The AIB Amárach Recovery Indicator November 2010 Results document provides the following information: 1) The Recovery Indicator, which tracks Ireland's economic cycle, fell further in November 2010, returning to levels last seen in April 2009 when the indicator began, reflecting declining confidence in economic recovery. 2) A survey of 1,000 Irish adults found that perceptions of the current economic situation and outlook for recovery worsened, with financial sentiment indicators like spending, saving, debt, and borrowing also declining. 3) Measures of emotions like stress, worry, and unhappiness from the survey increased from April 2009 levels, suggesting more negative moods among the population.

1. The AIB Amárach Recovery Indicator
November 2010 Results
© Amárach Research 2009

2. 2
Timing Recovery
• All recessions end in recovery – so will this one
• The biggest forecasting challenge is timing:
when do we know the recession is over and
recovery has started?
• Amárach Research has developed the
Recovery Indicator to help us track the
economic cycle more closely
• This report summarises the Recovery
Indicator results for April 2009 (when it began)
to November 2010
• The fieldwork was conducted on 22nd to 30th
November 2010

3. 3
A Matter of Measurement
• Every month we survey a representative sample of 1,000 adults – split 850 online and
150 face-to-face to ensure coverage of the total population – and ask them to tell us
which statement ‘best describes the economic situation in Ireland right now’
• Each statement corresponds to a different stage in the economic cycle

4. 4
A Matter of Measurement
• November saw a further fall in confidence about the prospects for recovery, returning to
levels last seen in April 2009 when the series began.

5. 5
• Using the answers to the survey we have created the Recovery Indicator, which ranges
from 0 to 100 (0 = worsening recession; 100 = back to peak).
• Any build in positivity has been eroded with the scoring now going back to April 2009.

6. 6
Recovery Outlook 1

7. 7
Recovery Outlook 2

8. 8
Financial Sentiment Indicators from the ARI Survey
Percent of adults who agree with each statement: October 2009 and November 2010
Impact on:
• Spending
• Saving
• Debt
• Borrowing
# #
#
* ‘a new house’ in 2009
# Question first asked in October 2009

9. 9
The Mood of the Nation 1
Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday?
April 2009 to November 2010

10. 10
The Mood of the Nation 2
Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday?
April 2009 to November 2010

11. 11
Amárach Contact Details
Gerard O’Neill - Chairman
Amárach Research
11 Kingswood Business Centre
Citywest Business Campus
Dublin 24
T. (01) 410 5200
E. gerard.oneill@amarach.com
W. www.amarach.com
B. www.amarach.com/blog