My materials for a talk to the New York Libraries Association in October 2015.

1. LibrariesLibraries
in thein the
Teeth ofTeeth of
ChangeChange
NYLA
-
October 2015

2. Four parts
1. Education
contexts
2. Technolog
y
3. Education
meets
technolog
y

3. 3

4. Not a
librarian,
but a
shameless
fanboy
4

5. ETH Zurich: “new ways to write [to] and read DNA”
http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/nova/next/physics/reed-solomon-codes/

6. How to get at the future whileHow to get at the future while
avoiding Black Swans?avoiding Black Swans?

7.  Monthly
environmental
scan report
 Trends
identified,
tested,
projected
Part 1: present future trendsPart 1: present future trends

9. Education contexts: trendsEducation contexts: trends
Education systems
 Reform movements (K-12, higher
ed) continue
 Rising student debt ($1.3 trillion)
 Alternative certification pilots
(competency, badges)

10. Global higher educationGlobal higher education
 More international students
heading to the US
 International higher ed systems
building up
 US campuses expanding
overseas presence

11. Contextual trendsContextual trends
Demographics:
 Youth population shrinkage,
esp. NE + midwest
 Ballooning senior
population…

13. Racial transformationRacial transformation

14. Education contextsEducation contexts
Economics: US labor changes
› manufacturing->service
› 1 job/career->many gigs
› declining participation
› Automation rising

15. Top and bottom vs middleTop and bottom vs middle

17. Enrollment changesEnrollment changes
 Spending less
 Swirling

18. Student populationStudent population
changeschanges
 Majority adult
 Increasing first-
generation
students
 Veterans
 Learning
disabilities
18https://www.flickr.com/photos/un_photo/6708914025/

20. Enrollment decline?Enrollment decline?
 Spending less per family

21. Education trendsEducation trends
Adjunctification rising

22. Bad forecastingBad forecasting
 Inter-institutional
collaboration (except
SUNY)
 Senior admin
compensation
 Intergenerational strife

23. Athletics are doing just fineAthletics are doing just fine

25. Technology trendsTechnology trends
 Rise of
the stacks
 Post-
Snowden
 Hardware
+
networks:
multiple
ecosystems
 Digitizatio

26. Technology trendsTechnology trends
 digital
video
 cloud
migration
continues
 automation
and
artificial
intelligence
 AR
approach

27. New device ecosystemNew device ecosystem
 Android battles iOS
 Wearable computing
 Very small cameras and
computers
 Internet of Things

28. Technology ecosystemTechnology ecosystem

29. Design for mobile *first *

30.  PCs getting
crowded out
 Mouse and
keyboard
declining
 3d printing
mainstreaming
 3d tv dying

31. Technology trendsTechnology trends
social media triumphing

32. 3d printing3d printing
https://www.flickr.com/photos/collegeofsanmateolibrary/15373589050/

33. Away from physical mediaAway from physical media

34. Technology trendsTechnology trends
 crowdfunding growing
 copyright battles continue
 open struggle ongoing
 durability of Moore’s Law
 office versus Web office

35. Did ebooks plateau?Did ebooks plateau?
Nicholas Carr, linked http://bryanalexander.org/2013/08/15/have-ebooks-plateaued/

36. Reading and/versus digitalReading and/versus digital
 How much reading is
being done?
 How is digital reading
different?
 Literacies changing?

37. Weaker tech trendlinesWeaker tech trendlines
 the limits of the Web
 onshoring hardware
production

38. 3. Teaching and learning and tech3. Teaching and learning and tech

39. Teaching and learning and techTeaching and learning and tech
 blended/flipped
classroom
 rise of the net.generation
 distance learning grows
 gaming in education

40. Teaching and learning and techTeaching and learning and tech
 educational
entrepreneurship
 big data and data analytics
develop
 campus digital security
threats growing

41.  Uses of social
media
 Uses of Web
video
 Changes in the
LMS world
 Blended
learning
 Learning
analytics
 Changes in
library role
 Digital
humanities (in
classroom)
 The rise of the
Maker movement

43.  Credit for MOOCs
 STEM vs humanities
 Sustainability?
 xMOOC vs cMOOC
 Liberal arts campuses
entering

44. Changes in scholarshipChanges in scholarship

45.  Open content
 Possible divide growing
between research and teaching
 Changes to the scholarly
publication ecosystem
 Rise of the digital humanities (as
scholarly work)
 The library role

46. Extrapolations:
 Transnational
campuses
 Average student
age: 40
 Hourly faculty
 Privatizing
public
universities
 Hogwarts vs
CCs
What comes next?What comes next?

