1. Market Outlook
India Research
October 7, 2010
Dealerโs Diary Domestic Indices Chg (%) (Pts) (Close)
Markets opened on an upbeat note as the benchmark indices witnessed a gap
BSE Sensex 0.7% 135.4 20,543
up opening on the back of strong surge in overnight US markets and positive
Nifty 0.7% 40.6 6,186
Asian markets. However, the markets failed to sustain the early momentum and
MID CAP 1.1% 91.6 8,427
pared some of the opening gains as the day progressed. Indices continued to
SMALL CAP 0.8% 79.6 10,636
trade in the positive territory in early afternoon trade as strong buying activity
was seen among realty, metals, and PSU stocks. Further, the indices rallied BSE HC 0.1% 7.3 6,233
upwards, led by the positive opening of European indices. Finally, markets BSE PSU 0.8% 89.0 10,639
ended their session with modest gains on the back of broad-based buying BANKEX 0.2% 23.3 14,345
across sectors. The Sensex and Nifty closed up 0.7% each. BSE mid-cap and AUTO 0.4% 42.9 9,934
small-cap indices outperformed the Sensex, up 1.1% and 0.8%, respectively. METAL 2.2% 394.9 17,960
Among the front liners, JP Associates, Sterlite Ind., Hindalco, RIL and Jindal OIL & GAS 1.1% 117.0 10,838
Steel gained 1โ7%, while M&M, Hindustan Unilever, SBI, Cipla and RCOM BSE IT 0.6% 34.0 6,110
were down 0โ1%. Among mid caps, JM Financial, Binani Cement, Shipping Global Indices Chg (%) (Pts) (Close)
Corp., State Bank of Mysore and Indiabulls Real Estate gained 8โ18%, while DB Dow Jones 0.2% 22.9 10,968
Corp., BF Utilities, Torrent Pharma, Pidilite Ind. and Triveni Engineering lost 2โ
NASDAQ -0.8% (19.2) 2,381
4%.
FTSE 0.8% 45.6 5,681
Markets Today Nikkei 1.8% 172.7 9,691
The trend deciding level for the day is 20553/6186 levels. If NIFTY trades
Hang Seng 1.1% 241.3 22,880
above this level during the first half-an-hour of trade then we may witness a
Straits Times 0.9% 27.7 3,190
further rally up to 20660 โ 20776/6224 - 6261 levels. However, if NIFTY
trades below 20553/6186 levels for the first half-an-hour of trade then it may Shanghai Com 1.7% 45.0 2,656
correct up to 20437 โ 20330/6149 - 6111 levels.
Indian ADRs Chg (%) (Pts) (Close)
Indices S2 S1 R1 R2 Infosys -1.0% (0.7) $69.0
SENSEX 20,330 20,437 20,660 20,776 Wipro 0.2% 0.0 $15.7
NIFTY 6,111 6,149 6,224 6,261 Satyam 0.0% 0.0 $3.8
ICICI Bank -0.7% (0.4) $51.4
News Analysis HDFC Bank -1.2% (2.2) $187.6
Oberoi Realty - IPO Note
GCPL planning Rs300crโ315cr investments Advances / Declines BSE NSE
Government plans to allocate Rs15,000cr to TUFS Advances 1,788 887
Elecon bags order worth Rs56cr Declines 1,202 512
RILโs gas reserves in D4 block could be double the size of D6 block Unchanged 126 57
Refer detailed news analysis on the following page.
Net Inflows (October 05, 2010) Volumes (Rs cr)
Rs cr Purch Sales Net MTD YTD BSE 7,423
FII 4,360 3,390 970 9,609 93,969 NSE 20,542
MFs 518 871 (353) (371) (23,721)
FII Derivatives (October 06, 2010)
Open
Rs cr Purch Sales Net
Interest
Index Futures 1,449 1,163 286 15,687
Stock Futures 1,370 2,487 (1,117) 42,772
Gainers / Losers
Gainers Losers
Price chg Price chg
Company Company
(Rs) (%) (Rs) (%)
Shipping Corp 192 14.1 Zee Enter. 296 (2.9)
Indiabulls Real. 199 8.5 Nagarjuna Con. 159 (2.3)
Indian Bank 309 7.0 Jubilant Org. 325 (1.9)
1
Indiabulls Fin 167 6.7 JP Hydro Power 68 (1.8)
JP Associates 138 6.7 RNRL 41 (1.8)
Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report Sebi Registration No: INB 010996539
2. Market Outlook | India Research
Oberoi Realty - IPO note
Oberoi Realty (ORL) is coming out with an IPO for Rs1,000cr-1,028cr through fresh issue
of 3.95cr shares (12.0% of its post-issue paid-up capital) in the price band of Rs253-
260/share. ORL intends to use the IPO proceeds to fund construction of its ongoing and
planned residential and commercial projects, as well as for acquiring land/land
development rights.
Strong brand in the most resilient Mumbai real estate market: ORL has a proven track
record having been involved in the business of real estate development in Mumbai since
1983. The company develops projects, with an emphasis on contemporary architecture,
strong project execution and quality construction. ORL has been able to achieve bookings
of an average 455 units annually since the last five years except in FY2009 when the
market conditions were dismal.
Well-capitalised balance sheet with healthy leasing portfolio: ORL had net cash of Rs331cr
as of June 2010. ORL recorded rental income of Rs83cr from Oberoi Mall and Commerz
in FY2010. We expect ORL to report rental income of Rs177cr in FY2012 with Westin Hotel
and Oberoi International School getting operational.
