Materials for my 2016 Campus Technology workshop. From the conference description: "How can a campus information services organization best approach and strategize emerging technologies? Mr. Alexander will present futuring methods currently used in academia, non-profits, governments and businesses. You will learn how to use environmental scanning to identify major trends in the present which are likely to shape the medium-term future. Additionally, you will discuss with other attendees how to expand your institution’s capacity for assessing emerging technologies and other drivers that will reshape higher education."

1. Assessing Emerging Technology and FuturesAssessing Emerging Technology and Futures
Capacity for Your OrganizationCapacity for Your Organization
Presented by: Bryan Alexander

2. 1. Introductions
2. Delphi method
3. Environmental scanning
4. Trend analysis
5. Scenarios
6. Implementation in your organization
Plan for the workshopPlan for the workshop

4. 1. Cold War: RAND and Shell
2. Growth of futures/futurology
3. Business, government
Historical sketchHistorical sketch

5. • Assemble experts
• Structured queries
• Reiterated assessments
2. Delphi method

7. 1. Introductions
2. Delphi method
3. Environmental scanning
4. Trend analysis
5. Scenarios
6. Implementation in your organization
Plan for the workshopPlan for the workshop
Horizon ReportsHorizon Reports
Higher EducationHigher Education
K-12 EducationK-12 Education
MuseumsMuseums
LibrariesLibraries
European Union (K-12)European Union (K-12)
Latin America (Higher Ed)Latin America (Higher Ed)
Regional/Sector TechnologyRegional/Sector Technology
OutlooksOutlooks
Australia / New Zealand / BrazilAustralia / New Zealand / Brazil
Ireland / UK / Norway / Singapore / AsiaIreland / UK / Norway / Singapore / Asia
China / Scandinavia / Int’l SchoolsChina / Scandinavia / Int’l Schools
Training / eLearning / STEM / Community CollegesTraining / eLearning / STEM / Community Colleges

8. The NMC Horizon
Project
55 Editions55 Editions
75+75+
TranslationsTranslations
14 Years of Global Research into Emerging Technology Uptake14 Years of Global Research into Emerging Technology Uptake

11. HORIZON.WIKI.NMC.ORGHORIZON.WIKI.NMC.ORG

13. POLICYPOLICY
LEADERSHIPLEADERSHIP
PRACTICEPRACTICE

14. LONG-TERM IMPACT
> Advancing Cultures of Innovation
> Rethinking How Institutions Work
[KEYTRENDS]
MID-TERM IMPACT
> Growing Focus On Measuring Learning
> Increasing Use of Blended Learning Designs
SHORT-TERM IMPACT
> Redesigning Learning Spaces
> Shift to Deeper Learning Approaches

16. [SIGNIFICANTCHALLENGES] SOLVABLE
> Blending Formal + Informal Learning
> Improving Digital Literacy
DIFFICULT
> Competing Models of Education
> Personalizing Learning
WICKED
> Balancing Our Connected +
Unconnected Lives
> Keeping Education Relevant

17. [DEVELOPMENTSINTECH]
NEAR-TERM: 1 YR OR LESS
> Bring Your Own Device (BYOD)
> Learning Analytics + Adaptive Learning
> Augmented + Virtual Reality
> Makerspaces
MID-TERM: 2-3 YRS
FAR-TERM: 4-5 YRS
> Affective Computing
> Robotics

18. 1. Which developments in technology are most likely to have the largest impact on
education over the next five years?
2. What are the most significant challenges facing education and technology?
3. Which significant trends will have the greatest influence on how education and
technology work in the near future?
Horizon prompts exercise

19. • Can you use Horizon and others?
• Can you build your own?
On campus

20. • Present-oriented, seeking seeds of future
• Multiple, diverse sources
• “So what?” Analysis
3. Environmental scanning

21. ACRL
sample
http://tinyurl.com/ACRLscan

22. Social
Technological
Economical
Educational
Political
STEEP framework

23. • What are your sources?
• How do you share what you discover?
• How does reflection shape your planning?
Key questions to start on

24. 1. Identify 2 stories from past 3 months
2. 1 personal, 1 professional
3. Note source
EXERCISE

25. Once you have discerned possible
future-suggestive stories, what do
you do with them?
4. Trend analysis

26. •What do they signal about a possible future?
•What trends do they indicate?
•How do they connect with your thinking?
•How do they intersect?
4. Trend analysis

27. Back to environmental scan.
Break out trends.
EXERCISE

28. 5. Scenarios
https://www.flickr.com/photos/jamais_cascio/3991366442/

29. 1.Narratives compel
2.Creativity for everyone
3.Role playing
4.Can be very low cost
AdvantagesAdvantages

30. 1.Time consuming
2.Can be costly
3.May seem too touchy-feely, too
speculative
CostsCosts

31. 1.Role playing
2.Simpler: how does your life change?
3.Group or individual/small group
creation
How to use?How to use?

