1 2050 - G0
Worlddemandforirrigaonwater(Km3)
+ 56%
+ 128%
FIG. 4

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Climatic Change
www.planbleu.org , IPCC Fourth Assessment Report: Climate Change 2007
(AR4).
 Temperatures Increase 2,2ºC
 Rainfall drops 4 i un 27%
 Increment Extreme Events: Drought and Floods.
(IPCC Projections for the Mediterranean 1980-1999 vs 2080-2099, A1B scenario)
FIG. 5

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0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
2003 2050 - G1 2050 - G0
GlobalFoodDemand(Gkacl/dia)
+ 28%
+ 88%
GLOBAL FOOD DEMAND
Fonts: Pailard, S., Treyer, S., Dorin, B. (eds.), 2011. Agrimonde: scenarios
and challanges for feeding the world in 2050. Quae, Versailles, 296 p.
FIG. 3
It will be enough Food to
feed the world in 2050 ?
• Population increase
• Climate Change

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• Food Security
• Changing World

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How much water is needed to produce:
1 almond
5litres
Water Use Efficiency
1 hazelnut
2litres

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1 Hazelnut vol
120litres
1 apple
(http://www.fao.org/resources/infographics/infographics-
details/en/c/218877/)

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1550
1 bistec
(100 gr)

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(1 famíly)
5.110.000 litres
(5.110,0 m3)
14.000 litres
(14,0 m3)
Per day
(1 person)
3.500 litres
(3,5 m3)
Per year
1.460.000 litres
(1.460,0 m3)
How much water is needed to feed:
(http://thewaterweeat.com/)

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How much Food can we produce with the water that may holds this
stadium ?
How many families per year con we feed, with this water?
247 families/year
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
Flooding Irrig.
Drip (M. T)
Drip (T) (2)
RDI (Highly T)
Drip (T) (1)
Drip (Low T.)
Drip (NT)
55 litres
17 litres
24 litres
24 litres
28 litres
30 litres
49 litres
Exemple on Water Use Efficiciency for a
Sustainable Agriculture
(Rufat et al., 2002; Girona et al., 2012)

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0 10 20 30 40 50 60
Flooding Irrig.
Drip (M. T)
Drip (T) (2)
RDI (Highly T)
Drip (T) (1)
Drip (Low T.)
Drip (NT)
55 litres
17 litres
24 litres
24 litres
28 litres
30 litres
49 litres
Exemple on Water Use Efficiciency for a
Sustainable Agriculture
(Rufat et al., 2002; Girona et al., 2012)
This irrigation water management is
more sustainable tan this other one
• Food Security
• Changing World

25
Food Security, Self-Sufficiency
and Sustainable Agriculture in
a Changing World"
Dr. Joan Girona i Gomis
Efficient Use of Water in Agriculture
IRTA
Lleida, 26 de setembre de 2017
This presentation and all its contents are protected by current legislation in industrial and
intellectual property. That is why its reproduction, copy, modification or transformation is
expressly prohibited without the express authorization of IRTA.

Food Security, Self-Sufficiency and Sustainable Agriculture in a Changing World

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