The Indian rupee appreciated for the fifth consecutive day against the US dollar. US core durable goods orders declined more than expected in August. The GfK German consumer climate indicator fell slightly in September and Japan's retail sales plunged in August. Technical analyses indicate the USDINR and EURINR may fall further while the GBPINR could decline with key economic data from Germany, Japan, and the US expected to impact currency movements.

1. Currency Highlights
29th
Sep’2016
HighLights:
 Indian Rupee appreciated for fifth consecutive day on Wednesday
 US Core Durable Goods Orders declined by 0.4 percent in August
 GfK German Consumer Climate dropped to 10-mark in Septembe
 Japan’s Retail Sales plunged by 2.1 percent in the last month
Indian Rupee continued with positive bias for fifth consecutive day
and appreciated marginally by 2 paise to end at 66.46 against the US
dollar on Wednesday. The currency appreciated on account of selling
of dollars from exporters and banks. Further, upbeat domestic market
sentiments along with inflow of foreign funds continued with positive
movement in the currency. The FIIs as per Tuesday’s data were net
sellers in equity segment, while they were net buyers in debt seg-
ment, according to data released by the NSDL. In equity segment, the
gross buying was of Rs 4413.60 crore against gross selling of Rs
4557.21 crore. Thus, FIIs stood as net sellers of Rs 143.61 crore in eq-
uities. In the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 1764.25
crore with gross sales of Rs 636.13 crore.
Indian Rupee moved in the range of 66.43 to 66.49 in Wednesday’s trading session. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) fixed refer-
ence rate for the dollar was seen at 66.44 and Euro stood at 74.45 as on 28th
September, 2016.
US Dollar Index rose marginally in Wednesday’s trading session due to favourable core durable goods orders data against it
estimates. However, sharp upside in the currency was capped as a result of rise in risk appetite in global markets which led to
decline in demand for the low yielding currency.
US Core Durable Goods Orders declined by 0.4 percent in August as against a rise of 1.3 percent in July.
Euro against dollar gained marginally on Wednesday on account of upbeat global market sentiments. However, sharp upside
in the currency was capped due to strength in the dollar index. Further, unfavourable economic data from the region prevent-
ed sharp positive movement in the currency.
GfK German Consumer Climate dropped by 0.2 points to 10-mark in September from 10.2-level in August.
The Sterling Pound declined marginally in Wednesday’s trade as a result of stronger dollar index. However, upbeat global mar-
ket sentiments along with estimates of favourable economic data from the country cushioned sharp negative movement in the
currency.
The Japanese Yen against dollar depreciated around 0.23 percent in Wednesday’s trading session due to rise in risk appetite in
global market sentiments which led to decline in demand for the low yielding currency.
Japan’s Retail Sales plunged by 2.1 percent in August with respect to drop of 0.2 percent a month ago.
SEBI Certified – Research Analyst Equities I Commodities I Currencies I Mutual Funds
Last PrevCl. PriceChng PriceChng%
DollarIndex 95.57 95.44 0.13 0.14
USD/INR(Spot) 66.47 66.45 0.02 0.03
USD/INR(NseAug) 66.45 66.48 (0.03) (0.05)
EUR/INR(Spot) 74.58 74.50 0.08 0.11
EUR/INR(NseAug 74.45 74.74 (0.29) (0.39)
GBP/INR(Spot) 86.51 86.54 (0.03) (0.03)
GBP/INR(NseAug) 86.43 86.22 0.21 0.24
JPY/INR(NseAug) 66.13 66.20 (0.07) (0.11)
MarketHighlights

