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Prepare for the Future by Stress Testing Scenarios
M a y 2 0 2 4
Weighing the Risks by Chief Investment Officer, Rusty Vanneman, CMT, CFA, BFA™ and Sr. Portfolio Manager Nick
Codola, CFA, CAIA
Featuring J.H. Whitney & Co.’s CEO and President John O’Conner and Allen Parker
Trade War Economic Risks
S+P 500
5830
+10%
GDP
4%
+100bps
10-Year Treasury
3.75
-70bps
S+P 500
5500
+4%
GDP
+2.5%
-50bps
10-Year Treasury
4.35
-10bps
S+P 500
3710
-30%
GDP
-1%
-400bps
10-Year Treasury
4.00
-45bps
Enduring
Peace
GOOD
BASELINE
BAD
Orderly
‘New
Normal’
Trade Wars
Globalization
Free Markets reign, no
trade restrictions,
companies prioritize low
prices and US Imports
Deflation
U.S. orderly de-couples from
Antagonist Countries
Markets broadly dictated by
free markets, not tariffs /
Protectionism
Economic Trade Wars
Capital flows and product
flows restrictions.
Companies barred from
operations, inflation rises
Disclosures
Access to the services presented is provided solely as a service to financial advisors. Orion Risk
Intelligence does not make recommendations or determine the suitability of any security or strategy.
Past performance of a security or strategy does not guarantee future results.
Orion Risk Intelligence research and tools are provided for informational purposes only. While the
information is deemed reliable, Orion Risk Intelligence does not guarantee its accuracy, completeness,
or suitability for any purpose, and makes no warranties with respect to the results to be obtained
from its use.
Wealth Management services are offered by Orion Portfolio Solutions, LLC d/b/a Brinker Capital
Investments a registered investment advisor. Orion Portfolio Solutions, LLC is a wholly owned
subsidiary of Orion Advisor Solutions, Inc. (“Orion”)
17605 Wright Street, Omaha, NE 68130
402.895.1600 / info@orion.com
w w w . o r i o n . c o m
Thank You

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OAT_RI_Ep20 WeighingTheRisks_May24_Trade Wars.pptx

  • 1. Prepare for the Future by Stress Testing Scenarios M a y 2 0 2 4 Weighing the Risks by Chief Investment Officer, Rusty Vanneman, CMT, CFA, BFA™ and Sr. Portfolio Manager Nick Codola, CFA, CAIA Featuring J.H. Whitney & Co.’s CEO and President John O’Conner and Allen Parker
  • 2. Trade War Economic Risks S+P 500 5830 +10% GDP 4% +100bps 10-Year Treasury 3.75 -70bps S+P 500 5500 +4% GDP +2.5% -50bps 10-Year Treasury 4.35 -10bps S+P 500 3710 -30% GDP -1% -400bps 10-Year Treasury 4.00 -45bps Enduring Peace GOOD BASELINE BAD Orderly ‘New Normal’ Trade Wars Globalization Free Markets reign, no trade restrictions, companies prioritize low prices and US Imports Deflation U.S. orderly de-couples from Antagonist Countries Markets broadly dictated by free markets, not tariffs / Protectionism Economic Trade Wars Capital flows and product flows restrictions. Companies barred from operations, inflation rises
  • 3. Disclosures Access to the services presented is provided solely as a service to financial advisors. Orion Risk Intelligence does not make recommendations or determine the suitability of any security or strategy. Past performance of a security or strategy does not guarantee future results. Orion Risk Intelligence research and tools are provided for informational purposes only. While the information is deemed reliable, Orion Risk Intelligence does not guarantee its accuracy, completeness, or suitability for any purpose, and makes no warranties with respect to the results to be obtained from its use. Wealth Management services are offered by Orion Portfolio Solutions, LLC d/b/a Brinker Capital Investments a registered investment advisor. Orion Portfolio Solutions, LLC is a wholly owned subsidiary of Orion Advisor Solutions, Inc. (“Orion”)
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