This document describes 7 common methods for estimating and projecting population sizes: (1) inflow-outflow, (2) natural increase, (3) rate of natural increase, (4) arithmetic, (5) relative increase, (6) geometric, and (7) exponential. These methods use variables like birth rates, death rates, and growth rates to calculate future population estimates. The document also provides examples of applying these methods and notes that the world population doubled around every 25 years between 1750 and 1975.
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Private sector has taken a much larger role in development interventions that ever before. This presentation outlines the Monitoring and Evaluation systems used by the International Finance Corporation and the Multilateral Guarantees Agency (MIGA) as well as how the Independent Evaluation Group assesses the effectiveness of these systems. Main messages of this presentation are:
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In this report, I shall shade the light on methods of population studies, apply on an example and compare between results to find which one is most accurate
Presentation on Disaster Management process in NepalAriful Hasan
To know about Disaster Scenario, National action plan on disaster management in Nepal, Organizational Structure for Disaster Management, Major Challenges, Measures to Solve the Problems.
This presentation aims at communicating knowledge about the management of disasters in the best possible way. I have explained all the basic elements of disaster in the simplest form.
Private sector has taken a much larger role in development interventions that ever before. This presentation outlines the Monitoring and Evaluation systems used by the International Finance Corporation and the Multilateral Guarantees Agency (MIGA) as well as how the Independent Evaluation Group assesses the effectiveness of these systems. Main messages of this presentation are:
- Private Sector operations have specific data gathering advantage/disadvantage based on their business model
- M&E systems should adopt to the business practices to be effective and efficient
- M&E can influence learning, quality of work and outcome
In this report, I shall shade the light on methods of population studies, apply on an example and compare between results to find which one is most accurate
The population of a community is known to increase at a rate proport.pdfamitcbd
The population of a community is known to increase at a rate proportional to the number of
people present at time t. The initial population
P0
has doubled in 5 years.
Suppose it is known that the population is 11,000 after 3 years. What was the initial population
P0? (Round your answer to one decimal place.)
P0 = 1
What will be the population in 10 years? (Round your answer to the nearest person.)
2 persons
How fast is the population growing at
t = 10?
(Round your answer to the nearest person.)
3 persons/year
Solution
dP/dt = P(t)
P = ? P(t) dt
P = e^(kt)
So
P(t) = P0*e^(kt)
If P(5) = 2P0:
P(5) = P0*e^(k5)
2P0 = P0*e^(5k)
2 = e^(5k)
ln(2) = 5k
k = ln(2)/5
P(t) = P0*e^(ln(2)t/5)
P(t) = P0*2^(t/5)
2) P(t) = 11,000 when t = 3
P(3) = 11,000
P0*2^(3/5) = 11,000
P0 = 11000/(2^(3/5))
P0 = 7257.29, or rounded to 7257
P(10) = 7257*2^(10/5)
P(10) = 7257*2.
Population Forecasting Methods
Population Forecasting consists of mathematical models which are used to analyse changes in population numbers.
There are several factors affecting changes in population:
Increase due to births
Decrease due to deaths
Increase/Decrease due to migration
Increase due to annexation
All the above data can be obtained from the census population records.
Population forecasting is an integral part of design. It is essential to take into account the population at the end of the design period.
Fundamental to planning (Assumptions and estimates used in determining water, sewage flow have a permanent effect on planning decisions and outcomes)
Premature and excessive investments in works
System failure and hence increasing customer complaints
Environmental impact
Essential to service provider so as to know the spare capacity of the system
Identification of weak links of system, Ability to accept new/unexpected demands
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3. • 1. Inflow outflow method1. Inflow outflow method
Pt = Po + (B - D) + (I – O)Pt = Po + (B - D) + (I – O)
Pt = Population count at a later time (t)Pt = Population count at a later time (t)
Po = Population count at an earlier time (o)Po = Population count at an earlier time (o)
B = Number of birth between time t and oB = Number of birth between time t and o
D = Number of death between time t and oD = Number of death between time t and o
I = Number of immigrant between time t and oI = Number of immigrant between time t and o
O = Number of emigrant between time t and oO = Number of emigrant between time t and o
4. • 2. Natural increase:2. Natural increase:
Difference between numbers of birth and deathDifference between numbers of birth and death
3. Rate of natural increase3. Rate of natural increase
Yearly net relative increase in population size due to excessYearly net relative increase in population size due to excess
of birth over death. This is computed as (CBR – CDR).of birth over death. This is computed as (CBR – CDR).
