The document provides an economic and currency summary for September 15th, 2016, noting that the Indian rupee appreciated against the US dollar, while also highlighting inflation and other economic data from India, the UK, Eurozone, China, and the US that impacted currency movements. Technical analyses are also provided for certain currency pairs like USDINR, JPYINR, EURINR and GBPINR along with important economic indicators and their expected impact on currencies.

1. Currency Highlights
15th
Sep’2016
HighLights:
 India’s Wholesale Price Index (WPI) Inflation rose to 3.74% in Aug
 Euro Zone Industrial Production plunged by 1.1 percent in month of
July
 UK’s Claimant Count Change expanded to 2,400 in the previous
month
 US Import Prices declined by 0.2 percent in the month of August
 Chinese markets shut for two days on the eve of Mid-Autumn Festi-
val
Indian Rupee recovered from its lows and appreciated around 3 paise to end at
66.89 against the US dollar on Wednesday. The currency appreciated on ac-
count of selling of dollars from exporters and banks. Further, upbeat domestic
market sentiments led to upside in the currency.
However, sharp upside in the currency was capped due to unfavourable eco-
nomic data from the country. Indian Rupee moved in the range of 66.81 to
67.03 in Wednesday’s trading session. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) fixed
reference rate for the dollar was seen at 66.96 and Euro stood at 75.21 as on
14th
September, 2016.
India’s Wholesale Price Index (WPI) Inflation rose to 3.74 percent in August as against a rise of 3.55 percent in July.WPI food inflation
dropped to 8.23 percent in August from 11.82 percent a month ago. WPI fuel inflation gained to 1.62 percent in last month with respect to
fall of 1 percent in July. WPI manufacturing inflation jumped to 2.42 percent in August when compared to 1.82 percent in earlier month.
US Dollar Index declined by 0.3 percent in Wednesday’s trading session due to unfavourable economic data from the country. However,
sharp downside in the currency was prevented as a result of rise in risk aversion in global market sentiments which led to increase in de-
mand for the low yielding currency.
US Import Prices declined by 0.2 percent in August as against a rise of 0.1 percent in July.
Euro against dollar grew around 0.3 percent on Wednesday on account of weakness in the dollar index. However, sharp upside in the cur-
rency was prevented due to unfavourable economic data from the region coupled with weak global market sentiments.
Euro Zone Industrial Production plunged by 1.1 percent in July as against a rise of 0.8 percent a month ago.
The Sterling Pound rose around 0.3 percent in Wednesday’s trade as a result of weakness in the dollar. However, weak global market senti-
ments along with unfavourable economic data from the country capped sharp gains in the currency.
UK’s Average Earnings Index fell to 2.3 percent in July as against a rise of 2.5 percent in June. Claimant Count Change expanded to 2,400 in
August with respect to drop of 3,600 in July. Unemployment Rate unchanged at 4.9 percent in the month of July.
The Japanese Yen against dollar appreciated around 0.14 percent in Wednesday’s trading session due to rise in risk aversion in global mar-
ket sentiments which led to increase in demand for the low yielding currency.
SEBI Certified – Research Analyst Equities I Commodities I Currencies I Mutual Funds
Last PrevCl. PriceChng PriceChng%
DollarIndex 95.6 95.55 0.05 0.05
USD/INR(Spot) 66.89 66.92 (0.03) (0.04)
USD/INR(NseSep) 67.04 67.05 (0.01) (0.01)
EUR/INR(Spot) 75.10 75.12 (0.02) (0.03)
EUR/INR(NseSep) 75.29 75.27 0.02 0.03
GBP/INR(Spot) 88.30 88.84 (0.54) (0.61)
GBP/INR(NseSep) 88.56 88.93 (0.37) (0.42)
JPY/INR(NseSep) 65.30 65.75 (0.45) (0.69)
MarketHighlights

2. Technical View:
On daily chart JPYINR pair opened the day at 65.39,
made a high of 65.39, low of 64.93, and closed the day at
65.30, thus it closed the day with loss of 0.69 point.
On daily chart JPYINR has been facing strong resistance
at 66 levels which is unfiled gap and 21 DMA also. Be-
side, pair has given closed below 21 moving average
which is place at 66.01level. & it show that near term
trend is down. On daily chart pair has paying with 50
DMA. Which suggest some consolidation at these levels.
On daily chart momentum indicator RSI reading is at 51
levels which is also strong horizontal support now its
point out for positive breath in the pair.
So for trading perspective, one could use sell on Rise up-
to level of 65.79 with SL of 66.60 for Target of 64.40-
63.85
Pivot levels for the Day
Technical View:
On daily USDINR pair opened the day at 67.19, made a
high of 67.19, low of 66.96, and closed the day at 66.04,
thus it closed the day with a loss of 0.02 point. Pair has
given bearish breakout of head and shoulder.
On daily chart pair has open with gap up and made big
black body candlestick pattern. Which represent bear-
ishness, and other hand pair has been trading below all
medium term, and long term moving average which is
100 and 200.Whereas on weekly chart pair has closed
below 20 & 50WMA. Which suggest short term trend
and medium term is bearish.
A Daily momentum indicator RSI reading is at 64 levels
with positive crossover, besides RSI reading is near to its
trend line and horizontal resistance.
So for trading perspective, one could sell in range 66.90-
67 with SL of 67.30 for target of 66.30-66.10
Currency Highlights
15th
Sep’2016
USDINR JPYINR
SEBI Certified – Research Analyst Equities I Commodities I Currencies I Mutual Funds
S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
USDINR 66.60 66.83 66.94 67.06 67.17 67.29 67.52
JPYINR 64.29 64.75 65.02 65.21 65.48 65.67 66.13

