demographic analysis)

DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS
Short Course on Environmental Planning
DCERP & HUMEIN Phils. Inc.
Ronaldo O. Rogel, EnP
Adjunct Associate Professor
DCERP, College of Human Ecology
University of the Philippines Los Baños
January 14, 2017
Calapan City, Oriental Mindoro

“For us to plan properly,
we must manage our population…”
Goodluck Jonathan
President of Nigeria 2010-2015

WHAT IS DEMOGRAPHY?
From the Greek language, demography means
description of people.
From the Multi-Lingual demographic dictionary of
the United Nations, demography is defined as:
• scientific study of human population primarily with
respect to size, structure and development.
• concerned with current size and characteristics of
human population, how they were attainted and
how they are changing.

Plans are by nature
oriented toward the
future, estimates of the
composition of a given
population at a future
date will be necessary
Demography or population studies
represents the starting point for planning at all scales

Population is the basis for
determining whether the
level of public services like
schools, health centers,
recreational facilities, power
and water supply, is
adequate/inadequate or
accessible/inaccessible.
POPULATION
refers to the total number of individuals in a territory at a
specified time.

Provides guidelines for
deciding total land
requirements and the basis of
land between various
competing land uses

Population make-up and distribution dictates the
policy for most of the human settlements needs

Demographic analysis
Generates relevant population
data in a specific area
Involves the determination of present trends
governing changes in population statistics as
well as future population shifts in a given area
Can readily be accessed from the
National Census conducted nationwide
at regular five-year intervals
1
2
3

In undertaking demographic analysis, three aspects of the
population must be studied:
Demographic analysis
SIZE
CHARACTERISTICS
DISTRIBUTION

DATA EXISTING
POPULATION
TRENDS IN
POPULATION
FUTURE
POPULATION
Size Current
population
Any symptoms
of change?
Prediction
Characteristics Breakdown of
population
Trend
(increasing,
stable,
decreasing)
Prediction
Distribution Examine
distribution
Alteration in
the distribution
Prediction
Population studiesPOPULATION STUDIES

Fundamental Demographic Methods
Composition Models
Trend Models
Treat the population as a whole
without disaggregation with
respect to age, sex or other
characteristics.
Treat a given population as an
aggregate of the various
groups, and the evolution of the
population results (in part) from
the interaction of these groups
DEMOGRAPHIC MODELS
1

DEMOGRAPHIC MODELS
Mathematical Method
Estimates future population
Economic Method
Projects future population based on
economic conditions
Component or Cohort-Survival
Method
Projects population by demographic
components
Methods of Population Projection2

- - -POPULATION CHANGE- - -
-----------
-----------

FERTILITY
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
refers to the live births that occur within a
population.

Crude Birth Rate (CBR)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
refers to the number of births divided by the midyear
population, usually expressed in terms of thousands.
It is the simplest and most commonly used index of
fertility.

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
CBR = _B_ X 1000
P
Where:
B – No. of Births in a given year
P - Total Mid-year population of same year
Example:
= __297 X 1000
10000
CBR = 29.7 per 1000 population

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Total Mid-year Population (July 1)
Pt = Po (1 + r/100)t
Where:
Po = pop at an earlier period
Pt = unknown pop or to be estimated
1.0 = constant
r = annual population growth rate
t = time interval between Po and Pt

MORTALITY
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
refers to the occurrence of deaths in a
population.

Crude Death Rate (CDR)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
is a rough measure of mortality. It refers to
the number of deaths per 1,000 population.

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
CDR = _D_ X 1000
P
Where:
D – No. of Deaths in a given year
P - Total Mid-year population of same year
Example:
= __70 X 1000
10000
CDR = 7 per 1000 population

Rate of Natural Increase (RNI)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Rate of population increase in a given period
due to births and deaths

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
RNI = (CBR - CDR)
Example:
CBR (Philippines, 1990) = 29.7 per 1000 population
CDR (Philippines, 1990) = 7.0 per 1000 population
RNI = (CBR - CDR)
= (29.7 - 7.0)
= 22.7 or 23

MIGRATION
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Geographic movement of people across a
specified boundary for the purpose of
establishing a new permanent or semi-
permanent residence

