The Indian rupee depreciated by 62 paise against the US dollar due to strong dollar demand from banks and importers as well as outflows of foreign funds from domestic markets. However, the central bank intervened in the currency markets to cushion the sharp decline in the rupee. The document also provides technical analysis on various currency pairs and highlights upcoming economic indicators from major countries.

1. Currency Highlights
15th
Nov’2016
HighLights:
 India’s Industrial Production grew by 0.7 percent in September
 US Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment rose to 91.6-mark in Nov
 Euro Zone Industrial Production plunged by 0.8 percent in Sept
 Japan’s Prelim GDP expanded by 0.5 percent in Q3 of 2016
Indian Rupee came under pressure to plunge to lowest level since
26th Jul’16 and depreciated around 62 paise to end at 67.25 against
the US dollar on Friday. The currency depreciated on account of dollar
demand from banks and importers. Stronger dollar on estimates of
hike in interest rates by the Fed in its Dec’16 meeting, weak domestic
market sentiments along with outflow of foreign funds kept pressure
on the Indian Rupee. Foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) continued their
selling spree and sold shares worth Rs 1,493.27 crore today, provision-
al bourses data showed.
However, sharp downside in the currency was cushioned due to inter-
vention by the central bank in both spot and forward markets. Indian
Rupee moved in the range of 66.9563 to 67.2538 in Friday’s trade.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) fixed reference rate for the dollar was seen at 67.0292 and Euro stood at 73.1155 as on 11th
Nov’16. In cross-currency trades, the rupee took a severe hit against the pound sterling and ended at 84.93 from 82.59 and fell
back against the euro to settle at 73.18 as compared to 72.61 on Thursday. It also retreated against the Japanese yen to finish
at 63.29 from 62.47 per 100 yens earlier.
India’s Industrial Production grew by 0.7 percent in September with respect to drop of 0.7 percent in August.
US Dollar Index rose around 1 percent in Monday’s trading session due to rise in risk aversion in global markets led to increase
in demand for the low yielding currency. Further, optimistic economic data on Friday and estimates of favourable economic
data from the country during the week kept the currency in positive territory.
US Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment surged by 4.4 points to 91.6-mark in November as against a rise of 87.2-level in October.
Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations expanded by 2.7 percent in current month from 2.4 percent in October.
Euro against dollar fell around 0.8 percent on Monday on account of strength in the dollar index. Moreover, weak domestic
market sentiments along with unfavourable economic data from the region kept pressure on the currency. Euro Zone Industri-
al Production plunged by 0.8 percent in September with respect to rise of 1.8 percent a month ago.
The Sterling Pound dropped around 0.7 percent in Monday’s trade due to stronger dollar. Further, weak global market senti-
ments led to negative movement in the currency.
The Japanese Yen against dollar depreciated by more than 1.5 percent in Monday’s trading session due to rise in risk appetite
in global market sentiments in early part of the trade which led to decline in demand for the low yielding currency. However,
favourable data from the country cushioned sharp fall in the currency. Japan’s Prelim Gross Domestic Product (GDP) expanded
by 0.5 percent in Q3 of 2016 as against a rise of 0.2 percent in previous quarter.
SEBI Certified – Research Analyst Equities I Commodities I Currencies I Mutual Funds
Last PrevCl. PriceChng PriceChng%
DollarIndex 98.99 98.85 0.14 0.14
USD/INR(Spot) 67.55 67.22 0.33 0.49
USD/INR(NseNov) 67.42 67.25 0.17 0.25
EUR/INR(Spot) 73.36 72.84 0.52 0.71
EUR/INR(NseNov) 73.34 72.81 0.53 0.72
GBP/INR(Spot) 85.12 84.37 0.75 0.88
GBP/INR(NseNov) 85.15 84.16 0.99 1.16
JPY/INR(NseNov) 63.36 62.61 0.75 1.18
MarketHighlights