47. What comes next?What comes next?
 Rich
multimedia
environment
 Some
gamification
 Student as
producer
 Disintegrated
computing as a
service
 Extensive data
analysis,
surveillance,
creativity

48. Which of these
trends are the
most powerful?

49. Which of these
trends are the most
unpredicatble?

50. How does your life change?How does your life change?
1. Peak Higher
Education
2. Health Care Nation
3. Tutor me, Siri
4. Renaissance

51. Peak higher educationPeak higher education
Academia
experiences
a serious
correction

52. The bubble burstThe bubble burst
http://research.studentclearinghouse.org/

53. Grad programs checkedGrad programs checked

54. Perfect stormPerfect storm
 Demographic decline
 Accelerated prices + sunk
costs
 Low public funding
 Alternatives rising

55. How does this impact campuses?How does this impact campuses?
 Fewer, less crowded
campuses
 Very international student
body
 Low-cost programs ($10K
BA)

56. How does this impact campuses?How does this impact campuses?
 Increased remedial
programs
 College generally seen as
job training

57. How does this impact learning?How does this impact learning?
More alternatives:
 Maker movement expands
 More DIY learning,
unschooling

58.  Vocational tech classes are
widespread in K-12
 Apprenticeships are accepted in
career paths
 Colleges have always been
transnational

59. II:II: Health care nationHealth care nation
Medical
sector
grows into
leading US
industry
 45% of GDP

60. A new economyA new economy
Ageing population

61. A new economyA new economy
 Byzantine finances
 Treatment improvements
 Greater presence in society
 Baumol’s disease

62. How does this impact campuses?How does this impact campuses?
 More programs, more people, more
tech
 Increased feminization of student
body
 Space sharing w/clinics + hospitals

63.  Some took premed-themed
classes in high school
 Medical heroes loom as large as
sports figures
 Many already familiar with
eldercare practices

64. III. Tutor me, SiriIII. Tutor me, Siri
 Tutoring
software
 Commodit
y and
enterprise
versions

65. How it happenedHow it happened
 Continuous developments in
AI, HCI, learning science
 Commercial, governmental,
academic projects
 Open education to draw upon

66. Higher education landscape:
 Two Cultures implementation
divide
 Boom in CS, robotics
departments
 Scholarship battles

67. Higher education landscape:
 Further adjunctification
 F2f undergrad, grad enrollments
drop
 Math Emporium model

68.  Expanded study halls in high
school
 Beloved tutors carried to
college, life
 Value humans for eccentricity,
style

69. IV. RenaissanceIV. Renaissance

75. Gaming
world

76. Gaming as part of mainstreamGaming as part of mainstream
cultureculture
 Median age of gamers shoots past 30
 Industry size comparable to music
 Impacts on hardware, software,
interfaces, other industries
 Large and growing diversity of
platforms, topics, genres, niches,
players

77. Games
serious,
public, and
political
• Oiligarchy, Molle Industries
• Jetset, Persuasive Games
• The Great Shakeout, California
• DimensionM, Tabula Digita

78. Classroom and courses
 Curriculum content
 Delivery mechanism
 Creating games
Peacemaker,
Impact Games
Revolution (via
Jason Mittell)

79. •Joost Raessens and Jeffrey Goldstein, eds,
Handbook of Computer Game Studies (MIT, 2005)
•Frans Mayra, An Introduction to Game Studies
(Sage, 2008)
•Pat Harrigan and Noah Wardrip-Fruin, eds. Third
Person: Authoring and Exploring Vast Narratives
(MIT, 2009)
Game studies as academic fieldGame studies as academic field

80. How is gaming used now?How is gaming used now?

81. Use games to impact
society

82. Some impacts on campusesSome impacts on campuses
 Changes in hardware,
software
 Part of undergraduate life
 Learning content, both
informal and formal
 Career paths

83. Interface changesInterface changes
 Gartner: end of the
mouse
 Touch screen (iOS)
 Handhelds (Wii)
 Nothing (Kinect)

84. Higher education landscape:
 Accreditation: drives project-based,
studio-style pedagogy
 Libraries: rare and/or smaller
 Professional development: distance,
DiY
 Faculty multimedia production is the
norm
› Both sides of the API

85.  War on IP rages
 Nostalgia waves for old
media
 Competing storytelling
schools

86.  Most students identified with
one+ game characters in K-12
 Leading game developers are as
well known as movie directors
 Most of their work and school is
gamified

87. How does your life change?How does your life change?
1. Peak Higher
Education
2. Health Care Nation
3. Tutor me, Siri
4. Renaissance

88. http://bryanalexander.orghttp://bryanalexander.org
bryan.alexander@gmail.combryan.alexander@gmail.com
http://twitter.com/bryanalexanderhttp://twitter.com/bryanalexander