Immigration Rate
The number of immigrants arriving at a destination
per 1,000 population at that destination in a given
year.
IR = _Number of immigrants______ x 1,000
Total population at destination
Example:
39,895_ X 1000 = 4.5 per 1,000 residents
8,844,499

Emigration Rate
The number of emigrants departing an area of origin
per 1,000 population at that area of origin in a given
year.
ER = _Number of emigrants__ x 1,000
Total population at origin
Example:
33,884_ X 1000 = 3.8 per 1,000 residents
8,844,499

Net migration Rate
Shows the net difference between the numbers of
persons entering a geographic area (Immigrants) and
those leaving the area (Emigrants) per 1,000
population of a an area in a given year.
ER = Number of immigrants
– Number of emigrants x 1,000
Total population
Example:
39,895 - 33,884_ X 1000 = + 0.7 per 1,000
8,844,499 population through
migration

POPULATION DYNAMICS
The balance among fertility, mortality and
migration determines whether a population
increases, remains stationary, or decreases in
number.
The relation between births and deaths is referred to
as Natural Population Increase (Natural Population
Growth).
When the net effect of migration is added to natural
increase, this referred to as Total Natural Increase
(Total Growth).

Compute for CBR, CDR, and RNI
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Municipality of Pangarap 2015
# of Births: 672
# of Deaths: 245
Mid-year Population : 23,400

Compute for CBR, CDR, and RNI
(Answers)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
CBR= 672/23,400 x 1,000
= 28.72 or 29 per 1,000 population
CDR= 245/23,400 x 1,000
=10.47 or 10 per 1,000 population
RNI=28.72-10.47
= 18.25 or 18

COMPUTING POPULATION
GROWTH RATES
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

ARITHMETIC CHANGE
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Assumes that there are linear increases or
decreases in population

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Example:
Pt = Sept. 1, 1995 = 68,616,536
Po = May 1, 1990 = 60,703,206
t = 5.3370
r = ?
Pt – Po
t (Po)
r =
*k
68,616,536 – 60,703,206
5.3370 (60,703,206) *100r =
r = 2.44 percent
*

GEOMETRIC CHANGE
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Assumes that the population changes at a rate
where the increments or decreases are
compounded over a specified period

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Example:
Pt = Population on Sept. 1, 1995 = 68,616,536
Po = Population on May 1, 1990 = 60,703,206
t = 5.3397
r = ?
k = 100
Pt = Po (1 + r/100)t
antilogr =
Pt
Po_______
t
log
- 1 * k

_____________
5.3397
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
antilogr =
Pt
Po_______
t
- 1 * k
antilogr =
68,616,536
60,703,206
log
- 1 * 100
antilogr =
0.05321716
5.3397
- 1 * 100
r = 1.023213639 - 1 * 100
r = 2.32 percent

EXPONENTIAL CHANGE
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Assumes an instantaneous growth rate

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Example:
Pt = Population on Sept. 1, 1995 = 68,616,536
Po = Population on May 1, 1990 = 60,703,206
t = 5.3397
r = ?
k = 100
Pn = Poert
r =
Pt
Po_______
t
In
* k

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
r =
Pt
Po_______
t
In
* k
r =
68,616,536
60,703,206__________
5.3397
In
* 100
r =
0.122537041__________
5.3397 * 100
r = 2.29 percent

DOUBLING TIME OF VARIOUS
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Refers to the length of time a particular
population would double its size under a given
growth rate

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Example:
Doubling time = __________
Growth Rate (%)
69.3*
Doubling time = _______
2.35
69.3
Doubling time = 29.5 years
*It takes 69.3 years for a 1% Growth Rate to double the population
size

DOUBLING TIME
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Doubling Time of Various Rates of Growth
Rates of Growth (%) Doubling Time (Years)
0.5 138
1 69
2 35
3 23
4 27
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

When will the Municipality of Pangarap reach the
46,800 Population?
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
2015 Population: 23,400
R = 2.16

When will the Municipality of Pangarap reach the
46,800 Population?
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Doubling time = 69.3/2.19
= 31.64 or 32 years
When? : 2013 + 32
= 2045

POPULATION PROJECTIONS
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

POPULATION
PROJECTIONS

There are different
methods of
projecting future
population.
This guide suggests the combined use of
GEOMETRIC and PARTICIPATION RATE.

