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Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report 1
Y/E March (` cr) 2QFY11 2QFY10 1QFY11 % chg (yoy) % chg (qoq)
Net Sales 490.3 355.9 512.0 37.8 (4.2)
Op. Profit 236.4 174.7 229.3 35.3 3.1
Net Profit 99.1 70.8 117.5 39.9 (15.7)
Source: Company, Angel Research
IRB Infrastructure (IRB) reported consolidated numbers above our estimates,
primarily led by robust top-line growth in the construction segment, higher EBITDA
margins and lower tax provision. However, at current levels the stock offers limited
upside to our SOTP Target Price of `273 hence, we maintain Neutral on the stock.
Performance above estimates: IRB reported robust top-line growth of 37.8% to
`490.3cr. Management has indicated that construction segment has posted robust
numbers due to the execution pick up in two of its recently bagged projects –
Amritsar Pathankot and Jaipur Deoli – we have factored in the same from the next
quarter onwards. Further, the remaining two projects (Goa Karnataka and
Talegaon Amravati) are expected to contribute to the segment from 3QFY2011
onwards. Hence, the segment is expected to maintain its growth trend. IRB
continues to surprise on the margin front and posted EBITDA margins of 48.2% for
2QFY2011 v/s our expectation of 44.9%. Bottom-line grew 39.9% beating our
estimate mainly owing to the top-line growth, higher EBITDA margins and lower tax
provision (15.5%).
Outlook and Valuation: NHAI has targeted to award orders worth `1lakh cr over
the next one year with a target of constructing 20km/day. We believe if NHAI is
able to achieve even 50% of its target, it would imply abundant opportunities for
road developers like IRB. Hence, we are optimistic on the road segment. We have
valued IRB on SOTP basis with a Fair Value of `273, wherein the road BOT SPVs
have been valued on NPV basis (FY2012E) and have assigned 10% growth
premium (`149.8/share); the construction segment has been valued at 8x FY2012E
EV/EBITDA (`118.1/share); other investments have been valued at 1.5x FY2010
book value (`4.5/share). We remain Neutral on the stock, with limited upside from
current levels.
Key Financials (Consolidated)
Y/E March (` cr) FY2009 FY2010 FY2011E FY2012E
Net Sales 992 1,705 2,675 3,672
% chg 35.4 71.9 56.9 37.3
Adj.Net Profit 175.8 385.4 432.5 522.4
% chg 54.4 119.2 12.2 20.8
EBITDA (%) 44.1 46.9 42.2 40.5
FDEPS (`) 5.3 11.6 13.0 15.7
P/E (x) 50.3 22.9 20.4 16.9
P/BV (x) 5.1 4.3 3.7 3.1
RoE (%) 10.5 20.4 19.5 20.0
RoCE (%) 8.1 13.2 15.0 14.0
EV/Sales (x) 11.0 6.6 4.9 3.9
EV/EBITDA (x) 24.9 14.1 11.5 9.7
Source: Company, Angel Research
NEUTRAL
CMP `266
Target Price -
Investment Period -
Stock Info
Sector
Bloomberg Code
Shareholding Pattern (%)
Promoters 75.0
MF / Banks / Indian Fls 8.3
FII / NRIs / OCBs 12.9
Indian Public / Others 3.9
Abs. (%) 3m 1yr 3yr#
Sensex 10.7 22.3 13.3
IRB 2.3 8.3 39.1
#Note: Since Listing on February 25,2008
Face Value (Rs)
BSE Sensex
Nifty
Reuters Code
8,841
1
313/228
424,397
Infrastructure
Avg. Daily Volume
Market Cap (` cr)
Beta
52 Week High / Low
10
19,941
5,988
IRBI.BO
IRB@IN
Shailesh Kanani
+91 22 -4040 3800 Ext: 321
shailesh.kanani@angeltrade.com
Nitin Arora
+91 22 -4040 3800 Ext: 314
nitin.arora@angeltrade.com
IRB Infrastructure
Performance Highlights
2QFY2011 Result Update | Infrastructure
October 28, 2010
IRB Infrastructure | 2QFY2011 Result Update
October 28, 2010 2
Exhibit 1: 2QFY2011 performance (Consolidated)
Y/E March (` cr) 2QFY11 2QFY10 % chg(yoy) 1QFY11 % chg(qoq) 1HFY11 1HFY10 % chg(yoy)
Income from Operations 490.3 355.9 37.8 512.0 (4.2) 1,002 770.0 30.2
Total Expenditure 253.9 181.2 40.2 262.7 (3.3) 517 429.1 20.4
Operating Profit 236.4 174.7 35.3 229.3 3.1 #
465.7 340.9 36.6
OPM (%) 48.2 49.1 (90)bp 44.8 340bp 46.5 44.3 220bp
Interest 69.3 47.7 45.4 66.1 4.8 135 94.4 43.5
Depreciation 54.4 39.6 37.4 53.7 1.4 108 77.3 39.9
Non Operating Income 8.2 7.4 11.3 21.7 (62.1) 30 28.9 3.5
Nonrecurring items/Dividend from SPV's 0.0 0.0 - 20.0 - #
20 - -
Profit Before tax 120.9 94.8 27.5 151.2 (20.0) 272.0 198.1 37.3
Tax 19.0 20.5 30.3 49 38.7 27.6
PAT 101.8 74.3 37.0 120.8 (15.7) 222.7 159.5 39.6
Share of Profits/ (Losses) of Asso. 0.0 0.0 - 0.0 - - - -
Share of Profits/ (Losses) of MI 2.7 3.5 (22.0) 3.3 (17.9) 6 7.2 -
PAT after MI and Share of Assoc. 99.1 70.8 39.9 117.5 (15.7) 216.6 152.3 42.2
PAT (%) 20.2 19.9 - 22.9 - 21.6 19.8 -
FDEPS (`) 3.0 2.1 39.9 3.5 (15.7) 6.5 4.6 42.2
Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: #
Dividend of `20cr from SPV has been deducted from operating profit and put under extra-ordinary income
Exhibit 2: Segmental revenue break up - Construction segment posting robust growth
Particulars 2QFY11 2QFY10 % chg 1QFY11 % chg 1HFY11 1HFY10 % chg
Construction Segment 295.4 201.8 46.4 330.1 (10.5) 625.5 476.7 31.2
BOT Segment 203.2 161.5 25.8 203.6 (0.2) 406.7 322.2 26.2
Total Income 498.5 363.3 37.2 533.7 (6.6) 1,032.2 798.9 29.2
Construction Segment 71.0 41.7 70.1 95.2 (25.4) 166.2 92.3 80.1
BOT Segment 173.6 140.4 23.7 175.8 (1.2) 349.3 277.5 25.9
EBITDA 244.6 182.1 34.3 271.0 (9.7) 515.6 369.8 39.4
Construction Segment (%) 24.0 20.7 330bp 28.8 (480)bp 26.6 19.4 720bp
BOT Segment (%) 85.4 86.9 (150)bp 86.3 (90)bp 85.9 86.1 (20)bp
EBITDAM (%) 49.1 50.1 (100)bp 50.8 (170)bp 49.9 46.3 360bp
Construction Segment 6.8 6.1 11.0 5.9 15.2 12.6 12.3 2.3
BOT Segment 62.5 41.6 50.4 60.2 3.8 122.8 82.0 49.7
Financial Expenses 69.3 47.7 45.4 66.1 4.8 135.4 94.4 43.5
Construction Segment 11.8 13.3 (11.2) 11.0 7.5 22.8 26.2 (13.2)
BOT Segment 42.6 26.3 61.9 42.7 (0.2) 85.3 51.0 67.2
Depreciation & Amortisation 54.4 39.6 37.4 53.7 1.4 108.1 77.3 39.9
Construction Segment 52.5 22.4 134.5 78.4 (33.1) 130.8 53.7 143.5
BOT Segment 68.4 72.5 (5.6) 72.8 (6.0) 141.2 144.4 (2.2)
PBT 120.9 94.8 27.5 151.2 (20.0) 272.1 198.2 37.3
Construction Segment 37.0 14.5 156.0 55.9 (33.8) 93.0 39.8 133.7
BOT Segment 64.5 59.8 7.8 64.9 (0.5) 129.4 119.7 8.1
PAT 101.6 74.3 36.7 120.8 (15.9) 222.4 159.5 39.5
Source: Company, Angel Research
IRB Infrastructure | 2QFY2011 Result Update
October 28, 2010 3
Exhibit 3: 2QFY2011 Actual v/s Angel estimates
Parameter Estimates Actual Variation
Revenues 465.4 490.3 5.3
EBITDA Margin (%) 44.9 48.2 330bp
PAT 66.9 99.1 48.1
Source: Company, Angel Research
Exhibit 4: Road BOT - Project-wise growth in toll revenue
Project 2QFY11 2QFY10 % chg 1QFY11 % chg (qoq) 1HFY11 1HFY10 % chg (yoy)
Surat Dahisar BOT Project^ 82.8 78.0 6.2 88.2 (6.1) 171.0 155.8 9.8
Mumbai - Pune BOT Project 80.3 76.7 4.7 80.2 0.1 160.5 153.1 4.8