4. Arithmetic method4. Arithmetic method
Pt = Po + btPt = Po + bt
Pt = Population at time (t)Pt = Population at time (t)
Po = Population at an earlier time (o)Po = Population at an earlier time (o)
b = Absolute increase in population / yearb = Absolute increase in population / year
t = Length of timet = Length of time
5. • 5. Relative increase in population5. Relative increase in population
Relative increase in population =Relative increase in population = [(Pt - Po) / Po][(Pt - Po) / Po] × 100× 100
6. Geometric method6. Geometric method
Pt = Po ( 1 + r )Pt = Po ( 1 + r )tt
Pt = Population at time (t)Pt = Population at time (t)
Po = Population at an earlier timePo = Population at an earlier time
r = constant rate of growthr = constant rate of growth
t = time interval between Po and Ptt = time interval between Po and Pt
7. Exponential method7. Exponential method
Pt = Po ePt = Po ertrt
(e = 2.718)(e = 2.718)
6. • Example1: Population of year Y = 10.4 milExample1: Population of year Y = 10.4 mil
Population growth rate = 2.1% per yearPopulation growth rate = 2.1% per year
Population 10 years later = ?Population 10 years later = ?
Pt = Po ( 1 + r )Pt = Po ( 1 + r )tt
Pt = Po ( 1 + r )Pt = Po ( 1 + r )tt
= 10.4 (1 + 0.021)= 10.4 (1 + 0.021)1010
= 12.8 mil= 12.8 mil
[Alternative:[Alternative: Pt = Po ( 1 + r )Pt = Po ( 1 + r )tt
log Pt = log Po + t log ( 1 + r )log Pt = log Po + t log ( 1 + r )
log Pt = log 10.4 + 10 log (1 + 0.021)log Pt = log 10.4 + 10 log (1 + 0.021)
log Pt = 1.017 + 10 log (1.021)log Pt = 1.017 + 10 log (1.021)
log Pt = 1.017 + 10log Pt = 1.017 + 10 × 0.009026× 0.009026
log Pt = 1.017 +log Pt = 1.017 + 0.090260.09026
Pt = anti-log (1.017 +Pt = anti-log (1.017 + 0.09026)0.09026)
= 12.8 mil ]= 12.8 mil ]
7. • Example2: Population of year Y = 10.4 milExample2: Population of year Y = 10.4 mil
Population growth rate = 2.1% per yearPopulation growth rate = 2.1% per year
Population 10 years later = ?Population 10 years later = ?
Pt = Po ePt = Po ertrt
(e = 2.718)(e = 2.718)
Pt = 10.4 (2.718)Pt = 10.4 (2.718)0.0210.021 × 10× 10
= 12.8 mil= 12.8 mil
8. • Example 3: Population of 1983 = 38 milExample 3: Population of 1983 = 38 mil
Population of 1995 = 44 milPopulation of 1995 = 44 mil
Growth rate (r) = ?Growth rate (r) = ?
Pt = Po ( 1 + r )Pt = Po ( 1 + r )tt
Pt/Po = ( 1 + r )Pt/Po = ( 1 + r )tt
44/38 = ( 1 + r)44/38 = ( 1 + r)1212
1.1579 = ( 1 + r)1.1579 = ( 1 + r)1212
log 1.1579 = 12 log (1 + r)log 1.1579 = 12 log (1 + r)
0.0637 = 12 log (1 +r)0.0637 = 12 log (1 +r)
log (1 +r) = 0.0637/12log (1 +r) = 0.0637/12
log (1 +r) = 0.0053log (1 +r) = 0.0053
(1+ r) = anti-log 0.0053(1+ r) = anti-log 0.0053
1+ r = 1.01231+ r = 1.0123
r = 1.0123 – 1r = 1.0123 – 1
r = 0.0123 (ie 1.23% per year)r = 0.0123 (ie 1.23% per year)
9. • (II) Estimated Population and Doubling Time(II) Estimated Population and Doubling Time
Year ADYear AD Population (bil)Population (bil) No of year to doubleNo of year to double
1 0.25 16501 0.25 1650
1650 0.5 2001650 0.5 200
1850 1.1 801850 1.1 80
1930 2.0 451930 2.0 45
1975 4.0 251975 4.0 25
2010 8.0 ?2010 8.0 ?
Population doubling time (n)Population doubling time (n)
2P2P11 = P= P11 (1 + x)(1 + x)n-1n-1
10. • Example 4:Example 4: What is the pop doubling time if growth rate is 2%?What is the pop doubling time if growth rate is 2%?
2P2P11 = P= P11 (1 + x)(1 + x)n-1n-1
2 = (1 + 0.02)2 = (1 + 0.02)n-1n-1
log2 = (n-1) log (1 + 0.02)log2 = (n-1) log (1 + 0.02)
n-1 = 0.301/0.0086n-1 = 0.301/0.0086
n = 35 + 1n = 35 + 1
= 36 years= 36 years
[Alternative or quick method: 0.693/annual growth rate[Alternative or quick method: 0.693/annual growth rate
0.693/0.02 = 34.65 years]0.693/0.02 = 34.65 years]
11. ReferenceReference
11.Lecture notes on population estimation and projection.Lecture notes on population estimation and projection,,
MMed Sc (P & TM) Course, Institute of Medicine (I), Yangon,MMed Sc (P & TM) Course, Institute of Medicine (I), Yangon,
1993.1993.