GEOMETRIC METHOD
antilogr =
Pt
Po______
t
log
- 1 * k
Pt = Po (1 + r/100)t

PARTICIPATION RATE
METHOD (PR)
This method simply uses ratio or
percent share of a particular
segment of population to total
population using actual/latest
census data.
Population per barangay
Dependent population
Labor force population
Population per age group
PR Working Age =
Pop’n 15-64 years old
Total population
EXAMPLE:

City/Municipal Population Projection
Projection required is yearly for the first 5 years and 5 years
thereafter.
Participation Rate (PR) =
Po (base pop’n of City/Municipality)
Po (base pop’n of province)

City/Municipal Population Projection
(Planning Period 2016-2025)
Province
City/ Mun.
Base Pop’n
(Po1)
(2010)
PR2 Projected Population
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2025
Province 215,356 1 2574183 261897 266404 270666 274997 2881283 3085953
City/ Mun. 57,067 0.265 68216* (69403) (70597) (71726) (72874) 76354** 81778**
1use latest census data
2Participation Rate =
Po (City/Mun.)
Po (Province)
3given data obtained from NSO
*projected pop’n of city/mun., 2017 = PR x Projected Pop’n of province 2017
**apply same formula using data corresponding to the projection year 2020 and 2025
(xxxxx) : derived by PR method
xxxxx : computed based on growth rate (r), assumed to be constant between 5-year
interval projection for the province

• Use the Geometric formula to get the Growth Rate
(r) using the two latest census. And use it to
project the whole planning period.
• Growth Rate (r) – 2007 and 2010
• Growth Rate (r) – 2016 to 2025

Practice computing r and projected population
using geometric formula:
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Municipality of Pangarap
2010: 21,030
2015: 23,400
r = ?
2020: ?

r= antilog [0.209/5.3397] – 1x100
r= antilog 0.009
r= 1.020 – 1 x 100
r= 2.02 percent
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
r and projected population using geometric
formula
2020=23,400 (1.0202)5
= 25,861

Yearly Population per
Barangay
City/
Municipality/
Barangay
Base
Pop’n
(Po1)
(2010)
PR2 Projected Population
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2025
Total 57,067 1.00 68,216 69,403 70,597 71,726 72,874 76,354 81,778
Brgy. A 2,879 0.050 3,411 3,470 3,530 3,586 3,644 3,818 4,089
Brgy. B 2,806 0.049 3,343 3,401 3,459 3,515 3,571 3,741 4,007
Brgy. C 3,554 0.044 (3,001) 3,054 3,106 3,156 3,206 3,360 3,598
Etc.
Sample computation:
xxxxx – projected population of the city/municipality previously computed

PR =
Brgy. Pop’n
Pop’n of city/mun.
PR , Brgy. A =
2879
57,067 = 0.05
Projected population Brgy.= PR of Brgy. x Projected Pop’n of city/mun.
Pop’n (Brgy. A):
2015 = 0.05 x 68,216 = 3,411
2016 = 0.05 x 69,403= 3,470
etc.
Yearly Population per
Barangay

Population Projection
by Age-Group
Age-
Group
Pop’n
(Po)
(2010)
PR1
Projected Population
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2025
Total 57,067 1.00 68,216 69,403 70,597 71,726 72,874 76,354 81,778
Under 1 1,666 0.0292 1,992 2,027 2,061 2,094 2,128 2,230 2,388
1-4 6, 196 0.1086 7,408 7,537 7,667 7,789 7,914 8,292 8,881
5-9 7, 384 9,281 9,430 9,880 10,582

> 80
Sample computation using PR:
xxxxx – results of previous computations
Blank – for Practice computation

1. PR (age group: Under 1) = Pop’n (under 1)
Pop’n of city/mun.
2. Projected pop’n of age Under 1 = PR x P(city/mun.)
= 0.0292 x 68,216
= 1992
1,666
57,067
=
= 0.0292
Apply the same formula for all other age-groups to get PR for each age-group.
Apply the same formula to project the rest of the population per age-group.
Population Projection
by Age-Group

PR = Pop’n in the labor force (or economically active pop’n)
Pop’n 15 years and over
Projected Labor Force