Thane Bhiwandi Bypass 4 Lane BOT Project 12.2 11.2 9.4 13.3 (8.3) 25.5 22.4 14.1
Thane Ghodbunder BOT Project 6.5 6.7 (2.8) 7.2 (9.7) 13.7 13.6 0.8
Pune - Nashik BOT Project 5.3 4.3 22.2 4.8 10.4 10.1 8.5 18.3
Pune - Sholapur BOT Project 3.1 3.1 1.3 3.6 (13.9) 6.7 6.7 0.6
Nagar - Karmala - Tembhurni BOT Project 3.5 3.4 1.7 3.8 (7.9) 7.3 6.3 15.1
Mohol - Mandrup - Kamtee BOT Project 2.0 1.8 12.0 1.7 17.6 3.7 3.5 6.1
Kharpada Bridge BOT Project 1.5 1.5 (2.9) 1.9 (21.1) 3.4 3.3 1.7
Bharuch - Surat BOT Project $ 30.5 2.1 - 29.8 2.3 60.3 2.1 2,754.2
Kaman - Paygaon BOT Project ** - 0.8 - - - - 1.7 -
Khambatki Ghat BOT Project * - - - - - - 1.2 -
Total 227.7 189.6 20.1 234.5 (2.9) 462.2 378.2 22.2
Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: * Concession period of Khambatki Ghat BOT project ended on May 3, 2009, ^
Surat-Dahisar commissioned on
February 20, 2009, ^^
Bharuch Surat BOT project commissioned on September 25, 2009, ** Kaman-Paygaon BOT project concession period stopped from
November 22, 2009
Top-line tad above our estimates
IRB reported robust top-line growth of 37.8% to `490.3cr above our expectations
of `465.4cr. This was primarily due to growth of 46.4% in the construction vertical
as against our estimate of 33% growth for the quarter. Management has indicated
that the construction segment has posted robust numbers due to execution pick up
in two of its recently bagged projects namely – Amritsar Pathankot and Jaipur
Deoli – we have factored in the same from next quarter onwards. Further, the
remaining two projects (Goa Karnataka and Talegaon Amravati) are also expected
to contribute to the construction segment from 3QFY2011 onwards. Hence, the
segment is expected to maintain its growth trend. It should be noted that
management has guided for top-line of `1,800-1,900cr for the construction
segment for the fiscal, implying a growth of ~80% over FY2010 and a run rate of
~115-125% for 2HFY2011. We believe this is achievable considering projects
worth `5,500cr will be under the construction phase in 2HFY2011 and
performance is seasonally weak during the second quarter.
IRB Infrastructure | 2QFY2011 Result Update
October 28, 2010 4
Exhibit 5: Higher top-line growth expected in 2HFY2011
Source: Company, Angel Research
IRB continues to post above industry average EBITDA margins
IRB continues to surprise on the margin front and posted EBITDA margins of 48.2%
for 2QFY2011 as against our expectation of 44.9%. We were expecting margins to
be under pressure for the quarter on account of higher revenues from the
construction segment. However, the company surprised with the construction
segment posting EBITDA margins of 24.0% for the quarter, a yoy jump of 330bp.
Bottom-line grew 39.9% beating our estimate mainly owing to the top-line growth,
higher EBITDA margins and lower tax provision at 15.5%.
Exhibit 6: Healthy EBITDA margins
Source: Company, Angel Research
Exhibit 7: PATM impacted by higher interest cost
Source: Company, Angel Research
Outlook and Valuation
NHAI has targeted to award orders worth `1lakh cr over the next one year in line
with the long-term target of constructing 20km/day. We believe if NHAI is able to
achieve even 50% of its target, it would imply abundant opportunities for road
developers like IRB. Further, the recent structural changes have also lessened the
vagaries in road development. Hence, we are optimistic on the road segment. IRB
has one of the largest domestic BOT project portfolios in the road and highway
sector comprising 16 projects. In light of the immense opportunities that exist in the
road sector in the near future along with IRB’s vast experience and integrated
business model, we maintain our bullish stance on the company. Moreover, IRB’s
construction arm has a robust order book of `7,191cr (excluding O&M orders)
(4.1x FY201E construction revenues), which lends high revenue visibility.
80.0
76.5
81.1
56.3
23.6
37.8
-
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
90.0
0.0
100.0
200.0
300.0
400.0
500.0
600.0
1QFY10 2QFY10 3QFY10 4QFY10 1QFY11 2QFY11
Net Sales (Rs cr, LHS) Growth (yoy %, RHS)
49.5
42.5
37.5
40.1
49.1
52.4
46.0
40.5
48.2
-
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
-
50.0
100.0
150.0
200.0
250.0
300.0
2QFY09
3QFY09
4QFY09
1QFY10
2QFY10
3QFY10
4QFY10
1QFY11
2QFY11
EBITDA (Rs cr) EBITDAM (%, RHS)
20.4
16.0
13.6
19.7 19.9
22.0
28.2
22.9
20.2
-
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
140.0
160.0
2QFY09
3QFY09
4QFY09
1QFY10
2QFY10
3QFY10
4QFY10
1QFY11
2QFY11
PAT (Rs cr, LHS) PATM (%, RHS)
IRB Infrastructure | 2QFY2011 Result Update
October 28, 2010 5
We have valued IRB on an SOTP basis with a Fair Value of `273 wherein the road
BOT SPVs have been valued on NPV basis (FY2012E) and have assigned 10%
growth premium (`149.8/share); the construction segment has been valued at 8x
FY2012E EV/EBITDA (`118.1/share); other investments have been valued at 1.5x
FY2010 book value (`4.5/share). We maintain our Neutral view on the stock on
account of limited upside from current levels.
Exhibit 8: SOTP break up
Business Segment Methodology ` cr IRB’s stake (%) `/share % to Target Price
4 BOT Projects FCFE 287 100 8.6 3.2
Kharpada Bridge BOT Project FCFE 35 100 1.0 0.4
Nagar-Karmala Tembhurni BOT Project FCFE 78 100 2.4 0.9
Mohol-Mandup-Kamtee BOT Project FCFE 45 100 1.3 0.5
Pune-Solapur BOT Project FCFE 104 100 3.1 1.1
Pune-Nashik BOT Project FCFE 176 100 5.3 1.9
Mumbai-Pune BOT Project FCFE 1,549 100 46.6 17.1
Thane Ghodbunder BOT Project FCFE 268 100 8.1 3.0
Surat Dahisat BOT Project FCFE 222 90 6.0 2.2
Bharuch-Surat BOT Project FCFE 616 100 18.5 6.8
IRDP Kolhapur FCFE 506 100 15.2 5.6
Goa Karnataka Border FCFE 184 100 5.5 2.0
Pathankot-Amritsar FCFE 103 100 3.1 1.1
Jaipur Deoli FCFE 48 100 1.4 0.5
Talegaon-Amravati FCFE 89 100 2.7 1.0
Tumkur-Chitradurga FCFE 242 100 7.3 2.7
Total Road BOT Asset Portfolio Valuation 136.2
Value post 10% growth premium 149.8 5.0
Modern Road Makers Pvt.Ltd EV/EBITDA 3,924 118.1 43.3
Land Parcel Valuation 1.5x Book Value 130 3.9 1.4
Sindhudurg Airport Project 1.5x Book Value 15 0.7 0.2
Total 272.5 100.0
Source: Company, Angel Research
IRB Infrastructure | 2QFY2011 Result Update
October 28, 2010 6
Exhibit 9: Key Assumptions
Project
4 BOT
Proj
Kharpada NKT MMK
Pune
Solapur
Pune
Nashik
Mumbai-
Pune
Thane
Ghod
Bharuch
-Surat
Surat
Dahisat
IRDP
Kolhapur
Goa
Karnataka
Pathankot
Amritsar
Jaipur
Deoli
Talegaon
Amravati
Tumkur-
Chitradurga
Status Oper Oper. Oper. Oper. Oper. Oper. Oper. Oper. Oper. Under Dev. Under Dev. Under Dev. Under Dev. Under Dev. Under Dev. Under Dev.