2. Technical View:
On daily chart JPYINR prices have been trading in hori-
zontal channel pattern and price has taken support of its
lower band at 63.10 levels.
Moreover, price has taken support of its horizontal
trend line at 63 levels on daily chart.
Furthermore, prices have been trading above its 20 HE-
MA, which suggest short term trend is positive.
On daily chart momentum indicator RSI is trading above
40 levels which suggest further bullishness can be seen
in the prices.
In addition, momentum indicator MACD has shown posi-
tive crossover on hourly chart.
So for trading perspective, one could use buy in the
range of 63.15 with SL of 62.70 for target of 63.70 levels.
Pivot levels for the Day
Technical View:
The pair has given breakout of its falling channel pattern
at 67.10 levels on daily chart. On daily USDINR prices
have shown breakout of its falling trend line at 67.20
levels.
Moreover, prices have been trading above its 50 DEMA
which gives the sign of bullishness in the prices.
A momentum indictor RSI has traded above 60 levels,
which suggest further positive momentum can be seen
in the prices.
In addition, momentum indicator MACD has shown pos-
itive crossover on daily chart.
So for trading perspective, one could buy in range 67.15
with SL of 66.70 for target of 67.70.
Currency Highlights
15th
Nov’2016
USDINR JPYINR
SEBI Certified – Research Analyst Equities I Commodities I Currencies I Mutual Funds
S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
USDINR 66.65 66.98 67.20 67.31 67.53 67.64 67.97
JPYINR 62.17 62.71 63.03 63.25 63.57 63.79 64.33

3. Pivot levels for the Day
Currency Highlights
15th
Nov’2016
GBPINR EURINR
Technical View:
The price have been trading in descending triangle
pattern form past few weeks. The EURINR pair has been
trading in falling channel pattern and prices have been
taking support of its lower band of channel pattern at
73.20 levels on daily chart.
On the other hand price has taken support of its hori-
zontal trend line at 73.80 levels on daily chart.
On daily chart momentum oscillator RSI have been trad-
ing above 45 which suggest bullishness in the prices.
A momentum indicator MACD has shown positive cross-
over on hourly chart, which add more bullishness in the
prices.
For now we can expect prices should move higher to-
wards 74 levels in the coming trading session.
Technical View:
The pair has shown breakout of its horizontal channel
pattern at 84.80 levels on daily chart. Moreover, prices
have been trading above 50 DEMA, which suggest short
term trend looks positive.
The price has formed bullish hammer candle stick
pattern on daily chart, which is bullish pattern.
A momentum indicator MADC has given positive Cross
over on hourly chart, which gives the sign of bullishness
in the prices.
The momentum indictor RSI has been trading above 60
levels on daily chart, which suggest the possibilities of
bounce back in the in the prices.
For now we expect prices should move higher towards
86 levels coming trading sessions.
SEBI Certified – Research Analyst Equities I Commodities I Currencies I Mutual Funds
S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
GBPINR 75.48 79.66 82.41 83.84 86.59 88.02 92.20
EURINR 62.17 62.71 63.03 63.25 63.57 63.79 64.33

4. Currency Highlights
SEBI Certified – Research Analyst Equities I Commodities I Currencies I Mutual Funds
15th
Nov’2016
Economic Indicators
Date Time Data Prior Expected Impact
15.11.16 12:30 PM German Prelim GDP q/q 0.4% 0.3% Actual > Forecast = Good
for currency; EURINR
15.11.16 03:00 PM CPI y/y 1.0% 1.1% Actual > Forecast = Good
for currency; GBPINR
15.11.16 03:30 PM Inflation Report Hearings More hawkish than expected
= Good for currency;
15.11.16 07:00 PM Core Retail Sales m/m 0.5% 0.5% Actual > Forecast = Good
for currency; USDINR
15.11.16 07:00 PM Retail Sales m/m 0.6% 0.6% Actual > Forecast = Good
for currency; USDINR

5. Currency Highlights
15th
Nov’2016
SEBI Certified – Research Analyst Equities I Commodities I Currencies I Mutual Funds
Anish Vyas
Digitally signed by Anish Vyas
DN: cn=Anish Vyas, o=Choice Merchandise Broking
Pvt. Ltd, ou=Sr. Research Associate,
email=anish.vyas@choiceindia.com, c=IN
Date: 2016.11.15 08:57:52 +05'30'