Pop’n
(Po)
(2010)
PR
Projected Population
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2025
Household
pop’n 15
yrs & over
34,601 1.00 41,359 42,079 42,803 43,487 44,184 46,293 49,582
In the labor
force
33,563 0.970 40,118 40,816 41,519 42,182 42,858 44,904 48,095
Male 16,647 (0.496) 19,899 20,245 20,593 20,476 21,258 22,272 23,855
Female 16,916 (0.504) 20,219
xxxxx – projected population by age-group

Labor Force PR =
33,563
34,601
Projected Labor Force, 2015 = PR x Projected Pop’n 15 yrs & over
= 0.97 x 41,359
= 40,118
0.97=
Male PR in the Labor Force =
11,647
33,563
0.496=

Projected Male Labor Force, 2015 = PR x Projected Labor Force 2008
= 0.496 x 40,118
= 19,898
Projected Female Labor Force, 2015 = 0.504 x 40,118 = 20,219
Repeat procedure to obtain projection for the rest of the planning period.

Population Characteristics
• It refers to the composition of the population in
terms of age, sex, marital status and other
characteristics of the population.

Age Sex Composition
• Sex Ratio is simply the number of males per
100 females in a population.
SR = M * 100
F

Age Dependency Ratio
• The ratio of the population in the dependent ages of
0-14 years and 65 years and over to the population
in the working ages 15-64 years.
• Child Dependency Ratio = P 0-14
P 15-64 * 100
• Old-Age Dependency Ratio = P 65 over
P 15-64 *100
• Age Dependency Ratio = P 0-14 + P 65 over
P 15-64 *100

• What is the
Young Dependency
Ratio,
Old Age
Dependency Ratio
and
Age Dependency
Ratio?
YEAR 2015
All Male Female

Dependency Ratios
Young Dependency Ratio (below 15
years old) = 6,902/12,223 x100
= 56 per 100 working age group
Old Age Dependency Ratio (65 years old
and above)
=1,344/12,223x100
= 11per 100 working age group

Dependency Ratios
Age Dependency Ratio (below 15 years + 65
years old and above) = 6,902 +1,344
12,223
= 67 per 100 working age group

Labor Force
• Labor Force refers to the population 15 years old
and over who contribute to the production of goods
and services in the country.
• Labor Force Participation Rate - proportion of the
total number of persons in the labor force to the total
population 15 years old and over.

Unemployed (new definition)
- includes all persons who are 15 years old and over as of their
last birthday and are reported as:
i. without work, i.e., had no job or business during the basic
survey reference period; and
ii. currently available for work, i.e., were available and willing
to take up work in paid employment or self employment
during the basic survey reference period, and/or would be
available and willing to take up work in paid employment or
self employment within two weeks after the interview date;
and,

Unemployed (new definition)
- includes all persons who are 15 years old and over as of their
last birthday and are reported as:
iii. seeking work, i.e., had taken specific steps to look for a job
or establish a business during the basic survey reference period;
OR not seeking work due to the following reasons: (a)
tired/believe no work available, i.e, the discouraged workers who
looked for work within the last six months prior to the interview
date; (b) awaiting results of previous job applications; (c)
temporary illness/disability; (d) bad weather; and (e) waiting for
rehire/job recall.

• Employment Rate
- the proportion of total number of
employed persons to the total number of
persons in the labor force

Basic Terms
• Single - A person who has never
been married;
• Married - A couple living together
as husband and wife, legally or
consensually;
• Divorced - A person whose bond
of matrimony has been dissolved
legally and who therefore can
remarry;

• Separated - A person separated
legally or not from his/her
spouse because of marital
discord or misunderstanding;
and
• Widowed - A person whose
bond of matrimony has been
dissolved by death of his/her
spouse.
Basic Terms

Singulate Mean Age at Marriage
(SMAM)
The singulate mean age at marriage (SMAM) is the
average length of single life expressed in years among
those who marry before age 50.
A measure of nuptiality derived from a set of percent
singles at all ages.
It denotes the number of years that a
married individual spends in singlehood
before ultimately marrying.