KM 24 1.4 60 33.4 26 30 206 15 65 240 50 69 102.4 146.3 66.7 114
Issuing Auth. PWD MORTH PWD PWD MORTH MORTH MSRDC MSRDC NHAI NHAI MSRDC NHAI NHAI NHAI NHAI NHAI
State Mah. Mah. Mah. Mah. Mah. Mah. Mah. Mah. Guj Guj./Mah Mah. Goa Punjab Raj Mah. Kar
Concession(Yrs) 18.5 17.8 15 16 16 18 15 15 15 12 30 30 20 25 22 26
Con. Start Jan-99 Sep-99 Dec-01 May-02 Mar-03 Sep-03 Aug-04 Dec-05 Dec-06 Feb-09 Jan-09 Apr-10 Nov-09 Apr-10 Apr-10 Apr-11
Con. End May-17 Aug-15 Dec-16 May-18 Mar-19 Sep-21 Aug-19 Dec-20 Dec-21 Feb-21 Jan-39 Apr-40 Nov-29 Mar-35 Apr-32 Apr-37
TPC (` cr) 104 32 37 18 63 73.7 1301 246 1470 2400 403 836 1445 1733 888 1200
Equity (` cr) 34 10 15 7 18 1 120 40 198 879 172 260 394 527 197 450
Debt (` cr) 70 22 22 11 45 72.7 1181 206 1272 1521 258 390 924 900 475 750
Grant (` cr) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 (504) 0 (27) 186 127 306 216 0
Traffic inc (%) 7 8 7 7 7 7 18# 7 7 8 7 7 7 7 7 7
Toll inc (%) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6
Int Rate (%) - - - - - - 10.5 10.5 10.8 10.8 11.5 10.5 10.5 10.5 10.5 10.8
Source: Company, Angel Research, Note: # Every 3 years
Exhibit 10: Angel EPS forecast v/s consensus
Angel Forecast Bloomberg consensus Variation (%)
FY2011E 13.0 14.4 10.7
FY2012E 15.7 16.6 5.3
Source: Company, Angel Research
Investment Arguments
Vast opportunity in the road sector IRB the prime beneficiary: IRB has some of
the very high-density, strategically aligned road stretched in its gamut. These
high-density stretches reduce the average payback period for a typical road BOT
project. The Government of India is aggressively focusing on road development
and expects to award road BOT projects worth `1lakh cr in FY2011, after a dismal
award activity in FY2009. About 34% of this proposed investment is expected to
come through to the private sector, and we believe that IRB stands to benefit from
the same.
Integrated road play: IRB has an integrated business model wherein the internal
construction arm, MRMPL, undertakes EPC work relating to secured road BOT
projects. While the time-bound construction work of secured road BOT projects
lends revenue visibility for the construction arm, any prior completion of
construction work ushers in revenue upsides from the road BOT (toll) segment. We
believe that owing to this integrated business model the company is straddled
across the complete value chain in road development.
IRB Infrastructure | 2QFY2011 Result Update
October 28, 2010 7
Exhibit 11: Recommendation Summary
Company CMP TP Rating Top-line (` cr) EPS (`) *Adj. P/E (x) OB/
FY10 FY11E FY12E CAGR (%) FY10 FY11E FY12E CAGR (%) FY10 FY11E FY12E Sale( x)
CCCL 81 - Neutral 1,976 2,397 2,891 21.0 5.0 5.0 6.7 16.2 16.4 16.3 12.1 2.1
Gammon India 196 - Neutral 4,489 5,575 6,607 21.3 8.4 10.0 12.1 20.0 10.9 9.2 7.6 2.9
HCC 62 - Neutral 3,629 4,146 4,900 16.2 1.3 1.6 1.9 19.0 18.1 15.4 12.8 5.2
IRB Infra 266 - Neutral 1,705 2,675 3,672 46.8 11.6 13.0 15.7 16.4 9.0 8.0 6.7 -
IVRCL 151 216 Buy 5,492 6,493 8,071 21.2 7.8 8.8 10.9 18.2 11.2 10.0 8.0 3.9
JP Assoc. 122 160 Buy 10,355 13,412 17,952 31.7 4.7 4.5 7.6 27.8 26.3 27.2 16.1 -
Punj Lloyd 123 156 Buy 10,448 9,756 12,402 9.0 (10.9) 5.6 11.2 - - 22.0 11.0 2.4
NCC 150 201 Buy 4,778 5,738 6,588 17.4 7.8 8.6 9.8 12.1 14.2 12.9 11.3 3.4
Sadbhav 1,438 1,702 Buy 1,257 1,621 1,986 25.7 43.0 77.4 89.8 44.4 13.9 7.7 6.7 5.3
Simplex In. 489 573 Buy 4,564 5,460 6,543 19.7 25.6 33.0 40.9 26.4 19.1 14.8 12.0 2.5
Patel Engg 370 565 Buy 3,191 3,693 4,297 16.0 28.4 30.8 32.7 7.3 9.2 8.5 8.0 2.5
Madhucon 145 173 Buy 1,388 1,737 2,164 24.9 6.2 7.3 9.1 21.6 11.0 9.3 7.4 2.9
L&T 2,003 - Neutral 37,035 44,047 55,519 22.4 47.4 54.9 68.7 20.4 32.1 27.7 22.2 2.8
ITNL 311 358 Accu. 2,403 3,480 6,071 59.0 17.7 21.8 25.9 20.8 17.5 14.2 12.0 6.7
Source: Company, Angel Research
Exhibit 12: SOTP break up
Company Core Const. Real Estate Road BOT Invst. In Subsidiaries Others Total
` % to TP ` % to TP ` % to TP ` % to TP ` % to TP `
CCCL 80 100 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 80
Gammon India 121 54 0 0 0 0 0 0 104 46 225
HCC 26 41 29 46 8 13 0 0 0 0 63
IRB Infra 118 43 0 0 150 55 5 2 0 0 273
IVRCL 162 75 0 0 0 0 54 25 0 0 216
JP Assoc. 69 43 42 27 0 0 0 0 48 30 160
Punj Lloyd 156 100 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 156
NCC 138 69 7 3 32 16 0 0 24 12 201
Sadbhav 862 51 0 0 840 49 0 0 0 0 1702
Simplex In. 573 100 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 573
Patel Engg 458 81 56 10 16 3 0 0 36 6 565
Madhucon 91 53 4 2 52 30 0 0 25 15 173
L&T 1542 76 0 0 0 0 482 24 0 0 2024
ITNL 159 44 0 0 151 42 0 0 48 13 358
Source: Company, Angel Research
IRB Infrastructure | 2QFY2011 Result Update
October 28, 2010 8
Profit & loss statement (Consolidated)
Y/E March (` cr) FY2008 FY2009 FY2010 FY2011E FY2012E
Gross sales 732.7 991.9 1,704.9 2,675.2 3,671.8
Less: Excise duty - - - - -
Net Sales 732.7 991.9 1,704.9 2,675.2 3,671.8
Other operating income - - - - -
Total operating income 732.7 991.9 1,704.9 2,675.2 3,671.8
% chg 139.7 35.4 71.9 56.9 37.3
Total Expenditure 320.8 554.5 905.8 1,546.2 2,184.7
Net Raw Materials 158.9 305.4 450.2 807.9 1,156.6
Other Mfg costs 39.2 57.0 65.4 159.2 227.7
Personnel 95.3 134.5 283.8 429.4 598.5
Other 27.4 57.6 106.4 149.8 201.9
EBITDA 411.9 437.4 799.0 1,128.9 1,487.1
% chg 148.9 6.2 82.7 41.3 31.7
(% of Net Sales) 56.2 44.1 46.9 42.2 40.5
Depreciation& Amortisation 101.6 114.4 181.9 216.6 365.8
EBIT 310.3 323.0 617.1 912.4 1,121.3
% chg 174.8 4.1 91.0 47.8 22.9
(% of Net Sales) 42.3 32.6 36.2 34.1 30.5
Interest & other Charges 195.8 137.7 249.4 355.7 445.3
Other Income 52.0 29.6 49.0 23.6 43.4
(% of PBT) 31.2 13.8 11.7 4.1 6.0
Share in profit of Associates - - - - -
Recurring PBT 166.5 214.9 416.7 580.3 719.4
% chg 273.4 29.1 93.8 39.3 24.0
Extraordinary Expense/(Inc.) - - - - -
PBT (reported) 166.5 214.9 416.7 580.3 719.4
Tax 40.0 37.8 13.3 127.7 172.7
(% of PBT) 24.0 17.6 3.2 22.0 24.0
PAT (reported) 126.5 177.2 403.4 452.6 546.7
Add: Share of earnings of associate - - - - -
Less: Minority interest (MI) 12.6 1.3 17.9 20.1 24.3
Prior period items - - - - -
PAT after MI (reported) 113.9 175.8 385.4 432.5 522.4
ADJ. PAT 113.9 175.8 385.4 432.5 522.4
% chg 403.9 54.4 119.2 12.2 20.8
(% of Net Sales) 15.5 17.7 22.6 16.2 14.2
Basic EPS (`) 4.2 5.3 11.6 13.0 15.7
Fully Diluted EPS (`) 4.2 5.3 11.6 13.0 15.7
% chg 357.3 26.6 119.2 12.2 20.8
IRB Infrastructure | 2QFY2011 Result Update
October 28, 2010 9
Balance sheet (Consolidated)
Y/E March (` cr) FY2008 FY2009 FY2010 FY2011E FY2012E
SOURCES OF FUNDS
Equity Share Capital 332.4 332.4 332.4 332.4 332.4
Preference Capital - - - - -
Reserves& Surplus 1,288 1,398 1,708 2,064 2,507
Shareholder’s Funds 1,621 1,730 2,040 2,397 2,840
Minority Interest 28 60 78 78 78
Total Loans 2,021 2,486 2,915 4,569 5,966
Deferred Tax Liability 3 18 27 27 27