2. Technical View:
On daily chart JPYINR prices have been trading in sym-
metrical triangle pattern. However, price has faced re-
sistance near 67.10 levels on daily chart.
Moreover, any further movement can been seen in the
prices if JPYINR has given breakout above 67.10 levels o
daily chart.
Furthermore, prices have been trading above its 50 DE-
MA, which suggest medium term trend is positive.
On daily chart momentum indicator RSI reading is at 55
levels which is also strong horizontal support now its
point out for positive breath in the pair.
So for trading perspective, one could use buy above level
of 67.10 with SL of 66.50 for Target of 67.80.
Pivot levels for the Day
Technical View:
On daily USDINR prices have been trading in falling
channel formation from past few weeks. The pair has
formed bearish candle stick with appealing volumes.
On the other hand, prices have been facing resistance of
its upper band of channel pattern at 67.10 levels on dai-
ly.
Moreover, prices have been trading below 21 DEMA
which gives the sign of bearishness in the prices.
A momentum indictor RSI has traded below 40 levels,
which suggest further weakness in the prices.
So for trading perspective, one could sell in range 66.80
with SL of 67.20 for target of 66.
Currency Highlights
29th
Sep’2016
USDINR JPYINR
SEBI Certified – Research Analyst Equities I Commodities I Currencies I Mutual Funds
S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
USDINR 66.34 66.40 66.42 66.46 66.48 66.52 66.58
JPYINR 65.77 65.93 66.03 66.09 66.19 66.25 66.41

3. Pivot levels for the Day
Currency Highlights
29th
Sep’2016
GBPINR EURINR
Technical View:
On daily chart EURINR price have been trading
in descending triangle pattern from past months. On
the other hand, price has taken support near its lower
band of triangle pattern at 74.20 levels on daily chart.
Moreover, prices have been trading above its 21 DE-
MA, which suggest short term trend remains bullish.
On daily chart momentum oscillator RSI have been trad-
ing above 40 which suggest bullishness in the prices.
A momentum indicator MACD has shown positive cross-
over on daily chart, which add more bullishness in the
prices.
For now we can expect prices should move higher to-
wards 75.70 levels in the coming trading session.
Technical View:
On daily GBPINR price has been trading in falling chan-
nel pattern and price has faced resistance near 88 levels
on daily chart.
Moreover, prices have been trading below 21 DEMA,
which suggest short term trend remains weak.
The price has given breakdown of horizontal trend line
at 87.30 levels on daily chart.
A momentum indicator MADC has given negative Cross
over on daily chart, which gives the sign of bearishness
in the prices.
The momentum indictor RSI has been trading below 40
levels on daily chart. Which suggest lack of strength in
the prices.
For now we expect prices should move lower towards
85.60 levels coming trading sessions.
SEBI Certified – Research Analyst Equities I Commodities I Currencies I Mutual Funds
S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
GBPINR 85.95 86.20 86.31 86.45 86.56 86.70 86.95
EURINR 74.15 74.32 74.38 74.49 74.55 74.66 74.83

4. Currency Highlights
SEBI Certified – Research Analyst Equities I Commodities I Currencies I Mutual Funds
29th
Sep’2016
Economic Indicators
Date Time Data Prior Expected Impact
29.09.16 All Day German Prelim CPI m/m 0.0% 0.0% Actual > Forecast = Good
for currency; EURINR
29.09.16 12:05 PM BOJ Gov Kuroda Speaks More hawkish than expected
= Good for currency;
29.09.16 1:25 pm German Unemployment
Change
-7K -5K Actual < Forecast = Good
for currency; EURINR
29.09.16 2:00 pm M4 Money Supply m/m 1.2% 0.8% Actual > Forecast = Good
for currency; GBPINR
29.09.16 6:00 PM Final GDP q/q 1.1% 1.3% Actual > Forecast = Good
for currency; USDINR
29.09.16 6:00 PM German Unemployment
Change
252K 260K Actual < Forecast = Good
for currency; USDINR
29.09.16 6:00 pm Goods Trade Balance -58.8B -62.6B Actual > Forecast = Good
for currency; USDINR
29.09.16 7:30 pm Pending Home Sales m/m 1.3% -0.1% Actual > Forecast = Good
for currency; USDINR

5. Currency Highlights
29th
Sep’2016
SEBI Certified – Research Analyst Equities I Commodities I Currencies I Mutual Funds
Amit Pathania
Digitally signed by Amit Pathania
DN: cn=Amit Pathania, o=Choice Equity Broking Pvt. ltd, ou=Research
Department, email=amit.pathania@choiceindia.com, c=IN
Date: 2016.09.29 08:56:13 +05'30'