#ChoiceBroking #CurrencyHighlights

1. Currency Highlights
15th
Dec’2016
HighLights:
 India’s WPI Inflation plunged to 3.15 percent in the previous month
 US Federal Reserve hikes its interest rates by 25 bps to 0.75 percent
 UK’s Claimant Count Change declined to 7,400 to 2,400 in November
 Euro Zone Industrial Production plunged by 0.1 percent in October
 US Core Retail Sales fell to 0.2 percent in the previous month
Indian Rupee recovered from its low and appreciated around 9 paise to end
at 67.45 in Wednesday’s trading session. The currency appreciated on ac-
count of plunge in retail and wholesale inflation data of the country. Further,
selling of dollars from exporters and bankers led to upside in the currency.
Additionally, investors were cautious ahead of the US Federal Reserve
meeting regarding hike in its interest rates.
However, sharp upside in the currency was prevented as a result of weak
domestic market sentiments. So far this year, foreign institutional investors
have bought $4.28 billion in equities and sold $6.34 billion in debt. Indian
Rupee moved in the range of 67.375 to 67.605 in Wednesday’s trade. The
Reserve Bank of India (RBI) fixed reference rate for the dollar was seen at
67.5604 and Euro stood at 71.9180 as on 14th Dec’16.
For the month of December 2016, FII outflows in equities totalled at Rs.259.29 crores ($36.70 million) as on 14th December 2016. Year to
date basis, net capital inflows stood at Rs.28483.18 crores ($4335.11 million) as on 14th December 2016. India’s Wholesale Price Index
(WPI) Inflation plunged to 3.15 percent in November as against a rise of 3.39 percent in October. WPI food inflation fell to 1.54 percent in
previous month from 4.34 percent in October. WPI fuel inflation gained to 7.07 percent in November with respect to 6.18 percent a month
ago. WPI manufacturing inflation rose to 3.2 percent in November when compared to 2.67 percent in October.
US Dollar Index rose around 0.65 percent in Wednesday’s trading session after US Federal Reserve hiked its interest rates by 25 bps to 0.75
percent in December meeting. Further, rise in risk aversion in global market sentiments led to increase in demand for the low yielding cur-
rency. However, sharp upside in the currency was capped as a result of unfavourable economic data from the country.
US Core Retail Sales fell to 0.2 percent in November as against a rise of 0.6 percent in October. Retail Sales also dropped to 0.1 percent in
previous month from 0.6 percent in October. Producer Price Index (PPI) grew by 0.4 percent in the last month. Core PPI expanded to 0.4
percent in November with respect to decline of 0.2 percent in October. Capacity Utilization Rate plunged to 75 percent in November with
respect to 75.4 percent a month ago. Industrial Production declined by 0.4 percent in November when compared to rise of 0.1 percent in
October. Federal Funds Rate hiked by 25 bps to 0.75 percent in December meeting from 0.5 percent.
Euro against dollar fell around 0.9 percent on Wednesday on account of strength in the dollar index. Further, weak global market senti-
ments coupled with unfavorable economic data from the region kept pressure on the currency. Euro Zone Industrial Production plunged by
0.1 percent in October as against a fall of 0.9 percent in September.
The Sterling Pound dropped around 0.73 percent in Wednesday’s trade as a result of stronger dollar. Moreover, weak global market senti-
ments kept pressure on the currency. However, optimistic economic data from the country restricted sharp fall in the currency. UK’s Aver-
age Earnings Index rose by 2.5 percent in October as against a rise of 2.3 percent a month ago. Claimant Count Change declined to 7,400 to
2,400 in November from 9,800 in October. Unemployment Rate remained unchanged at 4.8 percent in the month of October.
The Japanese Yen against dollar depreciated by more than 1.5 percent in Wednesday’s trading session after US Federal decided to hike its
interest rates by 25 bps to 0.75 percent.
SEBI Certified – Research Analyst Equities I Commodities I Currencies I Mutual Funds
Last PrevCl. PriceChng PriceChng%
DollarIndex 100.94 101.04 (0.10) (0.10)
USD/INR(Spot) 67.49 67.41 0.08 0.12
USD/INR(NseDec) 67.57 67.58 (0.01) (0.01)
EUR/INR(Spot) 71.83 71.63 0.20 0.28
EUR/INR(NseDec) 71.96 71.80 0.16 0.22
GBP/INR(Spot) 85.36 85.34 0.02 0.02
GBP/INR(NseDec) 85.51 85.82 (0.31) (0.36)
JPY/INR(NseDec) 58.82 58.63 0.19 0.32
MarketHighlights