32. 1.Peak Higher Education
2.Health Care Nation
3.Tutor me, Siri
4.Renaissance
Sample scenariosSample scenarios

33. Academia
experiences a
serious correction
Peak higher educationPeak higher education

34. The bubble burstThe bubble burst
://research.studentclearinghouse.org/

35. Grad programs checkedGrad programs checked

36. •Demographic decline
•Accelerated prices + sunk costs
•Low public funding
•Alternatives rising
Perfect stormPerfect storm

37. •Fewer, less crowded campuses
•Very international student body
•Low-cost programs ($10K BA)
How does this impact campuses?How does this impact campuses?

38. •Increased remedial programs
•College generally seen as job
training
How does this impact campuses?How does this impact campuses?

39. More alternatives:
 Maker movement expands
 More DIY learning, unschooling
How does this impact learning?How does this impact learning?

40. •Vocational tech classes are widespread in
K-12
•Apprenticeships are accepted in career
paths
•Colleges have always been transnational

41. Medical sector grows
into leading US
industry
 45% of GDP
II:II: Health care nationHealth care nation

42. Aging
population
A new economyA new economy

43. • Byzantine finances
• Treatment improvements
• Greater presence in society
• Baumol’s disease
A new economyA new economy

44. • More programs, more people, more
tech
• Increased feminization of student body
• Space sharing w/clinics + hospitals
How does this impact campuses?How does this impact campuses?

45. • Some took premed-themed classes in high
school
• Medical heroes loom as large as sports figures
• Many already familiar with eldercare
practices

46. • Tutoring software
• Commodity and
enterprise
versions
III. Tutor me, SiriIII. Tutor me, Siri

47. • Continuous developments in AI, HCI,
learning science
• Commercial, governmental, academic
projects
• Open education to draw upon
How it happenedHow it happened

48. • Two Cultures implementation
divide
• Boom in CS, robotics departments
• Scholarship battles
Higher education landscape

49. • Further adjunctification
• F2f undergrad, grad enrollments
drop
• Math Emporium model
Higher education landscape

50. • Expanded study halls in high school
• Beloved tutors carried to college, life
• Value humans for eccentricity, style

51. IV. RenaissanceIV. Renaissance

57. Gaming
world

58. • Median age of gamers shoots past 30
• Industry size comparable to music
• Impacts on hardware, software, interfaces,
other industries
• Large and growing diversity of platforms,
topics, genres, niches, players
Gaming as part of mainstream cultureGaming as part of mainstream culture

59. Games
serious,
public, and
political
• Oiligarchy, Molle Industries
• Jetset, Persuasive Games
• The Great Shakeout, California
• DimensionM, Tabula Digita

60. Classroom and courses
 Curriculum content
 Delivery mechanism
 Creating games
Peacemaker, Impact Games
Revolution (via Jason Mittell)

61. Classroom and courses
 Curriculum content
 Delivery mechanism
 Creating games
Peacemaker,
Impact Games
Revolution (via
Jason Mittell)

62. Game studies as academic fieldGame studies as academic field
•Joost Raessens and Jeffrey Goldstein, eds,
Handbook of Computer Game Studies (MIT, 2005)
•Frans Mayra, An Introduction to Game Studies (Sage,
2008)
•Pat Harrigan and Noah Wardrip-Fruin, eds. Third
Person: Authoring and Exploring Vast Narratives (MIT,
2009)

64. Use games to impact society

65. •Changes in hardware, software
•Part of undergraduate life
•Learning content, both informal and
formal
•Career paths
Some impacts on campusesSome impacts on campuses

66. • Accreditation: drives project-based, studio-style
pedagogy
• Libraries: rare and/or smaller
• Professional development: distance, DiY
• Faculty multimedia production is the norm
• Both sides of the API
Higher education landscape:

67. •War on IP rages
•Nostalgia waves for old media
•Competing storytelling
schools

68. • Most students identified with one+ game
characters in K-12
• Leading game developers are as well known
as movie directors
• Most of their work and school is gamified

69. 1.Peak Higher Education
2.Health Care Nation
3.Tutor me, Siri
4.Renaissance
How does your life change?How does your life change?

70. 1.Select one trend
2.Build a world around it
A.Think STEEP
B. Think campuses
C. Imagine your students
EXERCISE 1EXERCISE 1

71. 1.Pick the most unstable, hard to predict trend.
2.Describe its polar extreme possibilities.
3.Pick another trend.
4.Do #2 on it.
EXERCISEEXERCISE

72. Each trend
one axis
EXERCISE

73. What is your current futuring capacity?
•Individuals
•Practices
•Local resources
6. Back to campus

74. What are your external resources?
•Collaborations
•Online
•Professional organizations
6. Back to campus

75. •Support futures-oriented people
•Try out one of these methods
•Hold planning/vision sessions
•Share news, fiction
How to develop

76. •Ad hoc or formal group?
•“ “ “ “ process?
•Partner locally
•“ externally
How to develop

77. 1. Introductions
2. Delphi method
3. Environmental scanning
4. Trend analysis
5. Scenarios
6. Implementation in your organization
Plan for the workshopPlan for the workshop

78. http://bryanalexander.orghttp://bryanalexander.org
bryan.alexander@gmail.combryan.alexander@gmail.com
http://twitter.com/bryanalexanderhttp://twitter.com/bryanalexander