Total Liabilities 3,673 4,294 5,060 7,071 8,910
APPLICATION OF FUNDS
Gross Block 2,219 2,460 4,019 5,628 8,658
Less: Acc. Depreciation 334 444 551 768 1,133
Net Block 1,885 2,016 3,467 4,860 7,524
Capital Work-in-Progress 889 1,455 880 1,201 125
Goodwill - - - - -
Investments 198 111 45 45 45
Current Assets 959 1,033 1,148 1,710 2,298
Cash 522 415 510 403 414
Loans & Advances 375 399 438 629 900
Other 62 218 199 678 984
Current liabilities 260 321 482 746 1,083
Net Current Assets 699 712 666 964 1,215
Misc. Exp. not written off 2 1 1 1 1
Total Assets 3,673 4,294 5,060 7,071 8,910
IRB Infrastructure | 2QFY2011 Result Update
October 28, 2010 10
Cash flow statement (Consolidated)
Y/E March (` cr) FY2008 FY2009 FY2010 FY2011E FY2012E
Profit before tax 166.5 214.9 416.7 560.1 695.1
Depreciation 101.6 114.4 181.9 216.6 365.8
Change in Working Capital 41.9 120.0 (141.0) 404.6 240.0
Less: Other income 52.0 29.6 49.0 23.6 43.4
Direct taxes paid 40.0 37.8 13.3 127.7 172.7
Cash Flow from Operations 134.2 141.9 677.3 220.9 604.8
(Inc.)/ Dec. in Fixed Assets (433.1) (806.9) (984.1) (1,929.7) (1,954.4)
(Inc.)/ Dec. in Investments (156.8) 87.3 65.8 - -
Other income 52.0 29.6 49.0 23.6 43.4
Cash Flow from Investing (537.9) (690.1) (869.4) (1,906.1) (1,911.0)
Issue of Equity 1,089.9 (1.3) - - -
Inc./(Dec.) in loans (496.7) 464.6 429.4 1,654.0 1,396.3
Dividend Paid (Incl. Tax) 3.0 65.2 75.6 75.6 79.4
Others 63.2 42.6 (66.2) - -
Cash Flow from Financing 653.5 440.7 287.6 1,578.4 1,317.0
Inc./(Dec.) in Cash 249.9 (107.4) 95.5 (106.8) 10.8
Opening Cash balances 272.3 522.1 414.7 510.2 403.4
Closing Cash balances 522.1 414.7 510.2 403.4 414.1
IRB Infrastructure | 2QFY2011 Result Update
October 28, 2010 11
Key Ratios
Y/E March FY2008 FY2009 FY2010 FY2011E FY2012E
Valuation Ratio (x)
P/E (on FDEPS) 77.6 50.3 22.9 20.4 16.9
P/CEPS 41.0 30.5 15.6 13.6 10.0
P/BV 5.5 5.1 4.3 3.7 3.1
Dividend yield (%) 0.0 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6
EV/Sales 14.1 11.0 6.6 4.9 3.9
EV/EBITDA 25.1 24.9 14.1 11.5 9.7
EV / Total Assets 2.8 2.5 2.2 1.8 1.6
Per Share Data (`)
EPS (Basic) 3.4 5.3 11.6 13.0 15.7
EPS (fully diluted) 3.4 5.3 11.6 13.0 15.7
Cash EPS 6.5 8.7 17.1 19.5 26.7
DPS 0.0 1.5 1.2 1.7 1.7
Book Value 48.8 52.1 61.4 72.1 85.4
DuPont Analysis
EBIT margin 42.3 32.6 36.2 34.1 30.5
Tax retention ratio 76.0 82.4 96.8 78.0 76.0
Asset turnover (x) 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5
ROIC (Post-tax) 8.1 7.6 14.2 12.7 11.2
Cost of Debt (Post Tax) 6.6 5.0 8.9 7.4 6.4
Leverage (x) 3.3 1.1 1.2 1.5 1.8
Operating ROE 13.4 10.3 20.4 20.4 20.1
Returns (%)
ROCE (Pre-tax) 9.3 8.1 13.2 15.0 14.0
Angel ROIC (Pre-tax) 14.3 13.8 20.3 20.0 16.2
ROE 11.4 10.5 20.4 19.5 20.0
Turnover ratios (x)
Asset Turnover (Gross Block) 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.5
Inventory / Sales (days) 15 47 40 56 79
Receivables (days) 39 5 5 4 4
Payables (days) 118 77 58 57 68
Working capital cycle (ex-cash) (days) 78 87 48 49 68
Solvency ratios (x)
Net debt to equity 0.9 1.2 1.2 1.7 2.0
Net debt to EBITDA 3.6 4.7 3.0 3.7 3.7
Interest Coverage (EBIT / Interest) 1.6 2.3 2.5 2.6 2.5
IRB Infrastructure | 2QFY2011 Result Update
October 28, 2010 12
Research Team Tel: 022 - 4040 3800 E-mail: research@angeltrade.com Website: www.angeltrade.com
DISCLAIMER
This document is solely for the personal information of the recipient, and must not be singularly used as the basis of any investment
decision. Nothing in this document should be construed as investment or financial advice. Each recipient of this document should make
such investigations as they deem necessary to arrive at an independent evaluation of an investment in the securities of the companies
referred to in this document (including the merits and risks involved), and should consult their own advisors to determine the merits and
risks of such an investment.
Angel Broking Limited, its affiliates, directors, its proprietary trading and investment businesses may, from time to time, make
investment decisions that are inconsistent with or contradictory to the recommendations expressed herein. The views contained in this
document are those of the analyst, and the company may or may not subscribe to all the views expressed within.
Reports based on technical and derivative analysis center on studying charts of a stock's price movement, outstanding positions and
trading volume, as opposed to focusing on a company's fundamentals and, as such, may not match with a report on a company's
fundamentals.
The information in this document has been printed on the basis of publicly available information, internal data and other reliable
sources believed to be true, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete and it should not be relied on as such, as this
document is for general guidance only. Angel Broking Limited or any of its affiliates/ group companies shall not be in any way
responsible for any loss or damage that may arise to any person from any inadvertent error in the information contained in this report.
Angel Broking Limited has not independently verified all the information contained within this document. Accordingly, we cannot testify,
nor make any representation or warranty, express or implied, to the accuracy, contents or data contained within this document. While
Angel Broking Limited endeavours to update on a reasonable basis the information discussed in this material, there may be regulatory,
compliance, or other reasons that prevent us from doing so.
This document is being supplied to you solely for your information, and its contents, information or data may not be reproduced,
redistributed or passed on, directly or indirectly.
Angel Broking Limited and its affiliates may seek to provide or have engaged in providing corporate finance, investment banking or
other advisory services in a merger or specific transaction to the companies referred to in this report, as on the date of this report or in
the past.
Neither Angel Broking Limited, nor its directors, employees or affiliates shall be liable for any loss or damage that may arise from or in
connection with the use of this information.
Note: Please refer to the important `Stock Holding Disclosure' report on the Angel website (Research Section). Also, please
refer to the latest update on respective stocks for the disclosure status in respect of those stocks. Angel Broking Limited and
its affiliates may have investment positions in the stocks recommended in this report.
Disclosure of Interest Statement IRB Infra
1. Analyst ownership of the stock No
2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock No
3. Angel and its Group companies' Directors ownership of the stock No
4. Broking relationship with company covered No
Note: We have not considered any Exposure below Rs 1 lakh for Angel, its Group companies and Directors.