2. Technical View:
On daily chart JPYINR price has shown breakdown of its
falling channel pattern at 61.60 levels. The price has giv-
en breakdown of its horizontal trend line at 61.30 levels
on daily chart.
Moreover, prices have been trading below its 21 DEMA
which gives the sign of bearishness in the prices.
On daily chart momentum indicator RSI is trading below
40 levels which suggest further weakness can be seen in
the prices.
In addition, momentum indicator MACD has shown neg-
ative crossover and trading below signal line on daily
chart.
So for trading perspective, one could JPYINR sell in the
range of 58.95 with SL of 59.30 for target of 58.30 levels.
Pivot levels for the Day
Technical View:
The pair has shown breakout of its rectangle pattern at
67.30 levels on daily chart. On daily chart USDINR price
has retested its upper band of channel pattern at 67.40
levels.
On daily chart price has taken support of its 61.80% Fib-
onacci retracement levels.
Moreover, prices have been trading above its 50 DEMA
which gives the sign of bullishness in the prices.
A momentum indicator RSI has been trading above 40
levels, which suggest further positive momentum can be
seen in the prices.
In addition, momentum indicator MACD has shown
positive crossover on hourly chart.
So for trading perspective, one could buy USDINR in
range 67.40 with SL of 67 for target of 68.10.
Currency Highlights
15th
Dec’2016
USDINR JPYINR
SEBI Certified – Research Analyst Equities I Commodities I Currencies I Mutual Funds
S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
USDINR 67.27 67.42 67.49 67.57 67.64 67.72 67.87
JPYINR 58.14 58.46 58.63 58.78 58.95 59.10 59.42

3. Pivot levels for the Day
Currency Highlights
15th
Dec’2016
GBPINR EURINR
Technical View:
The price has shown breakdown of its falling channel a
pattern at 72 levels on daily chart. The EURINR pair has
shown horizontal trend line at 72.50 levels on daily
chart.
The pair has been trading below its 21 DEMA on daily
chart, which suggest further weakness can be seen in
the prices.
On daily chart momentum oscillator RSI have been trad-
ing below 50which suggest bearishness in the prices.
A momentum indicator MACD has shown negative
crossover on daily chart, which add more bearishness
in the prices.
For now we can expect prices should move lower to-
wards 71.20 levels in the coming trading session.
Technical View:
The pair has been facing resistance of its falling trend
line at 86.10 levels on daily chart. The prices have been
facing resistance of its horizontal line at 86 levels.
Moreover, prices have been trading below 21 DEMA,
which suggest short term trend looks negative.
Moreover, momentum indicator MACD has given nega-
tive cross over on daily chart, which gives the sign of
bearishness in the prices.
The momentum indictor RSI has been trading below 60
levels on daily chart, which suggest the possibilities of
further weakness in the prices.
For now we expect prices should move lower towards
84.60 levels coming trading sessions.
SEBI Certified – Research Analyst Equities I Commodities I Currencies I Mutual Funds
S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
GBPINR 85.10 85.33 85.41 85.56 85.64 85.79 86.02
EURINR 71.29 71.63 71.79 71.97 72.13 72.31 72.65

4. Currency Highlights
SEBI Certified – Research Analyst Equities I Commodities I Currencies I Mutual Funds
15th
Dec’2016
Economic Indicators
Date Time Data Prior Expected Impact
15.12.16 12:30 PM FOMC Economic Projections
15.12.16 12:30 PM FOMC Statement More hawkish than expected
= Good for currency;
USDINR
15.12.16 12:30 PM Federal Funds Rate <.50% <.75% Actual > Forecast = Good
for currency; USDINR
15.12.16 01:00 PM FOMC Press Conference More hawkish than expected
= Good for currency;
USDINR
15.12.16 03:00 PM Retail Sales m/m 1.9% 0.2% Actual > Forecast = Good
for currency; GBPINR
15.12.16 05:30 PM Monetary Policy Summary 0.8% 0.3% More hawkish than expected
= Good for currency;
GBPINR
15.12.16 05:30 PM Official Bank Rate 0.25% 0.25% Actual > Forecast = Good
for currency; GBPINR
15.12.16 07:00 PM CPI m/m 0.4% 0.2% Actual > Forecast = Good
for currency; USDINR
15.12.16 07:00 PM Core CPI m/m 0.1% 0.2% Actual > Forecast = Good
for currency; USDINR
15.12.16 07:00 PM Philly Fed Manufacturing In-
dex
7.6 9.1 Actual > Forecast = Good
for currency; USDINR
15.12.16 07:00 PM Unemployment Claims 258K Actual < Forecast = Good
for currency; USDINR

5. Currency Highlights
15th
Dec’2016
SEBI Certified – Research Analyst Equities I Commodities I Currencies I Mutual Funds
Anish Vyas
Digitally signed by Anish Vyas
DN: cn=Anish Vyas, o=Choice Merchandise
Broking Pvt. Ltd, ou=Sr. Research Associate,
email=anish.vyas@choiceindia.com, c=IN
Date: 2016.12.15 08:30:17 +05'30'