Steps to calculate SMAM
The data requirements to calculate SMAM are:
(a) the given area’s population and
(b) the never married population aged
15-54 by age and sex.
The steps are: …

1. Derive the percent single or never married by age group 15-
19 to 50-54;
2. Sum up the percent single from age group15-19 to age group
50-54 and multiply the sum by 5;
3. Add 1,500.
4. Average the percentages for age groups 45-49 and 50-54;
5. Multiply the result of (4) by 50;
6. Subtract the result of (5) from (3);
7. Subtract the result of (4) from 100; and
8. Divide the result of (6) by the result of (7)
Steps to calculate SMAM

SMAM: Sample Database
Table 7. SINGULATE MEAN AGE AT MARRIAGE, BATANGAS CITY, 2010
Age
Pop’n
Male
Pop’n
Single
Pop’n
Percent
(%)
Female
Pop’n
Single
Pop’n
Percent (%)
All Ages
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
68,254
10,153
9,036
7,509
6,654
5,629
4,713
3,405
2,791
34, 585
9,929
7,273
3,437
1,362
540
327
175
147
97.80
80.49
45.77
20.47
9.59
6.94
5.14
5.27
69,894
10,075
9,136
7,610
6,558
5,534
4,676
3,497
3,031
32,526
9,354
5,786
2,452
1,083
614
495
383
338
92.84
63.33
32.22
16.51
11.10
10.59
10.95
11.15

SMAM: Computation
MALE FEMALE
1) 271.47 1) 248.69
2) 271.47 x 5=1,357.35 2) 248.69 x 5 = 1,243.45
3) 1,357.35 + 1,500 = 2,857.35 3) 1,243.45 + 1,500 = 2,743.45
4) 5.14 + 5.27 = 10.41 ÷ 2 = 5.205 4) 10.95 + 11.15 = 22.1 ÷ 2 = 11.05
5) 5.205 x 50 = 260.25 5) 11.05 x 50 = 552.5
6) 2,857.35 – 260.25 = 2,597.1 6) 2,743.45 – 552.5 = 2,190.95
7) 100 – 5.205 = 94.795 7) 100 – 11.05 = 88.95
8) 2,597.1 ÷ 94.795 = 27.39 or 27 8) 2,190.95 ÷ 88.95 = 24.6 or 25

POPULATION PYRAMID

Three General Types
of Population Pyramids
1. Expansive
2. Constrictive
3. Stationary

The expansive pyramid has a broad base that indicates
high fertility.

The constrictive pyramid has a base that is narrower than
the middle of the pyramid. It indicates moderate population
growth.

The stationary type of pyramid has a base which is
approximately equal to each subsequent age group, tapering at
older ages. It indicates a moderate proportion of the children,
a relatively large proportion of persons in the old ages and a low
population growth.

Rapid Growth
Indicated by a pyramid with a large percentage of people in the
younger ages.

Slow Growth
Reflected by a pyramid with a smaller proportion of the
population in the younger ages.

Zero or Declining Growth
Populations are shown by roughly equal numbers of people in
all age ranges, tapering off gradually at the older ages.

Measures of Urbanization
• Gross Population Density is expressed as the
number of persons per unit of land area, usually in
hectares or square kilometers.

• Net Population Density is the ratio of population to
the total area of arable land. An arable land, for
convenience, is defined as the total land area of
lands classified as “alienable and disposable

Urban Population Density

Level of Urbanization in percent

Tempo of urbanization in
percentage points

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
SOCIAL SECTOR USE
OF POPULATION DATA

Education

Interpolation Technique
-  also used in reclassifying the NSO population groupings into
the desired school-going age population group
School-going age population:
 
 
 
 
Primary – 7 to 12 years old
Junior HS – 13 to 16 years old
Senior HS – 17 to 18 years old
Tertiary – 19 to 22 years old
Measurement of School-Going Age
Population (6-21 years old)

AgeGroup Number
Under1 11,285
1-4 40,303
5-9 41,109
10-14 33,317
15-19 28,481
20-24 23,376
25-29 18,808
30-34 15,584
Total 212,263
Ages 5-9 = 4/5 x Population age group 5-9
= 4/5 x 41,109 = 32,887
Ages 10-14 = 1/5 x Population age group 10-14
= 1/5 x 33,317 = 6,663
Total Primary School-Going Age Population
= 32,887 + 6,663 = 39,550
Illustration:
a. Compute for the primary school going age (6-10) population

SPRAGUE MULTIPLIER AGE GROUP POPULATION

Compute for the Junior HS
(13-16 years old) school-
going age population using
the:
a. Interpolation Technique
b. Sprague multiplier
YEAR 2015
All Male Female

Measurement of School Going-Age Population
and Present Enrollment
School Going Age Population of Relevant Age Level
EPR =
No. of Enrollees by Level
1. Calculation of Current Enrollment Participation Ratio (EPR)

Illustration:
Given:
School going-age population in the primary level (6-10) = 10,000
No. of enrollees in the primary level = 1,500
EPR = 9,500 x 100
10,000
= 95.00%
For every 100 children aged 6-10 years, 95 are enrolled and 5
do not go to school.