Ratings (Returns) : Buy (> 15%) Accumulate (5% to 15%) Neutral (-5 to 5%)
Reduce (-5% to 15%) Sell (< -15%)

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Irb ru2 qfy2011-281010

  • 1. Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report 1 Y/E March (` cr) 2QFY11 2QFY10 1QFY11 % chg (yoy) % chg (qoq) Net Sales 490.3 355.9 512.0 37.8 (4.2) Op. Profit 236.4 174.7 229.3 35.3 3.1 Net Profit 99.1 70.8 117.5 39.9 (15.7) Source: Company, Angel Research IRB Infrastructure (IRB) reported consolidated numbers above our estimates, primarily led by robust top-line growth in the construction segment, higher EBITDA margins and lower tax provision. However, at current levels the stock offers limited upside to our SOTP Target Price of `273 hence, we maintain Neutral on the stock. Performance above estimates: IRB reported robust top-line growth of 37.8% to `490.3cr. Management has indicated that construction segment has posted robust numbers due to the execution pick up in two of its recently bagged projects – Amritsar Pathankot and Jaipur Deoli – we have factored in the same from the next quarter onwards. Further, the remaining two projects (Goa Karnataka and Talegaon Amravati) are expected to contribute to the segment from 3QFY2011 onwards. Hence, the segment is expected to maintain its growth trend. IRB continues to surprise on the margin front and posted EBITDA margins of 48.2% for 2QFY2011 v/s our expectation of 44.9%. Bottom-line grew 39.9% beating our estimate mainly owing to the top-line growth, higher EBITDA margins and lower tax provision (15.5%). Outlook and Valuation: NHAI has targeted to award orders worth `1lakh cr over the next one year with a target of constructing 20km/day. We believe if NHAI is able to achieve even 50% of its target, it would imply abundant opportunities for road developers like IRB. Hence, we are optimistic on the road segment. We have valued IRB on SOTP basis with a Fair Value of `273, wherein the road BOT SPVs have been valued on NPV basis (FY2012E) and have assigned 10% growth premium (`149.8/share); the construction segment has been valued at 8x FY2012E EV/EBITDA (`118.1/share); other investments have been valued at 1.5x FY2010 book value (`4.5/share). We remain Neutral on the stock, with limited upside from current levels. Key Financials (Consolidated) Y/E March (` cr) FY2009 FY2010 FY2011E FY2012E Net Sales 992 1,705 2,675 3,672 % chg 35.4 71.9 56.9 37.3 Adj.Net Profit 175.8 385.4 432.5 522.4 % chg 54.4 119.2 12.2 20.8 EBITDA (%) 44.1 46.9 42.2 40.5 FDEPS (`) 5.3 11.6 13.0 15.7 P/E (x) 50.3 22.9 20.4 16.9 P/BV (x) 5.1 4.3 3.7 3.1 RoE (%) 10.5 20.4 19.5 20.0 RoCE (%) 8.1 13.2 15.0 14.0 EV/Sales (x) 11.0 6.6 4.9 3.9 EV/EBITDA (x) 24.9 14.1 11.5 9.7 Source: Company, Angel Research NEUTRAL CMP `266 Target Price - Investment Period - Stock Info Sector Bloomberg Code Shareholding Pattern (%) Promoters 75.0 MF / Banks / Indian Fls 8.3 FII / NRIs / OCBs 12.9 Indian Public / Others 3.9 Abs. (%) 3m 1yr 3yr# Sensex 10.7 22.3 13.3 IRB 2.3 8.3 39.1 #Note: Since Listing on February 25,2008 Face Value (Rs) BSE Sensex Nifty Reuters Code 8,841 1 313/228 424,397 Infrastructure Avg. Daily Volume Market Cap (` cr) Beta 52 Week High / Low 10 19,941 5,988 IRBI.BO IRB@IN Shailesh Kanani +91 22 -4040 3800 Ext: 321 shailesh.kanani@angeltrade.com Nitin Arora +91 22 -4040 3800 Ext: 314 nitin.arora@angeltrade.com IRB Infrastructure Performance Highlights 2QFY2011 Result Update | Infrastructure October 28, 2010
  • 2. IRB Infrastructure | 2QFY2011 Result Update October 28, 2010 2 Exhibit 1: 2QFY2011 performance (Consolidated) Y/E March (` cr) 2QFY11 2QFY10 % chg(yoy) 1QFY11 % chg(qoq) 1HFY11 1HFY10 % chg(yoy) Income from Operations 490.3 355.9 37.8 512.0 (4.2) 1,002 770.0 30.2 Total Expenditure 253.9 181.2 40.2 262.7 (3.3) 517 429.1 20.4 Operating Profit 236.4 174.7 35.3 229.3 3.1 # 465.7 340.9 36.6 OPM (%) 48.2 49.1 (90)bp 44.8 340bp 46.5 44.3 220bp Interest 69.3 47.7 45.4 66.1 4.8 135 94.4 43.5 Depreciation 54.4 39.6 37.4 53.7 1.4 108 77.3 39.9 Non Operating Income 8.2 7.4 11.3 21.7 (62.1) 30 28.9 3.5 Nonrecurring items/Dividend from SPV's 0.0 0.0 - 20.0 - # 20 - - Profit Before tax 120.9 94.8 27.5 151.2 (20.0) 272.0 198.1 37.3 Tax 19.0 20.5 30.3 49 38.7 27.6 PAT 101.8 74.3 37.0 120.8 (15.7) 222.7 159.5 39.6 Share of Profits/ (Losses) of Asso. 0.0 0.0 - 0.0 - - - - Share of Profits/ (Losses) of MI 2.7 3.5 (22.0) 3.3 (17.9) 6 7.2 - PAT after MI and Share of Assoc. 99.1 70.8 39.9 117.5 (15.7) 216.6 152.3 42.2 PAT (%) 20.2 19.9 - 22.9 - 21.6 19.8 - FDEPS (`) 3.0 2.1 39.9 3.5 (15.7) 6.5 4.6 42.2 Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: # Dividend of `20cr from SPV has been deducted from operating profit and put under extra-ordinary income Exhibit 2: Segmental revenue break up - Construction segment posting robust growth Particulars 2QFY11 2QFY10 % chg 1QFY11 % chg 1HFY11 1HFY10 % chg Construction Segment 295.4 201.8 46.4 330.1 (10.5) 625.5 476.7 31.2 BOT Segment 203.2 161.5 25.8 203.6 (0.2) 406.7 322.2 26.2 Total Income 498.5 363.3 37.2 533.7 (6.6) 1,032.2 798.9 29.2 Construction Segment 71.0 41.7 70.1 95.2 (25.4) 166.2 92.3 80.1 BOT Segment 173.6 140.4 23.7 175.8 (1.2) 349.3 277.5 25.9 EBITDA 244.6 182.1 34.3 271.0 (9.7) 515.6 369.8 39.4 Construction Segment (%) 24.0 20.7 330bp 28.8 (480)bp 26.6 19.4 720bp BOT Segment (%) 85.4 86.9 (150)bp 86.3 (90)bp 85.9 86.1 (20)bp EBITDAM (%) 49.1 50.1 (100)bp 50.8 (170)bp 49.9 46.3 360bp Construction Segment 6.8 6.1 11.0 5.9 15.2 12.6 12.3 2.3 BOT Segment 62.5 41.6 50.4 60.2 3.8 122.8 82.0 49.7 Financial Expenses 69.3 47.7 45.4 66.1 4.8 135.4 94.4 43.5 Construction Segment 11.8 13.3 (11.2) 11.0 7.5 22.8 26.2 (13.2) BOT Segment 42.6 26.3 61.9 42.7 (0.2) 85.3 51.0 67.2 Depreciation & Amortisation 54.4 39.6 37.4 53.7 1.4 108.1 77.3 39.9 Construction Segment 52.5 22.4 134.5 78.4 (33.1) 130.8 53.7 143.5 BOT Segment 68.4 72.5 (5.6) 72.8 (6.0) 141.2 144.4 (2.2) PBT 120.9 94.8 27.5 151.2 (20.0) 272.1 198.2 37.3 Construction Segment 37.0 14.5 156.0 55.9 (33.8) 93.0 39.8 133.7 BOT Segment 64.5 59.8 7.8 64.9 (0.5) 129.4 119.7 8.1 PAT 101.6 74.3 36.7 120.8 (15.9) 222.4 159.5 39.5 Source: Company, Angel Research