Outlook and Valuation: We remain bullish on the Mumbai realty market and developers
listed in that space. Most of the developers are trading at a discount to our one-year
forward NAV. However, ORL differentiates itself from its peers on account of having a
strong brand, timely execution of projects and quality infrastructure coupled with well
capitalised balance sheet. Hence, we expect the company to trade at its one-year forward
NAV of Rs295/share. At the higher band of the issue price, the company is trading at 12%
discount to our one-year forward NAV. We recommend Subscribe to the IPO with a
long-term perspective.
GCPL planning Rs300crโ315cr investments
Godrej Consumer (GCPL) is planning to invest Rs300crโ315cr in setting up a soap plant,
a chemical and a cosmetics unit, and go for acquisitions in the hair care and household
insecticide segments. The new soap plant is planned in a coastal area and the cosmetics
plant would come up in the northeast region of the country. The soap plant would cost
around Rs150cr and would be executed by GCPL, whereas the chemical plant would be
executed by Godrej Industries. The cosmetics plant may cost around Rs15cr. Also, the
company is looking for acquisitions as a part of its inorganic growth strategy in the hair
care, household insecticide and personal wash segments in Asia, Africa and South
America. We maintain Neutral on GCPL.
Government plans to allocate Rs15,000cr to TUFS
As per reports, the government is set to allocate Rs15,000cr to Technology Upgradation
Fund Schemes (TUFS). Out of this, Rs7,000cr would be spent to clear the past
commitments of the government and Rs8,000cr would be disbursed to the new
applications under the scheme. It is also reported that the scheme, which is set to expire at
the end of FY2012, may be extended by five more years. This is a positive step to
encourage textile players to upgrade and expand their capacities. We believe this would
translate into higher order inflow for textile machinery players like LMW, boosting its
already-strong order book of Rs3,300cr. The company had an order inflow of nearly
Rs600cr in 1QFY2011, which would be boosted by this move, going ahead. We maintain
an Accumulate rating on the stock with a Target Price of Rs2,819.
October 7, 2010 2
3. Market Outlook | India Research
Elecon bags order worth Rs56cr
Elecon Engineeringโs (EEC) material handling equipment division (MHE) has bagged order
wroth Rs56cr. The total order book at the end of August 2010 stood at Rs1,567cr, while
new order till end of August 2010 stood at Rs782cr (Rs499cr for MHE and Rs283cr for
gears).
Break-up of the latest order
โข Tecpro Systems Ltd.: Rs9.25cr for SAIL
โข Jindal: Rs14.29cr Angul Project -1
โข Korba Project: Rs11.30cr BOP
โข GVK Punj Lloyd Project-Rs21.42cr
We believe an improving economic scenario (indicated by the revival in IIP), continued
government focus on infrastructure spends and pick-up in private capex augur well for
companies providing MHE solutions for the core sectors of the economy. The government's
strong focus on the power sector, through Power for all by 2012, is expected to result in an
expansion of the sectorโs generation capacity, leading to higher opportunities for MHE
players, while the mining and port sectors would throw up combined opportunities worth
around Rs7,000cr.
We believe EEC is well placed to seize the upcoming opportunities in the power sector due
its strong order book of Rs1,582cr at the end of 1QFY2011 (1.5x FY2010 sales), which
renders a high revenue visibility for the company. We estimate the company's adjusted PAT
to register a 22% CAGR over FY2010โ12E, driven by stronger order inflow and a
reduction in interest outflow due to de-leveraging of the balance sheet on account of better
working capital management. We expect the RoCE and RoE to improve from 13% and
22% in FY2010 to 19% and 23% in FY2012E, respectively.
At Rs92, the stock is available at attractive valuations of 8.6x FY2012E earnings and 5.7x
FY2012E EV/EBITDA. We maintain our Buy view on the stock with a Target Price of Rs107.
RILโs gas reserves in D4 block could be double the size of D6 block
RIL may be sitting on yet another gold mineโits D4 block. RIL is the operator of the block
with 85% stake. RIL's partner Niko Resources, which owns 15% in the block located on the
east coast of India, has raised initial estimates of gas reserves in the D4 block.
Edward S Sampson, Chairman and CEO of Canada-based Niko Resources, told investors
in a conference that it feels that reserves at the D4 block are twice the size of the D6 block
and have prospectivity of up to an exceeding potential for 100TCF gas. It would change
India and, with 15% stake, it would markedly change Niko. However, RIL said that the
appraisal process is presently being undertaken and, therefore, will not comment at this
juncture.
It is being said that the drilling in the block is expected to begin only by the last quarter of
this financial year or early next financial year. The gas reserves of 100TCF at the D4 block
are initial estimates and how much gas from D4 can actually be commercially exploited
will only be determined once the drilling begins. Thus, we believe it is too early to ascribe
a value to these estimates in the D4 block. However, it is a positive development as it can
be reserve replacement post gas exhaustion at the D6 block. We maintain a Buy rating on
RIL with a Target Price of Rs1,260.
October 7, 2010 3
4. Market Outlook | India Research
Economic and Political News
Gems and jewellery exports may grow 30โ35% in FY2011: GJEPC
India-EU FTA by year-end: Sharma
NHAI in talks with SBI for Rs10,000cr loan
Corporate News
Shree Renuka Sugars gets 118mn litres ethanol supply orders from OMCs
Eros International lines up Rs700cr capex for the next two years
GAIL places orders for laying Dabhol-city gas pipeline
Surya Roshni to invest Rs50cr for expansion
Source: Economic Times, Business Standard, Business Line, Financial Express, Mint
October 7, 2010 4
5. Market Outlook | India Research
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October 7, 2010 5