Measurement of School Going-Age Population
and Present Enrollment

Measurement of Literacy Rate
Population (10 years old and over)
Population who have completed a year in elementary
LR =

Measurement of Adequacy of Teacher/
Classroom Facilities
No. of Enrollees
No. of Primary School TeachersSTR =
Illustration: 53: 1 = 12,149
231
1. Calculation of Student-Teacher Ratio (STR)
There is one teacher available for every 53 students
(STD = 1:50)

2. Calculation of Student-Classroom Ratio (SCR)
No. of Enrollees
No. of Classrooms
SCR =
Illustration: 38:1 = 12,149
268
Measurement of Adequacy of Teacher/
Classroom Facilities
One room for every 38 students (STD=1:50)

Housing

Computation of Housing Need

Housing Need
Projected Housing need = New Household + Service
Backlog
New Housing need = New population / Average HH size
Backlog:
1. Doubled – Up (DUHH) = No. of Households (HH) – No. of Housing Units (HU)
2. Unacceptable Housing Units = 5% of HU made of mixed materials
3. Mixed Materials = HU with walls and roof made of wood, cogon/Nipa/
Anahaw, asbestos and others (NSO data on Occupied HU by construction
materials)
4. Makeshift / Salvage / Improvised HU (per NSO data)
5. Others

Social Welfare

Tool 1:
Inventory and Assessment of Social Welfare Facilities
1. Day Care Center
2. Senior Citizen Care Center
3. Day Center for Street Children
4. Temporary Shelter for Women
5. Reception and Study Center
6. Family Life Resource Center
7. Early Childhood Development Resource Center

Tool 2:
Clientele Projection of Social Welfare
Projected Population (below poverty line) = 16,000
Current Clientele (DSWD Survey) = 2,000
Current Population (below poverty line) = 15,000
Projected Clientele = Projected x Current Clientele
Population (Current Population)
= 16,000 x 2,000/15,000
= 2,133

Protective Services

Tool 1:
Inventory and Assessment Related to
Peace and Order Condition
1. Police/Firemen
2. Type of Barangay Brigades (disaster, tanod, and traffic auxilliary)
3. Police and Fire Facilities
4. Number and Location of Police/Fire Station and Jails
5. Fire Incidence

Tool 2:
Determination of Police Force
Size of Police Force
Total Population
Policeman to Population Ratio = 40/60,000
= 1:1,500
Each Policeman in the locality serves at least 1,500 inhabitants
Ideal: 1 policeman:500 persons
Minimum Standard PPR = 1:1,000
Police Force =

Tool 3:
Determination of Fireman-Population Ratio
Fireman-
Population = No. of Fireman
Ratio Total Population
Fire Population Ration = 6/60,000
= 1:10,000
One fireman serving 10,000 people
City/Large Municipalities – 1 Fireman: 2,000 people
PNP standard – 1:500

a. Population Demand = Population X Standard Ratio
for Policemen
PDP = 60,000 X 1/500 = 120 policemen
b. Current Police = Total Population Demand -
Force Requirement Actual No. of Police Force
CPF = 120 – 20 = 100 policemen
1. Population Demand for Policemen
Tool 4:
Determining Future Requirement

b. Current Firemen
Requirement
= Total Population Demand -
Actual No. of Firemen
= 120 – 20 = 100 firemen
a. Population Demand = Population X Standard Ratio
for Fireman
PDP = 60,000 X 1/500
= 120 firemen
2. Population Demand for Firemen
Tool 4:

PPF = Projected Population Standard Number of Police
Force to Population Ratio
3. Projection of Police Force Requirement
X
Tool 4:

128
THANK YOU!

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