  • 3. IRB Infrastructure | 2QFY2011 Result Update October 28, 2010 3 Exhibit 3: 2QFY2011 Actual v/s Angel estimates Parameter Estimates Actual Variation Revenues 465.4 490.3 5.3 EBITDA Margin (%) 44.9 48.2 330bp PAT 66.9 99.1 48.1 Source: Company, Angel Research Exhibit 4: Road BOT - Project-wise growth in toll revenue Project 2QFY11 2QFY10 % chg 1QFY11 % chg (qoq) 1HFY11 1HFY10 % chg (yoy) Surat Dahisar BOT Project^ 82.8 78.0 6.2 88.2 (6.1) 171.0 155.8 9.8 Mumbai - Pune BOT Project 80.3 76.7 4.7 80.2 0.1 160.5 153.1 4.8 Thane Bhiwandi Bypass 4 Lane BOT Project 12.2 11.2 9.4 13.3 (8.3) 25.5 22.4 14.1 Thane Ghodbunder BOT Project 6.5 6.7 (2.8) 7.2 (9.7) 13.7 13.6 0.8 Pune - Nashik BOT Project 5.3 4.3 22.2 4.8 10.4 10.1 8.5 18.3 Pune - Sholapur BOT Project 3.1 3.1 1.3 3.6 (13.9) 6.7 6.7 0.6 Nagar - Karmala - Tembhurni BOT Project 3.5 3.4 1.7 3.8 (7.9) 7.3 6.3 15.1 Mohol - Mandrup - Kamtee BOT Project 2.0 1.8 12.0 1.7 17.6 3.7 3.5 6.1 Kharpada Bridge BOT Project 1.5 1.5 (2.9) 1.9 (21.1) 3.4 3.3 1.7 Bharuch - Surat BOT Project $ 30.5 2.1 - 29.8 2.3 60.3 2.1 2,754.2 Kaman - Paygaon BOT Project ** - 0.8 - - - - 1.7 - Khambatki Ghat BOT Project * - - - - - - 1.2 - Total 227.7 189.6 20.1 234.5 (2.9) 462.2 378.2 22.2 Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: * Concession period of Khambatki Ghat BOT project ended on May 3, 2009, ^ Surat-Dahisar commissioned on February 20, 2009, ^^ Bharuch Surat BOT project commissioned on September 25, 2009, ** Kaman-Paygaon BOT project concession period stopped from November 22, 2009 Top-line tad above our estimates IRB reported robust top-line growth of 37.8% to `490.3cr above our expectations of `465.4cr. This was primarily due to growth of 46.4% in the construction vertical as against our estimate of 33% growth for the quarter. Management has indicated that the construction segment has posted robust numbers due to execution pick up in two of its recently bagged projects namely – Amritsar Pathankot and Jaipur Deoli – we have factored in the same from next quarter onwards. Further, the remaining two projects (Goa Karnataka and Talegaon Amravati) are also expected to contribute to the construction segment from 3QFY2011 onwards. Hence, the segment is expected to maintain its growth trend. It should be noted that management has guided for top-line of `1,800-1,900cr for the construction segment for the fiscal, implying a growth of ~80% over FY2010 and a run rate of ~115-125% for 2HFY2011. We believe this is achievable considering projects worth `5,500cr will be under the construction phase in 2HFY2011 and performance is seasonally weak during the second quarter.
  • 4. IRB Infrastructure | 2QFY2011 Result Update October 28, 2010 4 Exhibit 5: Higher top-line growth expected in 2HFY2011 Source: Company, Angel Research IRB continues to post above industry average EBITDA margins IRB continues to surprise on the margin front and posted EBITDA margins of 48.2% for 2QFY2011 as against our expectation of 44.9%. We were expecting margins to be under pressure for the quarter on account of higher revenues from the construction segment. However, the company surprised with the construction segment posting EBITDA margins of 24.0% for the quarter, a yoy jump of 330bp. Bottom-line grew 39.9% beating our estimate mainly owing to the top-line growth, higher EBITDA margins and lower tax provision at 15.5%. Exhibit 6: Healthy EBITDA margins Source: Company, Angel Research Exhibit 7: PATM impacted by higher interest cost Source: Company, Angel Research Outlook and Valuation NHAI has targeted to award orders worth `1lakh cr over the next one year in line with the long-term target of constructing 20km/day. We believe if NHAI is able to achieve even 50% of its target, it would imply abundant opportunities for road developers like IRB. Further, the recent structural changes have also lessened the vagaries in road development. Hence, we are optimistic on the road segment. IRB has one of the largest domestic BOT project portfolios in the road and highway sector comprising 16 projects. In light of the immense opportunities that exist in the road sector in the near future along with IRB’s vast experience and integrated business model, we maintain our bullish stance on the company. Moreover, IRB’s construction arm has a robust order book of `7,191cr (excluding O&M orders) (4.1x FY201E construction revenues), which lends high revenue visibility. 80.0 76.5 81.1 56.3 23.6 37.8 - 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0 70.0 80.0 90.0 0.0 100.0 200.0 300.0 400.0 500.0 600.0 1QFY10 2QFY10 3QFY10 4QFY10 1QFY11 2QFY11 Net Sales (Rs cr, LHS) Growth (yoy %, RHS) 49.5 42.5 37.5 40.1 49.1 52.4 46.0 40.5 48.2 - 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0 - 50.0 100.0 150.0 200.0 250.0 300.0 2QFY09 3QFY09 4QFY09 1QFY10 2QFY10 3QFY10 4QFY10 1QFY11 2QFY11 EBITDA (Rs cr) EBITDAM (%, RHS) 20.4 16.0 13.6 19.7 19.9 22.0 28.2 22.9 20.2 - 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0 0.0 20.0 40.0 60.0 80.0 100.0 120.0 140.0 160.0 2QFY09 3QFY09 4QFY09 1QFY10 2QFY10 3QFY10 4QFY10 1QFY11 2QFY11 PAT (Rs cr, LHS) PATM (%, RHS)
  • 5. IRB Infrastructure | 2QFY2011 Result Update October 28, 2010 5 We have valued IRB on an SOTP basis with a Fair Value of `273 wherein the road BOT SPVs have been valued on NPV basis (FY2012E) and have assigned 10% growth premium (`149.8/share); the construction segment has been valued at 8x FY2012E EV/EBITDA (`118.1/share); other investments have been valued at 1.5x FY2010 book value (`4.5/share). We maintain our Neutral view on the stock on account of limited upside from current levels. Exhibit 8: SOTP break up Business Segment Methodology ` cr IRB’s stake (%) `/share % to Target Price 4 BOT Projects FCFE 287 100 8.6 3.2 Kharpada Bridge BOT Project FCFE 35 100 1.0 0.4 Nagar-Karmala Tembhurni BOT Project FCFE 78 100 2.4 0.9 Mohol-Mandup-Kamtee BOT Project FCFE 45 100 1.3 0.5 Pune-Solapur BOT Project FCFE 104 100 3.1 1.1 Pune-Nashik BOT Project FCFE 176 100 5.3 1.9 Mumbai-Pune BOT Project FCFE 1,549 100 46.6 17.1 Thane Ghodbunder BOT Project FCFE 268 100 8.1 3.0 Surat Dahisat BOT Project FCFE 222 90 6.0 2.2 Bharuch-Surat BOT Project FCFE 616 100 18.5 6.8 IRDP Kolhapur FCFE 506 100 15.2 5.6 Goa Karnataka Border FCFE 184 100 5.5 2.0 Pathankot-Amritsar FCFE 103 100 3.1 1.1 Jaipur Deoli FCFE 48 100 1.4 0.5 Talegaon-Amravati FCFE 89 100 2.7 1.0 Tumkur-Chitradurga FCFE 242 100 7.3 2.7 Total Road BOT Asset Portfolio Valuation 136.2 Value post 10% growth premium 149.8 5.0 Modern Road Makers Pvt.Ltd EV/EBITDA 3,924 118.1 43.3 Land Parcel Valuation 1.5x Book Value 130 3.9 1.4 Sindhudurg Airport Project 1.5x Book Value 15 0.7 0.2 Total 272.5 100.0 Source: Company, Angel Research