3. Pivot levels for the Day
Currency Highlights
15th
Sep’2016
GBPINR EURINR
Technical View:
On daily gap up opening EURINR pair opened the day at
75.52, made a high of 75.59, low of 75.15, and closed
the day at 75.29, thus it closed the day with a gain of
0.03 point.
On weekly chart pair have formed bullish engulfing
pattern. This pattern failed if price goes below 74.48
Price has have been trading in descending triangle
pattern now price has bounce back at of 74.50 which is
200 DMA as well lower band of descending triangle.
Now price has given closed below 20 & 100DMA.
Many more price is trading above all moving averages
which suggest all time frame trend is negative.
On daily chart momentum oscillator RSI have been trad-
ing at 54 with positive cross over which suggest some
positive breath in the pair.
For now we can expect prices should move to towards
75.60- 75.75.75 levels in the coming trading session.
However price is trading above 74.70
Technical View:
On daily GBPINR pair opened the day at 88.65, made a
high of 88.23, low of 88.03, and closed the day at 88.08,
thus it closed the day with a loss of 0.45 point.
The price has been trading in following channel for-
mation from past weeks and prices have been facing
resistance of its upper band of channel at 89.25 levels.
The prices have been trading above its 20 DMA and 50
DAM with is at 88.12 and 88.74, that is suggest short
term trend is Bullish.
A momentum indicator MADC has given bullish Cross
over with positive note on daily chart, many more direc-
tional indicator given buy signal which suggest bullish
momentum in the prices in coming trading session.
For now we expect prices should move high towards
90.80 with SL 87.50 levels in the coming trading ses-
sions.
SEBI Certified – Research Analyst Equities I Commodities I Currencies I Mutual Funds
S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
GBPINR 87.86 88.22 88.39 88.58 88.75 88.94 89.30
EURINR 74.46 74.90 75.10 75.34 75.54 75.78 76.22

4. Currency Highlights
SEBI Certified – Research Analyst Equities I Commodities I Currencies I Mutual Funds
15th
Sep’2016
Economic Indicators
Date Time Data Prior Expected Impact
15.09.16 2:00 PM Retail Sales m/m 1.4% -0.4% Actual > Forecast = Good
for currency; GBPINR
15.09.16 2:30 PM Final CPI y/y 0.2% 0.2% Actual > Forecast = Good
for currency; EURINR
15.09.16 4:30 PM MPC Official Bank Rate
Votes
0-9-0 0-0-9 More hawkish than expected
= Good for currency;
GBPINR
15.09.16 4:30 PM Official Bank Rate 0.25% 0.25% Actual > Forecast = Good
for currency; GBPINR
15.09.16 4:30 PM Asset Purchase Facility 435B 435B Actual < Forecast = Good
for currency; GBPINR
15.09.16 4:30 PM MPC Asset Purchase Facility
Votes
6-0-3 0-0-9 More hawkish than expected
= Good for currency;
GBPINR
15.09.16 6:00 PM Core Retail Sales m/m -0.3% 0.3% Actual > Forecast = Good
for currency; USDINR
15.09.16 6:00 PM PPI m/m -0.4% 0.1% Actual > Forecast = Good
for currency; USDINR
15.09.16 6:00 PM Philly Fed Manufacturing In-
dex
2.0 1.1 Actual > Forecast = Good
for currency; USDINR
15.09.16 6:00 PM Retail Sales m/m 0.0% -0.1% Actual > Forecast = Good
for currency; USDINR
15.09.16 6:00 PM Unemployment Claims 259K 262K Actual < Forecast = Good
for currency; USDINR
15.09.16 6:00 PM Core PPI m/m -0.3% 0.1% Actual > Forecast = Good
for currency; USDINR
15.09.16 6:00 PM Current Account -125B -120B Actual > Forecast = Good
for currency; USDINR
15.09.16 6:00 PM Empire State Manufacturing
Index
-4.2 -0.9 Actual > Forecast = Good
for currency; USDINR
15.09.16 6:45 PM Capacity Utilization Rate 75.9% 75.8% Actual > Forecast = Good
for currency; USDINR
15.09.16 6:45 PM Industrial Production m/m 0.7% -0.2% Actual > Forecast = Good
for currency; USDINR

5. Currency Highlights
15th
Sep’2016
SEBI Certified – Research Analyst Equities I Commodities I Currencies I Mutual Funds
Vikas Chaudhari
Digitally signed by Vikas Chaudhari
DN: cn=Vikas Chaudhari, o=Choice Equity Broking Pvt Ltd,
ou=Research Department,
email=vikas.chaudhari@choiceindia.com, c=IN
Date: 2016.09.15 08:57:48 +05'30'