  • 6. IRB Infrastructure | 2QFY2011 Result Update October 28, 2010 6 Exhibit 9: Key Assumptions Project 4 BOT Proj Kharpada NKT MMK Pune Solapur Pune Nashik Mumbai- Pune Thane Ghod Bharuch -Surat Surat Dahisat IRDP Kolhapur Goa Karnataka Pathankot Amritsar Jaipur Deoli Talegaon Amravati Tumkur- Chitradurga Status Oper Oper. Oper. Oper. Oper. Oper. Oper. Oper. Oper. Under Dev. Under Dev. Under Dev. Under Dev. Under Dev. Under Dev. Under Dev. KM 24 1.4 60 33.4 26 30 206 15 65 240 50 69 102.4 146.3 66.7 114 Issuing Auth. PWD MORTH PWD PWD MORTH MORTH MSRDC MSRDC NHAI NHAI MSRDC NHAI NHAI NHAI NHAI NHAI State Mah. Mah. Mah. Mah. Mah. Mah. Mah. Mah. Guj Guj./Mah Mah. Goa Punjab Raj Mah. Kar Concession(Yrs) 18.5 17.8 15 16 16 18 15 15 15 12 30 30 20 25 22 26 Con. Start Jan-99 Sep-99 Dec-01 May-02 Mar-03 Sep-03 Aug-04 Dec-05 Dec-06 Feb-09 Jan-09 Apr-10 Nov-09 Apr-10 Apr-10 Apr-11 Con. End May-17 Aug-15 Dec-16 May-18 Mar-19 Sep-21 Aug-19 Dec-20 Dec-21 Feb-21 Jan-39 Apr-40 Nov-29 Mar-35 Apr-32 Apr-37 TPC (` cr) 104 32 37 18 63 73.7 1301 246 1470 2400 403 836 1445 1733 888 1200 Equity (` cr) 34 10 15 7 18 1 120 40 198 879 172 260 394 527 197 450 Debt (` cr) 70 22 22 11 45 72.7 1181 206 1272 1521 258 390 924 900 475 750 Grant (` cr) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 (504) 0 (27) 186 127 306 216 0 Traffic inc (%) 7 8 7 7 7 7 18# 7 7 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 Toll inc (%) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 Int Rate (%) - - - - - - 10.5 10.5 10.8 10.8 11.5 10.5 10.5 10.5 10.5 10.8 Source: Company, Angel Research, Note: # Every 3 years Exhibit 10: Angel EPS forecast v/s consensus Angel Forecast Bloomberg consensus Variation (%) FY2011E 13.0 14.4 10.7 FY2012E 15.7 16.6 5.3 Source: Company, Angel Research Investment Arguments Vast opportunity in the road sector IRB the prime beneficiary: IRB has some of the very high-density, strategically aligned road stretched in its gamut. These high-density stretches reduce the average payback period for a typical road BOT project. The Government of India is aggressively focusing on road development and expects to award road BOT projects worth `1lakh cr in FY2011, after a dismal award activity in FY2009. About 34% of this proposed investment is expected to come through to the private sector, and we believe that IRB stands to benefit from the same. Integrated road play: IRB has an integrated business model wherein the internal construction arm, MRMPL, undertakes EPC work relating to secured road BOT projects. While the time-bound construction work of secured road BOT projects lends revenue visibility for the construction arm, any prior completion of construction work ushers in revenue upsides from the road BOT (toll) segment. We believe that owing to this integrated business model the company is straddled across the complete value chain in road development.
  • 7. IRB Infrastructure | 2QFY2011 Result Update October 28, 2010 7 Exhibit 11: Recommendation Summary Company CMP TP Rating Top-line (` cr) EPS (`) *Adj. P/E (x) OB/ FY10 FY11E FY12E CAGR (%) FY10 FY11E FY12E CAGR (%) FY10 FY11E FY12E Sale( x) CCCL 81 - Neutral 1,976 2,397 2,891 21.0 5.0 5.0 6.7 16.2 16.4 16.3 12.1 2.1 Gammon India 196 - Neutral 4,489 5,575 6,607 21.3 8.4 10.0 12.1 20.0 10.9 9.2 7.6 2.9 HCC 62 - Neutral 3,629 4,146 4,900 16.2 1.3 1.6 1.9 19.0 18.1 15.4 12.8 5.2 IRB Infra 266 - Neutral 1,705 2,675 3,672 46.8 11.6 13.0 15.7 16.4 9.0 8.0 6.7 - IVRCL 151 216 Buy 5,492 6,493 8,071 21.2 7.8 8.8 10.9 18.2 11.2 10.0 8.0 3.9 JP Assoc. 122 160 Buy 10,355 13,412 17,952 31.7 4.7 4.5 7.6 27.8 26.3 27.2 16.1 - Punj Lloyd 123 156 Buy 10,448 9,756 12,402 9.0 (10.9) 5.6 11.2 - - 22.0 11.0 2.4 NCC 150 201 Buy 4,778 5,738 6,588 17.4 7.8 8.6 9.8 12.1 14.2 12.9 11.3 3.4 Sadbhav 1,438 1,702 Buy 1,257 1,621 1,986 25.7 43.0 77.4 89.8 44.4 13.9 7.7 6.7 5.3 Simplex In. 489 573 Buy 4,564 5,460 6,543 19.7 25.6 33.0 40.9 26.4 19.1 14.8 12.0 2.5 Patel Engg 370 565 Buy 3,191 3,693 4,297 16.0 28.4 30.8 32.7 7.3 9.2 8.5 8.0 2.5 Madhucon 145 173 Buy 1,388 1,737 2,164 24.9 6.2 7.3 9.1 21.6 11.0 9.3 7.4 2.9 L&T 2,003 - Neutral 37,035 44,047 55,519 22.4 47.4 54.9 68.7 20.4 32.1 27.7 22.2 2.8 ITNL 311 358 Accu. 2,403 3,480 6,071 59.0 17.7 21.8 25.9 20.8 17.5 14.2 12.0 6.7 Source: Company, Angel Research Exhibit 12: SOTP break up Company Core Const. Real Estate Road BOT Invst. In Subsidiaries Others Total ` % to TP ` % to TP ` % to TP ` % to TP ` % to TP ` CCCL 80 100 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 80 Gammon India 121 54 0 0 0 0 0 0 104 46 225 HCC 26 41 29 46 8 13 0 0 0 0 63 IRB Infra 118 43 0 0 150 55 5 2 0 0 273 IVRCL 162 75 0 0 0 0 54 25 0 0 216 JP Assoc. 69 43 42 27 0 0 0 0 48 30 160 Punj Lloyd 156 100 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 156 NCC 138 69 7 3 32 16 0 0 24 12 201 Sadbhav 862 51 0 0 840 49 0 0 0 0 1702 Simplex In. 573 100 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 573 Patel Engg 458 81 56 10 16 3 0 0 36 6 565 Madhucon 91 53 4 2 52 30 0 0 25 15 173 L&T 1542 76 0 0 0 0 482 24 0 0 2024 ITNL 159 44 0 0 151 42 0 0 48 13 358 Source: Company, Angel Research
  • 8. IRB Infrastructure | 2QFY2011 Result Update October 28, 2010 8 Profit & loss statement (Consolidated) Y/E March (` cr) FY2008 FY2009 FY2010 FY2011E FY2012E Gross sales 732.7 991.9 1,704.9 2,675.2 3,671.8 Less: Excise duty - - - - - Net Sales 732.7 991.9 1,704.9 2,675.2 3,671.8 Other operating income - - - - - Total operating income 732.7 991.9 1,704.9 2,675.2 3,671.8 % chg 139.7 35.4 71.9 56.9 37.3 Total Expenditure 320.8 554.5 905.8 1,546.2 2,184.7 Net Raw Materials 158.9 305.4 450.2 807.9 1,156.6 Other Mfg costs 39.2 57.0 65.4 159.2 227.7 Personnel 95.3 134.5 283.8 429.4 598.5 Other 27.4 57.6 106.4 149.8 201.9 EBITDA 411.9 437.4 799.0 1,128.9 1,487.1 % chg 148.9 6.2 82.7 41.3 31.7 (% of Net Sales) 56.2 44.1 46.9 42.2 40.5 Depreciation& Amortisation 101.6 114.4 181.9 216.6 365.8 EBIT 310.3 323.0 617.1 912.4 1,121.3 % chg 174.8 4.1 91.0 47.8 22.9 (% of Net Sales) 42.3 32.6 36.2 34.1 30.5 Interest & other Charges 195.8 137.7 249.4 355.7 445.3 Other Income 52.0 29.6 49.0 23.6 43.4 (% of PBT) 31.2 13.8 11.7 4.1 6.0 Share in profit of Associates - - - - - Recurring PBT 166.5 214.9 416.7 580.3 719.4 % chg 273.4 29.1 93.8 39.3 24.0 Extraordinary Expense/(Inc.) - - - - - PBT (reported) 166.5 214.9 416.7 580.3 719.4 Tax 40.0 37.8 13.3 127.7 172.7 (% of PBT) 24.0 17.6 3.2 22.0 24.0 PAT (reported) 126.5 177.2 403.4 452.6 546.7 Add: Share of earnings of associate - - - - - Less: Minority interest (MI) 12.6 1.3 17.9 20.1 24.3 Prior period items - - - - - PAT after MI (reported) 113.9 175.8 385.4 432.5 522.4 ADJ. PAT 113.9 175.8 385.4 432.5 522.4 % chg 403.9 54.4 119.2 12.2 20.8 (% of Net Sales) 15.5 17.7 22.6 16.2 14.2 Basic EPS (`) 4.2 5.3 11.6 13.0 15.7 Fully Diluted EPS (`) 4.2 5.3 11.6 13.0 15.7 % chg 357.3 26.6 119.2 12.2 20.8
  • 9. IRB Infrastructure | 2QFY2011 Result Update October 28, 2010 9 Balance sheet (Consolidated) Y/E March (` cr) FY2008 FY2009 FY2010 FY2011E FY2012E SOURCES OF FUNDS Equity Share Capital 332.4 332.4 332.4 332.4 332.4 Preference Capital - - - - - Reserves& Surplus 1,288 1,398 1,708 2,064 2,507 Shareholder’s Funds 1,621 1,730 2,040 2,397 2,840 Minority Interest 28 60 78 78 78 Total Loans 2,021 2,486 2,915 4,569 5,966 Deferred Tax Liability 3 18 27 27 27 Total Liabilities 3,673 4,294 5,060 7,071 8,910 APPLICATION OF FUNDS Gross Block 2,219 2,460 4,019 5,628 8,658 Less: Acc. Depreciation 334 444 551 768 1,133 Net Block 1,885 2,016 3,467 4,860 7,524 Capital Work-in-Progress 889 1,455 880 1,201 125 Goodwill - - - - - Investments 198 111 45 45 45 Current Assets 959 1,033 1,148 1,710 2,298 Cash 522 415 510 403 414 Loans & Advances 375 399 438 629 900 Other 62 218 199 678 984 Current liabilities 260 321 482 746 1,083 Net Current Assets 699 712 666 964 1,215 Misc. Exp. not written off 2 1 1 1 1 Total Assets 3,673 4,294 5,060 7,071 8,910
  • 10. IRB Infrastructure | 2QFY2011 Result Update October 28, 2010 10 Cash flow statement (Consolidated) Y/E March (` cr) FY2008 FY2009 FY2010 FY2011E FY2012E Profit before tax 166.5 214.9 416.7 560.1 695.1 Depreciation 101.6 114.4 181.9 216.6 365.8 Change in Working Capital 41.9 120.0 (141.0) 404.6 240.0 Less: Other income 52.0 29.6 49.0 23.6 43.4 Direct taxes paid 40.0 37.8 13.3 127.7 172.7 Cash Flow from Operations 134.2 141.9 677.3 220.9 604.8 (Inc.)/ Dec. in Fixed Assets (433.1) (806.9) (984.1) (1,929.7) (1,954.4) (Inc.)/ Dec. in Investments (156.8) 87.3 65.8 - - Other income 52.0 29.6 49.0 23.6 43.4 Cash Flow from Investing (537.9) (690.1) (869.4) (1,906.1) (1,911.0) Issue of Equity 1,089.9 (1.3) - - - Inc./(Dec.) in loans (496.7) 464.6 429.4 1,654.0 1,396.3 Dividend Paid (Incl. Tax) 3.0 65.2 75.6 75.6 79.4 Others 63.2 42.6 (66.2) - - Cash Flow from Financing 653.5 440.7 287.6 1,578.4 1,317.0 Inc./(Dec.) in Cash 249.9 (107.4) 95.5 (106.8) 10.8 Opening Cash balances 272.3 522.1 414.7 510.2 403.4 Closing Cash balances 522.1 414.7 510.2 403.4 414.1
  • 11. IRB Infrastructure | 2QFY2011 Result Update October 28, 2010 11 Key Ratios Y/E March FY2008 FY2009 FY2010 FY2011E FY2012E Valuation Ratio (x) P/E (on FDEPS) 77.6 50.3 22.9 20.4 16.9 P/CEPS 41.0 30.5 15.6 13.6 10.0 P/BV 5.5 5.1 4.3 3.7 3.1 Dividend yield (%) 0.0 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 EV/Sales 14.1 11.0 6.6 4.9 3.9 EV/EBITDA 25.1 24.9 14.1 11.5 9.7 EV / Total Assets 2.8 2.5 2.2 1.8 1.6 Per Share Data (`) EPS (Basic) 3.4 5.3 11.6 13.0 15.7 EPS (fully diluted) 3.4 5.3 11.6 13.0 15.7 Cash EPS 6.5 8.7 17.1 19.5 26.7 DPS 0.0 1.5 1.2 1.7 1.7 Book Value 48.8 52.1 61.4 72.1 85.4 DuPont Analysis EBIT margin 42.3 32.6 36.2 34.1 30.5 Tax retention ratio 76.0 82.4 96.8 78.0 76.0 Asset turnover (x) 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 ROIC (Post-tax) 8.1 7.6 14.2 12.7 11.2 Cost of Debt (Post Tax) 6.6 5.0 8.9 7.4 6.4 Leverage (x) 3.3 1.1 1.2 1.5 1.8 Operating ROE 13.4 10.3 20.4 20.4 20.1 Returns (%) ROCE (Pre-tax) 9.3 8.1 13.2 15.0 14.0 Angel ROIC (Pre-tax) 14.3 13.8 20.3 20.0 16.2 ROE 11.4 10.5 20.4 19.5 20.0 Turnover ratios (x) Asset Turnover (Gross Block) 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.5 Inventory / Sales (days) 15 47 40 56 79 Receivables (days) 39 5 5 4 4 Payables (days) 118 77 58 57 68 Working capital cycle (ex-cash) (days) 78 87 48 49 68 Solvency ratios (x) Net debt to equity 0.9 1.2 1.2 1.7 2.0 Net debt to EBITDA 3.6 4.7 3.0 3.7 3.7 Interest Coverage (EBIT / Interest) 1.6 2.3 2.5 2.6 2.5
  • 12. IRB Infrastructure | 2QFY2011 Result Update October 28, 2010 12 Research Team Tel: 022 - 4040 3800 E-mail: research@angeltrade.com Website: www.angeltrade.com DISCLAIMER This document is solely for the personal information of the recipient, and must not be singularly used as the basis of any investment decision. Nothing in this document should be construed as investment or financial advice. Each recipient of this document should make such investigations as they deem necessary to arrive at an independent evaluation of an investment in the securities of the companies referred to in this document (including the merits and risks involved), and should consult their own advisors to determine the merits and risks of such an investment. Angel Broking Limited, its affiliates, directors, its proprietary trading and investment businesses may, from time to time, make investment decisions that are inconsistent with or contradictory to the recommendations expressed herein. The views contained in this document are those of the analyst, and the company may or may not subscribe to all the views expressed within. Reports based on technical and derivative analysis center on studying charts of a stock's price movement, outstanding positions and trading volume, as opposed to focusing on a company's fundamentals and, as such, may not match with a report on a company's fundamentals. The information in this document has been printed on the basis of publicly available information, internal data and other reliable sources believed to be true, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete and it should not be relied on as such, as this document is for general guidance only. Angel Broking Limited or any of its affiliates/ group companies shall not be in any way responsible for any loss or damage that may arise to any person from any inadvertent error in the information contained in this report. Angel Broking Limited has not independently verified all the information contained within this document. Accordingly, we cannot testify, nor make any representation or warranty, express or implied, to the accuracy, contents or data contained within this document. While Angel Broking Limited endeavours to update on a reasonable basis the information discussed in this material, there may be regulatory, compliance, or other reasons that prevent us from doing so. This document is being supplied to you solely for your information, and its contents, information or data may not be reproduced, redistributed or passed on, directly or indirectly. Angel Broking Limited and its affiliates may seek to provide or have engaged in providing corporate finance, investment banking or other advisory services in a merger or specific transaction to the companies referred to in this report, as on the date of this report or in the past. Neither Angel Broking Limited, nor its directors, employees or affiliates shall be liable for any loss or damage that may arise from or in connection with the use of this information. Note: Please refer to the important `Stock Holding Disclosure' report on the Angel website (Research Section). Also, please refer to the latest update on respective stocks for the disclosure status in respect of those stocks. Angel Broking Limited and its affiliates may have investment positions in the stocks recommended in this report. Disclosure of Interest Statement IRB Infra 1. Analyst ownership of the stock No 2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock No 3. Angel and its Group companies' Directors ownership of the stock No 4. Broking relationship with company covered No Note: We have not considered any Exposure below Rs 1 lakh for Angel, its Group companies and Directors. Ratings (Returns) : Buy (> 15%) Accumulate (5% to 15%) Neutral (-5 to 5%) Reduce (-5% to 15%) Sell (< -15%)